💥 The 25 Fastest-Growing Jobs, AI’s Next Phase, and Small caps crushing large caps
EXPLAINED: JPMorgan expects no 2026 rate cuts, Jobs growth stalls, Gold keeps climbing, Small caps vs. large caps, and America's 25 fastest-growing jobs
👋 Good afternoon my friend and thanks for joining 108,000 subscribers who trust this newsletter to get smarter with money, investing, and the economy! My goal is simple: Make it easy for you to connect the dots on the economy, markets, and investing (in 15 minutes or less!)
📬 In today's issue:
Part I - Markets:
1. Market Update & Analysis
2. Important Finance News
3. Chart of the Day
Part II - Investing:
4. Insider Trades
5. Top Performing Stocks
6. Fear & Greed Analysis
7. Technical AnalysisEach issue takes a few hours to write and research so please help us and:
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(1) Market Update & Analysis
📈 Everything You Need to Know (in 60 seconds):
Small caps are crushing it – The Russell 2000 just outperformed the S&P 500 for 11 straight days (longest streak in 36 years), climbing 7.1% in 2026 so far. Small caps are trading at a 20% discount to large caps, the cheapest they’ve been in 50 years.
Alphabet joins the $4 trillion club – Google’s parent company hit this milestone after landing a massive deal with Apple. Gemini will now power Siri’s AI upgrades, and Alphabet just launched a Universal Commerce Protocol that could revolutionize online shopping.
Job growth hit the brakes – December added only 50,000 jobs (way below the 73,000 expected). For all of 2025, the U.S. created just 584,000 jobs, the weakest year since 2010 (excluding pandemic). Healthcare basically carried the entire labor market.
Gold keeps climbing – The precious metal rallied over 60% in 2025 and just keeps going. Europe’s markets are hitting fresh all-time highs too (Stoxx 600, FTSE 100, TSX all at records).
Trump’s tariff threats escalate – A 10% tariff on eight European countries starts February 1st over the Greenland dispute. Denmark and allies are pushing back hard, with potential $108 billion in retaliatory tariffs on the table.
AI is everywhere – OpenAI announced ads coming to ChatGPT for the first time. Claude Code went viral as non-coders built entire programs. Alphabet’s AI wins are making it Wall Street’s new darling.
💡 Andrew’s Analysis:
Here’s something most people miss: the biggest opportunities in markets happen when everyone’s looking in the wrong direction.
Right now, Wall Street’s obsessed with the Magnificent 7 tech stocks. But this week’s action tells a different story. Small-cap stocks just had their longest winning streak against large caps in over three decades. Let that sink in.
Why small caps matter:
During my years on Wall Street, I watched this pattern repeat: when the Fed cuts rates and the economy keeps growing, small stocks typically destroy large caps. We’re in that exact setup right now. Small companies are trading at a 20% discount to large caps, the steepest gap in half a century. Think about that – you’re getting growth at bargain prices.
Here’s the psychology behind it (and why it creates opportunity): Big companies already have massive market caps. How much higher can Apple or Microsoft really go? Small caps, on the other hand, can double or triple in size without making headlines. Plus, they’re too cheap for AI infrastructure investments, so they’re not burning cash like the hyperscalers.
The Alphabet situation reveals something crucial:
When Apple (the second most valuable company on earth) essentially admits defeat and outsources its AI to Google, that’s not just news. That’s a market inflection point. Alphabet spent 65% less on AI infrastructure than its peers, yet it’s winning. This proves something I’ve been saying for months: efficiency beats spending in the AI race.
If you listened when I talked about fiscal responsibility mattering more than hype a few months ago, you saw this coming. Alphabet’s now the world’s second-most-valuable company, surpassing Apple for the first time since 2019.
What to do with this info:
Consider rebalancing toward value and small caps – Not abandoning tech, but diversifying into overlooked areas. History shows small caps can run for years once they get momentum.
Watch the AI efficiency players – Companies using AI to cut costs (like Walmart’s drone delivery) could see expanding margins. That means higher stock prices.
Don’t ignore the job market warning signs – Only 584,000 jobs created in all of 2025. Healthcare added 405,000, meaning without nurses and doctors, we basically lost jobs everywhere else. This isn’t normal. It’s a “hiring recession” that could hit consumer spending.
