💥 My Investment Research and Market Analysis (July 28, 2025)

The Truth About the Economy, Wage Growth, Housing Market, Inflation, and Unemployment — plus my Stock Picks, Insider Trades, Interest Rate & Real Estate Predictions, Technical Analysis & Much More!

👋 Good morning my friend and welcome back to your favorite newsletter. I hope you’re had a great weekend!

And thank you for joining the 108,000+ readers who subscribe to our newsletter, dedicated to helping you get richer and smarter with your money! You can read last week’s issue here.

📬 In today’s issue, we got a lot of important information to discuss:

Part I — Financial Markets:
1) My Market Analysis
2) Most Important Events this Week (and my analysis)
3) Charts & Numbers To Know
4) Question of The Week (Andrew's advice)

🎯Premium Research & Analysis:

Part II — Stock Market:
5) What I'm Investing in (my stock picks, research and analysis)
6) Notable Insider Trades from Billionaires, Politicians and CEO's
7) Trade of the Week (options trading)
8) Stocks to Watch (catalysts, earnings, and news)

Part III — Real Estate:
9) Real Estate and Housing Market Analysis
10) Interest Rate Predictions (and current rates)

Part IV — Macro:
11) Technical Analysis (S&P 500, Tech Stocks, Bitcoin)
12) Economic Outlook & Market Sentiment
13) Important Earning Announcements (and what to watch)
14) Important Economic Events

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1) Andrew’s Market Analysis:

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 8.4%, the Nasdaq is up 9.2%, Gold is up 26.3%, and Bitcoin is up 25.7%. This week:

1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs. In fact, the S&P 500 set a new record every day this week, its longest such streak in over a year. We are witnessing one of the best 3-month rallies in history.

2. Alphabet GOOG 0.00%↑ beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates amid strong and growing demand in cloud products and services, and growth in search and advertising despite AI competition

   

3. Tesla TSLA 0.00%↑ missed Q2 earnings and revenue estimates on a second-straight quarterly revenue drop amid political backlash against Musk, higher tariff costs, and the expiration of federal EV tax credits

   

4. Silver climbs to its highest price in almost 14 years.

   

5. VIX index fell to its lowest since February.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

This rally isn’t just about short-term hype. It reflects the return of confidence. Consumers are spending. Companies are adapting to AI. The Fed’s likely to ease up on rates soon. And investors are betting that the worst is behind us.

A low VIX means less market anxiety. When people aren't scared, they're more likely to buy stocks, pushing prices up. This is part of why we're seeing these all-time highs.

We're not just buying silver as a safe haven anymore: We need it to build the future (solar panels, electric cars, AI data centers). This reminds me of oil in the 1970s. Everyone focused on the price spikes, but the smart money saw the supply crunch coming years early.

The Tech Reign Continues: Google's success proves that innovation, especially in critical areas like cloud computing and AI, drives growth. Companies that adapt and invest in the future (like Google pouring money into AI) will lead the pack. Think about Steve Jobs: he didn't just make a phone, he created an ecosystem that kept people coming back (and spending!). Google's doing something similar with its constant evolution in AI and cloud services. The companies truly investing in future technologies, not just riding trends, are the ones that'll stay on top.

Ride the Cloud Wave: Look for companies that are leaders in cloud computing and AI. These aren't just software companies; they're the backbone of the digital economy. Think about the infrastructure providers, data centers, and AI platform developers. Their growth looks set to continue.

Don't Chase the Hype: When the market is hitting new highs every day, it's easy to get caught up in the "fear of missing out" (FOMO). Remember what Warren Buffett always says: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Don't blindly jump into hot stocks just because everyone else is. Do your own research! Ask yourself, "Am I buying this because it's a good company, or because it went up a lot this week?"

👉 For daily insights, follow me on Twitter/ X, Instagram Threads, or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!

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2) Important Events this Week (with my analysis):

This week, we analyze:

1) Americans under 30 are so miserable that the U.S. just fell to a historically low ranking in the World Happiness Report.

2) Gen Z with college degrees now have the same unemployment rate as non-grads, a sign that the higher education payoff is dead.

3) Top economist sounds the alarm even louder on the housing market and says homebuilders are ‘giving up’. 

4) Goldman Sachs is getting worried about the economy. 

5) Inflation outpacing wage growth for over 40% of Americans.

1️⃣ Americans under 30 are so miserable that the U.S. just fell to a historically low ranking in the World Happiness Report.

The U.S. has fallen to its lowest ranking ever (No. 24) in the World Happiness Report. And it’s mainly because people under 30 feel lost, lonely, and left behind.

That’s not just sad—it’s a red flag. When young people feel hopeless, it impacts everything: mental health, productivity, the job market, and future consumer spending. If this group doesn’t feel optimistic, they won’t invest, buy homes, or build families—and that weakens long-term economic growth.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

This is a wake-up call about the real costs of social disconnection, economic pressure, and inequality. Community, trust, and mental well-being matter just as much as GDP—and might even be leading indicators of where a society is headed.

Investing insight: Watch for companies and sectors that focus on mental health, social connection (think digital wellness, counseling platforms, wellness apps), and even affordable lifestyle services. There’s growing demand here.

2️⃣ Gen Z men with college degrees now have the same unemployment rate as non-grads, a sign that the higher education payoff is dead.

