💥 Investing Advice & Market Analysis (August 4, 2025)
My Investment Research, Stock Picks, Insider Trades, Interest Rate Predictions, Real Estate Trends, Economic Outlook, Technical Analysis & More!
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👋 Good morning my friend and welcome back to the #1 finance newsletter! I hope you’ve had a great weekend!
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Part I — Financial Markets:
1) My Market Analysis
2) Important News & Events You Need to Know (and my thoughts)
3) Charts & Numbers To Know
🎯Premium Research & Analysis:
Part II — Stock Market:
4) What I'm Investing in (my stock picks, research and analysis)
5) Notable Insider Trades from Billionaires, Politicians and CEO's
6) Trade of the Week (options trading)
7) Stocks to Watch (catalysts, earnings, and news)
Part III — Real Estate:
8) Real Estate Trends and Housing Market Analysis
9) Interest Rate Predictions (and current rates)
Part IV — Macro:
10) Technical Analysis (S&P 500, Tech Stocks, Bitcoin)
11) Economic Outlook & Market Sentiment
12) Important Earning Announcements (and what to watch)
13) Important Economic Events🙏Please support us and hit the ❤️LIKE button on this post so more people can discover it on Substack!
1) Andrew’s Market Analysis:
This year, the S&P 500 is up 6.3%, the Nasdaq is up 7.1%, Gold is up 28%, and Bitcoin has gone up 22.7%. Here's everything important that happened this week:
A really bad jobs report, new tariffs announced by President Trump, the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and a Federal Reserve governor quitting led to the S&P 500 having its worst week since May.
More than 1.8 million people have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. That's the biggest number since 2017.
President Trump signed an order to put new tariffs (taxes on imports) on goods from 69 countries. These will start on August 7.
Inflation got worse with the biggest increase seen in four months. Prices rose 0.3% from May to June, and overall prices are about 2.6% higher than last year.
Big Tech companies like Alphabet (Google’s parent), Apple, Meta (Facebook’s parent), and Microsoft delivered strong earnings reports, making investors happy.
Microsoft’s stock has gone up for 10 weeks straight, the longest streak since last year.
Apple had strong sales, especially in China, which were helped by early buying before tariffs hit. Apple said tariffs might cost them $1.1 billion.
Amazon made more money than expected but warned profits might be smaller than people hoped. Amazon’s cloud services are growing more slowly than Microsoft’s and Google’s, causing some worries.
Meta did really well, growing its users and making more money from ads. They plan to spend more money on AI and new staff.
Microsoft beat earnings expectations thanks to its cloud business and AI investments. Microsoft is now the second company ever to be worth $4 trillion.
The market is feeling calmer with the VIX (a measure of market fear) at its lowest in six months.
💡Andrew’s Analysis:
The "Great Disconnect" Is Here
You're watching something Warren Buffett would call "the tale of two economies." Big Tech just committed to spending $364 billion on AI in 2025 (that's more than most countries' entire budgets), while people can't find jobs. This reminds me of the dot-com bubble when tech stocks soared while the broader economy struggled.
The Jobs Market Is Cracking
June jobs were revised from 147,000 down to just 14,000. May dropped from 144,000 to 19,000. That's not just a "miss" – that's economic gaslighting. The labor market's been weakening for months, but we're just finding out now.
Gold's $3,400 Signal: The Smart Money Speaks
Gold hitting $3,400 (up 30% this year) isn't just about inflation – it's about trust. When professional investors pile into gold, they're betting that governments will print money to solve problems. (Historically, they're usually right.)
Play the Disconnect:
Avoid the "AI Everything" trap – not every tech stock deserves a premium just because it mentions AI
Focus on cash-generating tech – Microsoft and Meta are actually profitable from AI; many others aren't
Personal Finance Advice
Build Your "Job Loss Buffer": With unemployment rising, you need 6-12 months of expenses saved. (Not next month – now.) Put it in high-yield savings accounts earning 4%+.
Lock in Current Rates: If you need a mortgage or car loan, apply now. The Fed might cut rates, but tariff-driven inflation could push them back up quickly.
What History Teaches Us
The 1970s Playbook: When Nixon imposed tariffs and inflation spiked, smart investors bought real assets (real estate, commodities, dividend-paying stocks) and avoided long-term bonds.
The Buffett Method: Warren Buffett's best returns came from buying great companies during economic uncertainty. When everyone else panics, that's your buying opportunity.
Red Flags to Watch
If unemployment hits 5% – that's recession territory
If the VIX stays above 25 – market fear is becoming permanent
If Big Tech capital expenditures start declining – the AI boom is over
My Advice:
Consider taking some profits from overextended tech stocks
If the jobs report stays weak, increase defensive positions
Watch for Fed rate cut signals (they might panic-cut to save the economy)
👉 For daily insights, follow me on Twitter/ X, Instagram Threads, or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
2) Important News & Events You Need to Know (with my analysis):
This week, we analyze:
1) The PELOSI Act, to ban stock trading for members of Congress, passed an 8-7 vote in the Senate Committee, and will go to the Senate to be voted on.
