đ„ Cash Is King (Again), The Biggest IPO in History, The Fed's Rate Hike, and What Comes Next
Inflation Hit a 3-Year High, SpaceX Soared, and The New Market Warning Youâll Want to Hear.
In 1720, Sir Isaac Newton watched the South Sea Company stock soar. He was no fool. He had already calculated the motions of the planets and the laws of gravity. He sold early, pocketed a nice profit, and told himself he was out.
Then he watched his friends get richer while he sat on the sidelines. The temptation grew too loud. So he climbed back in, near the very top, and when the bubble burst, he lost a fortune. One of the smartest humans who ever lived later said he could âcalculate the motions of the stars but not the madness of men.â
I thought about Newton this week as SpaceX went public in the largest IPO ever and made Elon Musk the worldâs first trillionaire. I thought about him as inflation hit a threeâyear high and the Fed quietly replaced the promised rate cut with a rate hike. And I thought about him as chip stocks, the very heart of this AI rally, cracked hard.
The biggest risk to your wealth is not the market crashing. The biggest risk is your own psychology. It is the urge to chase the hype. It is the fear of missing out on the next SpaceX. It is the belief that this time is different.
This time is never different. Human nature drives the markets. Fear and greed will always battle for control. Right now, greed is driving the headlines. Fear is driving the underlying data. Trust the fear.
This issue breaks down why inflation just hit a three-year high, why the Fed is now talking about hikes instead of cuts, and what the SpaceX IPO frenzy really means.
đŹ Hereâs whatâs inside todayâs issue!
Part I â The Big Picture (Markets & Economy)
1. Market Breakdown (And Whatâs Important)
2. 3 Things You Need To Understand
Part II â What The Market Is Telling Us
3. Market Psychology & What Comes Next
4. Interest Rate Forecast + Real Estate Outlook
Part III â Investment Research & Analysis
5. Insider Trading Alerts (Follow the Smart Money)
6. Stocks Beating the Market
7. The Smartest Trades I See Right Now
Part IV â What You Should Do
8. Practical Advice & What to Do Next
9. Lessons I Wish I Learned Sooner (Remember This)
10. Ask Me Anything (Subscriber Questions Answered)
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Part I: The Big Picture (Markets & Economy)
1ïžâŁ Market Breakdown (And Whatâs Important)
Inflation hit a three year high. May CPI came in at 4.2%, the hottest since April 2023, with energy driving more than 60% of the jump.
The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% but the tone turned hawkish. Nine of 19 officials now pencil in a hike this year. In March, none did.
Stocks rode a peace deal high to fresh records, then handed a big chunk back. The Dow tagged an all time high before sellers took over.
The chip trade cracked. The semiconductor index dropped about 6% Tuesday, the Nasdaq 100 fell 4.8% Friday, and the SMH ETF now sits more than 10% below last weekâs record.
Gold cracked, down about 20% since the war began. Bitcoin had its worst week since the FTX collapse.
Bank of America told clients to take profits, with 70% of its bear market signals flashing red.
Cash is king again. Money market funds hold a record $8.29 trillion.
Fear is back. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 37, down from 59 a month ago.
SpaceX went public in the largest IPO ever and blew past Amazon, ending near $2.6 trillion. Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire.
đĄ Andrewâs Analysis:
Stocks ripped to record highs when the US and Iran announced a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow printed an all time high. Oil dipped. Risk appetite came roaring back. And then reality walked in.
The reality is this. Inflation just hit 4.2%, a three year high. The Fed, under brand new Chair Kevin Warsh, held rates steady but flipped hawkish, with nearly half its officials now expecting a hike before year end. The chip stocks that carried this entire rally rolled over hard. And that Iran deal we celebrated? Tehran is already threatening to re close Hormuz again.
Hereâs what most people miss. This rally was built on the market believing two uncertain things at the same time. One, that AI will pay off in profits and not just spending. Two, that peace with Iran will hold. Both of those bets are still wide open. When I spent my years on Wall Street, the most dangerous moments were never the obvious crashes. They were the quiet stretches when everyone agreed the good times would keep rolling. Agreement feels safe. Itâs usually the most expensive place to stand.
