💥Market & Economy Update + My Investing Insights (September 15, 2025)

China ditching U.S. dollars, Car market bubble bursting, Biggest increase in health insurance, US payrolls revised down by -911,000 — Plus stock picks, insider trades, interest rate predictions & more

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No clickbait — so you see the whole picture, not just one side.

📬 What's in today's newsletter:

Part I — Financial Markets Deep Dive:
1) Markets & Economy Update + Analysis
2) Important Finance News
3) Important Charts & Numbers

Part II — Stock Market Investing Research:
4) How to Invest (Stock Picks & Research)
5) Insider Trades (Billionaires, Politicians, CEOs)
6) Trade of the Week
7) Top Performing Stocks (news, earnings, catalysts)
8) Stocks to Watch & Important Earnings

Part III — Real Estate & Housing Market Guide:
9) Real Estate & Housing Market Analysis
10) Interest Rate Predictions & Rates

Part IV — Economy & Marco Analysis:
11) Economic Outlook and Market Sentiment
12) Technical Analysis (S&P 500, Tech Stocks, Bitcoin)
13) Important Events this Week

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1. Markets & Economy Update + My Analysis

Here’s everything you need to know this week:

• Stocks hit new all-time highs. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all set records. Since early April, the S&P is up about +30% and added roughly $16 trillion in value (that’s huge—more than almost any other country’s entire stock market).

  • Why? Rate cuts look likely. Inflation data cooled enough, wholesale prices surprised lower, and job numbers were revised down. Traders now expect three 0.25% cuts this year.

  • “Bad” jobs news helped stocks. Higher jobless claims and big downward revisions to hiring show the labor market is slowing. That normally hurts risk assets, but here it supports cuts, which lowers borrowing costs and lifts valuations (lower rates make future profits worth more today).

  • Inflation ticked to 2.9% (from 2.7%) but matched expectations. Markets cared more that the trend + revisions point to easing pressure overall.

• Gold made a new record. That signals investors still want a safety hedge (rates may fall, but long-term risks don’t vanish).

• Global stocks joined the party. MSCI’s world index hit a record. Major Asian markets (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) rallied to new all-time highs, helped by AI optimism and global liquidity.

• Global Bonds are back in a bull market (up ~20% off 2022 lows). Lower expected rates push bond prices up.

• Oracle shocked the Market. Missed EPS but smashed cloud bookings guidance (~$500 billion over time). Stock jumped ~27%, pushing it into the top 10 and lifting Larry Ellison to #2 in wealth

• Coffee prices spiked. Arabica’s premium hit its highest since 2011

💡Andrew’s Deep Dive:

This week, the stock market felt like a giant party. The main US stock indexes—the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones—all hit new record highs.

It’s not just US stocks, either. This optimism is spreading. Global stocks also hit a record high. Stock markets from China to Japan to South Korea are all hitting new peaks. Gold (which often does well when people expect rate cuts) is at a record high.

So, what caused this? It boils down to one big idea: interest rates.

Bad news about jobs made everyone believe good news (lower interest rates) is coming soon. Right now, the market is playing a strange game. It cheers for bad economic news. A weaker job market would typically scare people. But we're in a special situation where investors are laser-focused on just one thing: getting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

This creates a paradox. We're celebrating signs of economic weakness because we believe the medicine (lower rates) will be more powerful than the sickness (a slowing economy).

Think of interest rates like the price of borrowing money. When rates are high, it costs more for companies to borrow and grow (bad for stocks). When rates drop, it's cheaper to borrow (good for stocks). So bad job news actually became good stock news because investors expect three rate cuts by year-end.

The long-term significance: We are likely witnessing the end of the high-rate era that began in 2022. The world got used to expensive money. Now, the tide is turning. This shift will create a new set of winners and losers for the next several years. Make sure you're on the winning side.

The feeling you might have right now is FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Everything is hitting a record high, and it feels like you need to jump in with both feet. Warren Buffett has a great mental model for this. He imagines investing is like baseball, but with one key difference: you can stand at the plate forever, and there are no called strikes. You can wait for the perfect pitch to swing. You don't have to swing at every single ball that comes your way. Right now, the market is throwing a lot of fast, high pitches. It's okay to watch a few go by.

Remember John Templeton's famous advice: "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria." Right now, we're somewhere between optimism and euphoria.

The smartest move? Start building your positions now, but keep your powder dry for the inevitable correction. Because when it comes, that's when generational wealth is really made.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on Twitter/ X, Instagram Threads, or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!

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2. Important Finance News + My Analysis:

This week, we analyze:

1) US payrolls revised down by 911,000 jobs, the largest cut in history.

2) Americans face biggest increase in health insurance costs in 15 years.

3) China is ditching the dollar, fast.

4) Farmers say ‘we’re in a very dire situation’ ahead of harvest—with zero soybean orders from China, historically the largest buyer

5) Oracle's stock up +43% in one day, its best day since 1992.

My thoughts on this week’s most important financial news:

We're living through what future historians will call the "Second Gilded Age." Job data is fake, healthcare costs are exploding, currencies are shifting, trade wars are destroying industries, and AI is creating trillion-dollar companies overnight.

The winners will be those who act on this information now instead of waiting for "better data" or "more clarity." As Warren Buffett says, "be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

Right now, most people are still figuring out what's happening. That gives you a massive advantage if you act on these insights today.

1️⃣ US payrolls revised down by 911,000 jobs, the largest cut in history.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs over the last year than we were told. This wasn't just a small correction; it was the largest downward revision in history.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

Think of this like finding out your bank account has $10,000 less than you thought. The job market was much weaker than anyone realized. We went from thinking the economy added 147,000 jobs per month to discovering it was only 70,000. That's like thinking you're running a 7-minute mile when you're actually jogging at a 14-minute pace (smh).

Warren Buffett always says "when the tide goes out, you discover who's been swimming naked." Well, the jobs tide just went out, and we found out the economy has been swimming naked for months.

This revision proves that the Federal Reserve has been making decisions based on fake data. They've been raising interest rates thinking the job market was strong, when it was actually struggling.

Long-term implications: This could be an early warning that a recession is closer than people think. The narrative is shifting from a strong economy to one that needs help, and that changes everything.

