💥Investing Research & Market Analysis [January 2026]
5 Stock Picks for 2026's "AI Infrastructure" Trade; Insider Trades; Macro Outlook; and Interest Rate Predictions for 2026
👋 Good morning my friend and thank you for joining 108,000 subscribers who trust this newsletter to get smarter with money, investing, and the economy!
📬 In this issue we analyze:
Part I - Stocks
1. My Stock Picks & Research
2. Insider Trades (Billionaires, Politicians, CEOs)
3. Stocks to Watch (Earnings this Week)
Part II - Macro
4. Economic Outlook & Market Sentiment
5. Important Events this Week
Part III - Real Estate
6. Real Estate Market Analysis
7. Interest Rate PredictionsThis issue has a lot of great advice to help you build wealth but before we get into it please help us and:
Hit the LIKE button❤️ on this post and share this newsletter with friends & family to help them get smarter with money!
Become a paid subscriber and support our research and writing! (Get a 30-day free trial with this link) (learn about the benefits here)
(1) Stock Picks, Research, and Analysis:
My core idea is simple: Invest in companies with unshakable competitive advantages that are also riding massive, long-term growth waves.
In this issue, we analyze:
(1) Amazon $AMZN
(2) Alphabet $GOOGL
(3) Broadcom $AVGO
(4) MercadoLibre $MELI
(5) UiPath $PATHThe one thing nobody talks about in the AI race? It’s not about who has the best chips anymore. It’s about who can actually power them.
During my years on Wall Street, I watched countless “paradigm shifts” come and go. Most were hype. This one is different. The companies below share a common thread: they’re not chasing AI. They’re building the infrastructure, platforms, and distribution networks that make AI possible. That’s where the real money is made.
(1) Amazon AMZN 0.00%↑
Here’s what most people get wrong about Amazon: they still think of it as an e-commerce company. It’s not. Amazon is an AI infrastructure company that happens to sell stuff online.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) now generates 66% of Amazon’s total operating profits. Read that again. Two-thirds of Amazon’s profit comes from cloud computing, not cardboard boxes.
In Q3, AWS grew revenue at 20%, its fastest pace in several years. That acceleration matters because AWS has become the backbone for countless AI-focused businesses. When companies build AI applications, they need massive computing power. And most of them rent that power from AWS.
But here’s what really caught my attention: Amazon’s core commerce business is also thriving. Online sales grew 10%. Third-party seller services grew 12%. Both numbers represent recent highs. The advertising business? Up 24%.
The contrarian angle: Amazon stock rose only 6% in 2025, far underperforming the broader market. That gap between business performance and stock performance usually closes. And it usually closes in favor of the fundamentals.
Think of Amazon like a flywheel with three engines: commerce generates cash, AWS drives profits, and advertising adds margin. When all three accelerate simultaneously (like now), the compounding effect is powerful.
Here’s what matters for 2026:
AI demand is shifting from experiments to production. That means bigger, steadier usage, and it sticks (switching clouds is painful).
Amazon is building leverage in chips and infrastructure. If AWS can offer customers a menu (Nvidia plus Amazon’s own chips), it can protect supply, control costs, and defend margins.
The setup is simple: if AWS growth stays strong, the market tends to “re-rate” Amazon because profits can expand without retail needing a miracle.
What to watch:
AWS growth rate and backlog.
AI capacity constraints (if AWS can’t deliver GPUs and compute, growth gets capped).
Margins (AI can lift revenue but also eats capex).
Advice:
If you want “AI picks” without single-product risk, Amazon is a clean way to own the toll road. You’re not betting on one model winning. You’re betting that everyone needs compute.
(2) Alphabet GOOG 0.00%↑
Remember when everyone wrote off Alphabet in the AI race? ChatGPT launched, and suddenly Google Search seemed destined for obsolescence. Analysts warned that Alphabet had lost its way.
Those predictions aged poorly.
Alphabet’s Gemini has emerged as one of the top generative AI models. OpenAI recently declared a “code red” regarding Alphabet’s capabilities. That’s the equivalent of the market leader admitting the underdog caught up.