Look at how the pieces fit. The war pushed oil higher. Higher oil pushed inflation to 4.2%. Hot inflation pushed the Fed toward hikes instead of cuts. The threat of hikes hit the most expensive stocks first, and nothing was more expensive than chips. So the same chain that lifted everything is now the chain dragging it down. Itâs all one story. Energy, inflation, rates, and tech are not separate headlines. Theyâre dominoes, and they fall in order.
Then thereâs the tell almost nobody is talking about. Money market funds now hold a record $8.29 trillion. Thatâs cash sitting on the sidelines earning a safe yield. People love to say that pile of cash is âfuelâ for the next leg up. I read it the other way. When that much money chooses to do nothing while stocks sit near records, it means smart money is paying up for safety. Fear and Greed at 37 says the same thing. The crowd is nervous, even as the headlines stay green.
I flagged the chip risk a few weeks back. The setup was textbook. One sector carrying the whole market, valuations stretched, and everyone crowded on the same side of the boat. When that boat tips, it tips fast. The semiconductor index losing double digits in days is not noise. Itâs the market reminding you that concentration cuts both ways.
So what do you actually do with this info? Three moves:
First, respect cash as a position, not a failure. Holding dry powder while you wait for better prices is a decision, not a mistake. The record cash pile is telling you that even the pros agree.
Second, stop treating âthe marketâ as one thing. Bank of America said it plainly. Thereâs opportunity in individual stocks, just not in the overall index near these levels. Own businesses, not the ticker tape.
Third, build a plan for both outcomes before you need one. If peace holds and inflation cools, you want a shopping list ready. If Hormuz stays shut and prices stay hot, you want to know what youâll trim. Decide while youâre calm. You will not think clearly when the screen turns red.
The lesson that outlasts this week is simple. Markets donât punish optimism. They punish optimism with no plan. Hope is not a hedge.
đ For daily insights follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky (and turn on notifications)
2ïžâŁ 3 Things You Need To Understand
đŹ Today we analyze:
1) Why Wall Street Can't Stop Talking About SpaceX
2) The Rate Cut You Were Promised Is Now a Rate Hike
3) The Rare Warning Most Investors Will Ignore
đ€ But first â Would you buy SpaceX?
1. Why Wall Street Canât Stop Talking About SpaceX
SpaceX pulled off the largest IPO ever, raising $75 billion and ending its debut near a $2.1 trillion value. Within three trading days it blew past Amazon to become one of the most valuable companies on earth, and it made Elon Musk the worldâs first trillionaire.
The numbers are staggering. Shares priced at $135, popped 19% on day one, then kept climbing. By the third day the market cap touched nearly $2.94 trillion, briefly leapfrogging Microsoft. Retail investors went wild. On Monday, SpaceX made up almost 75% of all single stock buying by retail traders. People bought more SpaceX than every other stock combined.
Then SpaceX hit the gas. It announced a $60 billion all stock deal to buy the AI coding startup Cursor, aiming to help its xAI unit catch up to Anthropic and OpenAI. Musk floated a wild target of $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, a long way from the $18.7 billion it made last year.
Hereâs my read after watching plenty of hype cycles up close. SpaceX is a real, dominant business. It runs most of the worldâs orbital launches and Starlink has millions of subscribers. But the valuation is priced for a future that hasnât been built yet (like solar powered data centers in space). The space unit lost money. The AI unit lost more. Youâre not buying todayâs earnings. Youâre buying a dream, and dreams reprice fast.
Watch one date. The first share lockup ends August 21, when the float doubles. Right now only about 4% of shares can trade. When insiders are finally free to sell, youâll learn how real this momentum is. History says the biggest IPOs often shine bright, then drift lower over their first year. Google rose. Facebook fell hard before it soared. Either way, the smart move is patience, not chasing.
2. The Rate Cut You Were Promised Is Now a Rate Hike
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 4.2% in May from a year earlier, the fastest pace since April 2023 and the first time inflation topped 4% in three years. Energy did most of the damage, and the Iran war is the reason.