Fewer jobs mean slower wage growth, softer demand, and cooler inflation over time. Cuts help markets now, but they can’t fix weak hiring (that’s a Main Street issue). Think of it like a car easing off the gas: the ride gets smoother, but you may not reach top speed.

Personal Finance Advice:

• Pay down high-interest debt NOW - The Fed will cut rates aggressively, but your credit card debt won't get cheaper fast enough

• Build your emergency fund to 6 months (not the usual 3) - Job losses are coming, and this data proves the labor market is weaker than anyone thought

• Update your resume immediately - Even if you love your job, the smart money is already preparing for layoffs

Investment Advice:

• Buy Treasury bills and money market funds - You'll earn 4-5% while the stock market figures out what's real

• Avoid job-sensitive stocks like retail and restaurants - These companies will get crushed if unemployment spikes

• Consider defensive stocks in utilities and consumer staples - People still need electricity and groceries during recessions

2️⃣ Americans face biggest increase in health insurance costs in 15 years.

The Financial Times revealed that Americans are facing the biggest jump in health insurance costs in 15 years. Premiums for employee plans are set to rise 6.5%, and costs for government exchange plans could soar by 18%.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

Tariffs don't just make your iPhone more expensive - they make your healthcare more expensive too. UnitedHealth is raising premiums by 2.4% just because of "tariff uncertainty." The Math is Brutal:

• Employer health plans: 6.5% increase (highest since 2010)

• Individual marketplace plans: 18% median increase

• Some plans like UnitedHealth in New York: 66.4% increase

Long-term implications: Rising healthcare costs will continue to squeeze both family budgets and corporate profits. This trend is not going away and will be a major economic drag for years to come.

Personal Finance Advice:

• Open a Health Savings Account (HSA) NOW - Triple tax advantage and you can invest the money like a 401(k)

• Contribute the maximum ($4,300 for individuals, $8,550 for families in 2025)

• Choose high-deductible plans with HSAs - You'll save money if you're healthy, and the HSA grows tax-free

• Invest your HSA money in index funds - After age 65, you can withdraw for any reason (not just medical) without penalty

• Use GoodRx and similar apps - Prescription costs are driving premium increases, so cut them wherever possible

• Consider healthcare stocks like CVS Health and Humana - They'll profit from these premium increases

3️⃣ China is ditching the dollar, fast.

According to The Economist, China is making surprisingly fast progress in its mission to ditch the US dollar. It's settling more of its own trade in its currency (the yuan) and building a global financial system that doesn't rely on American banks or infrastructure.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

Here's what's really happening: China is building a financial parallel universe. They've created CIPS (their version of SWIFT), expanded digital yuan payments, and convinced countries to use yuan for oil purchases.

Ray Dalio (who managed the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater) warns that currency changes happen slowly, then all at once. We're moving from "slowly" to "all at once."

The Dollar's Decline:

• China's yuan share in global payments doubled since 2022

• Over 50% of China's trade now settles in yuan (up from 1% in 2010)

• Countries are reducing dollar reserves and diversifying into other currencies

Long-term implications: Imagine a world where there are two or three major global currencies competing. This "multipolar" system could lead to a weaker dollar over the next decade, which would mean higher prices for imported goods in the US and higher borrowing costs for the US government.

Investing Advice:

• Buy gold and gold ETFs (like GLD or IAU) - Gold benefits when people lose faith in any single currency

• Consider international stocks through ETFs like VXUS or EFA - Your returns won't depend only on dollar strength

• Invest in commodity-focused companies - Oil, metals, and agriculture companies benefit when currencies become unstable

• Consider bitcoin as digital gold - It's designed to be independent of any government currency

• Buy real estate investment trusts (REITs) - Property values often hold up when currencies fluctuate

• Invest in companies with international revenue - They benefit when the dollar weakens

4️⃣ Farmers say ‘we’re in a very dire situation’ ahead of harvest—with zero soybean orders from China, historically the largest buyer

Fortune highlighted a crisis in America's heartland: US soybean farmers have zero new orders from China, historically their largest buyer. Due to ongoing trade tensions, China has shifted its business to Brazil, leaving American farmers with a massive crop they can't sell.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

Caleb Ragland, Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean Association, warns of agricultural crisis as China has placed zero orders for U.S. soybeans.

Think about this: China normally buys 25% of all U.S. soybeans. That's like your biggest customer suddenly canceling all their orders. Ragland's own farm is losing $750,000, and he's borrowing money just to survive.

Current soybean prices:

• $10.10 per bushel

• Cost to produce: $11.03 per bushel

• Farmer's profit: NEGATIVE $0.93 per bushel.

China is buying record amounts from Brazil instead. In 2024, China sourced 71% of its soybeans from Brazil. America just handed our biggest agricultural market to our competitors on a silver platter.

Long-term implications: This shows how quickly global trade can be rewired. Once China builds deep relationships with Brazilian farmers, that business might never come back to the US. It's a lesson in how economic and political risks are now deeply intertwined.

Investment Opportunities:

• Buy Brazilian agricultural stocks like Cosan and BrasilAgro - They're stealing market share from American farmers

• Invest in fertilizer companies - Global food demand isn't going away, so fertilizer demand stays strong

• Consider agricultural commodities through ETFs like DBA (agriculture) or CORN (corn futures)

• Avoid farm equipment companies like Deere & Company - Struggling farmers won't buy new tractors

Personal Finance Advice:

• Stock up on staple foods now - Food prices will rise as agricultural supply chains get disrupted

5️⃣ Oracle's stock up +43% in one day, its best day since 1992.

Oracle's stock had its best day in over 30 years, soaring over 40% after revealing it signed a massive $300 billion cloud computing deal with OpenAI.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

The Wall Street Journal revealed Oracle signed a $300 billion, five-year deal with OpenAI. Oracle's projected cloud revenue growth:

• 2026: $18 billion

• 2027: $32 billion

• 2028: $73 billion

• 2029: $114 billion

• 2030: $144 billion

Peter Lynch (the legendary investor) always said "invest in what you know." Well, here's what you need to know: AI infrastructure is this generation's railroad boom.

Oracle's founder Larry Ellison gained $100 billion in one day, briefly becoming richer than Elon Musk. That's more wealth created in 24 hours than most countries' entire GDP.