2) We received massive downward job revisions. 258,000 jobs vanished from the data in 2 months.
3) Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged, remains at 4.25% - 4.50%.1️⃣ The PELOSI Act, to ban stock trading for members of Congress, passed an 8-7 vote in the Senate Committee, and will go to the Senate to be voted on.
This week, the Senate committee squeaked by with an 8-7 vote to send the PELOSI Act — a bill that would ban stock trading for Congress members — to the full Senate.
💡Andrew’s Analysis:
For years, politicians have been caught buying and selling stocks while passing laws that move markets. Now, that may finally change. A Senate committee just approved a bill that bans lawmakers, presidents, and vice presidents from trading individual stocks. It passed by a tight 8-7 vote and heads to the full Senate next.
Why this matters:
This could be the biggest ethics reform in decades. For years, Americans watched Congress profit off insider info—while the rest of us were left guessing. If passed, the bill will give elected leaders 180 days to sell their stocks and prove they’re following the rules each year.The catch?
It doesn’t apply to Trump or his VP—yet. That part was removed to get the bill passed (for now). Trump says he “likes it conceptually” but later bashed it online.
2️⃣ We received massive downward job revisions. 258,000 jobs vanished from the data in 2 months.
The government said the U.S. added 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June than first reported. That’s not a small mistake—that’s a huge miss.
What’s causing this?
Economists say the mix of high interest rates, tariffs, weak immigration, and uncertainty is scaring employers. Many are freezing hiring or quietly laying people off.
💡Andrew’s Analysis:
The government admitted they massively overcounted jobs in May and June. We're talking about 258,000 jobs that never actually existed. May went from 144,000 jobs added to just 19,000. June dropped from 147,000 to 14,000.
Translation: The job market has been much weaker than anyone realized.
This isn't just bad data – it's a sign that we're heading into dangerous territory. When job revisions are this massive, it usually means:
The economy is weaker than policymakers thought
Businesses are already pulling back on hiring
We might be closer to a recession than anyone wants to admit
Historical Context: The last time we saw revisions this big outside of 2020 was back in 1979. You know what happened in the early 1980s? A nasty recession.
This reveals a classic case of confirmation bias – everyone wanted to believe the job market was strong, so they didn't question the numbers. But smart investors know to follow the data, not the narrative.
Advice:
Build an emergency fund NOW – aim for 6-12 months of expenses, not the usual 3-6
Recession-proof investments:
Utility stocks (people always need electricity)
Consumer staples (food, household goods)
Healthcare REITs (medical needs don't disappear)
If you're job hunting, move fast – the window for good opportunities might be closing
3️⃣ Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged, remains at 4.25% - 4.50%.
The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the fifth meeting in a row. Not everyone agreed: Two officials pushed for a rate cut, and President Trump is demanding rates to come down — fast.
💡Andrew’s Analysis:
Trump keeps demanding rate cuts, but Fed Chair Powell is trying to stay independent while the economy sends mixed signals.
This Decision Reveals a Deeper Problem.
The Fed is stuck in what economists call a "policy trilemma" – they can't fight inflation, support jobs, and keep Trump happy all at the same time.
Buffett once said, "When the tide goes out, you discover who's been swimming naked." Well, the Fed's high rates are like that receding tide, and they're starting to see which parts of the economy have been swimming naked.
The Long-Term Game:
This isn't just about interest rates – it's about who controls America's economic future. If Trump succeeds in pressuring the Fed, it could:
Undermine Fed independence (which has protected us from political money-printing for decades)
Fuel inflation if rates get cut too early
Create boom-bust cycles based on political timing instead of economic reality
Historical Parallel: Remember the 1970s when politicians pressured the Fed? We got stagflation – high inflation AND high unemployment. It was a disaster.
What This Means for Your Money:
The Fed's paralysis creates both opportunities and risks:
Opportunities:
High-yield savings accounts are still paying 4%+ – take advantage while you can
I-Bonds protect against inflation and pay decent rates
Real estate might get cheaper if rates stay high (but financing costs more)
Risks:
Bond prices could fall if the Fed eventually caves to pressure
Dollar strength might fade if other countries see our Fed as compromised
Market volatility will likely increase as investors guess the Fed's next move
Advice:
Lock in current CD rates if you have cash sitting around – 5% CDs won't last forever
Avoid long-term bonds – they'll get crushed if inflation comes back
Consider inflation hedges:
TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)
Real estate investment trusts (REITs)
Commodities like energy and agriculture
Keep debt manageable – if rates stay high, borrowing gets expensive fast
Other important headlines this week:
President Trump orders pharmaceutical companies to lower prices within 60 days or "every tool" will be used against them.
President Trump says Jerome Powell is "too stupid and too political" to be the Federal Reserve Chairman.
Bots now account for over half of global internet traffic, per FORTUNE.
👉 For daily insights, follow me on Twitter/ X, Instagram Threads, or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
3) Charts & Numbers To Know:
This week, we analyze:
1) Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now 30% of its total assets, the most in history.