The Fed met for the first time under new Chair Kevin Warsh and held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. But the message underneath was loud. Nine of 19 officials now expect a rate hike this year. Back in March, not a single one did. Thatâs a fast and serious shift in mood, and it sent stocks lower and bond yields higher.
Thereâs a silver lining hiding in the report though. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose just 0.2% for the month, softer than expected. That tells you the price pain is mostly stuck in gas and energy, not spreading across everything else. The post pandemic inflation was broad and sticky. This one, for now, is narrow.
But narrow doesnât mean harmless. Real wages fell again, down about 0.8% from a year ago. Thatâs two straight months of your paycheck buying less. People feel like theyâre losing ground because they are. When workers canât keep up, they spend less, and weaker spending eventually cools the whole economy.
My prediction is simple. As long as Hormuz stays shaky and oil stays high, the Fed stays frozen, and a hike becomes more likely than a cut by late this year. For your money, that means the cheap borrowing you were hoping for isnât coming soon. Lock in what you can. Lean on savings and short term Treasuries that actually pay you. And stop betting your plan on rate cuts that keep getting pushed back.
3. The Rare Warning Most Investors Will Ignore
Bank of America reported that 70% of its bear market warning signals have triggered, matching the average seen right before past market peaks. Its head of US stock strategy titled the note bluntly, telling clients there were too many red flags and to take profits.
This matters more than the average analyst call. Wall Street makes money selling stocks to the public, so its analysts almost never say sell. When one of the biggest banks comes close, you pay attention. The signals include sky high growth expectations, very easy credit, and a huge gap between the best and worst performing stocks.
That gap is the scary part. Inside tech, the spread between winners and losers hit the widest level since February 2000. If that year sounds familiar, it should. That was the top of the dot com bubble, weeks before it burst. History doesnât repeat, but it sure rhymes.
The bank still sees opportunity in picking individual stocks. It just doesnât trust the index as a whole near these prices. Thatâs a key distinction. Owning great businesses at fair prices is different from buying an expensive index and hoping.
Iâm not telling you to sell everything and hide. Thatâs almost always a mistake. But when this many warning lights flash at once, you trim the winners that have run too far, you raise a little cash, and you stop adding to the most crowded trades. Greed feels great right up until it doesnât.
đĄ Andrewâs Analysis:
The common thread this week is complacency. Investors want to believe the AI boom and an Iran peace deal will carry stocks higher forever. But the data says otherwise. Consumer spending is weakening. Earnings expectations are too high. Insider selling will hit SpaceX in August. And the Fed just told you rates are going up, not down.
The lesson is simple. When the crowd is greedy, be cautious. When the crowd is certain, ask questions. And right now, the crowd is certain that nothing bad can happen. In my experience, that is exactly when bad things happen.
A message from think-cell:
The Tool Used By Almost Every Fortune 100 Company
Hereâs a number worth knowing: 35,000+ businesses, including most of the Fortune 100, build their PowerPoint slides with think-cell, cutting presentation time by up to 70%.
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Seamless Excel linking. Update your data, and your slides update instantly
AI-powered features help you build even better slides
Part II: What the Market Is Telling Us
3. Market Psychology & What Comes Next
4. Interest Rate Forecast + Real Estate Outlook
3ïžâŁ Market Psychology & What Comes Next
Fear and Greed Index
Rating: Negative (Fear)
The Fear and Greed Index measures the mood of the market on a scale from 0 to 100, where low numbers mean fear and high numbers mean greed. Right now it sits at 37, squarely in fear, down from a much calmer 59 just a month ago.
The biggest drivers pulling it down are stock price strength and the credit market. Both are flashing extreme fear. That means more stocks are hitting new lows than new highs, and investors are getting pickier about risky junk bonds. Market momentum is still in greed because the S&P sits above its long term average, but the internals are weak underneath.
Hereâs the counterintuitive part most people get wrong. Fear is often a friend to long term investors. The crowd panics near bottoms and celebrates near tops. A reading of 37 isnât a reason to run. Itâs a reason to start building your shopping list while others lose their nerve. When the crowd is scared, prices go on sale.