Direct Plays:

• Oracle (ORCL) - Obviously

• Nvidia (NVDA) - Makes the chips that power Oracle's data centers

• Microsoft (MSFT) - Partners with OpenAI and competes with Oracle

Indirect Plays:

• Real estate investment trusts (REITs) focused on data centers - Digital Realty Trust (DLR) and Equinix (EQIX)

• Cooling and infrastructure companies - Data centers need sophisticated cooling systems

Advice:

• Dollar-cost average into tech ETFs like QQQ or XLK - Don't try to time individual stocks

• Take profits gradually - When stocks gain 100%+ like Oracle did this year, smart investors sell some shares to lock in profits

*️⃣ Other news this week:

• US inflation rises to 2.9%.

• JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% next week.

• Over $110,000,000,000 was added to the crypto market cap on Friday.

• Boomers are sitting on $82 trillion in wealth—more than twice what Gen X has and four times as much as millennials, per FORTUNE.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on Twitter/ X, Instagram Threads, or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!

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3. Important Charts and Numbers + My Thoughts:

This week, we analyze:

1) U.S. Banks are now sitting on $395 Billion in unrealized losses as of Q2 2025.

2) The car market bubble is bursting. Auto loan delinquency rate is at its highest level in 14 years.

3) 39 of the Top 50 U.S. Metros have seen month-over-month housing price declines for the first time in history.

4) Gold has finally taken out its 45-year inflation adjusted record high. Gold ETF assets are skyrocketing.

5) The bottom 50% of US households now hold just 2.5% of total US wealth.

My thoughts on this week’s most important charts and numbers:

These five charts tell the story of an economy in crisis. Banks are failing, consumers are drowning in debt, housing is collapsing, currencies are being debased, and wealth inequality is reaching revolutionary levels.

But here's the thing about financial crises: they create the greatest wealth-building opportunities for those who see them coming. The families who got rich during the 1930s Depression, the 1970s inflation crisis, and the 2008 financial crisis all had one thing in common - they positioned themselves correctly before the crisis hit.

Your Three-Step Action Plan:

1. Protect what you have - Move money to safety, pay down debt, build emergency funds

2. Position for the crisis - Buy gold, avoid risky assets, prepare for opportunities

3. Profit from the chaos - Invest in assets that benefit from crisis, become an owner not just an earner

The charts don't lie. The crisis is here. Remember what John D. Rockefeller said during the 1929 crash: "The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets."

1️⃣ U.S. Banks are now sitting on $395 Billion in unrealized losses as of Q2 2025.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

What the chart shows: Banks own a lot of bonds bought when rates were low. When rates jumped, those bonds fell in price. The losses are mostly “on paper” (Held-to-Maturity hides them unless sold; Available-for-Sale hits equity today).

These "unrealized losses" happen when banks buy bonds at high prices, then interest rates rise and those bonds become worth less. But here's the issue: this is worse than 2008. During the financial crisis, bank losses peaked around $150 billion. We're now at nearly triple that amount.

Long-term implications: This massive loss acts like a brake on the economy. Because banks are nursing these hidden wounds, they are less willing and able to lend money to people and small businesses. This can slow down economic growth for years to come. It’s the same issue that caused several banks to fail in 2023.

Advice:

• Check your bank's size - Only deposits up to $250,000 are FDIC insured per bank

• Spread money across multiple banks if you have more than $250,000

• Move to Treasury bills or money market funds - These pay 4-5% with government backing

• Avoid regional bank stocks like First Republic, PacWest, or any bank with heavy commercial real estate exposure

• Invest in mega-banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - They'll benefit when smaller banks fail

• Consider Bitcoin or gold - People flee to these when they lose faith in banks

2️⃣ The car market bubble is bursting. Auto loan delinquency rate is at its highest level in 14 years.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

What the chart shows:

• Subprime 60-day delinquencies >5% (highest on record).

• Prime delinquencies at a 15-year high.

• Auto debt hits $1.66T. Payments ate too much of the paycheck (prices + rates + long loans).

Americans can't afford their cars anymore. With $1.66 trillion in auto debt (a record), we're looking at the next subprime crisis. Except this time, it's not houses - it's cars.

Think of it like this: When someone can't pay their car loan, the bank repossesses the car. But used car prices are falling, so the bank sells the car for less than the loan amount. The bank loses money, the borrower's credit is destroyed, and suddenly nobody wants to make new car loans.

Long-term implications: This signals a coming wave of car repossessions. That will flood the market with used cars, causing prices to fall. This is bad news for car companies, lenders, and anyone who bought a car at an inflated price over the last few years.

Investment Opportunities:

• Buy used car dealer stocks like CarMax (KMX) - They'll profit from repo auctions

• Avoid auto manufacturers - Ford, GM, and Stellantis will see sales collapse

3️⃣ 39 of the Top 50 U.S. Metros have seen month-over-month housing price declines for the first time in history.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

What the chart shows: That housing chart shows something that's never happened before in recorded history: 39 of the top 50 metro areas saw home prices fall in the same month. This isn't a regional problem anymore - it's a national housing crisis.

During 2008, housing price declines spread gradually. This time, it's happening everywhere at once. It's like watching dominoes fall, except all the dominoes are falling simultaneously.

Here's why this is happening: mortgage rates are still high, but home prices haven't adjusted yet. A house that cost $400,000 with a 3% mortgage now costs $600,000 with a 7% mortgage.

Long-term implications: The housing market will likely be flat or see modest declines for the next couple of years as it adjusts. The days of buying a house and seeing it jump 20% in value in one year are over.

Advice If You're a Homeowner:

• Don't panic sell - Unless you absolutely have to move

• Refinance if rates drop - The Fed will eventually cut rates aggressively

• Avoid home equity loans - Your equity is disappearing fast

• Consider renting out rooms - Generate income from your biggest asset

Advice If You're Renting:

• Keep renting - Home prices have much further to fall

• Save cash for the bottom - The best buying opportunities are coming in 2026-2027

• Negotiate rent decreases - Landlords are getting desperate as property values fall

Investment Plays:

• Short homebuilder stocks like D.R. Horton (DHI) and Lennar (LEN)

• Buy rental property REITs - American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) will benefit from more people renting

• Invest in home improvement stocks - Home Depot (HD) benefits when people can't move

4️⃣ Gold has finally taken out its 45-year inflation adjusted record high. Gold ETF assets are skyrocketing.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

What the charts show:

• Inflation-adjusted gold price made a new peak.