2) The world's largest healthcare company is down 52% in 2025.
3) The US manufacturing recession is deepening. The ISM Manufacturing PMI index decreased to its lowest since November 2024, its 5th consecutive monthly contraction.
1️⃣ Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now 30% of its total assets, the most in history.
💡Andrew’s Analysis:
Cash is King.
This chart shows how much of Berkshire Hathaway's money is sitting in cash. Right now, that number is 30% of the company's total assets. This is the highest level in the company's modern history. It's more cash than he held before the dot-com crash of 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008.
Why It Matters: Warren Buffett is arguably the greatest investor of all time. When he can't find anything good to buy, it's a powerful signal that prices for stocks and companies are very high. He has a famous rule: "The first rule of an investment is don't lose money. And the second rule of an investment is don't lose money." By holding this much cash, he is saying that he believes the risk of losing money in today's market is too high.
This suggests that finding true value has become incredibly difficult. Buffett is famous for waiting for the perfect pitch to hit. As he says, "The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one that's in your sweet spot." Right now, he is telling the world that there are no pitches in his sweet spot. He would rather earn almost nothing on his cash than risk buying something at today's prices.
Advice:
Follow Buffett: If the world's best investor is being this cautious, maybe you should be too. This is not a time for wild risks. This is a time to review what you own and ask, "Is this a truly great company I want to hold for 10 years?"
Prepare Your Shopping List: Buffett is not holding cash because he's scared. He's holding cash because he is waiting for a sale. When prices eventually fall, he will go shopping. You should do the same. Make a list of great companies you'd love to own if their prices were 20% or 30% lower. When the sale comes, you'll be ready to act instead of panic.
Cash is Your Superpower: Your personal cash pile (your emergency fund) is the most important financial tool you have. It gives you options. It lets you walk away from a bad job, handle an unexpected car repair, or seize an opportunity. Buffett's cash gives him options; your cash gives you freedom.
Embrace Patience: Don't feel like you always have to be doing something with your money. Sometimes, the smartest move is to wait. Patience is a form of action.
2️⃣ The world's largest healthcare company is down 52% in 2025.
💡Andrew’s Analysis:
UnitedHealth's Crash
The stock of UnitedHealth Group (UNH), the biggest health insurance company in the world, has collapsed. The chart shows it falling off a cliff, down more than 52% this year alone. A stock that was once a safe, stable "blue-chip" investment has been cut in half.
Why It Matters: This is a huge warning sign for the entire healthcare industry. When the biggest player in a sector fails this badly, it means something is fundamentally broken. This could be a signal that the business of health insurance is facing a massive crisis.
This chart is also a powerful lesson against a common psychological trap: complacency. Investors often believe that huge, important companies are "too big to fail" or are automatically safe investments. This is proof that no company is invincible. The long-term risk is that the "safe" and predictable profits from the healthcare sector may be a thing of the past.
Advice:
Avoid The Falling Knife: There's a saying on Wall Street: "Don't try to catch a falling knife." A stock dropping this fast can keep dropping. Buying a stock just because it's "cheaper" than it was yesterday is a recipe for disaster.
Diversification is Your Only Protection: This chart is the single best argument for diversification. If all your retirement money was in this one "safe" stock, your savings would be cut in half. You must spread your money across many different companies and sectors. Some will go up, some will go down, but it protects you from one company's disaster ruining your entire financial life.
3️⃣ The US manufacturing recession is deepening. The ISM Manufacturing PMI index decreased to its lowest since November 2024, its 5th consecutive monthly contraction.
💡Andrew’s Analysis:
Manufacturing Slows Down
This chart shows that one out of every four US manufacturers laid people off last month. That is the highest number since the scary days of the 2020 pandemic. The problem is even deeper: the manufacturing sector has been shrinking for most of the last three years, and new orders for goods keep falling.
Why It Matters: Think of the economy as a big ship. Tech and services are the fun things you see on the deck. But manufacturing is the engine room down below. When the engine room starts sputtering and shutting down parts, the entire ship loses power. This is not a small problem. This is a sign of real weakness in the foundation of the economy.
Layoffs in manufacturing are often a leading indicator. These are real jobs, making real things. When these jobs disappear, it means less money for families to spend, which then hurts restaurants, stores, and the rest of the economy. This is how a slowdown in one area can spread and become a full-blown recession.
Advice:
This is more proof that the economy is weak. This is a time to favor "defensive" sectors. These are companies that sell things people need even in a bad economy. Think food companies, utility companies, and essential consumer goods.
Avoid Cyclicals: "Cyclical" companies are those that do well when the economy is strong (like car makers, airlines, and heavy machinery).
Reinforce Your Budget: With clear signs of economic weakness, it's time to get serious about your budget. Build up your emergency fund. Think twice about big purchases. A strong personal financial position is the best defense against a weak economy.
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🔒 Premium Research & Analysis 🔒
🤝 Today’s Premium Research & Analysis are brought to you by Pacaso!
