The HD earnings setup you outlined is exactly right - the big-ticket transactions metric is the key tell. What's intresting is the dual narrative at play: homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages who can't move become a captive audience for renovations, but professional contractors who drive the real volme are paralyzed by the freeze in housing turnover. It's a tug-of-war where both sides have legitimate arguments. I'd add one more thing to watch: HD's Pro customer mix. That segment has been their growth engine for years, and if Pro sales hold up despite weak new construction, it signals the renovation thesis is working. The comparson to buying SWK like buying HD in 2009 is clever - both are plays on infrastructure and building America when everyone else is scared. Great analysis across the board!
Comparing SWK to HD 2009 makes sense because both benefit from underbuilt America. Infrastructure and housing repair will define the next cycle. The market rewards companies positioned early.
Renting is cheaper than buying. So sad 😩
The math changed. Our parents could buy homes on one income. Now two people working full-time still can’t afford one. That’s not normal.
It’s not just sad. It’s by design. Wall Street firms own homes now. They don’t want you to buy. They want you to rent forever.
This is Gold!
Thank you for the kind words my friend!!
The HD earnings setup you outlined is exactly right - the big-ticket transactions metric is the key tell. What's intresting is the dual narrative at play: homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages who can't move become a captive audience for renovations, but professional contractors who drive the real volme are paralyzed by the freeze in housing turnover. It's a tug-of-war where both sides have legitimate arguments. I'd add one more thing to watch: HD's Pro customer mix. That segment has been their growth engine for years, and if Pro sales hold up despite weak new construction, it signals the renovation thesis is working. The comparson to buying SWK like buying HD in 2009 is clever - both are plays on infrastructure and building America when everyone else is scared. Great analysis across the board!
Comparing SWK to HD 2009 makes sense because both benefit from underbuilt America. Infrastructure and housing repair will define the next cycle. The market rewards companies positioned early.