• U.S. gold ETF assets near $215B, roughly double in two years; heavy tonnage added.

The last time gold did this was during the Jimmy Carter presidency, when inflation hit 15% and people lost faith in the dollar. We're seeing the same pattern now: inflation above 3%, massive government debt, and central banks around the world buying gold at record pace.

Gold ETF assets doubled to $215 billion in just 2 years. That's not retail investors buying gold coins - that's institutions and sovereign wealth funds moving serious money. When the smart money moves this fast, you need to pay attention.

The legendary investo Ray Dalio (who ran the world's largest hedge fund) has been warning about this for years. He said "cash is trash" and recommended gold as the ultimate store of value. The charts prove he was right.

Ray Dalio once said, "If you don't own gold, you know neither history nor economics." People buy gold for two main reasons: as a defense against inflation (which devalues paper money) and as insurance against instability in the financial system. Right now, we have both. This surge in gold is a massive vote of no confidence in the current state of affairs.

Why This Matters:

• Central banks are debasing currencies - Gold protects against this

• Geopolitical tensions rising - Gold benefits from global uncertainty

• Dollar losing reserve status - Gold becomes more important as dollar alternatives emerge

Advice:

• Buy gold ETFs like GLD or IAU - Easy to trade and liquid

• Gold mining stocks like Newmont (NEM) or Barrick Gold (GOLD) - Higher risk but more upside

• Silver follows gold - Buy silver ETF (SLV) for more volatility and potential gains

• Bitcoin as digital gold - If you prefer crypto to metals

• International gold stocks - Canadian and Australian miners often outperform US companies

5️⃣ The bottom 50% of US households now hold just 2.5% of total US wealth.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

That final chart shows the most disturbing trend of all: the bottom 50% of Americans now own just 2.5% of total wealth. Think about that - half the country combined owns less than what some individual billionaires possess.

This isn't just about fairness - it's about economic stability. When most people have no wealth, they can't buy things. When they can't buy things, companies can't sell products. When companies can't sell products, the economy collapses.

Here's what most people don't understand: every time the Fed cuts interest rates with stocks at record highs, wealth inequality gets worse. Asset owners (stocks, real estate, businesses) get richer, while people with just jobs and savings get poorer.

The Fed will cut rates this week and "blame" the weak labor market. But they're really doing it to save the banks and keep asset prices high. Warren Buffett calls this "class warfare, and my class is winning."

The Contrarian Opportunity:

• History says Fed rate cuts with stocks at highs lead to bigger highs - This will be the 3rd time since 1996

Advice - Become an Asset Owner:

• Buy index funds like SPY or VTI - Own pieces of businesses instead of just earning wages

• Real estate investment trusts (REITs) - Own property without the hassle

• Automate investments - Set up automatic transfers to investment accounts

• Buy when others are fearful - These crisis signals create buying opportunities for those with cash

• Start a side business - Even small businesses benefit from Fed money printing

• Invest in yourself - Skills and education are assets that can't be inflated away

👉For more charts, follow me on Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, and turn on notifications!

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🤝 This week’s premium research and analysis is sponsored by Tangle News!

Investors know that noise clouds judgment. The same is true in politics. Tangle News is an independent politics newsletter that delivers one clear story each day — broken down from the left, right, and center, with fact-first analysis to cut through the chaos.

No clickbait — so you see the whole picture, not just one side.

4. How to Invest (Stock picks & research):

Each week, I invest around $5,000 into my long-term investments. Here’s where my money is going this week.

This week, we analyze:

1) CoreWeave (CRWV) — Pure-play AI cloud at scale

We hear a lot about the "September curse," the idea that September is historically the worst month for stocks. September has been the stock market's worst month, delivering an average loss of 0.7%.

So let's start with the question everyone is asking: "Is now a good time to invest?"

This September, something different is happening. The S&P 500 is up 1.9% so far this month. The great investor Peter Lynch said it best: "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."

Let's ignore the calendar and focus on what actually matters. Nvidia isn't just making chips - they're making strategic investments. The company has $4.3 billion spread across six AI stocks, and they're not picking these names randomly. Nvidia knows where the AI money is flowing because they're supplying the shovels in this gold rush.

During the California Gold Rush, most miners went broke. But the guys selling pickaxes, shovels, and blue jeans (like Levi Strauss) made fortunes. Nvidia is playing both roles - they're selling the shovels (chips) AND investing in the infrastructure companies that use those shovels.

This is a stock picker's market. Forget about betting on the whole index. The real money will be made by finding individual companies with such explosive, unstoppable growth that they can succeed no matter what the Fed does or what month it is.

1️⃣ CoreWeave (CRWV) — Pure-play AI cloud at scale

How do we know CoreWeave is a winner? Because the undisputed king of AI, Nvidia, has placed a massive $3.96 billion bet on them.

This isn't just one of many small investments for Nvidia. It's their single largest holding, making up over 90% of their public stock portfolio. Think about what that means. The smartest people in the AI room, the ones who see the entire industry from the inside, have chosen CoreWeave as their key partner.

This is the ultimate "smart money" signal.

CoreWeave (CRWV) represents Nvidia's largest bet at $3.96 billion. This isn't a side investment - this is Nvidia putting serious money where their mouth is. Here's why this matters:

The Numbers That Tell the Story:

• Revenue: $3.53 billion (trailing 12 months)

• Price-to-sales ratio: 16.2x (cheapest in Nvidia's portfolio)

• Projected earnings growth: 72% in 2026

• Market cap: $55 billion (room to grow)

Compare this to traditional cloud providers like Amazon Web Services. CoreWeave was built from the ground up for AI workloads, while AWS is retrofitting old infrastructure.

The first objection you'll hear is, "But CoreWeave isn't profitable."

This is the Amazon playbook. For years, Wall Street complained that Amazon didn't make a profit. But Jeff Bezos was playing a different game. He was reinvesting every dollar of profit into building an unshakeable empire of warehouses, servers, and delivery networks. He chose dominance tomorrow over profit today.

CoreWeave is doing the exact same thing. They are pouring every dollar into building out the best-in-class data centers specifically for AI. They are sacrificing short-term profits to build a long-term, unassailable lead in the most important part of the AI infrastructure market.

Why are AI companies flocking to CoreWeave instead of giants like Amazon or Google?