❝The new foundation for real estate success is digital, and Pacaso leads the way. The luxury vacation home market is massive and in high demand, and their luxury co-ownership tech unlocks a a $1.3 trillion real estate market opportunity. They’ve already earned $110M+ in gross profits to date, including 41% YoY growth last year. Now they’re expanding access to equity in their company and have reserved the Nasdaq ticker $PCSO❞:
4) Stocks I’m Investing in (my stock picks, research and analysis):
This week, we analyze:
1) SentinelOne (Ticker: S) — The AI-Driven Cyber Bodyguard
2) Pagaya Technologies (Ticker: PGY) — AI That Actually Makes Money
3) Dave Inc. (Ticker: DAVE) — Fintech Underdog Winning Gen Z1️⃣ SentinelOne (Ticker: S) — The AI-Driven Cyber Bodyguard
Imagine your computer as your house, and hackers as burglars. Most security companies are like old-school alarm systems – they only tell you after someone breaks in. SentinelOne is different. It's like having a super-smart bodyguard with AI that stops burglars before they even touch your door.
Numbers That Matter:
Revenue growing at 23% per year (almost double the industry average)
$45 million in positive cash flow (they're making real money)
Trading at just 7x sales (way cheaper than competitors)
$6 billion market cap (still small enough to double or triple)
Buffett always talks about "moats" – things that protect a business from competition. SentinelOne has built the deepest moat in cybersecurity because:
Their AI learns from every attack – the more hackers try, the smarter it gets
Switching costs are huge – once you're protected, why risk changing?
Network effects – the more customers they have, the better their AI becomes
SentinelOne lost $208 million last quarter. But here's the thing – they're losing money on purpose. They're spending heavily to grab market share while the cybersecurity boom is just getting started.
Think about Amazon in the early 2000s. Jeff Bezos lost money for years because he was building something bigger. SentinelOne is doing the same thing in cybersecurity.
Every company in the world is moving to the cloud and using AI. Both create massive security risks. SentinelOne's AI-first approach makes it the obvious choice for companies that can't afford to get hacked.
Personal prediction: Within 3 years, every Fortune 500 company will either use SentinelOne or wish they did.
The Big Bet: You're not just betting on a cybersecurity company. You're betting that as AI becomes more powerful, the weapons used by hackers will too. You will need AI to fight AI. SentinelOne is on the front lines of that digital war, and they are armed for the future.
2️⃣ Pagaya Technologies (Ticker: PGY) — The AI Money Machine
Most AI companies are burning cash and promising profits "someday." Pagaya is different – they're already making money from AI, and lots of it.
Here's the growth story:
2020 revenue: Less than $100 million
2025 projection: $1.2 billion
2026 projection: $1.5 billion
YTD performance: Up 229%
Think of Pagaya as the "matchmaker" for money. Banks have cash to lend. People need loans. But banks are terrible at figuring out who won't pay them back. Pagaya's AI is like having a crystal ball that predicts who's good for the money.
The beauty is in the simplicity:
Banks pay Pagaya to find good borrowers
Pagaya's AI screens millions of people instantly
Everyone wins – banks make money, people get loans, Pagaya takes a cut
While traditional banks use credit scores from the 1950s, Pagaya uses AI that can analyze thousands of data points in seconds.
The result? They can approve good borrowers that banks would reject, and reject bad borrowers that banks would approve. It's like having insider information, but it's completely legal.
The US lending market is worth $15 trillion. That's not a typo – fifteen trillion dollars. If Pagaya captures just 1% of that market, it'd have $150 billion in revenue. Their current $2.3 billion market cap looks pretty cheap when you think about it that way.
If the economy crashes and people stop paying their loans, Pagaya could get hurt. But here's the counterargument – their AI might actually perform better during tough times because it can spot risky borrowers that human underwriters miss.
The Big Bet: You are betting on a simple idea: smarter decisions lead to more money. You are betting that data, not gut feelings, is the future of lending. Pagaya is making its partners richer and more efficient, and in return, it is becoming an essential pillar of the financial system.
3️⃣ Dave Inc. (Ticker: DAVE) — Fintech Underdog Winning Gen Z
Traditional banks are like Blockbuster in 2005 – they think they're invincible. Dave is like Netflix – they're giving customers what they actually want instead of what banks think they should want.
Think about your worst bank experience. Long lines, hidden fees, and talking to someone in a call center who doesn't care about your problems. Dave is the opposite of all that:
ExtraCash advances when you're short before payday
No overdraft fees (banks make $15 billion per year from these)
Side Hustle job portal to help you make extra money
Everything on your phone – no branches needed
The Numbers That Prove It's Working:
Up 175% this year (customers are voting with their wallets)
35% revenue growth projected (that's impressive for any company)
Actually profitable (unlike most fintech startups)
$3.2 billion market cap (tiny compared to traditional banks)
Dave isn't just another app – they're part of a revolution. Just like how Uber killed taxis and Airbnb hurt hotels, neobanks are going to hurt traditional banks.
The key insight: Young people would rather trust their money to an app than to a bank that charges them fees for everything.
This Could Be a 10-Bagger.
