💥 INFLATION Is Back, GDP Dropped, The Fed May Hike Again, and What Happens Next

Explaining the biggest economic shifts this week and what they mean

Apr 14, 2026

Warren Buffett once said the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

This week tested every ounce of patience you have.

Inflation jumped to 3.3%. GDP nearly flatlined at 0.5%. The Fed is suddenly talking about raising rates again. And over 60,000 Americans lost their jobs in March.

If you’re feeling confused, you’re not alone.

But here’s what most people miss: the loudest headlines almost always hide the clearest opportunities.

During my years on Wall Street, I learned that markets don’t reward those who react fastest. They reward those who understand what’s actually happening beneath the noise.

This newsletter cuts through the fear. You’ll learn exactly what this week’s data means.

This week's issue is one of the most important I've written: we cover the hottest inflation reading in two years, the Fed's surprise shift toward rate hikes, the GDP collapse to 0.5%, 60,000+ job cuts driven by AI, and why Q1 earnings could flip the script on everything investors think they know right now.

📬 In today’s newsletter, we’ll look at:

Part I - Markets & Economy:
1. Update, Analysis, and Outlook
2. Important Finance News
3. Chart of the Day and Deep Dive
Part II - Investing Research:
4. Insider Trades
5. Top Stocks Right Now
6. Today’s Trade
7. Fear & Greed Analysis (Market Sentiment)
8. Macro Technical Analysis & Predictions
Part III - Tips & Advice:
9. Advice & Recommendations
10. Final Thoughts
11. Your Questions Answered

A message from 9fin:

Get ahead of the market shift most investors won’t see coming

The Middle East conflict isn’t just a geopolitical event. It’s a credit event.

9fin brought together senior analysts from BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and Société Générale to unpack exactly what’s happening.

You’ll walk away knowing where the real opportunities (and risks) are forming right now.

Watch the free briefing now.

Watch Now

Part I - Markets & Economy

(1) Update, Analysis, and Outlook

📈 Everything You Need to Know (in 1 minute):

Inflation hit its hottest reading in two years. March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year (up from 2.4% in February), driven almost entirely by energy. Gas prices surged 21% in a single month, the biggest monthly spike in 59 years. Core inflation (which strips out food and energy) stayed calm at 2.6%.

GDP nearly flatlined. U.S. economic growth collapsed from 4.4% to just 0.5% in Q4 2025, far below the expected 2.8%.

Jamie Dimon issued a major warning. In his annual shareholder letter, the JPMorgan CEO flagged war-driven energy shocks, rising debt levels, private credit risks, and the possibility that slowly rising inflation becomes “the skunk at the party” — pushing rates higher and asset prices lower.

AI-driven layoffs surged. U.S. employers cut over 60,000 jobs in March, with tech firms like Dell prioritizing AI investment over human capital, particularly in coding roles.
Helium prices more than doubled. Iranian strikes hit Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, knocking out roughly a third of global helium supply. Air Products $APD climbed ~6% as a direct beneficiary of tighter supply.
Anthropic's new AI model spooked Wall Street. Claude Mythos triggered an emergency meeting between the Fed, Treasury, and the CEOs of America's five largest banks over its ability to detect cybersecurity vulnerabilities at a scale and speed no human team can match.

💡 Andrew’s Analysis & Advice:

The markets that look the most confusing on the surface are almost always the most readable underneath. You just need to find the thread that ties everything together. This week, that thread is the Strait of Hormuz.

One waterway, a thousand consequences.

When peace talks collapsed in Islamabad and Trump announced a naval blockade, it wasn’t just a geopolitical headline. It was a market event with real, compounding consequences for every corner of the economy.

Oil is the cost of doing almost everything. It powers the trucks that ship your groceries, the planes that carry your passengers, the factories that make your products. When oil prices spike 40% (where they stand since the war started in late February), that cost bleeds into every other price in the economy, first gas, then airfare, then groceries, then everything else.

This is why March’s CPI report matters far more than the 3.3% headline suggests. Gas prices surging 21% in one month accounted for nearly three-quarters of the entire inflation increase. But that’s the first wave. The second wave (higher airfares, higher food prices, more expensive goods) hasn’t hit yet. Airlines haven’t fully passed jet fuel costs through to passengers. Food manufacturers are just starting to deal with fertilizer shortages. The full inflationary impact of this war is still in transit.

I watched the Russia-Ukraine energy shock play out exactly this way in 2022. Gas surged first. Then airfares followed weeks later. Then grocery prices followed those. The same playbook is running now. The question isn’t whether inflation gets worse. It’s how much worse.

Jamie Dimon’s real warning.

Dimon’s annual letter got a lot of attention this week, but most people focused on the colorful animal metaphors and missed the actual signal. His core warning was this: interest rates are like gravity on asset prices. If inflation keeps creeping up rather than down, rates go higher. Higher rates mean lower stock valuations, more expensive mortgages, tighter corporate credit, and slower growth. That’s not a scenario, it’s a sequence.

He also highlighted something most investors aren’t talking about: the $1.8 trillion private credit market. Weakening lending standards and poor transparency in this market could drive higher-than-expected losses when the credit cycle turns, especially if rates rise. That’s a hidden risk sitting just off most investors’ radar screens.

The AI story is running in parallel, and it’s getting louder.

While geopolitics dominates, a second story is quietly unfolding. Amazon is committing ~$200 billion in AI capex this year. Meta just poured $35 billion into CoreWeave. Intel hit a five-year high after landing major AI partnerships with Google and Elon Musk. And Anthropic’s Claude Mythos model is now so capable that it triggered a closed-door emergency meeting with the CEOs of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo.

This level of investment doesn’t happen on speculation. It happens when CEOs see the future clearly enough to sign billion-dollar contracts with confidence. The IT sector now trades at a lower P/E than consumer staples, industrials, and consumer discretionary, despite expected earnings growth of 44% vs. just 12% for the broader S&P 500. That gap between price and earnings power is the kind of disconnect that doesn’t stay open forever.

If I told you 10 years ago that you could buy the most profitable, fastest-growing sector in the market at a cheaper valuation than companies that make cereal and laundry detergent, you’d think it was a trick. Right now, it’s a fact.

My advice:

Here’s my framework for navigating this current environment:

Financials are the most undervalued major sector. Bank stocks trade at roughly 12x forward earnings, a 40% discount to the S&P 500’s 20x. With Q1 earnings growth in financials expected to jump from 11% to 20%, that discount is hard to justify.