Because CoreWeave is a specialist. Its cloud platform was built from the ground up for one purpose: to run massive AI applications.

Think of it like this: Amazon's cloud (AWS) is a reliable family sedan. It can do everything pretty well. CoreWeave is a Formula 1 race car. It is custom-built for one thing—extreme performance. When you're an AI company spending billions on Nvidia's chips, you don't put them in a family sedan. You put them in the F1 car to get every ounce of speed and power.

The Moat That Matters: CoreWeave has something Amazon and Microsoft don't: direct access to Nvidia's latest chips. When you're Nvidia's biggest investment, you get first dibs on the hardware that powers AI. In a supply-constrained market, that's like having a direct pipeline to oil during an embargo.

Catalysts (next 6–18 months):

• New GPU waves delivered and energized.

• Mega-tenant wins and term extensions.

• Cost of capital lower after cuts; faster build schedule.

• Software layer upsell (or exclusive service tiers).

The AI infrastructure build-out is just beginning. The companies positioning themselves correctly today will be the dominant players for the next decade. CoreWeave, backed by Nvidia's expertise and capital, represents the best risk-adjusted opportunity in this massive trend.

Remember what Wayne Gretzky said: "I skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been." The puck is going toward AI infrastructure, and September's unusual strength is your signal that the game has already begun.

Buffett bought great cash machines and let time do the work. Today, the cash machine is AI compute. The world needs far more capacity, power, and networking. CoreWeave is the focused AI cloud turning scarcity into sales.

👉For more insights, follow me on Twitter/ X, Instagram Threads, and turn on notifications.

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5. Insider Trades from Billionaires, Politicians and CEO’s:

Legendary investor Peter Lynch famously said, "Insiders might sell their stock for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price is going up."

They're not gambling – they know something. Follow the money.

This week, we analyze:

1) The Bear Bet - Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares $TZA

2) The Biotech Breakthrough - Summit Therapeutics $SMMT

3) Betting on Real Estate Recovery - Medalist Diversified REIT $MDRR

1) The Bear Bet - Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares $TZA

Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares $TZA recently saw a significant purchase from a well-informed politician. Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares $TZA was bought by North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore in a transaction valued between $50,000 and $100,000, as reported on September 4th.

Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares $TZA is a special kind of investment called an inverse ETF; it’s designed to go up in value when small-cap stocks go down. Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares $TZA is essentially a bet that smaller, more vulnerable companies in the US economy are about to face trouble. Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares $TZA lines up with today’s pressure on smaller firms that must refinance at higher rates and face tighter bank credit. The story here is that a powerful political insider is using his own money to place a hedge, or an insurance bet, against economic weakness that would hit small businesses the hardest.

2) The Biotech Breakthrough - Summit Therapeutics $SMMT

Summit Therapeutics $SMMT saw one of the strongest bullish signals an investor can find. Summit Therapeutics $SMMT had its two Co-CEOs, each purchase nearly $6 million worth of their own company's stock on September 10th. Mahkam Zanganeh and Robert W. Duggan, who each hold 10% stakes in the company, simultaneously invested nearly $6 million each. This coordinated buying suggests either incredible confidence or inside knowledge of upcoming catalysts.

Summit Therapeutics develops cancer treatments, and when biotech executives make massive personal investments, it often signals clinical trial results or regulatory approvals on the horizon. Summit Therapeutics $SMMT is a biotech company working on breakthrough cancer drugs, a high-stakes field where success can mean astronomical returns.

The legendary investor Peter Lynch famously said that insiders might sell their stock for many reasons, but they only buy for one: they think the price is going up. When not one, but both leaders of the company make massive, coordinated multi-million dollar buys on the same day, that signal becomes a deafening roar of confidence. They are likely very optimistic about upcoming clinical trial results for their lung cancer drug, ivonescimab.

Robert Duggan has a track record worth noting. He previously led Pharmacyclics, which developed the cancer drug Imbruvica and was acquired by AbbVie for $21 billion. When someone with that resume puts $6 million of personal money into a biotech stock, you pay attention.

3) Betting on Real Estate Recovery - Medalist Diversified REIT $MDRR

Medalist Diversified REIT $MDRR saw its Chairman and CEO, Frank Kavanaugh, pour $1.75 million into the stock on August 29th. Medalist Diversified REIT $MDRR is a real estate company that owns properties like shopping centers and hotels, a sector that the market has punished due to high interest rates. But this wasn't a small purchase; the CEO increased his personal ownership by 241%. This is the captain of the ship not just staying on board, but more than tripling his personal stake, sending a clear message: "I believe the market is completely wrong, and our stock is incredibly cheap." He is betting big that the fears around commercial real estate are overblown. This is a powerful contrarian signal. When everyone is fearful about a sector, and an expert insider makes a massive buy, it's often a sign that the bottom is near.

Medalist Diversified REIT focuses on acquiring and managing commercial real estate properties. Kavanaugh's massive purchase suggests he believes real estate values have bottomed out and recovery is beginning. REITs have been battered by high interest rates, making properties more expensive to finance and reducing their appeal compared to high-yielding bonds.

Medalist Diversified REIT $MDRR stands to benefit if Fed rate cuts lower borrowing costs and unlock better cap rates, though leverage and tenant quality must be watched.

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6. Trade of the Week:

Each week, I swing trade around $1,000-$2,000 in stock options. I use AI to monitor options flow activity. Here’s where my play this week.

Kindly MD NAKA 0.00%↑

$NAKA is a company working in the highly speculative field of plant-based and psychedelic medicines for mental health, focusing on chronic pain management and addiction treatment. The stock has been absolutely crushed, falling over 90% from its highs, including a painful 23% drop just today.

With call volume exploding to 38,558 contracts - seven times the normal amount - someone just made a massive $2.3 million gamble that this beaten-down stock will rocket higher in the next seven days. The trade that caught my attention was 20,000 contracts of September 19th $2.50 strike calls purchased for $1.15 each. Think of this like buying lottery tickets that only pay off if NAKA jumps from around $2 to above $3.65 by next Thursday.

This is a classic "blood in the streets" trade. The stock is in freefall, sentiment is horrible, and one deep-pocketed investor is making a multi-million dollar bet that a dramatic, violent rebound is about to happen this week. It's the investing equivalent of a Hail Mary pass in the final seconds of a football game. This trader is either a genius who knows about an imminent positive catalyst, or they're about to lose millions. This is an extremely bullish, high-risk, contrarian bet.