Dave's market cap is $3.2 billion. JPMorgan Chase is worth $600 billion. If Dave captures just 5% of JPMorgan's market share, the stock could go up 10x from here.
Sound crazy? So did the idea that people would get in cars with strangers (Uber) or stay in strangers' homes (Airbnb). Sometimes the crazy ideas are the ones that make you rich.
The Big Bet: You are betting on a massive shift in how people interact with their money. You're betting that the future of banking looks less like an old building and more like a friendly, helpful app on your phone. Dave is not just stealing customers from big banks; it is winning the next generation of consumers.
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5) Notable Insider Trades from Billionaires, Politicians and CEO’s:
1) Asbury Automotive Group ABG 0.00%↑
On August 1, 2025, Abrams Capital Management reported buying $10.57 million worth of Asbury Automotive Group $ABG shares at around $225 each.
This fund is led by David Abrams, a former protégé of Seth Klarman, and known for taking long-term, deep value bets, often called one of the best investors of his generation. So when Abrams loads up on a company, he's not betting on short-term noise—he’s betting on misunderstood value.
Asbury is one of the largest auto dealership chains in the U.S., selling new and used cars, and offering financing and repairs. It's been quietly expanding into the digital auto retailing space, competing with players like Carvana. With used car prices staying elevated and supply chain issues easing, dealers like Asbury could see strong margins ahead. Abrams likely sees long-term upside in a company trading well below its highs, with improving fundamentals in a stable, high-demand business.
Advice: If you're looking for a value play in consumer auto with steady cash flow and strong operations, follow Abrams here. Institutions loading up on boring businesses before they heat up is a Warren Buffett classic.
2) United Parcel Service UPS 0.00%↑
Carol Tomé, the CEO of UPS $UPS, piked up $1 million worth of stock on August 1, 2025, at $85.67 each. That’s her own skin in the game—and at a 52-week low, no less. Tomé has been a steady hand at the helm, previously the CFO of Home Depot, and is known for cost discipline and capital efficiency.
UPS has been under pressure lately with slowing global shipping volumes, cost inflation, and fierce competition from Amazon’s logistics expansion. But this insider buy sends a strong message: management sees value. When a CEO buys after a 30–40% drop, it usually means they believe in the company’s recovery.
Long-term view: The world still runs on packages. E-commerce is sticky, and UPS is a global brand with unmatched infrastructure. Temporary headwinds often create long-term entry points.
Advice: Look for high-quality blue chips that insiders are buying during fear cycles. UPS could be a classic rebound story once macro headwinds ease.
3) MSCI Inc. MSCI 0.00%↑
Henry Fernandez, CEO and Chairman of MSCI $MSCI, bought a massive $6.73 million worth of shares on July 28, 2025, at $542.87 each. That’s a rare move in a stock that’s already seen massive institutional support from long-term investors like BlackRock.
MSCI powers the investment world. Its indices (like the MSCI World or MSCI EM) are embedded in trillions of dollars of ETFs and portfolios. It also runs ESG ratings, risk models, and financial analytics tools for asset managers and banks.
Lately, the stock has pulled back as markets debate the future of ESG mandates and fee compression in indexing. But Fernandez stepping in now suggests he sees a disconnect between the company’s long-term monopoly-like business model and its current valuation.
Why it matters: Fernandez has built MSCI into one of the most profitable, scalable financial data companies on Earth. When a founder-CEO buys nearly $7M of his own stock, you better believe he sees compounding ahead.
4) Charter Communications CHTR 0.00%↑
On July 31, 2025, Chris Winfrey, CEO of Charter Communications $CHTR, bought $1 million worth of stock at $273.10 per share. This signals real confidence in the business. Winfrey’s been vocal about Charter’s long-term push into broadband infrastructure and 5G wireless.
Charter is a cable and broadband giant. While it’s faced cord-cutting pressure like the rest of the media space, its broadband subscription growth has been solid, and it’s investing in rural expansion through government-backed infrastructure grants.
This buy shows the CEO believes the market is undervaluing their recurring revenue engine and long-term strategic positioning.
My takeaway: When a CEO with operational insight personally bets seven figures on his own stock, it’s often a leading indicator. As data demand keeps rising, fiber-rich operators like Charter will stay essential.
6) Trade of the Week (options trading):
Bullish on Bellring Brands Inc. BRBR 0.00%↑
There’s been a huge surge in call option trading for Bellring Brands. Over 21,000 call contracts — that's 26 times what you'd usually see in a day. Most of this action centers around options that expire on August 15th, 2025, with traders focused on what’s called a call vertical spread (they’re buying the $60 and selling the $65 call at about $1.00 each, while the stock trades at $54.48).
When traders buy way more calls than puts — especially in such high volume — it’s usually a signal that they think the stock price is going higher, likely soon. In other words, market sentiment is pretty bull-headed right now.
Bellring Brands makes protein and nutrition products, things like shakes and bars. The company is about to announce its earnings next week. If you remember stories of Warren Buffett scooping up shares before a big positive announcement, that’s the vibe here — traders are betting the news will be good.