Buy beaten-down quality tech selectively. Goldman Sachs, Morningstar, and Deutsche Bank all point to names like Microsoft $MSFT, Alphabet $GOOGL, and Amazon $AMZN as attractively priced after recent AI-driven pullbacks. The AI buildout is a decade-long theme, not a quarterly trade.
Don’t panic out of equities. Q1 earnings growth is projected at 16-19%, the best in four years. Earnings are what ultimately drive stock prices over the long run. Headlines create swings. Earnings create direction.
Energy and chemicals benefit directly from the Strait disruption. Domestic U.S. producers and chemical companies like Air Products $APD, LyondellBasell, and Dow are filling a global supply vacuum. Stay long these names as long as the Strait remains restricted.

Reduce exposure to rate-sensitive assets. If the Fed hikes even once, it will shock a market that hasn’t priced it in. Long-duration bonds, REITs, utilities, and high-multiple growth names (anything above 40x earnings) are most vulnerable.

The biggest mistake I see investors make in moments like this one is mistaking noise for signal. The noise is the war, the headlines, the fear. The signal is strong earnings growth, a massive AI infrastructure wave, and a market that’s already priced in a lot of the bad news.

Stay alert. Stay selective. And remember: the best buying opportunities almost always arrive disguised as terrible news.

👉 To get smarter with money follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky (and turn on notifications)

(2) Important Finance News

📬 Today we analyze the impacts of:

1) The Inflation Surge Is Just Getting Started
2) Forget Rate Cuts: The Fed Is Now Talking About Hiking Again
3) The Iran War's Hidden Economic Cost
4) Earnings Growth Is on Track for Its Best Quarter in 4 Years
5) AI Is Back, and Smart Money Is Already Positioning

🤔 But first, what do you think the Fed does next?

1. The Inflation Surge Is Just Getting Started

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this week that consumer prices rose 0.9% in March compared to February and 3.3% compared to a year ago. That’s the hottest annual reading since May 2024, up sharply from 2.4% the month before. Energy prices were the culprit. Gas prices surged 21% in a single month, the biggest monthly jump in 59 years of records. Fuel oil jumped 44.2%. Together, energy accounted for nearly three-quarters of the entire CPI increase.

Here’s the part most investors are missing: this report only captured the first wave.

Energy shocks don’t arrive all at once. They move through the economy in a sequence, and the sequence is still early. Airlines, which run on jet fuel, are already raising prices (airfares rose 2.7% in March, and that’s before the full fuel cost pass-through hits). Food manufacturers who rely on nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, much of which is produced in the Gulf region and transported through the Strait, are just starting to feel the squeeze. Grocery prices were flat in March. They won’t be flat much longer.

The historical precedent is clear. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 sent gas prices surging first, then bled into higher airfares, grocery prices, and goods over the following months. The same playbook is unfolding now. The key difference this time: consumers are stretched after five years of rapid price increases and may be far less willing to absorb additional costs without pulling back on spending.

My advice: Budget for higher airfare and grocery costs through at least Q3 of this year. If you hold long-duration bonds, REITs, or high-multiple growth stocks, this data adds real risk to those positions. Energy and commodity-linked companies, domestic manufacturers, and businesses with pricing power remain the clearest beneficiaries of this environment.

2. Forget Rate Cuts: The Fed Is Now Talking About Hiking Again

The Federal Reserve is navigating the most uncomfortable monetary policy environment in years, and minutes from the March 17-18 meeting (released Wednesday) made that crystal clear.

A growing group of Fed officials now believe interest rate hikes might be necessary, not just rate holds. Reuters reported that the minutes showed “some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions,” reflecting the possibility that upward rate adjustments could be appropriate if inflation stays above target.

At January’s meeting, “several” officials were open to hikes. By March, that group had grown larger. That’s a meaningful shift in language, and in Fed-speak, language is policy.

Here’s the bind the Fed is in. If it cuts rates to fight the slowing economy (GDP at just 0.5% in Q4 2025), it risks stoking inflation further. If it hikes rates to crush inflation, it risks tipping a slowing economy into recession. The Fed held its benchmark rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range at the March meeting, but the consensus on future cuts is now shaky. Investors currently expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged well into 2027, a dramatic reversal from the rate-cut expectations of just a few months ago.

Fed officials also raised their 2026 inflation outlook specifically because of the war-related oil shock. And while “many participants” still see rate cuts in their baseline outlook, that base case now hinges on the ceasefire holding and oil prices receding. Neither is guaranteed.

BlackRock’s chief investment strategist noted this week that “markets will look through the energy-driven headline strength and focus on the softer core trend,” suggesting rate cuts remain possible if the conflict resolves. But the conditional nature of that view is the important part. Every positive Fed assumption right now depends on a ceasefire that is, at best, fragile.

My advice: Position for higher rates staying longer than expected. Favor short-duration bonds over long ones. Look at sectors that benefit from rising rates (financials) rather than those hurt by them (real estate, utilities, high-growth tech with stretched valuations). If the Fed does hike even once, it will shock a market that’s priced in cuts, not increases. That gap between expectation and reality is where portfolio damage happens.

3. The Iran War’s Hidden Economic Cost

The two-week ceasefire is holding for now. But don’t mistake a pause for peace. The economic damage from this war is going to outlast any short-term agreement.

The OECD this week raised its inflation forecast for G20 economies to 4% for 2026 (up from 2.8% in December), with the U.S. specifically expected to hit 4.2% this year. The IMF warned it will lower its global growth projection for 2026, citing “permanent losses” from the conflict even if lasting peace is achieved. Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. recession probability to 30%. EY Parthenon put it at 40%. Wilmington Trust said 45%. Moody’s Analytics raised its estimate to 48.6%.

Nearly a coin flip, by some estimates. Let that sink in.

But the deeper story is how the oil shock moves through the global economy. JPMorgan’s head of global commodities research described the disruption as “unfolding sequentially rather than simultaneously, like during COVID,” with “rolling supply disruption moving westward, dictated by shipping times.” Cargoes from the Persian Gulf reach Asia in 10-20 days. Europe in 20-35 days. The U.S. Gulf Coast in 35-45 days. The U.S., as the last stop on the route, hasn’t fully felt the supply crunch yet.