In Q3, Alphabet reported strong results across the board. Revenue rose 16% year over year. Diluted EPS jumped 35%. But here’s what surprised everyone: Google Search, the “dying” business, grew revenue 15%. That’s remarkable for a mature business unit that many expected AI to cannibalize.
Google Cloud posted even better numbers. Revenue rose 33%, and operating margins expanded from 17% to 24%. That margin expansion signals the business is scaling efficiently.
The secret weapon nobody’s talking about: Alphabet partnered with Broadcom years ago to develop custom AI chips called Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). These chips are now in their seventh generation, giving Alphabet a massive cost advantage in training AI models. Here’s the kicker: Alphabet is considering selling TPUs to Meta. If that happens, it opens an entirely new revenue stream that analysts haven’t priced in.
Alphabet trades at 30 times forward earnings, in line with peers. The stock rose 65% in 2025, so repeating that performance in 2026 seems unlikely. But steady double-digit growth from a company with this much AI optionality makes it compelling.
Why 2026 will work:
Search cash flow funds AI. Alphabet can price aggressively and still survive (most rivals can’t).
Custom chips are the hidden moat. Alphabet has years of real-world deployment experience with TPUs, which can lower cost per unit of compute.
Cloud is the swing factor. If Google Cloud keeps scaling with improving margins, the story becomes “three engines” (Search, Cloud, YouTube/ads), not one.
What to watch:
Search growth and ad pricing.
Cloud margins (this is where “AI is profitable” shows up).
Monetization of Gemini (not just benchmarks, but paid usage and retention).
Advice:
Alphabet is the “value AI” play. The edge is not drama. The edge is cheap distribution plus cheap compute, and that is lethal over time.
(3) Broadcom AVGO 0.00%↑
Most people think Nvidia has an unassailable monopoly on AI chips. Most people are wrong.
Broadcom has quietly emerged as the most credible challenger to Nvidia’s dominance. The company designs custom AI accelerators called ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits). These chips are pre-programmed for specific tasks and consume less power than general-purpose GPUs.
Here’s why that matters: as AI shifts from training (building models) to inference (running them), cost efficiency becomes critical. Inference is an ongoing expense. Companies can’t afford to burn money on power-hungry chips forever. Broadcom’s ASICs deliver better performance at lower price points for specific workloads.
The numbers tell the story. In fiscal Q4, Broadcom’s AI semiconductor revenue hit $6.5 billion and grew 74% year over year. For comparison, Nvidia’s data center division grew 66% during the same period. Broadcom’s AI division is growing faster.
The customer list reads like a who’s who of tech giants. Alphabet, OpenAI, and Anthropic have all partnered with Broadcom. The company says its three earliest custom-AI chip customers represent a $60 billion market opportunity by fiscal 2027. A fourth customer, Anthropic, has placed over $20 billion in orders. A fifth just signed a $1 billion deal.
Wall Street expects monster growth. Revenue is projected to rise 50% in fiscal 2026 to $96 billion. In fiscal 2027, growth is forecasted at 36%, pushing revenue to $130 billion. That’s an acceleration from fiscal 2025’s 24% growth.
Bank of America calls Broadcom’s position “upper-hand” in the AI market. Mizuho named it their “TOP PICK.” The thesis is simple: companies want alternatives to Nvidia, and Broadcom is the only company delivering at scale.
Why this matters for 2026 and 2027:
Hyperscalers want control. They don’t want to be price takers forever.
Inference economics push customization. If you run models nonstop, every cost drop compounds.
Broadcom is positioned as the builder behind the builders. It helps the giants turn “we want a chip” into “we shipped a chip.”
What to watch:
Customer concentration (big wins are great, but lumpy).
Gross margin trend (custom work can change mix).
Deployment cadence (design wins are nice, shipped volume is the payoff).
Advice:
Broadcom is how you bet on “AI spending continues” even if the hardware mix changes. If the world moves from GPUs to a blend of GPUs plus ASICs, Broadcom can be a main winner.