AAII Investor Sentiment
Rating: Negative (Bearish), but a contrarian positive
The AAII survey asks everyday investors where they think the market goes over the next six months. Itâs been running since 1987 and gives you a read on how the regular crowd feels.
The latest numbers show 39.4% bearish, 36.6% bullish, and 24.1% neutral. Bears outnumber bulls, and pessimism has now sat above its long term average for 19 straight weeks. The bull bear spread is negative.
On the surface that sounds bad. But this gauge works best flipped upside down. When everyday investors get this gloomy for this long, it often marks a point where the easy selling is done. Extreme, stubborn pessimism tends to show up closer to bottoms than tops. The data is bearish on its face, and thatâs exactly why the patient investor leans slightly the other way.
Technical Analysis
Rating: Neutral to Slightly Positive (Mixed)
The S&P 500 closed near 7,500 and still sits in a rising trend channel, rated positive over the short term. It has support around 7,270 and resistance near 7,600. As long as it holds that support, the uptrend stays alive.
The Nasdaq 100 looks shakier. It closed near 30,406 and just broke below the floor of its rising channel, which flips it to a neutral hold. That break lines up with the chip selloff and tells you the high flyers are losing steam first.
Bitcoin is the clear loser here, sitting in a falling trend channel and rated negative across the board. The picture is split. Big stocks are holding their trend, tech is wobbling, and crypto is broken. Mixed, with the risk leaning lower until tech steadies.
Economic Indicators
Rating: Negative (Mixed to Weak)
Inflation is the loudest signal, with CPI running at 4.17%, well above the Fedâs 2% goal and the main source of stress in the economy right now. That single number is driving rate fears and squeezing households.
Consumer sentiment is the other red flag, sitting at 44.80, which is near the bottom of its historical range. People feel terrible about the economy, and that mood usually shows up in slower spending. The 10 year Treasury yield at 4.45% and the yield spread at 0.76 point to a market still pricing in higher for longer rates.
The brighter spots are jobs and growth. Unemployment sits at 4.30%, still healthy, and GDP is growing at about 2%. So the economy is expanding and people have jobs, but high prices and sour moods are dragging the overall picture down. Mixed, with inflation tilting it negative.
Recession Indicators
Rating: Positive (Expansion), with one warning
The good news is that the overall signal still indicates expansion, the same as it did three and six months ago. The economy is not in a recession today.
Most metrics are positive, including credit spreads, the money supply, the yield curve, and profit margins, which have actually improved. Housing permits even moved up from caution to expansion. Thatâs a broad base of strength.
The one red light is job sentiment, which has been stuck in recession territory for a while. People feel uneasy about their job security even with low unemployment. That gap between how the data looks and how people feel is the thing to watch. For now, the dashboard says the expansion continues.
The Bigger Picture - Bringing It All Together
Overall Rating: Neutral to Negative (Mixed, lean cautious)
Add it all up and the market is sending one clear message. The economy is still growing, but the mood has turned defensive, and inflation is the reason.
Look at how the signals agree. Fear and Greed says fear. AAII says bearish. Technicals say tech is cracking. The economic data says prices are too hot and people feel awful. Only the recession indicators stays green. So the hard data says weâre fine, while almost every mood and market signal says be careful. When feelings and prices turn cautious before the economy does, thatâs often an early warning, not a false alarm.
The catalyst behind the gloom is the same chain from earlier. The Iran war keeps oil high, high oil keeps inflation at 4.2%, and hot inflation pushes the Fed toward hikes instead of cuts. If Hormuz reopens and oil falls, this whole picture could brighten in weeks. If the ceasefire keeps breaking, the fear is justified and stocks have more room to fall.
What pushes the market higher from here: A real, lasting peace deal that drops oil and cools inflation, which would free the Fed and revive the rally.
What pushes it lower: More chip selling, a renewed energy shock, or the first sign that high prices are spreading beyond gas.
My take: Stay invested, but stay defensive. The expansion gives you a floor. The fear gives you opportunity. Keep some cash ready, lean toward quality, and treat extreme fear readings as your cue to nibble, not to flee. The smart play in a mixed market is patience with a plan.
đFor daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky (and turn on notifications)
4ïžâŁ Interest Rate Forecast + Real Estate Outlook
Interest Rates
My call is that rates hold steady for now, with the next move more likely to be a hike than a cut.