This is pure speculation, not investment. The put/call ratio heavily favors calls, showing traders are betting on a miracle recovery rather than hedging downside risk. It's reminiscent of GameStop's meme stock days when retail traders threw money at calls hoping for a short squeeze.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company GPK 0.00%↑

D-Wave Quantum Inc. $QBTS saw an explosion of bullish activity, with call option volume soaring past 100,000 contracts, five times the daily average. D-Wave Quantum Inc. $QBTS is a pioneering company building quantum computers, a revolutionary technology that could solve problems impossible for even the fastest supercomputers today.

Traders aggressively bought call options at six different price levels. The smart money is clustering around strikes just above current levels: $17.50, $18.00, $18.50, $19.00, $19.50, and $20.00 calls for September 19th expiration. Over 27,000 contracts traded at these strikes, with most being opening positions.

The most telling clue is the put-to-call ratio, which stood at a mere 0.23. This means for every 100 options traded, only 23 were bearish bets, while 77 were bullish bets. That’s not just optimism; it’s an overwhelmingly bullish consensus. Traders are betting with a unified voice that the stock, which is testing a key technical level, is about to break out higher. The stock is attempting to break above its 50-day moving average for the first time since August 18th, which is a key technical signal that the downtrend might be reversing.

This is a powerful momentum signal. The stock has been quiet, building energy, and now a massive wave of traders is betting it's about to make a sharp move up. The nearly non-existent bearish activity suggests a high degree of confidence in this short-term rally. This is a classic bullish breakout setup.

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7. Top Performing Stocks This Week (news, earnings, and catalysts):

Hedge Fund’s Biggest Bets. Here are the stocks making millionaires:

1. Opendoor Technologies $OPEN up +65% on Thursday 9/11
2. Nebius Group N.V. $NBIS up +50% on Tuesday 9/9
3. Oracle $ORCL up +39% on Wednesday 9/10
4. Oxford Industries $OXM up +22% on Thursday 9/11
5. Robinhood $HOOD up +14% on Monday 9/8
6. Revolution Medicines $RVMD up +13% on Thursday 9/11
7. Kingsoft Cloud $KC up +13% on Tuesday 9/9

1) Opendoor Technologies OP 0.00%↑ EN up +65% on Thursday 9/11

Opendoor Technologies $OPEN was up +65% after naming Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as CEO. Opendoor Technologies $OPEN runs an online home-buying and home-selling platform and the move signals a push to tighten product and growth. Catalyst: leadership change plus a broad rate-cut backdrop that can unlock housing activity. Long term: if mortgages ease, volumes recover first, then margins.

2) Nebius Group N.V. $NBIS up +50% on Tuesday 9/9

Nebius Group N.V. $NBIS was up +50% on news it will deliver AI infrastructure to Microsoft. Nebius Group N.V. $NBIS builds compute and services for AI builders. Catalyst: hyperscale demand and multi-year contracts. Long term: the AI infrastructure build is a marathon, not a sprint.

3) Oracle $ORCL up +39% on Wednesday 9/10

Oracle $ORCL was up +39% after reporting multicloud database revenue up more than 1,500% and laying out big AI cloud targets. Oracle $ORCL sells databases, cloud services, and now massive AI compute. Catalyst: mega contracts and capacity ramps. Long term: if AI spend compounds, recurring revenue and free cash flow expand.

4) Oxford Industries $OXM up +22% on Thursday 9/11

Oxford Industries $OXM was up +22% after beating earnings and saying tariffs will bite less than feared. Oxford Industries $OXM owns Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer. Catalyst: cleaner outlook into holiday and spring lines. Long term: brand strength plus inventory control can drive steady margins.

5) Robinhood $HOOD up +14% on Monday 9/8

Robinhood $HOOD was up +14% after S&P said it will join the S&P 500. Robinhood $HOOD runs a retail brokerage platform. Catalyst: index inclusion forces passive buying. Long term: more assets on platform can lift spreads and subscriptions.

6) Revolution Medicines $RVMD up +13% on Thursday 9/11

Revolution Medicines $RVMD was up +13% on positive data for daraxonrasib in pancreatic cancer with a phase 3 planned this quarter. Revolution Medicines $RVMD develops targeted cancer drugs. Catalyst: trial launches and readouts. Long term: a win in a hard cancer can re-rate the story.

7) Kingsoft Cloud $KC up +13% on Tuesday 9/9

Kingsoft Cloud $KC was up +13% after a major bank upgrade tied to AI demand and improving margins. Kingsoft Cloud $KC is a China-based cloud provider. Catalyst: AI workloads lifting public cloud revenue mix. Long term: mix shift plus cost control can drive operating leverage.

👉For more insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads, and turn on notifications.

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8. Important Earnings and Stocks to Watch:

Here’s what you need to know for the most important earnings this week:

1) FedEx $FDX — what to watch this week

FedEx sits at the center of global shipping, so it’s a clean read on trade and e-commerce. Bull case: cost cuts from the DRIVE plan and Network 2.0 should keep margins improving even if volumes are mixed, and any pickup in Asia export lanes or U.S. retail would help. Bear case: soft international airfreight and wage inflation can cap margin gains, and investors will press management on whether cost saves are already “in the stock.” How to trade it: focus on margin guidance, package yield, and cost-save run-rate; if they raise full-year operating margin targets, you can ride a breakout with a tight stop below the 50-day average.

2) Ferguson $FERG — what to watch this week

Ferguson is a leading distributor of plumbing and HVAC parts tied to U.S. housing repair and remodel. Bull case: steady repair-and-remodel demand, HVAC replacements, and IRA-related energy upgrades can offset a slower new-build cycle. Bear case: if big-ticket commercial projects slow or pricing power fades, gross margin mix can slip. How to trade it: listen for like-for-like sales in the U.S., price vs. volume, and cash returns; a solid free-cash-flow print plus buyback talk sets up a swing long.

3) Lennar $LEN — what to watch this week

Lennar is a top homebuilder. Bull case: rate buydowns and incentives are still converting orders, and limited resale inventory keeps new-home demand alive. Bear case: if mortgage rates pop or incentives expand, gross margins can compress. How to trade it: focus on new orders, cancellation rates, ASP vs. incentives, and gross margin guide; if orders rise while margins hold, you can buy weakness post-print for the next leg of the housing up-cycle.