(4) MercadoLibre MELI 0.00%↑
If I told you there’s a company that duplicated Amazon’s e-commerce model, added a fintech arm, and operates in a region with huge untapped potential, you’d probably be interested.
That company exists. It’s called MercadoLibre.
MercadoLibre dominates e-commerce across 19 Latin American countries. It served 76.8 million unique active buyers last quarter. Its digital payments platform, Mercado Pago, serves 72.2 million monthly active users. The company essentially built Amazon and PayPal in one, tailored for Latin America.
Here’s why Latin America is special. Grand View Research expects the region’s e-commerce market to grow at 17.4% annually through 2030. IMARC Group projects the fintech market will expand at 15.1% annually through 2034. Income levels are rising. Internet penetration is increasing. And millions of unbanked customers are joining the digital economy for the first time.
From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect MercadoLibre’s revenue and EPS to grow at a 29% and 30% compound annual growth rate, respectively. The stock trades at 33 times 2026 earnings. That’s reasonable for a company with this growth profile.
The opportunity most people miss: Recent U.S. military intervention in Venezuela could pave the way for MercadoLibre’s return to that market. The company effectively exited Venezuela in 2017 due to the crisis. If conditions stabilize, it’s a free option on a new growth market.
The stock is down 25% from its all-time high. For a company growing revenue at 29% annually with dominant market share, that’s an attractive entry point.
Why it will work in 2026:
The flywheel is real: more buyers brings more sellers, more volume brings better logistics, and payments become the default.
Fintech is the margin lever. Payments can lead to lending and banking products, which can lift revenue per user.
The risk is also fintech. When you expand credit, you take credit risk. You have to watch loss rates and funding costs.
What to watch:
Credit quality (loss provisions, delinquency).
Brazil and Mexico execution (they drive the story).
Take rate and logistics efficiency (proof the flywheel is compounding, not stalling).
Advice:
MELI is a “growth plus real usage” bet. If you want exposure outside the US mega-cap trade, this is a strong candidate.
MercadoLibre Q3 Revenue Growth by Country
(5) UiPath PATH 0.00%↑
UiPath trades at just 5 times forward sales. For context, most AI-adjacent companies trade at multiples two to three times higher. So either the market is missing something, or UiPath is fundamentally flawed.
I believe the market is missing something.
UiPath started in robotic process automation (RPA), which uses software bots to perform simple, repetitive tasks. That foundation now positions the company to lead a massive emerging category: AI agent orchestration.
Think about what’s happening. Every major software vendor is launching AI agents. Microsoft has Copilot. Salesforce has Einstein. Google has its own agents. Soon, organizations will have dozens of AI agents from different vendors, each doing different things. Who coordinates them? Who manages compliance? Who prevents chaos?
That’s where UiPath comes in. Its new Maestro platform manages both traditional software bots and AI agents, assigning the right task to the right technology. AI agents handle complex problems. Software bots handle simple ones. The combination saves money and prevents “AI agent sprawl.”
Revenue growth accelerated to 16% last quarter. The company recently signed partnerships with leading AI companies. This is still early innings. If UiPath becomes the standard for AI agent orchestration, the stock could double from here within a few years.
Why it matters:
AI agents are powerful but costly. Cheaper bots still win many tasks.
Orchestration becomes the control layer. You route work to the right tool (agent vs bot), track it, audit it, and keep it compliant.
UiPath has the “enterprise plumbing” advantage. It already sits in workflows and legacy systems.
What to watch:
Net retention and re-acceleration (proof customers expand spend).
Platform adoption (are customers buying the “orchestration” story, or just renewing old RPA?).
Competitive pressure (big platforms will push their own orchestration).
Advice:
PATH is a classic asymmetric bet: low expectations, big upside if it becomes the default control plane. But you need proof in metrics, not slides.
💡 Final Thought:
What do these five companies have in common?
They’re all infrastructure plays. Not in the physical sense, but in the business sense. They provide the platforms, services, and distribution networks that other companies depend on.
Amazon provides the cloud infrastructure where AI applications run.
Alphabet provides the search platform and AI models that power the web.
Broadcom provides the chips that make AI computing affordable.