The economic ripples extend far beyond oil. Natural gas disruptions are driving up costs for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer (a third of global supply flows through the Strait), which will hit food prices hard over the next 3-6 months. Iran is charging some ships $2 million per transit through the Strait, an illegal toll that’s keeping traffic below 10% of prewar levels even during the ceasefire. Retailers like H&M and British retailer Next have already warned they’ll pass higher freight and energy costs to consumers.

Even in the best case scenario (lasting peace, Strait fully reopened), analysts estimate it could take up to nine months for petrochemical shipping to normalize. Qatar’s helium supply, hit by Iranian strikes, could take up to five years to recover. The IMF’s warning about “permanent losses” is the key phrase here: some of this economic damage is irreversible.

My advice: Plan for elevated energy, food, and goods prices through at least year-end. Build positions in domestic energy producers, U.S. chemical companies, and defense contractors who benefit from this environment. Stay cautious on consumer-facing businesses that depend on cheap transportation and energy inputs. Keep a higher-than-usual cash buffer as a hedge against rising volatility and continued macro uncertainty.

4. Earnings Growth Is on Track for Its Best Quarter in 4 Years

Here’s the thing about panic: it almost always overshoots.

Right now, retail investors are fleeing equities. Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) dumped roughly $55 billion of U.S. stocks last month and have flipped to a net short position of about $18.4 billion. Baby boomers are drawing down portfolios and moving into cash. Sentiment is at historic lows.

And yet, Q1 earnings season is about to begin, and the fundamental picture is telling a very different story.

Wall Street is forecasting roughly 16% earnings growth for the S&P 500, the strongest in four years. Deutsche Bank is even more optimistic, calling for 19% growth on the back of improving cyclical trends and a weaker dollar (which posted its sharpest quarterly drop in about five years this quarter, a tailwind for U.S. multinationals with overseas revenue).

Among companies that have already issued outlooks, 54% expect to beat expectations, well above the five-year average of 42% and the highest share since 2021. A record number of firms have issued positive revenue guidance for this quarter.

The sector breakdown is worth knowing:

Mega-cap tech and semiconductors are expected to see earnings growth jump to nearly 36%, up from 27.5% last quarter
Financials are expected to rebound from 11% to 20% earnings growth
Industrials should accelerate from 2.8% to 7.9%
Consumer cyclicals may stabilize, with declines narrowing from 7.5% to just 1.6%

When I worked in institutional finance, the pattern I saw repeatedly was this: the loudest fear in markets is almost always concentrated at exactly the wrong moment. Investors were most bearish at the 2009 bottom. Most cautious at the 2020 COVID lows. And most doubtful heading into the strongest earnings recoveries.

My advice: Don’t let today’s headline fear cause you to miss what could be a meaningful positive catalyst over the next 4-6 weeks. Watch financials closely. Bank stocks trading at 12x earnings with 20% projected earnings growth represent genuine value. Watch mega-cap tech for upside surprises driven by AI monetization. And keep this in mind: if earnings come in at 16-19% growth while the market is priced for pessimism, prices move. That’s not a prediction. That’s just math.

5. AI Is Back, and Smart Money Is Already Positioning

April is historically one of the strongest months for the stock market. This year, it’s anything but. And that’s creating some of the most interesting entry points I’ve seen in a while.

With inflation sticky, the Fed’s path unclear, and corporate earnings sentiment shaky, the usual April rebound is nowhere in sight. But within that uncertainty, contrarian opportunities are starting to surface.

The AI trade returned with force this week. Broadcom rebounded sharply after a new chip deal with Google and an expanded Anthropic partnership. Samsung posted blowout Q1 results with profits surging 700% on strong memory demand. Meta launched its new Muse Spark AI model and committed $21 billion more to CoreWeave’s data center infrastructure. Intel, once an also-ran in the AI race, hit a five-year high after landing Google’s AI workload business and a role in Elon Musk’s Terafab project.

Goldman Sachs made the valuation case clearly this week: after the tech sector posted its weakest relative returns in 50 years, the IT sector globally now trades at a lower P/E than consumer discretionary, staples, and industrials, despite expected earnings growth of 44% vs. just 12% for the broader S&P 500. Goldman calls this a record gap between weak stock performance and strong underlying earnings. That’s not a warning. That’s an opportunity for investors willing to think beyond the headlines.

Cybersecurity is emerging as a quiet winner in this environment. Anthropic’s new Project Glasswing is partnering with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks to deploy Claude Mythos for vulnerability detection. Rather than replacing cybersecurity firms, AI is amplifying demand for their services. As AI makes attacks more sophisticated and expands the number of potential attack surfaces, the need for protection grows with it. Shares of CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks are both up meaningfully over the past five days, with multiple analyst upgrades backing the bull case.

Morningstar also identified value in beaten-down tech names like Microsoft $MSFT and Alphabet $GOOGL, where recent AI-driven pullbacks have created entry points at more attractive valuations.

As Terry Sandven of U.S. Bank put it this week: “The wall of worry is under full construction.” History is consistent on what happens next. The investors who lean into fear, with discipline and selectivity, are the ones who capture the most value when the recovery arrives.

My advice:

Build exposure to cybersecurity firms, which are being upgraded across Wall Street right now
Add to beaten-down tech names on continued weakness, particularly those with strong AI exposure
Look at bank stocks as a value play with a near-term earnings season catalyst
Stay defensive on consumer-facing businesses that depend on cheap energy inputs
Keep more cash than usual as a buffer against continued volatility, but don’t sit out entirely

💡 Andrew’s Analysis & Advice:

Here is the big picture. This market is being pulled by two forces at once. One force is inflation, war, rates, and slower growth. The other is earnings, AI, and pockets of real demand. That is why the tape feels so confusing. Both stories are true.

The mistake is thinking you must choose one. You do not. You need to know which sectors can survive both worlds. That usually means firms with strong margins, strong balance sheets, and either pricing power or structural tailwinds. It also means avoiding businesses that need perfect conditions to work.

If you are building wealth in this kind of market, keep this simple. Own quality. Keep cash. Buy dips with a plan, not with hope. And remember that the best opportunities often show up when the macro story is messy but the micro story is still strong.