4) Bullish $BLSH — what to watch this week

Bullish runs a crypto exchange, so results track trading volumes, listings, and custody. Bull case: higher bitcoin and token volatility boosts spot and derivatives volumes, lifting take rates. Bear case: if crypto quiets or regulators tighten, volumes and new accounts can fade. How to trade it: watch MTUs, volumes, and any new product or jurisdiction wins; if they post volume growth above market and signal product launches, momentum traders can play the upside into the next crypto catalyst.

👉For more insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads or BlueSky, and turn on notifications.

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9. Real Estate Market Analysis, Tips and Predictions:

The US housing market in mid-September 2025 is a tale of two completely different worlds, locked in a tense tug-of-war. The wild, anything-goes seller’s market of the last few years is officially over. But this isn't a crash. Instead, we're in a strange and confusing "Great Rebalancing" that is creating unique challenges and opportunities for everyone involved.

For the first time in years, the seesaw is tipping back towards buyers. The latest housing data from August and early September shows that the number of homes for sale is up over 20% from last year, giving you more choices. Homes are taking longer to sell, and for the first time since the spring, national home prices actually ticked down year-over-year. In fact, 7 of the 50 biggest cities in the US, like Miami and Austin, are now officially "buyer's markets," where you, the buyer, finally have the upper hand.

So, why aren't prices falling everywhere? It's because of a powerful force I call the "golden handcuffs." Over 80% of current homeowners have a mortgage rate below 6%. They are locked into their cheap monthly payments, unwilling to sell their home and take on a new, more expensive mortgage. This is choking off the supply of new homes for sale, which fell by almost 2% last week, the biggest drop since January. This keeps the market tight in many areas, especially in the still-hot Northeast and Midwest, and prevents prices from falling further.

Now, a new player is entering the game: the Federal Reserve. With the job market showing clear signs of weakness—unemployment just hit a four-year high—the Fed is almost certain to start cutting interest rates next week. We're already seeing the effect: this week, the average 30-year mortgage rate fell sharply to below 6.5% for the first time in 11 months. This is the spark that could bring a wave of buyers back from the sidelines this fall.

But there's a new, hidden threat that is changing the rules of the game entirely: the soaring cost of homeowners insurance. With over $12 trillion in property value at risk from climate events, insurance is becoming a massive, unpredictable expense. Nearly 75% of Americans now fear insurance could become unaffordable. This isn't a small problem on the side; it is quickly becoming a central factor in the home buying decision, a new "shadow mortgage" payment that can make or break a deal.

Advice for buyers:

1. Get Pre-Approved Now: With mortgage rates at an 11-month low, lock in a rate with a lender immediately. This gives you a firm budget and makes your offer stronger.

2. Negotiate Aggressively: The days of waiving inspections and bidding wars are over in most markets. Don't be afraid to make offers below the asking price and ask the seller to pay for repairs or closing costs.

3. Investigate Insurance First: Before you fall in love with a house, get an insurance quote. A shockingly high premium or the inability to get insured at all can kill your dream. Make insurance costs a primary part of your budget, right alongside the mortgage payment.

Advice for sellers:

1. Face Reality on Price: This is not 2022. Work with your agent to price your home based on today's sales, not last year's. The biggest mistake you can make right now is overpricing your home.

2. Win the Beauty Contest: With more homes for sale, yours needs to look the best. Invest in curb appeal, fresh paint, and decluttering. First impressions are everything.

3. Sell Your Home's Security: If you have a new roof, updated electrical, or storm-resistant windows, make that a key feature of your listing. Highlighting features that will lead to lower insurance costs is a powerful new way to attract savvy buyers.

Advice for Investors:

1. Go Midwest & Northeast: The data is clear. These regions still have high demand and low inventory. Look for investment properties in the affordable, stable cities on the "Hottest Markets" list, like those in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut.

2. Be Wary of the Sunbelt Correction: The high-flying markets in Florida, Texas, and Arizona are now leading the nation in price cuts and inventory gains. Be very cautious about buying in these areas until prices have fully stabilized.

3. Make Climate Risk a Core Part of Your Thesis: The smart money is now analyzing long-term climate and insurance risk. Invest in areas with lower climate risk and more stable insurance markets. This will become a key driver of home value appreciation over the next decade.

👉For more insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads or BlueSky, and turn on notifications.

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10. Interest Rate Predictions:

Rates will decrease.

Rates are heading lower into late September 2025, but not to “cheap money” levels. Think small steps down, not a cliff.

I watch the bond market first. The 10-year yield slipped this month as jobs data weakened and big revisions cut almost a million jobs from past counts. That pulled mortgage rates down to about 6.3% to 6.5% as of mid-September 2025, the best levels in roughly a year. Inflation looks sticky in spots, but hiring cooled and jobless claims rose. The Fed’s next move is cuts. Traders already priced that in. When the Fed eases, mortgage rates usually follow.

My base case for the next 6–12 months: rates drift down in steps. Think 25–75 bps lower by spring if the economy stays soft.

Bull case: inflation cools more, labor stays weak, mortgage rates push into the high-5s by mid-2026.

Bear case: new price shocks or re-acceleration in jobs. Then we bounce back toward 7% for a while.

Plan for the base case. Protect against the bear case. Be ready to pounce if we get the bull case.

Most investors wait for "perfect" market conditions. They want the economy strong AND rates low. That combination rarely exists. Economic weakness creates the rate environment, but fear keeps competitors away.

Advice for home buyers

• The psychological barrier of 7% mortgage rates is gone. This dip is the opportunity you've been waiting for, but you must be prepared, because you are not the only one who sees it.

• Get off the sidelines and prepare to act. Call a mortgage lender and update your pre-approval letter this week. Your buying power is significantly higher today than it was just a few months ago. This drop in rates will bring a flood of sidelined buyers back into the market this fall. You need to be ready to make a strong offer

Advice for homeowners

• If you bought a home or refinanced in the last 18 months, you might be feeling trapped by your higher interest rate. Those "golden handcuffs" may be starting to loosen.