MercadoLibre provides the e-commerce and payments infrastructure for Latin America.
UiPath provides the orchestration layer for enterprise automation.
This is the pattern I’ve seen work over and over in my 20 years in finance: bet on infrastructure, not applications. During the Gold Rush, the people who sold picks and shovels made more money than most miners. The same principle applies here.
When everyone’s chasing the next hot AI startup, the real winners are the companies providing the tools those startups need to operate.
Advice: Don't just chase the shiny object. Look for the companies that own the infrastructure. These companies have deep "moats" (competitive advantages) that protect their profits. In 2026, the market will reward companies that can execute profitably, not just those with cool stories. Invest in the rails, not just the trains.
👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
(2) Insider Trades from Billionaires, Politicians, and CEOs:
When people with deep knowledge, such as politicians who set policy, executives who run the company, or legendary investors, put their own money on the line, it sends a powerful signal. Pay attention.
This week, we analyze:
(1) Alphabet $GOOGL
(2) Bitwise Bitcoin ETF $BITB
(3) SPDR S&P 500 ETF $SPY
(4) Nike $NKE
(5) Lesaka Technologies $LSAK
(6) Sunrise Realty Trust $SUNS(1) Alphabet $GOOGL has attracted significant buying from Representative Cleo Fields, a Democrat from Louisiana. Between November 30 and December 10, Fields made three separate purchases totaling between $200K and $500K across multiple transactions. The trades were filed on December 18, 2025. Fields bought at prices ranging from $312 to $317 per share.
This timing aligns with Alphabet's emergence as a generative AI leader and strong Q3 results showing 16% revenue growth. The consistent buying pattern over multiple days suggests conviction rather than a one-time trade. As a member of the House Financial Services Committee, Fields has access to hearings and briefings on technology regulation and AI policy that could inform his investment decisions. He lives close to market structure, banks, and risk sentiment (which often influences big-tech flows).
(2) Bitwise Bitcoin ETF $BITB attracted multiple purchases from Senator Dave McCormick, a Republican from Pennsylvania. McCormick made two separate buys on November 25 and November 27, 2025, both filed on December 26, 2025. Each transaction was in the $50K to $100K range at prices around $48 to $49 per share. McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO at Bridgewater Associates, brings significant financial markets expertise.
As a senator, he sits on committees that influence cryptocurrency regulation. McCormick sits on Senate Banking and also Energy and Natural Resources, which puts him close to the two big Bitcoin drivers people ignore: policy tone and energy narratives. The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF provides direct Bitcoin exposure through a regulated vehicle, making these purchases particularly notable given the ongoing regulatory discussions around digital assets.
(3) SPDR S&P 500 ETF $SPY saw buying from Representative Rob Bresnahan, a Republican from Pennsylvania. The trade was executed November 18, 2025, and filed December 22, 2025. The purchase was in the $50K to $100K range. SPY is the most liquid and widely traded ETF tracking the S&P 500. This broad market purchase suggests general bullish sentiment on U.S. equities rather than a specific sector bet.
(4) Nike $NKE witnessed a significant vote of confidence from new CEO Elliott Hill. On December 29, 2025, Hill purchased 16,388 shares at $61.10, spending approximately $1 million of his own money. The filing date was December 30, 2025. This represents Hill’s first open market purchase since becoming CEO in October 2024. Following his buy, Apple CEO Tim Cook (a Nike board member) purchased $3 million worth of shares, and director Robert Swan added roughly $500K. The combined insider buying totaled nearly $4.5 million.
Here’s why this matters: Nike stock has lost nearly half its value over three years. Hill was brought in as a turnaround CEO after the previous leadership struggled with China weakness, inventory problems, and competitive threats. When a new CEO puts $1 million of personal money at risk, he’s telling the market he believes his turnaround plan will work. Hill has 32 years of Nike experience and helped grow the company to $39 billion in revenue before retiring in 2020. He knows where the bodies are buried. Nike recently announced a “Win Now” strategy and restructured its C-suite to remove layers and improve execution.