The bigger picture:
All this news link together. Weak job growth + AI replacing workers + small caps rallying + gold surging = investors are hedging their bets. They’re moving away from expensive tech monopolies and spreading risk. Gold hitting all-time highs tells you people don’t trust traditional assets right now.
And here’s the geopolitical wildcard: Trump’s Greenland tariff threats could spark a trade war with Europe. Eight NATO allies are preparing $108 billion in counter-tariffs. This isn’t hypothetical anymore – it starts February 1st. Trade wars kill growth, boost inflation, and make the Fed’s job impossible.
My framework:
Think of your portfolio in thirds: one-third in proven large caps, one-third in emerging opportunities (small caps, international), and one-third in protection (bonds, gold, cash). When markets get this choppy and unpredictable, diversification isn’t boring – it’s survival.
My takeaway: Small caps and AI efficiency plays could be your best opportunities this year, but keep hedges in place because policy uncertainty is off the charts.
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(2) Important Finance News
In this issue we analyze:
(1) Small Caps Continue Outperforming Major Indexes
(2) The Labor Market Is Stuck
(3) America's 25 Fastest-Growing Jobs
(4) Winners and Losers of the AI Trade1️⃣ Small Caps Continue Outperforming Major Indexes
The Russell 2000 is on track to beat the S&P 500 for the second consecutive week, marking 11 straight trading sessions of outperformance.
Here’s what nobody’s telling you: this might be the start of something huge. Wall Street has called for a small-cap rally approximately 50 times since 2020 (okay, maybe not exactly 50, but you get the point). They keep being wrong.
But this time feels different. Small-cap stocks are trading at one of their steepest discounts to large caps in 50 years, according to Janus Henderson. Yet their earnings are growing at basically the same rate as large caps. Translation: you’re getting similar growth for 20% less money.
The catch? All the AI magic powering the market lives in large caps. For small companies, investing in AI is too expensive and too risky. They can’t compete with Microsoft’s $80 billion AI budget.
What this means long-term:
If the economy keeps growing and rates keep falling, small caps could run for 18-24 months. That’s the historical pattern. But if we slip into recession or AI suddenly starts generating massive profits (proving the big tech spending was justified), small caps will get crushed.
My advice: Don’t bet it all on small caps, but don’t ignore them either. A 10-20% allocation makes sense if you believe the economy stays strong.
2️⃣ The Labor Market Is Stuck
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added only 50,000 jobs in December, far below expectations of 73,000. For all of 2025, total job creation was just 584,000 – the weakest year outside a recession since 2003.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, but that’s actually hiding a bigger problem.
When I worked in finance, we had a saying: “Don’t trust the headline, read the footnotes.” The footnote here is that healthcare and social assistance added 713,000 jobs last year. Without those sectors, the private sector basically added zero jobs. Manufacturing lost 65,000 jobs. The federal government shed 277,000 positions.
Even worse: worker compensation as a share of GDP hit its lowest level since 1947. Companies are producing more with fewer workers, pocketing the difference as profits.
Why this matters:
A stuck labor market means wage growth slows, spending decreases, and eventually, corporate earnings take a hit. The gap between job openings and people actually getting hired has shrunk to almost zero. That’s typically what happens right before a recession.
But here’s the twist: The Fed might keep rates higher for longer because unemployment is still low. JPMorgan now expects no rate cuts in 2026 and possibly a rate hike in 2027. That would be a disaster for stocks.
The long-term implication:
If AI keeps replacing workers without creating new jobs, you’re looking at a structural shift in how the economy works. Fewer jobs = less consumer spending = slower growth = lower stock prices. Unless AI creates entirely new industries (like the internet did), we’re headed for a rough patch.
My advice: Build a bigger cash cushion. If the labor market cracks, you want dry powder to buy stocks at lower prices. Also, focus on companies in essential sectors (healthcare, utilities, food) that can weather a consumer spending slowdown.
3️⃣ America’s 25 Fastest-Growing Jobs
LinkedIn released its annual Jobs on the Rise, and the results tell a fascinating story about where the economy is heading.