• Find out if a refinance makes financial sense for you now. The old rule that you need rates to drop by 1% to refinance is outdated. Call your mortgage broker today and ask for a "break-even analysis." This is a simple calculation that shows you exactly how many months it will take for the savings on your new, lower payment to pay for the cost of the refinance. For many people, that break-even point is now much closer than they think.

Advice for real estate investors

• For investors, cash flow is king. Lower interest rates mean lower borrowing costs, which is the magic ingredient for better cash flow and higher returns.

• Re-run the numbers on deals you previously passed on. Pull out the list of properties you analyzed three or six months ago. The deals that looked "just okay" or "too tight" back then might now be home runs. Recalculate your potential monthly cash flow using today's lower mortgage rates. This is the moment to be aggressive and lock in properties while other investors are still waiting for the Fed's official press conference. The smart money acts first.

Current Interest Rates:

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11. Economic Outlook, Market Sentiment and Lessons:

How do you cut through the noise and understand what's really happening?

The secret is to look at three different types of information: the hard facts about the economy, the actions of big-money investors, and the feelings of everyday people. When you put them together, you get a clear and powerful picture.

1) Fear & Greed Index = Neutral

The current trend is neutral with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 54, representing a balanced market sentiment that's neither driven by excessive fear nor unbridled greed.

Think of the Fear & Greed Index as Wall Street's emotional thermometer. Warren Buffett once said, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful," and this index gives you the perfect tool to apply his contrarian wisdom. At 54, the market is in that sweet spot where emotions aren't driving decisions—yet.

Here's what's fascinating: just a month ago, this index hit 63 (greed territory), but it's since cooled to neutral. This cooling suggests smart money is taking profits while retail investors are still figuring out what to do.

Advice: Set up alerts when the index hits extreme levels (below 25 or above 75). When fear dominates, start buying quality dividend stocks. When greed takes over, trim positions and build cash reserves. The neutral reading today suggests you should be prepared to act in either direction.

2) AAII Investor Index = Negative (Contrarian Bullish Signal)

The current trend is decidedly negative with bearish sentiment at 49.5%—significantly above the 31% historical average—while bullish sentiment has plummeted to just 28%.

Picture this: Nearly half of individual investors expect stocks to fall over the next six months. This level of pessimism hasn't been seen since some of the darkest moments in market history. It's like being at a party where everyone's talking about leaving, but nobody wants to be first.

The psychology here is crucial. When 49.5% of investors are bearish versus the historical norm of 31%, you're witnessing capitulation—the moment when even optimistic investors throw in the towel. This reminds me of the famous story of Joseph Kennedy Sr., who supposedly sold all his stocks after getting stock tips from a shoeshine boy in 1929. Today's version? When your optimistic neighbor starts talking about moving everything to cash.

But here's the contrarian twist: extreme pessimism often marks market bottoms. The bull-bear spread of -21.5% is a buy signal for patient investors. Think about it—if everyone expects stocks to fall, who's left to sell?

Advice: When bearish sentiment exceeds 45%, start deploying cash systematically. Use dollar-cost averaging to buy quality growth stocks that pessimistic investors are dumping. Create a watchlist of companies with strong fundamentals but battered stock prices. The current 49.5% bearish reading suggests we're near a sentiment extreme that historically rewards brave buyers.

3) Economic Indicators = Neutral (positive leaning)

The current trend is neutral but leaning towards positive across the economic landscape, with the vast majority of indicators showing expansion signals rather than recession warnings.

Consumer metrics are firing on all cylinders—housing permits, jobless claims, retail sales, and wage growth all point to a resilient economy.

The business activity section tells an equally compelling story. While ISM New Orders and Profit Margins show some caution (yellow and red signals), the overall economic engine continues humming along.

Financial indicators add another layer of confidence. Credit spreads remain healthy, money supply is supportive, and even the historically reliable yield curve isn't flashing recession warnings.

4) What I Think

You're witnessing a classic setup where emotional investors are creating opportunities for analytical ones. While the crowd frets about imaginary problems, focus on the real fundamentals pointing toward continued growth. The best investments are made when you feel least like making them—and right now, that describes most investors perfectly.

Advice: Review your portfolio, identify quality stocks trading below fair value due to sentiment, and prepare to be greedy when others are fearful.

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12. Technical Analysis (S&P 500, Tech Stocks, Bitcoin):

1) S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑ (Short-term): Positive

Positive: the index is in a rising channel. Big picture news helps the bull case: rate cuts are on the table next week, and AI leaders just posted strong updates from cloud and chip rollouts, which keeps earnings hopes alive.

2) Tech Stocks QQQ 0.00%↑ (Short-term): Positive

Positive: A clean breakout in a rising trend. Recent fuel: AI-driven demand headlines from mega-cap software and chips and new Blackwell server shipments. That keeps tech leadership intact.

3) Bitcoin $BTC (Short-term): Positive

Positive: price trends up. RSI is hot, so momentum is strong. Current drivers: markets expect easier Fed policy, and the post-halving supply cut plus steady ETF demand keep the long-term story in play.

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13. Important Events This Week:

1) Fed Interest Rate Decision — Wednesday, September 17

Most important. A first cut of 2025 lowers the cost of money and can reprice every asset. If the cut is 25 bps and guidance is calm, you often see stocks up, yields down, dollar softer, gold and growth lead. If the Fed surprises with 50 bps or hints fear, the market may read recession risk and sell cyclicals.

2) Fed Dot-Plot Projections — Wednesday, September 17

This is the road map for future cuts. Fewer dots for 2025 cuts is bearish for long-duration assets; more cuts is bullish. The terminal rate and 2026 dots matter for the long game because they shape mortgage rates and CAPEX plans.

3) FOMC Press Conference — Wednesday, September 17

Words can move markets more than the rate move. If the Chair stresses “softening labor” but “no panic,” that’s risk-on. If he leans on “sticky inflation”, that’s risk-off.

4) August Retail Sales — Tuesday, September 16

Retail sales show the health of the consumer, the largest part of GDP. Stronger sales mean earnings support for retailers, travel, and payments, but could mute the case for fast Fed easing. Weak sales help the easing case but raise recession risk.

5) Initial Jobless Claims — Thursday, September 18

Claims are the early warning on layoffs. A steady rise signals cooling jobs and keeps the Fed on a cut path; a drop signals resilience and can lift yields.

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👋My Final Thoughts:

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