(5) Lesaka Technologies $LSAK saw a massive purchase from Executive Chairman Ali Mazanderani. Filed January 2, 2026, for a trade on December 31, 2025, Mazanderani bought 1.8 million shares at $5.00 per share for a total of $9 million. This increased his ownership by 343%. Lesaka provides payment and financial technology services in emerging markets, primarily South Africa. A $9 million bet from the Executive Chairman suggests strong conviction in the company's direction. When insiders increase their stake by 343%, they're betting their personal fortune on success.
(6) Sunrise Realty Trust $SUNS attracted buying from Leonard Tannenbaum, the company's Executive Chairman and 10% owner. Filed December 30, 2025, Tannenbaum purchased 137,000 shares at $9.50 for approximately $1.3 million. This increased his position by 4%, bringing his total stake to over 3.7 million shares. Sunrise Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust. Tannenbaum's continued accumulation as a major shareholder signals confidence in the underlying real estate assets and dividend sustainability.
👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
(3) Stocks to Watch (Earnings this Week):
Here’s what you need to know for the most important earnings this week:
1) Constellation Brands - $STZ This is the giant behind Modelo and Corona.
What to Watch: The Bull Case relies on their beer business continuing to dominate the US market despite economic pressure. The Bear Case to watch is their wine and spirits division, which has been a drag on performance. Look for comments on consumer spending strength.
2) Tilray - $TLRY One of the most popular cannabis stocks among retail investors.
What to Watch: This is a volatility play. The Bull Case hinges on any updates regarding US drug rescheduling or German legalization progress. The Bear Case is their cash burn; watch to see if they are losing less money than the previous quarter.
3) Applied Digital - $APLD A hot stock in the AI data center infrastructure space.
What to Watch: This is a “show me” quarter. Investors want to see if the hype around AI data center demand is converting into actual revenue. Any delay in project timelines could send the stock tumbling.
4) Angiodynamics - $ANGO A medical device maker for vascular treatments.
What to Watch: Watch for the adoption rates of their new AlphaVac system. In MedTech, it is all about new product cycles.
👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
(4) Market Sentiment & Economic Outlook:
How do you understand what’s really happening? The key is to consider two types of information: investor sentiment and economic data. When you put them together, you get a clear picture.
1) AAII Investor Insights:
The trend is POSITIVE.
Individual investors are more optimistic than usual heading into 2026. Here’s what the numbers show:
Bullish: 42.0% (up from 37.4% the prior week, above the historical average of 37.5%) Neutral: 31.0% (essentially at the 31.5% historical average) Bearish: 27.0% (below the 31.0% historical average)
What this means: More people expect stocks to rise over the next six months than at any point in the past few weeks. Bearish sentiment sits well below average. The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish) stands at 15 percentage points, well above the historical average of 6.5%.
Here’s the contrarian insight most people miss: High bullish sentiment isn’t always good news. Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy.” When everyone’s optimistic, there’s nobody left to buy. Conversely, extreme bearishness creates opportunity.
Right now, we’re in a moderately bullish zone, not extreme. Sentiment hit a one-year bearish high of 61.9% back in April 2025 (right before the market bottomed and rallied). Those who bought during that pessimism captured significant gains.
Advice: Use sentiment as a contrarian indicator at extremes. Current levels suggest cautious optimism, not euphoria. That’s actually healthy for continued gains.
2) Economic Indicator Analysis:
Neutral: most signals sit in a “normal” zone.
The One Red Flag: Consumer Sentiment Look at the bottom number: Consumer Sentiment is at 51.00.
This is dangerously low—way below the “typical” range. This is the disconnect. We have 3.8% GDP growth (booming), but sentiment is at 51 (depressed). Why? Because even though inflation is slowing (2.71%), prices are still high compared to three years ago. We are all feeling the cumulative sticker shock at the grocery store.
Advice: Watch the data, not the mood. When sentiment is this low but the underlying economy (GDP/Jobs) is this strong, it is usually a contrarian buy signal. The crowd is fearful, but the fundamentals don’t support the fear.