The top spot? AI engineers. No surprise there. But the real story is buried in the middle of the list: founders, independent consultants, and strategic advisors all made the ranking. That’s code for “people are giving up on traditional employment.”
The pattern:
When “founder” becomes one of the fastest-growing job titles, it means the traditional labor market isn’t working. People aren’t starting companies because they have brilliant ideas – they’re doing it because they can’t find stable, well-paying jobs.
Also notable: data annotators (the people who label data for AI models) made the list. These are gig workers making $15-20 an hour doing repetitive tasks. That’s the “AI economy” politicians promised? Low-wage, no-benefits contract work?
The winners and losers breakdown:
Winners: Healthcare workers (psychiatric nurse practitioners, healthcare reimbursement specialists). AI-adjacent roles (engineers, researchers, consultants). Sales roles (because companies still need revenue).
Losers: Anyone in a job that AI can easily replicate. Manufacturing workers. Traditional office jobs that don’t require specialized skills.
What this means for you:
If your job involves doing the same task repeatedly, you’re at risk. If your job requires judgment, creativity, or human connection, you’re safe for now.
My advice: Learn AI tools relevant to your industry. You don’t need to become a programmer – you need to understand how to use AI to make yourself 10x more productive. The people who get laid off are the ones who resist change.
4️⃣ Winners and Losers of the AI Trade
The infrastructure phase is over – now it’s all about who can actually make money from AI.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company crushed earnings, with revenue up 20% and profits jumping 35%. The stock rallied 4.49%, dragging the entire chip sector higher. But here’s the interesting part: memory storage stocks like Sandisk and Western Digital rallied even harder.
Why memory matters:
AI models need to remember things. If ChatGPT forgets your conversation the moment you close the tab, it’s useless. Memory chips are the bottleneck. Companies like Micron Technology are growing revenue at nearly 100% while trading at only 8 times earnings. That’s absurdly cheap for that kind of growth.
The losers:
Cooling companies just got destroyed. Nvidia announced a new chip this week that doesn’t need cooling fans or liquid systems. Companies that make cooling equipment saw their stocks drop. That’s what disruption looks like in real-time.
Also struggling: AI companies burning cash without caring about efficiency. OpenAI is having what analysts call a “code red moment” because Google’s Gemini runs so much more efficiently.
The bigger picture:
During my time on Wall Street, I learned that the second phase of any technology boom is always about monetization. The first phase (2022-2024) was about building infrastructure. The second phase (2026 and beyond) is about proving you can make money from it.
Alphabet is winning because it’s spending less and earning more. Microsoft is losing ground because it’s spending massively with unclear returns. Apple gave up entirely and is now paying Google to do its AI work.
My advice:
If you own AI stocks, ask yourself: “Is this company spending responsibly?” If the answer is no, consider taking profits. The market is about to punish cash burners.
Also, don’t ignore old-economy companies using AI to cut costs. Walmart using AI for drone delivery isn’t sexy, but it improves margins. That’s what actually matters.
💡 Andrew’s Analysis:
The connecting theme across all these stories:
We’re witnessing a massive rebalancing. Small caps are rallying while big tech cools off. Job growth is concentrated in healthcare while tech companies lay people off. AI is moving from “spend everything” to “show me the money.” Gold is surging as confidence in traditional assets weakens.
This is what transitions look like. The old playbook (buy big tech, hold forever) isn’t working anymore. You need to be more thoughtful, more diversified, and more willing to look in overlooked corners of the market.
The lesson? Markets reward efficiency and punish waste. That was true in every boom I saw during my decade in banking, and it’s true now.
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(3) Chart of the Day
The Shrinking Paycheck
💡 Andrew’s Analysis & Deep Dive:
The chart you’re looking at should make you angry. It shows labor’s share of GDP – basically, how much of America’s economic output goes to workers through wages and benefits.
In the third quarter of 2025, that number hit 53.8%. The lowest level since the government started tracking this data in 1947.
Let me break down what this means: when you produce $100 worth of value for your company, you’re taking home $53.80. Your employer keeps the other $46.20 as profit. Back in 2001, you would’ve taken home $64.20. That’s a 10.4 percentage point drop in just 24 years.