If the earnings report is strong, options buyers will see big profits. Even if you don’t trade options yourself, heavy call activity can push the regular stock price higher. But, remember, if the company disappoints, those bets can quickly lose value. For investors, high demand for calls is a signal to monitor earnings and watch for a possible jump in the stock.
Bullish on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals AUPH 0.00%↑
Call option trading exploded here, too, with 2,591 contracts traded, which is 23 times the normal pace. The focus is on August 15th, 2025, $8.00 strike calls, with over 1,300 contracts bought at $1.65 (at the top of the price range), indicating that buyers were eager.
The ratio of calls to puts is heavily in favor of calls, which screams optimism. This is new money coming in — not just people closing old bets — so it’s a fresh, bullish sign.
Aurinia, a company that works on kidney disease treatments (kidney lupus drugs, specifically), just announced quarterly revenue that beat what analysts expected. The stock jumped over 7%, and traders are betting that this momentum can keep driving the price up, at least through August.
This sort of options buying usually means traders expect the stock to keep rising, especially given the earnings beat. In the long term, strong results this quarter could mean that Aurinia’s products are gaining traction, which could attract even more investors and continue to drive share prices higher.
7) Stocks to Watch (catalysts, earnings, and news):
1) Sarepta Therapeutics $SRPT up +38% on 7/29
Sarepta develops gene therapies for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. It jumped after regulators lifted a hold on its Elevidys treatment for patients with walking difficulties following a safety review. That move shows growing confidence in its technology. Long-term gene therapy can reshape treatment for rare diseases and command premium pricing. You can watch for its next trial readouts as buy signals and consider adding before major regulatory milestones.
2) Idexx Laboratories $IDXX up +26% on 8/4
Idexx builds diagnostic tests and lab tools for vets and dairy farms. It climbed after Q2 profit and sales beat forecasts on strong demand for its animal health tests. Rising pet care spending and new test rollouts fuel its growth. In the long run, its leading market share and recurring revenue can drive stable returns. You might scale in on any pullbacks tied to broader market moves.
3) Energizer $ENR up +24% on 8/4
Energizer makes batteries and portable lighting. It rose after beating Q3 revenue estimates and lifting full-year earnings guidance to above Street views. Every day battery needs give it a durable cash flow stream. Over time, steady demand and pricing power can fuel dividend growth. You could build a position and hold through market swings for reliable income.
4) LendingClub $LC up +23% on 7/30
LendingClub runs an online lending platform that matches borrowers with loans. It rallied on strong Q2 originations up thirty-two percent and profit beat forecasts. As consumers embrace digital finance, its model can scale with low marginal cost. Long term, you can benefit from rising loan volume and fee income. Consider layering in via dollar cost averaging ahead of credit data updates.
5) Fortrea $FTRE up +21% on 8/4
Fortrea offers contract development and manufacturing for drug makers. It soared on an analyst upgrade, highlighting its long-term compounding opportunity over the next decade. As pharma outsourcing grows, its steady service revenues can build a strong backlog. You can add on dips tied to near-term noise and hold to capture its facility expansions.
6) Reddit $RDDT up +21% on 8/1
Reddit runs a social discussion platform with user-generated forums. It surged after beating Q2 earnings and raising Q3 revenue guidance on strong ad sales. High user engagement and community loyalty drive durable ad streams. You could buy on pullbacks before new product rollouts.
7) Teradyne $TER up +19% on 7/30
Teradyne makes automated test equipment for semiconductors and robotics. It jumped after Q2 results beat estimates and management flagged strong AI chip demand. As AI and 5G chips ramp up, you can benefit from rising test volumes. Consider adding on-market dips to play the chip build cycle.
👉For more insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads, and turn on notifications.
8) Real Estate Trends & Housing Market Analysis:
Inventory is rising, homes are sitting longer, and price cuts are creeping in—especially across the South and West.
In July, active listings topped 1.1 million for the third straight month—up 25% year over year—marking the 21st month in a row of rising inventory. That sounds big, but here’s the catch: supply is still 13% below pre-COVID levels, meaning we’re not “oversupplied,” just less underbuilt.
Homes now take a week longer to sell than they did last summer—58 days on average. That’s the longest since 2020.
More listings + slower sales = buyers finally have room to negotiate.
The South and West—think Austin, Miami, Phoenix—are cooling the fastest. Prices in 19 major metros have dropped below their 2022 peaks, and 33 of the top 50 cities saw prices fall year over year. Sellers in these markets are cutting prices and pulling listings—Miami delistings nearly doubled in a month.
Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest are holding firm. Places like Providence, Hartford, and Buffalo are still seeing double-digit price growth since 2022. Fewer homes, stronger demand, and limited new construction have kept prices elevated.
This regional divergence is the new normal. It’s no longer “one housing market”—it’s dozens of micro-markets moving at different speeds.
The market’s shift is psychological as much as it is financial. Sellers are anchored to 2022 prices, while buyers are glued to 2025 mortgage rates. That’s causing a standoff. In many metros, neither side is blinking—yet.