Don’t let the “bad vibes” scare you out of the market. The data says the economy is resilient. As an investor, you profit by betting on reality, not on feelings. Stay the course.
💡 What This All Means
The big picture is cautiously optimistic.
Let me connect the dots:
Investor sentiment shows bullishness above historical averages. People expect stocks to rise.
Market conditions are stable. Volatility is low. The yield curve has normalized. Treasury yields aren’t strangling growth.
Economic fundamentals are solid. GDP growth is strong. Inflation is tamed. Unemployment remains manageable.
The one weak link: Consumer sentiment lags badly. People feel worse than the data suggests they should.
Here’s what this means for you:
When sentiment trails reality, opportunity exists. The market typically climbs a “wall of worry.” If consumers felt euphoric and data were weakening, that would be dangerous. Instead, we have the opposite: data is strong, sentiment is muted.
In my experience, this setup tends to resolve in one of two ways: either sentiment catches up to reality (bullish), or reality deteriorates to match sentiment (bearish). Given the strength of current economic data, I lean toward the former.
My takeaway: Stay invested but stay alert. The indicators don’t signal recession. They signal a market that can grind higher, especially if consumer sentiment improves. Use any pullbacks as buying opportunities rather than panic signals.
👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
(5) Important Events this Week:
1) December Jobs Report (Friday)
Significance: This is the most important number of the month. The Federal Reserve is obsessed with the labor market right now. Impact: If this number is too hot (too many jobs), the Fed might keep interest rates higher for longer to prevent inflation. If it is “just right” (Goldilocks), stocks will rally. Watch wage growth closely; the Fed wants people making money, but not so much that it causes inflation.
2) Markets React to Venezuela
Situation Significance: Geopolitical tension always spooks the market first and asks questions later. Venezuela is a major oil player. Impact: Watch the price of oil. If uncertainty spikes, oil prices might jump, which acts like a tax on consumers. If you recall my previous advice, geopolitical sell-offs are often short-lived buying opportunities once the initial shock fades.
3) December JOLTS & ADP Employment Data (Wednesday)
Significance: These are the “appetizers” before the main course (Friday’s Jobs Report). JOLTS measures job openings. Impact: We want to see job openings stay steady. If openings collapse, it means companies are freezing growth, which warns of a recession. Strong numbers here will set a positive tone for the rest of the week.
4) January MI Consumer Sentiment (Friday)
Significance: This measures how confident you feel about your finances. Impact: As I mentioned in the section above, sentiment is currently in the gutter. If this number ticks up, it could signal that the “Vibecession” is ending and people are finally accepting the new normal of prices.
5) December ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday)
Significance: This tells us if American factories are expanding or contracting. Impact: Manufacturing has been the weak spot of the economy lately. A number above 50 indicates growth. If this surprises to the upside, it shows the economic recovery is broadening out beyond just tech and services.
(6) Real Estate Market Analysis:
First-Time Home Buyer Median Age hits 40, a new all-time high:
What the latest weekly data says:
Supply rose, but not because sellers rushed in. Active inventory was up 12.4% year over year, yet new listings fell 0.8%. That means homes are sitting longer, not flooding the market.
Time is shifting to buyers. Homes took 4 more days to sell than a year ago. That sounds small, but it changes negotiations (buyers ask for repairs, credits, price cuts).
Prices slipped in real time. Median list prices fell 1.2% year over year, and price per square foot fell 1.3% (the 15th straight week of declines). That’s the market saying, “I’ll sell, but not at 2021 pricing.”
Why demand cooled (and why it matters for 2026):
Jobs got shakier. The most recent jobs report pushed unemployment to its highest level in over four years. When people feel less safe at work, they delay big choices.
Rent got cheaper (relative to buying). Rents fell year over year for 28 straight months, making renting a stronger option. That pulls first-time buyers out of the market.
Affordability stayed tight. Even with a late-year rate dip, 2025 was a “high payment” year. That caps how much buyers can pay.
The market is not dead, it’s thawing.
In November 2025, pending home sales rose 3.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year as rates eased.
But zoom out: 2025 still tracked toward a 30-year low in existing home sales volume. This is a transition, not a comeback tour.