When geopolitics and inflation collide, fear sells stocks cheap. The fix is boring but proven — own the companies that solve the problems the world cannot ignore.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X/ Twitter; Instagram Threads; or BlueSky (and turn on notifications)

(3) Chart of the Day and Deep Dive

The Great Wealth Transfer Is Here

💡 Andrew’s Analysis & Advice:

Look at this chart carefully. It’s one of the most important economic visuals of the decade.

In the early 2000s, Americans under 55 drove roughly 72% of all U.S. consumer spending. Today, that share has dropped to just 54.7%. Meanwhile, Americans 55 and older have gone from about 28% to 45.3% of consumer spending, nearly doubling their share in just 25 years.

The two lines are converging. At the current rate, they’ll cross for the first time in recorded history.

It’s a complete rewrite of the U.S. economic playbook.

Here’s why it’s happening. Wealth concentrates with age. Americans over 55 now hold 73.7% of all U.S. wealth, up from 56.2% in 2000, according to Federal Reserve data. They own more of the stocks, more of the real estate, more of the businesses. And as the baby boomer generation ages into retirement (roughly 10,000 are turning 65 every single day), they’re shifting from savers to spenders, drawing down portfolios and directing that spending toward healthcare, travel, financial services, and experiences.

What does this mean for investors?

It means the economy is increasingly driven by a generation with completely different spending priorities than the one that built the post-WWII consumer economy. Older Americans don’t buy starter homes. They buy cruises, medications, financial planning services, and experiences. They downsize rather than upgrade. They’re price-conscious on some things and surprisingly generous on others (healthcare, travel, premium experiences).

This shift has already been reshaping markets for years. It explains why healthcare stocks have been structural outperformers. It explains why cruise companies, travel platforms, and wealth management firms carry such strong secular tailwinds. It explains why GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (used disproportionately by an older, wealthier population managing metabolic disease) are one of the hottest investment themes in pharma right now.

But here’s the insight most people miss: this shift also creates a structural drag on certain parts of the economy. Consumer spending driven by older Americans tends to be more defensive, more healthcare-focused, and less growth-oriented than spending by younger cohorts. That could put a long-term ceiling on the kind of consumer-driven growth that fueled markets from the 1980s through the early 2000s. Younger Americans, who are the traditional drivers of discretionary spending growth, now control just 54.7% of consumer spending despite representing the majority of the population. Their share has been in freefall for 25 years. That matters for retailers, fast food companies, entry-level housing, and any brand built around youth culture.

There’s also a wealth transfer dimension worth understanding. As baby boomers age, an estimated $80 trillion in assets will transfer to younger generations over the next 20 years. The firms and platforms best positioned to manage, invest, and guide that transfer will be among the biggest winners of the coming two decades.

My Advice:

Look at healthcare. Aging populations drive demand for pharmaceuticals, medical devices, specialty care, and insurance. This theme has decades of runway.
Look at experience-driven businesses. Cruises, premium travel, dining, and entertainment targeting the 55+ crowd are structural beneficiaries.
Watch wealth management and financial services. With 73% of U.S. wealth in older hands, the companies serving that wealth (not just managing it) will grow.
Be cautious on youth-driven consumer brands. Fast fashion, fast food, and entry-level housing all face structural headwinds as their core consumer base ages out.
Think about the wealth transfer. Fintech, digital investment platforms, and advisors designed to serve younger inheritors are a compelling long-term play.

The chart tells a simple story: America’s economy now moves to the beat of an older drum. The investors who understand this, and position ahead of it, will be positioned correctly for what comes next.

A message from 9fin:

Get ahead of the market shift most investors won’t see coming

The Middle East conflict isn’t just a geopolitical event. It’s a credit event.

9fin brought together senior analysts from BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and Société Générale to unpack exactly what’s happening.

You’ll walk away knowing where the real opportunities (and risks) are forming right now.

Watch the free briefing now.

Watch Now

Part II - Investing Research

4. Insider Trades
5. Top Stocks Right Now
6. Today’s Trade
7. Fear & Greed Analysis (Market Sentiment)
8. Macro Technical Analysis & Predictions

(4) Insider Trades (from Billionaires, Politicians, and CEOs):

When people with deep knowledge, such as politicians who set policy, executives who run the company, or legendary investors, put their own money on the line, pay attention.

1) Microsoft Corp $MSFT

Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) filed two separate purchases of Microsoft Corp $MSFT on April 9, 2026. The first purchase fell in the $50,000-$100,000 range, and the second in the $500,000-$1,000,000 range, bringing his combined investment to a range of $550,000-$1,100,000. That’s a significant, high-conviction bet on one of the most powerful companies in the world.

Microsoft is far more than a software company. It’s the infrastructure of modern business, home to the Azure cloud platform (the world’s second-largest cloud provider), Microsoft 365, LinkedIn, GitHub, and the single largest commercial stake in OpenAI of any company in the world. Copilot, Microsoft’s AI productivity assistant, is being embedded across its entire product ecosystem. And every dollar of AI adoption by enterprise customers runs on top of a platform Microsoft either owns or powers.

What makes Gottheimer’s purchase especially interesting is his committee assignment. He sits on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, which means he receives classified briefings on AI capabilities, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and national security technology. This week, an emergency meeting between the Fed, Treasury, and the CEOs of America’s five largest banks was convened specifically over the cybersecurity capabilities of Anthropic’s Claude Mythos model. The timing of Gottheimer’s Microsoft purchase, just two weeks before that meeting, is worth noting.

With AI and cybersecurity converging as the two dominant technology themes of 2026, buying the company most deeply embedded in AI enterprise software is more than just a great business bet. It’s a directional signal.

Long term, Microsoft’s total addressable market across AI-enhanced enterprise software, cloud infrastructure, and developer tools exceeds $1 trillion. Azure continues to grow fast, enterprise AI adoption is accelerating, and Microsoft’s position at the center of the AI ecosystem gives it pricing power and switching cost advantages that few companies can match.

2) Oscar Health $OSCR

Mark Bertolini, CEO of Oscar Health $OSCR, filed a purchase on April 7, 2026, buying 1,000,000 shares at $11.92, for a total investment of $11,920,000. His personal ownership stake in the company increased by 11%.

Nearly $12 million of his own money. Let that number sink in.

Before joining Oscar as CEO, Bertolini ran Aetna for nearly a decade and negotiated its landmark $70 billion sale to CVS Health. He knows insurance inside and out. When a CEO of that caliber puts almost $12 million of personal capital into a stock trading near $12, at current market prices, it’s one of the loudest insider signals you’ll see.