The Fed just held its benchmark at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the tone changed under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Nine of 19 officials now expect a hike this year, a sharp turn from March when none did. With inflation back above 4%, the cheap money everyone was waiting for is off the table.
I expect mortgage rates to sit around 6.5% in the near term, drifting sideways to slightly higher. Rates loosely follow the 10 year Treasury, not the Fed directly, and that yield stays elevated as long as inflation runs hot. The trigger for all of this is the Strait of Hormuz. While oil stays high, inflation stays high, and rates have no room to fall.
Hereâs what this means for you. If youâre waiting on the sidelines for a big rate drop, you may be waiting a long time. The smarter move is to plan around 6.5% as the new normal. Buyers who keep waiting often pay more in rising prices than they save in rate. If rates do dip even half a point later this year, thatâs your window to refinance, so know your numbers now and be ready to move fast.
Real Estate
The housing market is splitting into two stories, and the gap is the opportunity.
On the builder side, things look weak. Single family housing starts fell to a six year low, and builder confidence dropped to 35, well below the line that separates a good market from a bad one. High mortgage rates and high construction costs are scaring builders away from new projects. That points to tighter supply down the road, which supports prices over the long run.
On the buyer side, things look surprisingly strong. Existing home sales climbed to 4.17 million in May, the best pace of the year and up more than 3% from last May. First time buyers made up a bigger share. Asking prices are softening, which means sellers are getting realistic, but actual sale prices kept rising. Household real estate hit a record value of $48.7 trillion.
My read for each group:
Buyers â demand is holding and sellers are more willing to negotiate, so this is a real window if you can handle a 6.5% rate. Push for price cuts and seller help with closing costs.
Sellers â price it right the first time, because homes that sit get stale and buyers smell desperation.
Investors â the builder pullback today means tighter supply tomorrow, and tight supply plus steady demand is the recipe that protects home values. The headlines say chaos. The data says a market quietly finding its footing.
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Part III: Investment Research & Analysis
5. Insider Trading Alerts (Follow the Smart Money)
6. Stocks Beating the Market
7. The Smartest Trade I See Right Now
5ïžâŁ Insider Trading Alerts (Follow the Smart Money)
EquipmentShare.com $EQPT
Both co founders of EquipmentShare loaded up on stock at the same time. CEO Jabbok Schlacks bought $1,056,039 and President William Schlacks bought $1,073,500, in trades reported on June 17, 2026. Each picked up 50,000 shares at around $21.
EquipmentShare rents out construction equipment and pairs it with technology that tracks and manages that gear for builders. Think of it as the modern version of an equipment rental yard, with software baked in to help contractors run job sites better. When two founders buy matching amounts on the same day, thatâs a coordinated vote of confidence. Theyâre telling the market they believe in what they built.
Founders selling can mean many things, but founders buying usually means one. They think the stock is undervalued and the future is bright. These two have inside knowledge of their order book, their customer demand, and their growth plans. Spending over a million each says they like what they see.
The growth story here ties to construction and infrastructure spending. As America builds more data centers, factories, and housing, demand for rented equipment rises, and the tech layer gives EquipmentShare an edge over old school rental shops. If they keep taking share in a huge, fragmented market, the long term runway is real. The near term risk is high interest rates slowing construction, but the founders are clearly betting the long game wins.
Sagtec Global $SAGT
The CEO of Sagtec Global, Ng Chen Lok, who also owns more than 10% of the company, bought $1,560,000 of stock, in a trade reported on June 18, 2026. He picked up 1.5 million shares at about $1.04, growing his stake by 22%.
Sagtec Global is a small software company that builds digital tools and platforms for businesses. This is a true small cap, with shares trading near a dollar, so it carries much more risk than the bigger names above. The stock can swing wildly on small news, which cuts both ways.
When a CEO who already owns a big chunk adds another 22%, thatâs about as aligned as an insider can get. His wealth rises and falls with the stock, so a buy this size means he believes the market is badly underpricing the business. With small companies, insiders often know about new contracts or product wins long before the public does.