Advice for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors
For Buyers:
Negotiate aggressively. Sellers are cutting prices for the 15th consecutive week. Use this leverage.
Consider “flipped” homes carefully. They’re selling at larger discounts than other older homes right now. You may find negotiating room here.
Lock rates if you find the right home. Rates at 6.15% are the lowest of 2025. Don’t wait for perfection.
For Sellers:
Price realistically from day one. Homes are sitting longer. Overpricing leads to stale listings.
Be prepared to negotiate. The market has shifted toward buyers. Flexibility wins.
Consider waiting for spring if possible. The 2026 buying season could bring stronger demand.
For Investors:
Focus on markets where inventory is tightest. Northeast and Midwest metros still see faster-than-normal sales.
Watch for distressed opportunities. Rising inventory and zombie mortgages could create motivated sellers.
Think long-term. Short-term volatility creates entry points for patient capital.
👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
(7) Interest Rate Predictions:
Neutral: mortgage rates look rangebound near the low to mid 6% area in early 2026.
Mortgage rates ended 2025 at around 6.15%, the lowest of the year. While that feels like relief, I believe rates will move “sideways” rather than dropping significantly in the short term.
The Hidden Problem: The U.S. Debt Trap Most people think “Fed cuts rates = Mortgage rates drop.” It is usually true, but not always. We are in a unique economic environment where the U.S. Debt-to-GDP ratio is over 100%. Here is the contrarian view: Even if the Fed lowers short-term rates, long-term mortgage rates could actually stay high or even rise.
Why? Because when the government has too much debt, investors get nervous. They might move their money out of bonds (debt) and into stocks (equities) for better returns. When people sell bonds, yields go up, and mortgage rates follow.
The Bottom Line: We are likely stuck in the low-6% range for a while. The “easy money” era is not walking through that door anytime soon.
Advice for Every Scenario
If you’re buying:
Stop waiting for 5% rates. They may not come in 2026. If the math works at current rates, move forward.
Get pre-approved now. Rates could tick up in spring as economic data resumes. Lock in certainty.
Budget for the payment, not the rate. Focus on monthly cash flow. Refinance later if rates drop.
If you’re refinancing:
Calculate the breakeven point. How many months until closing costs are recovered? If you’re staying longer than that, consider refinancing.
Watch for dips. Rates at 6.15% are the lowest of 2025. If you have a rate above 7%, now might be the window.
If you’re selling:
Understand buyer psychology. Many buyers have anchored on waiting for lower rates. Price your home to offset that hesitation.
Offer rate buydowns. Seller-paid buydowns can attract buyers nervous about payments. It’s often more effective than cutting price.
If you’re investing:
Focus on cash flow, not appreciation. In a rangebound rate environment, income matters more than price growth.
Target markets with job growth. The labor market drives housing demand. Follow the jobs.
👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
👋Final Thoughts:
🙌Thanks for reading and joining 108,000 members who trust our newsletter! If you enjoyed it please help us and:
Hit the LIKE button ❤️ on this post and share it with friends or family
And become a paid subscriber to support our writing and research (learn about all of the benefits here):
Did you know your job can pay for this newsletter with its employee development budget? To make it easy, we’ve created this email template to send to your manager.
Please let us know what you think of today’s newsletter:
Missed an issue? Read past issues here at TheFinanceNewsletter.com
☺️ My goal is to help you become smarter with money — Join 3 million and follow me across social media for daily insights:
Instagram Threads: @Fluent.In.Finance
Twitter/ X: @FluentInFinance
Facebook Page: Facebook.com/FluentInFinance
Linkedin: Linkedin.com/in/Lokenauth
Youtube: Youtube.com/FluentInFinance
Instagram: @Fluent.In.Finance
TikTok: @FluentInFinance
Facebook Group: Facebook.com/Groups/FinanceTalk
Reddit Community: r/FluentInFinance
➕Please add this newsletter to your contacts to ensure that none of our emails ever go to spam!
This content is for educational purposes only. Such information should not be construed as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. See for Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions.
Thanks for sharing!