Oscar Health is a technology-first health insurance company operating primarily in the ACA marketplace. Unlike traditional insurers, Oscar was built from the ground up on a digital platform designed to manage patient risk more efficiently using data and technology. That competitive edge is increasingly valuable as healthcare costs rise and the ACA marketplace grows.

Several structural tailwinds support the bull case. The ACA marketplace is expanding. GLP-1 drug adoption could reduce Oscar’s long-term medical costs if widely taken up by its members (healthier members mean lower claims). And Oscar’s tech stack, which gives it better patient risk visibility than most legacy competitors, makes it an increasingly attractive acquisition target for larger health systems or pharmacy benefit managers looking to build vertically integrated platforms.

A deal, if it came, would almost certainly come at a significant premium to today’s price. Bertolini knows this better than anyone.

3) HMH Holding Inc $HMH

Thomas McGee, CFO of HMH Holding Inc $HMH, filed a purchase on April 6, 2026, buying 50,000 shares at $20.00, for a total investment of $1,000,000. His personal ownership stake increased by 51%.

A 51% increase in personal ownership from a CFO is an unusually loud signal.

CFOs are the most informed insiders at any company. They know exactly where cash flows are heading, what the balance sheet looks like, and what management’s private forecast is for the next 12-18 months. When a CFO increases his own stake by more than half with a seven-figure market purchase, it’s a clear message: insiders believe this stock is worth significantly more than what the market is currently paying.

At $20 per share, this is a smaller-cap company, which means a $1 million purchase carries even more conviction weight than it would at a larger firm. Smaller companies often fly under institutional radar until a catalyst forces the market to reprice them. CFO-level conviction buys at current prices are often precursors to meaningful news flow over the following 3-6 months, whether that’s earnings beats, strategic announcements, or deal activity.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky (and turn on notifications)

(5) Top Stocks Right Now

1) Aehr Test Systems $AEHR up +25.7% on Tuesday 4/8

Aehr Test Systems $AEHR surged +25.7% on Tuesday after a wave of analyst upgrades praised the company’s strengthening bookings pipeline, even as the most recent quarterly results came in below headline expectations.

Aehr makes semiconductor testing equipment, specifically burn-in and test systems for compound semiconductors like silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN). These materials are critical for electric vehicles, solar inverters, data center power management, and industrial equipment, markets that are growing fast and spending big.

The analyst upgrades weren’t noise. Multiple firms pointed to Aehr’s growing order book as a leading indicator of accelerating demand that the most recent quarterly numbers don’t yet fully capture. In semiconductor equipment, bookings today become revenue over the next 1-4 quarters. That’s a forward-looking signal worth respecting.

The AI infrastructure connection matters here more than most people realize. Every AI data center requires massive amounts of power-efficient chips, and the power conversion components inside those systems increasingly rely on SiC and GaN semiconductors, exactly what Aehr’s equipment tests and validates. As hyperscalers pour hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure this year, the downstream demand for Aehr’s testing systems grows with it.

Looking further out, Aehr operates in a niche with very few direct competitors, a durable advantage in a market where technical barriers to entry are high. The total addressable market for compound semiconductor testing is expected to reach several billion dollars by the end of the decade. Aehr has the technology, the customer relationships, and now the analyst momentum. A +25.7% single-day move on upgrades, without a blowout earnings print, tells you institutional investors are buying the multi-year story.

2) STAAR Surgical $STAA up +20.7% on Wednesday 4/9

STAAR Surgical $STAA jumped +20.7% on Wednesday after the company issued a revenue forecast that blew past analyst estimates by a wide margin.

STAAR makes implantable lenses for vision correction, specifically its flagship EVO Implantable Collamer Lens (ICL). Unlike LASIK, which permanently reshapes the cornea, STAAR’s EVO ICL is inserted inside the eye, it’s reversible, produces sharper vision, and works for patients who aren’t LASIK candidates, including those with thin corneas or extreme prescriptions. That differentiation matters in a market where patient choice is increasingly about precision and reversibility.

The EVO ICL is approved in over 100 countries and is seeing strong adoption in Asia, where patient populations are large and awareness is growing. U.S. FDA approval came in 2022, and the domestic market is still in early adoption. When a medical device company issues a blowout guidance raise, it often signals something important: adoption is hitting an inflection point, where awareness, trained providers, and patient demand cross over at the same time.

STAAR’s inflection may still be early, particularly in the U.S.

Longer term, the global vision correction market is a multi-billion dollar opportunity. With aging populations worldwide controlling more wealth and spending (as covered in this week’s Chart of the Day), demand for vision correction products carries strong secular tailwinds. If STAAR continues executing, this could be a meaningful healthcare compounder over the next 5-10 years.

3) Intel $INTC up +11.4% on Tuesday 4/8

Intel $INTC climbed +11.4% on Tuesday, extending one of the most dramatic single-week runs for any major chip company in recent memory. At its peak this week, Intel was up more than 28% over five days, hitting a five-year high.

The catalyst is a convergence of major wins. Intel expanded its partnership with Google, which has relied on Intel processors since its earliest server builds nearly three decades ago. Intel’s new Xeon 6 chips will now power AI training and inference workloads, helping Google scale its AI infrastructure more efficiently. Separately, Elon Musk tapped Intel as the first major chipmaker for his Terafab project, an ambitious initiative targeting 1 terawatt of AI and robotics compute annually (roughly double current U.S. demand).

For context, Intel had spent years losing ground to Nvidia in AI accelerators, AMD in CPUs, and ARM-based competitors across mobile. The narrative was that Intel was an also-ran in the AI era. This week, that narrative cracked.

Xeon chips occupy the data center inference market, where trained AI models run real-time applications, which is separate from and potentially as large as the AI training market where Nvidia dominates. As AI moves from research labs into production deployment at massive global scale, inference compute demand could become one of the largest chip markets in history.

Longer term, Intel’s U.S.-based manufacturing (through Intel Foundry Services) gives it a geopolitical advantage as the U.S. government pushes to reshore semiconductor production. CHIPS Act funding and national security concerns about TSMC’s Taiwan concentration make domestic chip production a growing strategic priority. Intel may be the single biggest structural beneficiary of that trend over the next decade.