The outlook here is pure speculation, the kind that can multiply or vanish. If Sagtec lands bigger clients or rides the wider software demand wave, a one dollar stock has room to run hard. But small caps fail often, so this belongs only in the high risk corner of a portfolio. The insider buying is a genuine green flag. The size of the company is the yellow one.
6ïžâŁ Stocks Beating the Market
1) uniQure $QURE up +78% on Wednesday 6/17
uniQure rocketed 78% higher on Wednesday after the FDA cleared a path for the company to seek approval of its gene therapy for Huntingtonâs disease. The company builds one time treatments that aim to fix genetic diseases at the source, and Huntingtonâs is a brutal, inherited brain disorder with almost no good options today.
A regulatory green light like this is the holy grail for a small biotech. It turns a science project into a potential product, and the market repriced the stock in a single day. Gene therapy is one of the most exciting corners of medicine, because a single treatment could replace a lifetime of care.
Looking ahead, the path is still long. uniQure needs to run the approval process and prove the therapy works at scale, which takes time and money. But the addressable market is huge, since thereâs no cure for Huntingtonâs and families are desperate for hope. If the therapy advances, this could be the start of a much bigger story. Biotech is binary, so expect big swings, but the upside here is real.
2) Butterfly Network $BFLY up +56% on Thursday 6/18
Butterfly Network surged 56% on Thursday after the AI company Midjourney unveiled a medical imaging platform powered by Butterflyâs ultrasound on a chip technology. Butterfly makes a handheld ultrasound device that plugs into a phone, turning a tool that used to cost a fortune into something portable and cheap.
Getting picked as the hardware behind a major AI imaging push is a huge validation. It tells the market that Butterflyâs chip could become a standard piece of the AI healthcare future, not just a niche gadget. AI plus cheap imaging is a powerful combo, because software can read scans and put diagnostic power in more hands.
The growth runway is wide. If AI imaging takes off in clinics, rural areas, and developing countries, demand for affordable ultrasound could explode. Butterfly sits right at the meeting point of two megatrends, AI and accessible healthcare. The risk is that itâs still a small company that needs to turn buzz into real sales, but the long term picture just got a lot brighter.
3) Western Digital $WDC up +16% on Monday 6/15
Western Digital rose 16% on Monday after Morgan Stanley raised price targets on expectations that AI demand will create a hard drive shortage. The company makes data storage, including the hard drives and flash memory that hold the worldâs growing pile of digital information.
This is the AI boom showing up in storage. All that data feeding AI models has to live somewhere, and that somewhere is drives made by companies like Western Digital. A looming shortage means pricing power, and pricing power means fatter profits.
The growth story is straightforward. AI creates an explosion of data, and data needs storage, so demand could stay strong for years. Western Digital sits in the sweet spot of that trend. The risk is that storage has always been a boom and bust business with wild price swings. But if the AI shortage plays out, this run may have more room.
4) SharonAI $SAI up +11% on Wednesday 6/17
SharonAI jumped 11% on Wednesday after securing $1.6 billion in financing to expand AI data center capacity across the Asia Pacific region. The company builds and runs the data centers that power AI computing, the picks and shovels of the AI gold rush.
Landing $1.6 billion in funding is a major vote of confidence. It gives the company the firepower to build more capacity right as demand for AI computing is exploding. Data centers are the backbone of AI, and whoever owns the capacity controls a scarce, valuable resource.
The growth runway is enormous. AI needs vast amounts of computing power, and Asia Pacific is a fast growing market for it. If SharonAI executes on its buildout, it could ride one of the biggest infrastructure trends of the decade. The risk is the heavy cost of building data centers and the debt that comes with it. But the demand backdrop is as strong as it gets.
5) Micron Technology $MU up +11% on Monday 6/15
Micron advanced 11% on Monday as investors returned to the AI trade and focused on memory chip shortages. Micron is one of the worldâs biggest makers of memory chips, the parts that store and move data inside everything from phones to AI servers.
Memory is suddenly hot again. The AI boom flipped a long slide in chip prices into a shortage, and Micron sits right in the middle of it. When demand outruns supply, chip makers print money, and the market is pricing in exactly that.