Price cuts are up, but sellers are also delisting instead of negotiating. In Miami, only 17.7% of listings had price reductions—well below the national average—yet homes are sitting nearly 16 days longer. That tells you people would rather wait than sell below their “mental price.” This is a classic anchoring bias, and it slows down corrections.
Long term, this tug-of-war means the market will likely stay stagnant but stable, unless mortgage rates fall meaningfully.
Interest Rates
Mortgage rates are stuck around 6.7%, and the Fed just held rates steady again. With no major inflation shocks yet, markets expect rate cuts later in 2025, which could nudge mortgage rates closer to 6.4% by year-end. That’s not low, but it could be just enough to unstick the market.
If rates fall, expect pent-up demand to return quickly. Buyers sitting on the sidelines may jump back in, and sellers who locked in 3% mortgages may finally feel it's worth upgrading.
What It Means for You:
This market isn’t crashing—it’s rebalancing. And rebalancing creates opportunities.
🟩 Buyers
This is your moment to shop patiently. More listings, slower sales, and fewer bidding wars mean more room to negotiate. In cooling markets like Austin, Denver, or Las Vegas, consider low offers—sellers are cracking, slowly. But watch mortgage rates closely; when they drop, competition will spike again.
🟥 Sellers
The window to get top dollar is closing in many markets. Don’t chase yesterday’s price—price competitively from day one, or risk sitting unsold. In hot markets (like Providence or Grand Rapids), you still have leverage. Elsewhere, you need to move fast, or prepare to wait.
🟨 Investors
This is the era of selective opportunity. Look to undervalued metros with price drops but strong long-term fundamentals—like Phoenix, Raleigh, or San Antonio. Focus on properties where cash flow works at today’s rates. And in places with rising delistings, track motivated sellers. Distress doesn’t always scream—it whispers.
👉For more insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads or BlueSky, and turn on notifications.
9) Interest Rate Predictions (short-term):
In the short term, interest rates should remain go down.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a big driver of mortgage rates, is slowly moving down. That means mortgage rates should fall a little next week. But don’t expect a big drop.
Thirty-year mortgage rates are stuck between about 6.5 percent and 7 percent. So, if you want to buy or refinance a house, rates are hovering at these levels for now.
The Federal Reserve has kept short-term interest rates steady, holding them around 4.25 to 4.5 percent for several months. The Fed is cautious. It’s watching inflation, trade tensions, and economic signs before making moves.
I expect some rate cuts starting by late summer or early fall, but not huge ones. It’s like the Fed is saying, “We’ll take it slow.” Even President Trump has pushed the Fed to cut rates faster, but the Fed hasn’t bent yet.
Rates are going down just a bit for two main reasons:
First, some inflation signs seem to be calming, which makes borrowing less costly. Second, progress in trade talks and easing tariffs could remove economic pressures that pushed rates higher last year. Also, weaker economic numbers lately make investors believe the Fed will lower rates soon to help the economy.
Slowly falling interest rates could push mortgage rates down to near 6.4 percent by the end of the year and perhaps even closer to 5 percent over the next few years. Lower mortgage rates make buying a home more affordable. That drives demand, pushes up home prices, and can help the housing market recover after a tough stretch.
Current Interest Rates:
The 30-year mortgage is now 6.57%, which is -0.24 lower than last week, -0.18 lower than last month, and +0.17 higher than last year:
10) My Technical Analysis (S&P 500, Tech Stocks, Bitcoin):
1) S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑ (Short-term): Slightly Negative
The S&P 500 is showing signs of early weakness, so traders should watch for more downside over the next few weeks.
The S&P 500 has weakened in the short term because it fell below a key support level of about 6,250. This means sellers are starting to take control, and the price looks likely to drop further. The RSI, a signal that shows market strength, is falling, too. That’s a warning sign that the price may keep sliding.
2) Tech Stocks QQQ 0.00%↑ (Short-term): Slightly Positive
The NASDAQ holds a more positive outlook than the S&P 500. The big tech stocks it tracks might hold their ground better than the broader market.
It broke below a fast-moving upward path, hinting the price might slow down or flatten, but there’s support coming in at 21,700 points, and resistance near 23,300 points. The RSI is also falling, showing some risk of price falling more.
The Nasdaq is taking a breather but not giving up.
3) Bitcoin $BTC (Short-term): Negative
Bitcoin is showing a negative technical picture. It broke below an important support zone in the short term, signaling a slower rise or even a potential drop. The price bounced back after a false move above resistance, but it faces major support at $110,000 and resistance around $120,800. Volume has not lined up well with price moves, which weakens the market’s strength. The technical indicators suggest Bitcoin could fall more if it breaks below $114,000. If it doesn’t find support, the drop could be steep.
11) Economic Outlook and Market Sentiment:
Sentiment and indicators paint a bullish but nuanced picture. You’ve got moderate greed, rising retail optimism, and broad economic growth—yet pockets of fragility.