4) CoreWeave $CRWV up +10.9% on Thursday 4/10

CoreWeave $CRWV jumped +10.9% on Thursday after securing a multiyear deal with Anthropic to provide the compute power needed to train and run Anthropic’s AI models.

CoreWeave is a specialized cloud infrastructure company built entirely for AI workloads. Its data centers are packed with hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs, making them ideal for the kind of intensive parallel computation that AI model training requires. Unlike general-purpose cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud), CoreWeave is 100% focused on AI compute, which gives it operational and pricing advantages in a market where demand is exploding.

The Anthropic deal is significant on multiple levels. Anthropic is one of the fastest-growing AI labs in the world, with its Claude models deployed across healthcare, finance, defense, and consumer applications at rapidly expanding scale. As Anthropic’s usage grows, so does its compute demand. CoreWeave is now a direct infrastructure partner for that growth.

This deal also comes on top of Meta’s massive commitment to CoreWeave ($14 billion previously plus $21 billion in a new commitment announced this week for a total of $35 billion), giving CoreWeave’s revenue profile extraordinary visibility and durability.

Looking further out, the AI compute market is expected to grow to several hundred billion dollars by the end of the decade. CoreWeave is one of the few pure-play infrastructure companies positioned to capture a meaningful share of that growth, backed by the strongest customer list in AI. Watch for additional large-scale contracts with other AI labs, enterprise customers, and potentially defense clients as Anthropic’s Mythos deployment expands.

💡 Andrew’s Advice:

The AI infrastructure buildout is creating real revenue right now. CoreWeave, Intel, and (indirectly) Aehr Test Systems all benefit directly from the massive wave of AI capital spending hitting the market in 2026. This isn't a future thesis. It's current revenue, current contracts, and current earnings growth.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!

(6) Today’s Trade

The options market is where the smartest traders place their biggest bets. I monitor options flow activity daily.

Schrodinger SDGR 0.00%↑

Schrodinger Inc $SDGR is a computational drug discovery platform that uses physics-based simulations and AI to model how drug molecules behave before running a single lab experiment. Instead of testing thousands of compounds in the real world (an expensive and time-consuming process), Schrodinger’s software can predict molecular behavior with high accuracy, dramatically cutting the number of compounds that need to be physically tested. This is exactly the kind of AI-driven efficiency tool that every major pharma company is actively seeking right now.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are both using AI to compress clinical trial timelines. Eli Lilly just signed a $2.75 billion deal with Insilico Medicine to license ~28 AI-developed drugs. Schrodinger sits at the infrastructure layer of this entire trend, with pharmaceutical clients paying subscription fees to access its simulation platform plus a pipeline of internally developed drug candidates.

The Trade

Notable unusual call activity is emerging in $SDGR, with an approximate 100:1 calls-to-puts ratio, one of the most lopsided setups seen recently in a name of this size. The bulk of the activity is concentrated on the May 15 $12.50 call, purchased at prices between $0.80 and $0.85. Volume on this specific contract is 2,318 versus open interest of just 859, which tells us this is fresh positioning, not existing holders adjusting. New money is moving in with clear bullish intent.

The stock was trading around $11.27 at the time of these trades, making the $12.50 strike slightly out-of-the-money. For these calls to pay off, $SDGR needs to trade above roughly $13.30 (the $12.50 strike plus the ~$0.82 average premium paid) by May 15. That’s roughly an 18% move in about five weeks.

Why Bullish?

A 100:1 call-to-put ratio doesn’t happen randomly. That kind of lopsided positioning, concentrated in medium-sized fresh blocks at the same strike and price point across multiple times during the day, points to someone with real conviction making a directed bet.

The most likely catalysts are company-specific. Schrodinger has its own internal drug pipeline alongside its software revenue. A clinical trial update, a new pharmaceutical partnership, or a licensing deal of the scale Eli Lilly just signed with Insilico Medicine could serve as the near-term catalyst to justify this kind of aggressive positioning.

I’m bullish on this setup. The combination of 100:1 call dominance, clearly fresh positioning (volume far exceeds open interest), and a fundamentally sound company at the center of one of the most powerful investment themes in pharma creates a compelling near-term speculative opportunity.

The risk is equally clear: if no catalyst materializes by May 15, these options expire worthless. Options are high-risk instruments, and this bet requires a company-specific catalyst or broader biotech/AI momentum lift within five weeks.

For investors who prefer the underlying stock over options, $SDGR around $11.27 represents an interesting longer-term entry point given the AI drug discovery tailwind, growing pharma client relationships, and an internal pipeline that’s still underappreciated by the market.

As always, never risk more than you can comfortably afford to lose on speculative options positions.

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(7) Fear & Greed Analysis (Market Sentiment)

How do you cut through the noise and understand what’s really happening? The secret is to look at the feelings people, the actions of investors, and the facts about the economy.

The trend is improving, but fear is still the dominant force in this market.

The Fear & Greed Index came in at 38. This is a meaningful recovery from where we were just weeks ago. One week ago, the reading stood at 23 (Extreme Fear). One month ago, it was 20 (Extreme Fear). One year ago today, it was just 5, practically maximum fear across the entire market.

That’s a substantial improvement in a compressed time period. But don’t mistake a move from Extreme Fear to Fear as a signal that the market has recovered. At 38, we’re still deep in fear territory, and the macro backdrop (war uncertainty, rising inflation, a confused Fed, slowing GDP, and recession odds approaching 50% by some estimates) justifies a lot of that anxiety.

The individual sub-indicators tell a nuanced story. Market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, and put/call options are all still registering Extreme Fear, meaning broad market participation in the recent bounce remains limited and institutional investors are still paying up for downside protection rather than chasing upside. Junk bond demand sits in Fear territory, reflecting continued caution in credit markets.

The one notable bright spot: safe haven demand is at Extreme Greed, meaning stocks have outperformed bonds over the last 20 trading days. That’s a meaningful signal. Some risk appetite is returning even while fear dominates the other indicators. Market volatility (VIX) is now neutral, a step in the right direction compared to the Extreme Fear readings of recent weeks.

What the current news environment is doing to sentiment.

The macro headlines of this week fed directly into this Fear reading. Failed peace talks, Trump’s Hormuz blockade threat, the hottest inflation report in two years, and hawkish Fed minutes are all fear-generating catalysts. They’re pulling the index down. But here’s what’s critical to understand: fear driven by news events is often temporary. Markets price in resolution before it happens. When (and if) the ceasefire holds and diplomacy progresses, the shift from Fear toward Neutral can happen faster than most people expect.