Meanwhile, corporate profit margins after taxes are at 10.9% – the second-highest on record.
Here’s the part that should scare you:
This isn’t about evil corporations (though some are). It’s about productivity. Workers are producing more than ever thanks to technology, but the gains are going entirely to shareholders. In Q3 2025, productivity increased 4.9% – the fastest pace in two years. Companies are making more money with fewer workers.
And here’s the kicker: when AI fully kicks in, this gets worse. Way worse.
The long-term implications:
If workers keep getting a smaller slice, consumer spending eventually collapses. You can’t have a healthy economy where 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending but workers are getting squeezed harder every year. Something has to break.
Some economists think AI will create new jobs to replace the old ones. History supports that – the industrial revolution eliminated farming jobs but created factory jobs. But this time feels different because AI can do both physical and cognitive work.
What this means for investing:
Companies with high profit margins and low labor costs will continue crushing it in the short term. Think tech companies, pharmaceutical firms, and capital-intensive businesses that don’t need many workers.
But long-term, you want to own companies that will survive a consumer spending slowdown. That means essential goods (food, healthcare) and services that can’t be replaced by AI (skilled trades, personal services).
The personal finance angle:
This chart is why I keep saying you can’t rely on salary growth anymore. Your wages won’t keep pace with inflation or productivity. You need income from assets – stocks, real estate, side businesses.
The old model was: get a good job, work hard, get raises, retire comfortably. That model is dead. The new model is: get a job to cover expenses, build assets that generate passive income, and don’t expect your employer to make you wealthy.
My advice:
Invest aggressively – If labor is getting squeezed, capital is winning. You want to be on the capital side of that equation. Max out your 401(k), invest in index funds, buy dividend stocks.
Develop skills that can’t be automated – AI can write code and answer questions, but it can’t negotiate complex deals or build trust with clients. Focus on uniquely human skills.
Consider entrepreneurship or side hustles – If your primary income is capped, you need secondary income sources. Remember, “founder” was one of the fastest-growing job titles this year.
Don’t wait for companies or politicians to fix this – They won’t. Or they can’t. Either way, you’re on your own. Plan accordingly.
The uncomfortable truth:
This trend has been happening for 25 years, through Republican and Democratic administrations, through bull markets and recessions, through periods of high and low unemployment. It’s not political – it’s structural.
Technology makes workers more productive, which should mean higher wages. But instead, companies are capturing the entire productivity gain as profit. And with AI accelerating, this will get more extreme.
You can complain about it, or you can position yourself to benefit from it. I’d recommend the latter.
The bottom line: The American worker is getting squeezed, but the American investor is doing great. Make sure you’re in both categories.
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(4) Insider Trades from Billionaires, Politicians, and CEOs:
When people with deep knowledge, such as politicians who set policy, executives who run the company, or legendary investors, put their own money on the line, it sends a powerful signal. Pay attention.
This week, we analyze:
(1) Senator Markwayne Mullin
(2) Agree Realty $ADC(1) Senator Markwayne Mullin
Senator Markwayne Mullin, a Republican from Oklahoma, just made a big bet on Big Tech. Filed on January 16th, the Senator purchased between $100,000-$250,000 in each of five major technology stocks: Alphabet $GOOGL, Microsoft $MSFT, Amazon $AMZN, Nvidia $NVDA, and Apple $AAPL. All trades occurred on December 28th.
Here’s what makes this interesting: Mullin sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee, giving him insight into defense technology contracts and government AI initiatives. His timing is notable too. Alphabet just hit $4 trillion in market cap after landing that massive Apple deal for Gemini AI. Microsoft continues dominating enterprise AI with its OpenAI partnership. Amazon’s cloud business (AWS) is printing money from AI infrastructure demand. Nvidia remains the undisputed king of AI chips. And Apple, despite lagging in AI, just admitted it needed Google’s help with Siri.
The pattern here? Mullin’s betting the AI infrastructure buildout continues, despite valuations looking stretched. When a Senator drops potentially $1.25 million across the Magnificent 5 (minus Meta and Tesla), he’s either very bullish or very informed. Maybe both.