1) Fear & Greed Index = Greed
The Fear & Greed Index sits at 57, in the Greed zone. Of the seven sub-measures, price strength and breadth scream greed, while put/call ratios flash fear, and volatility and momentum sit neutrally.
Long-term view: Moderate greed today hints at steady confidence, not froth. But it also warns that overconfidence bias could push markets into a sharp pullback if earnings disappoint.
Advice:
If greed climbs past 75, trim speculative positions.
If fear plunges below 25, scout beaten-down quality names for entry.
Use the Index with valuation and earnings data—not as a lone signal.
2) AAII Investor Index (6-Month Outlook) = Neutral
Investors are more bullish this week: 40.3% expect gains (above the 37.5% norm), while neutral and bearish views fell to 26.7% and 33.0%. The bull-bear spread now sits at +7.3%, above its long-run average of +6.5%.
Long-term view: A sustained bull-bear spread above its norm shows healthy confidence.
Advice:
If bullish readings exceed 50% for several weeks, consider adding hedges or defensive stocks.
If bearish readings spike above 40%, look for value plays in beaten-up sectors.
3) Economic Indicators = Mixed (Neutral/Positive)
Overall, the economy is growing, but some cracks are forming.
We have expansion across most fronts: housing permits, retail sales, wage growth, and credit spreads all point up. Yet job sentiment stays in recession territory, ISM new orders remain weak, and the yield curve sits in caution mode.
Long-term view: Healthy expansion supports corporate profits and equity gains. But persistent soft spots—like sluggish business sentiment—could cool growth by year-end.
12) Important Earnings Announcements:
Here’s what you need to know for the most important earnings releases this week:
Palantir – Watch Palantir because talk of new government and defense contracts, plus strong AI growth, has been heating up. Bulls love Palantir’s deep ties to Uncle Sam and potential for more military work, but bears worry about high valuation if growth slows. This earnings release will show if Palantir is landing big new deals. If they beat, shares could rocket. Look for contract wins and updates on their AI platform for the next big move.
AMD – All eyes are on AMD with the ongoing boom in AI and chips. AMD has been winning market share from rivals, but if demand for AI or PC chips slips, it could spook investors. Pay close attention to what they say about trends in AI, gaming, and server chips. If guidance is strong, bulls will celebrate. If they show weakness or cautious forecasts, watch for a pullback.
Supermicro – Supermicro makes server hardware, and the big catalyst is demand for AI and cloud data centers. Investors are riding the AI wave here. If Supermicro shows it can keep delivering and manage costs, that’s bullish. If they report weak sales or shrinking order books, look out. A strong quarter could mean the rally keeps rolling, but any hint of falling demand could turn traders cautious.
Eli Lilly – Lilly has been red hot thanks to new weight-loss and diabetes drugs. Investors are looking to see if sales are growing as fast as Wall Street hopes, especially with rival drugs in the mix. Any positive updates on drug approvals or demand is bullish. Misses on sales or big competition could trigger a selloff. Steady drug growth keeps this story hot for the long term.
MercadoLibre – MercadoLibre is Latin America’s e-commerce king and also runs a booming payments business. Big growth, but currency swings and local economies can surprise (up or down). If MercadoLibre shows user numbers and payments volumes are still rising fast, bulls will cheer. Trouble with local inflation or weak guidance might bring out sellers.
Celsius – Celsius is a top energy drink brand growing like crazy, but it’s an up-and-comer in a crowded space. Bulls want to see high sales and good distribution deals. If management raises their outlook, shares could jump. But if rivals bite into their growth or margins slip, bears might jump in.
Hims & Hers Health – This digital health platform is all about growth in telehealth meds and subscriptions. Look for strong new user numbers and any new product launches. News of partnerships, higher sales, or guidance lifts the bull case. Disappointing bookings or regulatory headaches could be bearish.
13) Important Economic Events:
1) July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – Tuesday
This report shows how the services side of the economy is doing—think restaurants, hospitals, real estate, travel. Since services make up 70% of the U.S. economy, this number is important.
Why it matters: If the PMI rises, it means businesses are growing and hiring. If it falls, it signals slowing demand. That affects inflation, Fed decisions, and investor confidence.
2) 10-Year Treasury Auction – Wednesday
The 10-year Treasury yield sets the tone for mortgage rates, auto loans, and stock valuations. The auction shows how much demand there is for U.S. debt.
Why it matters:
Strong demand = lower yields = lower borrowing costs.
Weak demand = higher yields = tighter financial conditions.
The bond market moves quietly, but it steers the ship.
3) Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday
This weekly snapshot shows how many people filed for unemployment. It's a real-time look at layoffs—which the Fed watches closely.
Why it matters: A sudden spike in claims would mean the job market is weakening—bad for the economy but good for rate-cut hopes. A drop signals strength, which could delay any Fed pivot.
4) About 20% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings
This is a key stretch in earnings season. Big names are reporting, and investors want to see revenue growth, strong guidance, and how companies are handling costs.
Why it matters: This isn’t just about earnings beats—it’s about the narrative. Are companies confident? Are they warning about slowing demand? That shapes market tone.
👋My Final Thoughts:
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