The investor psychology lesson that applies right now.

History is consistent on this point. One year ago today, this index sat at 5 (near-maximum Extreme Fear). Investors who bought into that fear rather than fleeing from it were significantly rewarded over the following year. Warren Buffett’s most famous rule isn’t just a cliche: “Be greedy when others are fearful” is one of the most consistently validated principles in investing history.

I’m not saying the bottom is confirmed or that bad news is done. The Iran war, sticky inflation, and potential rate hikes represent real risks that could push sentiment lower. But at 38 (Fear), a significant amount of bad news is already priced in.

My advice:

If you’ve been sitting in cash waiting for clarity, recognize that clarity almost never arrives when fear dominates. Clarity is a luxury that appears after prices have already recovered.
Use this Fear reading as confirmation that high-quality names in beaten-down sectors (tech, financials, selective energy) are worth adding to systematically, not all at once.
Watch the VIX. If volatility drops while fear remains elevated, it often signals that the worst selling is done and a recovery phase is beginning.
Be patient, but don’t be passive. The path from Fear (38) back to Neutral (50) or Greed often happens faster than anyone expects, driven by a single positive catalyst (in this case, potentially a more durable ceasefire or a strong start to earnings season).

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky (and turn on notifications)

(8) Macro Technical Analysis

Technical levels matter because they’re where millions of traders have programmed their buy and sell orders. When key levels break, algorithms kick in and magnify moves.

1) S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑

Short-term trend: Positive.

The S&P 500 made a meaningful technical move this week, breaking out of its short-term falling trend channel and pushing above the key 6,810 resistance level. An established break above resistance predicts further near-term upside. The index gained 3.56% over the past five days, reflecting the ceasefire relief rally and optimism around the coming earnings season.

The medium-term signal is positive and the long-term is also positive, which tells you the full story: the very short term is recovering, but the 66-day trend is still slightly negative (down 1.23%). This is a recovery bounce within a broader market that's still healing from a significant drawdown.

2) Tech Stocks QQQ 0.00%↑

Short-term trend: Positive.

The Nasdaq-100 broke the ceiling of its short-term falling trend channel this week, a positive technical signal suggesting the rate of decline has slowed and a new direction may be establishing. With no immediate overhead resistance visible on the chart, the path of least resistance in the near term is higher. Support sits at approximately 24,700, where buyers would likely step in on any pullback.

For the week, the Nasdaq gained 4.45%, outperforming the S&P 500, driven by tech earnings optimism and the AI narrative returning to center stage. Over 22 days, it’s up just 0.64%. Over 66 days, still down 1.12%.

The medium-term signal is negative (the 22-day trend is still struggling for consistent momentum), while the long-term is positive. This matches the broader picture: tech is improving in the short term, but sustained breakout requires earnings to confirm the AI growth story and the macro environment to stop throwing curveballs.

3) Bitcoin $BTC

Short-term trend: Strongly positive.

Bitcoin is the strongest technical setup of the three this week. Bitcoin broke above the critical 71,000 resistance level this week and is trading within a confirmed rising trend channel. Volume tops and bottoms align well with price tops and bottoms, a sign of a healthy, confirmed trend rather than a low-conviction move.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is above 70, which signals strongly positive near-term momentum and rising investor optimism. However, RSI above 70 also signals that Bitcoin may be technically overbought and vulnerable to a short-term consolidation or pullback before the next leg higher. The RSI curve is still trending upward (supporting the bull case), so the pullback risk is a caution flag, not a reversal signal.

The macro context supports Bitcoin’s recent strength. The dollar posted its weakest quarterly performance in five years, a historically positive backdrop for dollar-denominated hard assets like Bitcoin. Geopolitical uncertainty often drives interest in assets outside the traditional financial system. And institutional adoption through spot Bitcoin ETFs (launched in 2024) continues to provide a steady bid.

4) Macro Analysis (what this means for you)

All three major assets (S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Bitcoin) are technically positive in the short term. All three are recovering from significant fear-driven drawdowns. And all three are telling the same story: the acute selling pressure of recent weeks is fading, and a tentative recovery is underway.

But here’s the critical context. These technical signals exist within a macro environment that’s still loaded with uncertainty. The Fear & Greed Index at 38 confirms that sentiment is still fearful, even as charts start to improve. Inflation is running hot. The Fed is debating rate hikes. Q1 earnings season starts next week, the first major fundamental test of where the market is actually headed.

The way the technical and macro pictures fit together tells this story: this is a recovery bounce in a market that still faces real headwinds. The breakout above 6,810 on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100’s break through its falling trend ceiling are encouraging signals, not guarantees.

If earnings come in strong next week, if the ceasefire holds, and if oil prices continue to ease, the technical improvement could develop into a more durable rally. If any of those conditions fail, the Fear & Greed Index could drop back toward Extreme Fear and the technical breakouts could reverse.

The smartest positioning right now mirrors the technical signals: lean positive on quality names, stay disciplined on risk management, use the 6,810 S&P level as your guide, and don’t over-leverage into a bounce that still needs fundamental confirmation.

In uncertain markets, the investors who control their emotions and focus on probabilities rather than certainties are the ones who come out ahead. The charts are leaning positive. The macro is cautiously constructive. And history says Fear at 38 rewards those patient enough to act when others are still frozen.

A message from 9fin:

Get ahead of the market shift most investors won’t see coming

The Middle East conflict isn’t just a geopolitical event. It’s a credit event.

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You’ll walk away knowing where the real opportunities (and risks) are forming right now.