The outlook ties to the entire AI buildout. Every AI server needs tons of memory, and that demand could stay strong for years. Apple even said rising memory costs are forcing it to raise prices, which tells you how tight supply is. Micronâs risk is the famous boom and bust chip cycle, but right now the cycle is firmly in its favor.
6) Seagate Technology $STX up +9% on Monday 6/15
Seagate rose 9% on Monday alongside Western Digital, after Morgan Stanley flagged a coming hard drive shortage driven by AI demand. Seagate is one of the two giants of data storage, making the high capacity hard drives that fill data centers around the world.
This is the same AI storage story, and Seagate is the other big winner. As AI generates mountains of data, the demand for high capacity drives climbs, and Seagate is built to supply it. A shortage means better pricing and stronger margins.
Looking ahead, the demand for cheap, massive storage in data centers should keep growing as AI scales. Seagateâs specialty in big drives puts it right where the demand is heaviest. Like its peers, it faces the cyclical swings of the storage business, but the AI tailwind could stretch this run further than past cycles.
đ For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
7ïžâŁ The Smartest Trade I See Right Now
Williams Companies $WMB
A huge bullish bet just landed on Williams Companies, with traders piling into call options at a pace thatâs impossible to ignore.
Hereâs the setup in plain terms. Calls are bets that a stock goes up, and puts are bets that it goes down. On Williams, call volume hit roughly 66 times its normal level, and the call to put ratio was about 300 to 1. Thatâs not a casual bet. Thatâs a stampede in one direction.
Almost all of it came from one big trade. Someone bought 75,000 of a November call spread, controlling 150,000 contracts, for about $1.90 each. Theyâre betting Williams climbs from where it trades now toward the $90s by November. Because there was almost no prior position in those options, this is fresh money making a fresh bet, which makes the bullish signal even stronger.
Williams Companies is one of the largest natural gas pipeline operators in America. It moves and processes the gas that heats homes and powers electricity across the country. Itâs a steady, cash producing business, the kind that pays a solid dividend and benefits when energy demand rises.
The timing makes sense. The AI boom is driving a massive need for electricity to run data centers, and a lot of that power comes from natural gas. That puts pipeline companies like Williams right in the path of rising demand. With energy prices elevated thanks to the Iran situation, gas infrastructure looks more valuable, not less.
The stock has traded in a tight range lately after pulling back from a 52 week high around $80. That big call buyer is betting the pause ends and the stock pushes back toward those highs and beyond. Iâm bullish on this trade. The setup pairs a clear demand story with a defensive, dividend paying business, and the options flow shows a confident buyer with real conviction.
Looking further out, the case for Williams rests on a simple idea. AI and electricity demand are growing for years, not months, and natural gas is a key fuel feeding that growth. Pipelines are hard to build and hard to replace, so the companies that own them hold a valuable, protected position. If power demand keeps climbing, Williams could ride that wave well beyond this single trade.
Sanofi $SNY
A smaller but telling bullish bet showed up on Sanofi, a beaten down drug giant that traders may be betting has hit bottom.
The flow tells the story. Call volume ran about 7 times normal, and the call to put ratio was roughly 20 to 1. Traders zeroed in on one contract, the July $45 call, buying more than 4,300 of them and paying around 25 to 30 cents each. Theyâre betting the stock climbs from about $42 toward $45 and higher by mid July.
What makes this interesting is the timing. Sanofi just hit a fresh 52 week low and sits down about 14% for the year. So these traders arenât chasing a hot stock. Theyâre betting on a turnaround in a name the market has given up on. That kind of bet near the lows can pay off big if the tide turns.
Sanofi is a large French pharmaceutical company that makes vaccines, prescription drugs, and consumer health products sold around the world. Itâs a stable, global business with a deep pipeline of medicines, the kind of defensive name investors often hide in when markets get rocky.
The bull case is value plus stability. A big, profitable drug maker trading near its lows offers a margin of safety, and any good news on its drug pipeline could spark a quick bounce. In a nervous market with fear running high, defensive healthcare names can attract money looking for safety with upside.