(2) Agree Realty $ADC
Agree Realty $ADC attracted a $1,696,080 purchase from Executive Chairman Richard Agree on January 9th (filed January 12th). He bought 24,000 shares at $70.67, boosting his position by 4% to 660,075 shares.
Agree Realty is a real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in retail properties. When a real estate exec buys this much stock, it usually signals they believe interest rates have stabilized and their property values are about to climb. With interest rates potentially stabilizing and retail showing surprising resilience, the executive chairman is betting on income-producing real estate.
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(5) Top Performing Stocks
1. ImmunityBio $IBRX up +40% on Thursday 1/16
2. Critical Metals $CRML up +33% on Tuesday 1/14
3. Beam Therapeutics $BEAM up +22% on Monday 1/12
4. AST SpaceMobile $ASTS up +14% on Thursday 1/16
5. Talen Energy $TLN up +12% on Wednesday 1/15
6. Novo Nordisk $NVO up +9% on Thursday 1/161) ImmunityBio $IBRX up +40% on Thursday 1/16
ImmunityBio jumped 40% this week after the biotech company issued upbeat guidance for Anktiva, its bladder cancer treatment. This is massive. The company’s now projecting strong commercial uptake, which validates its entire platform. Bladder cancer affects over 80,000 Americans annually, and current treatment options are limited. When a small biotech surges 40% on guidance alone (not even actual sales data), it means Wall Street believes this drug could be a blockbuster. The risk? Biotech stocks are volatile. One failed trial or regulatory setback, and you’re down 50% overnight. But the reward potential here is enormous if Anktiva delivers on its promise.
2) Critical Metals $CRML up +33% on Tuesday 1/14
Critical Metals rallied 33% after reporting strong drilling results from its Greenland project. Yes, that Greenland. The rare-earth miner is literally sitting on valuable deposits in the same territory Trump wants to acquire. Rare-earth metals are essential for AI chips, electric vehicles, and defense technology. China controls 70% of global production, making Greenland’s deposits strategically critical. The company’s timing couldn’t be better. With geopolitical tensions rising and the U.S. desperate to secure rare-earth supply chains, Critical Metals just became a national security play. This is speculation at its finest, but sometimes geopolitics creates massive opportunities.
3) Beam Therapeutics $BEAM up +22% on Monday 1/12
Beam Therapeutics jumped 22% after announcing an agreement with the FDA on a potential accelerated approval pathway for BEAM-302, its lead genetic disease treatment. This is huge for gene-editing companies. The FDA essentially told Beam, “We see a path forward.” That dramatically reduces regulatory risk and pulls forward the commercial timeline. Gene editing is still early, but when the FDA signals willingness to fast-track approval, smart money rushes in. The sector’s been beaten down lately, making Beam’s rally even more significant.
4) AST SpaceMobile $ASTS up +14% on Thursday 1/16
AST SpaceMobile rallied 14% after being named an eligible vendor for the Pentagon’s SHIELD program. This space-based cellular broadband company is building satellite infrastructure to provide phone service anywhere on Earth. Getting Pentagon approval opens massive government contracts. Defense spending on satellite communications is exploding, and AST just got a seat at the table. The stock’s been volatile, but government contracts provide revenue stability that investors crave. This could be the catalyst that takes AST from speculative to legitimate.
5) Talen Energy $TLN up +12% on Wednesday 1/15
Talen Energy climbed 12% on plans to acquire three power plants for $3.5 billion, adding 2.6 gigawatts of natural gas capacity. Here’s why this matters: AI data centers need massive amounts of power. Companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are scrambling to secure energy. Talen’s positioned perfectly. When Trump signals that Big Tech should help pay for new power plants, stocks like Talen rally because they own the infrastructure Big Tech desperately needs. Energy infrastructure might be the most overlooked AI play in the entire market.
6) Novo Nordisk $NVO up +9% on Thursday 1/16
Novo Nordisk rose 9% after UK regulators approved a higher Wegovy dose for obesity patients, and early demand for its weight-loss pill has soared. This is the Ozempic maker, and they’re absolutely dominating the obesity treatment market. The higher dose approval expands their addressable market. The pill (versus injection) is a game-changer because most people hate needles. Novo’s been on an absolute tear, and this rally shows the obesity drug boom isn’t over. If anything, it’s just getting started.