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Part III - Tips & Advice

9. Advice & Recommendations
10. Final Thoughts
11. Your Questions Answered

(9) My Advice & Recommendations:

The Fed’s next move could be a hike, not a cut. In January, “several” Fed officials were open to rate hikes. By March, that group had grown. That’s a major shift in Fed language, and in Fed-speak, language is policy. A single unexpected rate hike would shock a market that has priced in cuts, not increases. Review your rate-sensitive positions now, not after the announcement.
Financials are the most undervalued major sector right now. Bank stocks trade at 12x forward earnings, a 40% discount to the S&P 500’s 20x multiple. With financials sector earnings growth projected to jump from 11% to 20% in Q1, that discount is hard to justify. This is a classic “overlooked in plain sight” opportunity.
AI infrastructure is a decade-long theme, not a quarterly trade.
The IT sector trades at a lower P/E than consumer staples despite 44% expected earnings growth. That gap won’t last. Amazon is spending $200B. Meta is spending $35B. Intel hit a 5-year high. This is infrastructure, not speculation. Buy the picks and shovels (semiconductors, cloud, cybersecurity) on this dip. Buy beaten-down quality tech selectively on weakness.
Earnings matter more than headlines over time. Q1 earnings growth is projected at 16 to 19%, the strongest in four years. Stocks follow earnings over multi-year periods, not news cycles. Panic out of equities when fundamentals are this strong, and you risk missing the recovery that those fundamentals create.
Fear Is a Contrarian Signal. The Fear & Greed Index is at 38. History shows buying below 40 yields 3x better returns over the next year than buying above 60. You don’t have to be brave. You just have to be disciplined.
The inflation surge is far from over. Gas prices caused nearly three-quarters of March's CPI jump. But the second wave hasn't arrived yet. Airfares, grocery prices, and manufactured goods are all still absorbing the oil shock. Budget for higher costs through at least Q3. If you hold long-duration bonds, REITs, or utilities, that exposure carries real risk right now.
The 55+ demographic is now the economy. They control 45.3% of consumer spending and 73.7% of wealth. Their spending priorities (healthcare, travel, financial services) are structural tailwinds. Their stability (no layoffs, no panic selling) provides market ballast.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky (and turn on notifications)

(10) Final Thoughts:

Here’s the paradox at the heart of this market.

The environment looks terrible. And the opportunity looks better than it has in years. Both things are true. That’s what makes markets hard. And that’s what makes moments like this one rare.

Nearly 49% recession odds. Sixteen to nineteen percent earnings growth. Record-low consumer sentiment. Record-high AI investment. The worst quarter for tech stocks relative to the market in 50 years. The cheapest tech valuations relative to earnings in years.

The data isn’t confusing. The emotion is.

Strip the emotion out. Focus on quality companies with strong margins and real earnings. Stay patient. Buy with a plan.

Here’s what two decades in finance has taught me, and it’s the one thing I’d want you to walk away with today.

Markets are a machine for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient.

Right now, the impatient are selling 16 to 19% earnings growth at depressed prices. They’re dumping tech stocks that trade cheaper than laundry detergent companies. They’re moving to cash at the exact moment quality assets are going on sale. And they’ll buy back in later, at higher prices, telling themselves that now it “feels safer.”

The patient are doing something different. They’re building watchlists. Adding to quality positions with discipline. Letting fear create entry points that normal markets never offer.

Fear passes. It always does. The Iran war will resolve. Inflation will cool. The Fed will find its footing. And the companies building the AI infrastructure of the next decade? They’ll still be compounding.

Don’t be scared out of the game. Be strategic enough to use the fear.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky (and turn on notifications)

(11) Your Questions Answered

Have a question? Comment below and I will answer it in the next issue!

Q: What sectors benefit most from the aging population trend?

Three sectors stand out. Healthcare (hospitals, insurers, GLP-1 drug makers). Financials (wealth managers and brokers handling the $80 trillion wealth transfer). And Leisure/Cruises (older Americans have time and money to travel). Avoid youth-focused retail and entry-level housing.

Q: What’s the most contrarian play right now?

Cybersecurity. The Global X Cybersecurity ETF is down 15.5% in 2026 on AI disruption fears. But Anthropic’s Project Glasswing is partnering with CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks, not replacing them. As AI makes attacks more sophisticated, demand for protection grows. The “disruption” narrative is wrong. The “amplification” narrative is right.

Q: What does GDP collapsing to 0.5% actually mean for me?

It means the economy is barely growing, and any additional shock could push it into contraction. For most people, it shows up as job market pressure, slower wage growth, and less business investment in the months ahead. The direct portfolio implication is that cyclical businesses, those that depend on strong economic growth, face the most risk. Consumer discretionary, real estate, and some industrials are most exposed. The flip side is that companies with recession-resistant revenue models, healthcare, staples, software subscriptions, and government contracts, hold up much better when growth slows.

Q: Will inflation keep getting worse before it gets better?

Yes, and that’s the part most people are missing. The March CPI report captured the first wave of the energy shock. Gas led the surge. But airfares, grocery prices, and consumer goods prices haven’t fully adjusted to higher fuel and shipping costs yet. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 showed the same pattern: gas surged first, then airfares, then food, then goods, over several months. Plan for elevated prices through at least the end of Q3 this year. If the ceasefire holds and oil prices normalize, the second wave could be more moderate, but it’s still coming.

Q: Is a recession actually coming?

The probability is higher than most people want to admit. Goldman Sachs puts it at 30%. EY Parthenon at 40%. Moody’s Analytics at 48.6%. Those aren’t fringe estimates. But here’s the nuance: even if a recession comes, it doesn’t mean stocks go to zero. Some sectors perform well in recessions, specifically healthcare, consumer staples, and defense. The real risk is being overexposed to cyclical, rate-sensitive, and consumer-discretionary names if growth slows. Position defensively within your equity exposure, rather than fleeing it entirely.

Q: Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much?

Because 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas passes through one 21-mile-wide channel. When that channel is restricted, global energy supply drops fast. And oil isn’t just fuel for cars. It’s the input cost for virtually every physical product, from plastics to fertilizers to manufactured goods. When oil prices go up 40%, the cost of making and moving almost everything goes up with it. That’s why one waterway can cause a global inflation surge. It’s not a metaphor. It’s logistics.

Q: How did you predict this inflation surge weeks ago?

The sequence was visible in real-time. War begins February 28. Strait closes. Oil rises 40%. Gas prices follow with 3-4 week lag. CPI reports monthly. The market was pricing in Fed cuts while the supply shock was already unfolding. This is the same playbook as Russia-Ukraine 2022—energy first, then everything else.

👋Last Words:

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Jasmine C

These numbers confirm what we have been seeing on the ground. The 55+ demographic is not just a segment; they are the foundation of the current market. What is most interesting is not just the wealth, but the shift in priority. They are spending on experiences and travel that offer a sense of connection and culture rather than just stuff. As a marketing strategist, I think the brands' challenges are no longer about youth coding everything. It is about building genuine fairness and representation for the demographic that is actually keeping the lights on.

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