Iâm cautiously bullish on this one. The bet is cheap, the stock is beaten down, and the risk is small relative to the potential reward. The main risk is that these are short dated options expiring in July, so the stock needs to move fairly soon. If it doesnât bounce in time, the bet expires worthless. Thatâs the trade off with cheap, near term calls.
Zooming out, the long term story for Sanofi depends on its drug pipeline delivering new winners and its vaccine business staying strong. Big pharma tends to grind higher over years as new treatments reach the market and aging populations need more medicine. For patient investors, a quality drug maker bought near its lows can be a smart, lower risk way to own healthcare. The options crowd is betting the bottom is in.
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Part IV: What You Should Do
8. Practical Advice & What to Do Next
9. The Lessons I Wish I Learned Sooner (Remember This)
10. Ask Me Anything (Your Questions Answered)
8ïžâŁ Practical Advice & What to Do Next
Treat cash as a position, not a failure. A record $8.29 trillion is parked in money market funds for a reason. Holding dry powder while you wait for better prices is a smart, active choice. You can't buy the dip if you're already all in.
Use fear as your shopping list trigger, not your panic button. A Fear and Greed reading of 37 is not a reason to run. It is a reason to start building your list. The crowd panics near bottoms and celebrates near tops. Be ready to buy when others lose their nerve.
Focus new capital on businesses tied to real, durable demand rather than pure hype. AI infrastructure still has years of spending ahead, but the companies that actually get paid for it (pipelines, storage, select software) will outlast the ones priced for perfection today.
Watch the SpaceX lockup on August 21. That's when insiders can finally sell and the tradable shares double. Big IPOs often shine, then drift lower over their first year, so patience beats chasing the pop.
Own staples, utilities, and healthcare when fear rises. These sectors do not make you rich fast. They keep you rich when everything else falls. Defensive names attract money looking for safety with upside.
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9ïžâŁ Lessons I Wish I Learned Sooner (Remember This)
Sir John Templeton made a fortune doing what felt awful. He famously said, âBuy at the point of maximum pessimism.â Not when it felt safe. Not when the headlines were calm. But when fear was so thick you could taste it.
Right now, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 37. Everyday investor sentiment has been bearish for 19 straight weeks. Money market funds hold a record $8.29 trillion in cash. The crowd is not greedy. The crowd is scared. Thatâs not a signal to run. Itâs a signal to start building your list.
Newton lost a fortune because he chased the crowd at the top. Templeton built one by calmly buying what the crowd had thrown away. The difference between the two is not intelligence. Itâs emotional discipline, and a plan.
So hereâs your plan in three words: Plan before panic. Decide while youâre calm what youâll buy if the market keeps falling, and what youâll trim if it rallies on a peace deal. Write it down. Because when the screen turns red or green in a flash, you will not think clearly. You will feel. And feelings are terrible investment advisors.
đ Ask Me Anything (Subscriber Questions Answered)
Q: Should I buy SpaceX stock right now?
I would wait. SpaceX is a real, dominant business. It runs most orbital launches. Starlink has millions of subscribers. But the valuation is extreme. The company lost money last year and trades at nearly one hundred times trailing revenue. The first lockup expiration hits August 21, which will double the shares available to trade. History shows the biggest IPOs often drift lower in their first year. If you love the story, put it on your watchlist and buy the dip later.
Q: What should long-term investors do now?
Stay invested, but get more selective. Hold cash, own quality, avoid weak balance sheets, and buy slowly on pullbacks. The goal is not to guess every move. The goal is to survive and compound.
Q: Is the Fed really going to raise rates this year?
Nine of nineteen Fed officials now expect at least one hike. In March, zero did. That is a massive shift in just three months. New Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady but removed forward guidance. The market is pricing in a 37% chance of two hikes this year. My call is that rates hold steady through summer, with a hike more likely in September or December if inflation stays above 4%. Do not plan on rate cuts anytime soon.
Q: Why did the Fed flip from cutting rates to hiking rates?
Inflation came back hot. CPI hit 4.2%. The Iran war spiked oil prices. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is a hawk. He cares about killing inflation, not saving the stock market. When prices run this hot, the Fed has no choice but to tighten.
đFinal Words:
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