💡 Andrew’s Analysis:
Here’s what nobody’s talking about: the market’s rotating into overlooked sectors where AI and policy changes create opportunities. Everyone’s obsessed with Nvidia and Microsoft, but the real money this week was made in small-cap biotechs and energy infrastructure plays.
The lesson? When sentiment shifts, small stocks with specific catalysts can deliver 20-40% gains in days. You can’t get that from Apple. But you also can’t put your entire portfolio into these names because they’re volatile as hell.
The framework: keep 70-80% in stable, boring stocks. Use the other 20-30% for calculated bets on overlooked opportunities. That’s how you capture upside without blowing up your account.
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(6) Fear & Greed Analysis
The market’s trending positive with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 62 (Greed), up from 61 yesterday, 53 a week ago, and 45 a month ago.
This is important. A year ago, the index was at 27 (Fear). We’ve gone from extreme fear to solid greed in 12 months. That’s not surprising given the S&P 500 hit fresh all-time highs this week. When stocks rally, sentiment improves. It’s that simple.
But here’s what matters: greed at 62 isn’t extreme greed (which would be 75+). This suggests the rally has room to run before hitting mania levels. Think of it like a pressure gauge. We’re in the “caution zone” but not the “danger zone” yet.
During my decade on Wall Street, I watched this pattern repeat: greed builds slowly, then accelerates into euphoria right before crashes. We’re not there yet. When your Uber driver starts giving you stock tips and everyone’s talking about crypto at dinner parties, that’s when you worry. We’re not seeing that behavior yet.
What this means long-term: Market momentum tends to feed on itself. As long as greed stays between 55-70, the rally continues. It’s when we hit 80+ that smart money starts heading for the exits. History shows markets can stay greedy for months (even years) before cracking.
My advice: Don’t fight the trend. When the Fear & Greed Index is rising and stocks are hitting new highs, you want to be long. But start building a cash position. Maybe trim 5-10% of your winners and hold that cash for the inevitable pullback. That way, you’re riding the rally while preparing for the turn.
The worst thing you can do is panic and sell everything because “the market feels toppy.” It always feels toppy at all-time highs. The best thing you can do is stay invested but disciplined.
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(7) Technical Analysis
Technical levels matter because they’re where millions of traders have programmed their buy and sell orders. When key levels break, algorithms kick in and magnify moves.
1) S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑
The S&P 500 is trending positive in its technical setup, sitting in a rising trend channel that signals increasing investor optimism. The index closed at 6,940 on Thursday, holding above key support at 6,900. That support level matters because if it breaks, we could see a sharper pullback. But as long as we stay above 6,900, the path of least resistance is higher.
One warning sign: RSI (Relative Strength Index) is showing negative divergence. Translation: the indicator’s pulling back even as prices move higher. That’s usually a signal that momentum is weakening and a correction might be coming. Not a crash. Just a normal, healthy pullback.
2) Tech Stocks QQQ 0.00%↑
The Nasdaq-100 is showing weak positive momentum, sitting at 25,529. It’s in a rising trend channel with support at 25,140 and resistance at 25,800. The index is assessed as “slightly positive” short-term, which basically means “not strong, but not weak either.”
Tech stocks are in a weird spot. AI hype drove them to ridiculous valuations, but now the market wants proof of profits. That’s why you’re seeing rotation into small caps and value stocks. The Nasdaq might grind higher, but the explosive gains are probably over until we get another catalyst.
3) Bitcoin $BTC
Bitcoin is neutral, which is the polite way of saying “it’s going nowhere.” BTC closed at $92,699 after breaking the floor of its rising trend channel. It’s stuck between support at $88,190 and resistance at $96,635. Until it breaks one of those levels decisively, it’s just noise.
Crypto’s correlation with risk assets (tech stocks) remains high. If the S&P keeps rallying, Bitcoin probably follows. But if we get a correction, Bitcoin gets hit twice as hard. The “digital gold” narrative died when Bitcoin started trading like a leveraged Nasdaq ETF.
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Amazing newsletter Andrew, keep them coming!