For decades, the path was simple: earn a college degree and secure a good job. That path is now broken. New data show that for young men, having a college degree offers no advantage in the job market. Their unemployment rate is now the same as that of individuals who never attended college. Many are opting for skilled trades like plumbing and carpentry, which offer excellent pay without the crushing debt.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

This signals a massive power shift in the economy. The value is no longer in the credential (the piece of paper) but in the actual skill. This challenges the entire multi-trillion dollar higher education industry. It suggests that the massive student loan burden many carry might have been a bad investment. We're seeing the revenge of the real economy, where what you can do matters more than what you've studied.

Personal Finance Tip: Before taking on debt for a degree, you must analyze its return on investment (ROI). Ask, "What specific, in-demand skill will this give me?" A $15,000 trade school certificate that leads to a $90,000/year job is a much smarter financial move than a $150,000 liberal arts degree that leads to a job at a coffee shop.

Investing insight: Industrial and construction companies that need skilled trade workers will benefit from this trend.

3️⃣ Top economist sounds the alarm even louder on the housing market and says homebuilders are ‘giving up’.

Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi says it’s “red flare” time for housing. Mortgage rates near 7% are choking sales, and homebuilders are now backing off on new builds—delaying land deals and pulling listings at record rates. National home prices could fall by a mid-single-digit percent in the next 18 to 24 months, especially in places like the South and West. That’s the worst slump since the 2008 crisis.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

Why does this matter? Housing is the backbone of America’s wealth. When people can’t buy or sell homes, it stops them from moving for jobs, spending at local stores, and building wealth. In history, housing slowdowns often warn of wider recessions, since building and selling homes powers so many other jobs.

Advice: If you’re buying? Don’t rush. Prices may drop further. If you’re already a homeowner, consider locking in your mortgage (if you haven’t). Rental properties could face less demand and lower rent, so don’t overpay. For traders, look at homebuilder stocks—volatility brings opportunities to buy low when the pessimism peaks.

4️⃣ Goldman Sachs is getting worried about the economy.

Goldman Sachs has just slashed its economic growth forecast and increased recession odds to 30%, double the normal level. When the smartest people on Wall Street get nervous, we should take notice.

Their worry? Trump's tariffs are going to crush consumer spending just as the economy's already slowing down. They're predicting inflation will hit 3.3% this year while economic growth drops to just 1.1%.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

Translation: We're heading for stagflation (high inflation + slow growth). That's the worst possible combo for regular Americans.

Recession Playbook:

• Build cash reserves (aim for 6-12 months of expenses)

• Buy dividend-paying stocks in recession-proof industries (utilities, consumer staples)

• Avoid growth stocks (they get crushed in recessions)

• Consider Treasury bonds (they'll rally when rates fall)

Contrarian Opportunity: Remember what Warren Buffett says: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." When Goldman Sachs warns of recession, start preparing your shopping list for when everything goes on sale.

5️⃣ Inflation outpacing wage growth for over 40% of Americans.

For over 40% of Americans, their paychecks are not keeping up with inflation. Even if they got a raise, rising prices for gas, food, and rent have effectively given them a pay cut. Their purchasing power is shrinking, and it's hitting low- and middle-income families the hardest.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

This is the real-world impact of all the abstract economic data. GDP growth doesn't matter if you can't afford your groceries. When a huge portion of the population feels poorer, they pull back on spending, which is the engine of the U.S. economy. This is the most direct link between inflation and a potential recession. It also fuels the unhappiness and social stress we talked about in the first point. An economy where work no longer pays the bills is fundamentally unstable.

Actionable Advice:

• Investing: When consumers feel squeezed, they trade down. This benefits discount retailers (like Walmart and Dollar General). It hurts companies that rely on discretionary spending from the middle class.

• Personal Finance: You have to become the Chief Financial Officer of your own life. Track your spending meticulously for one month to see where your money is actually going. You can't fix what you don't measure. Second, with wage growth slowing, you can't wait for your boss to give you a raise. You need to build your skills and be prepared to find a new job that pays what you're worth. In this economy, loyalty to a company can be expensive.

Other important headlines this week:

• President Trump says he is considering eliminating the capital gains tax on houses.

• JPMorgan considers offering loans backed by clients' cryptocurrency holdings.

• Federal Housing Director Pulte says Fed Chair Jerome Powell's resignation speech is "coming soon."

• LinkedIn is now processing 11,000 job application submissions per minute—a 45% surge from last year, per NYT.

• President Trump Signs Crypto Genius Act into Law.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on Twitter/ X, Instagram Threads, or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!

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3) Charts & Numbers To Know:

This week, we analyze:

1) The US M2 money supply surged +4.5% YoY in June to a record $22.02 trillion. money printing is back. 

2) YouTube now owns 12.5% of all U.S. TV viewing time - more than any other distributor.

3) In 2008, Foreigners owned 57% of U.S. Treasuries. Today, they only own 32%. 

4) Unemployment is surging for recent grads.

5) U.S. Semiconductor Stocks now account for roughly 11% of the S&P 500, an all-time high 

1️⃣ The US M2 money supply surged +4.5% YoY in June to a record $22.02 trillion. Money printing is back.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

What’s happening:
The M2 money supply hit a new record: $22 trillion in June 2025. That’s a +4.5% jump year over year, the biggest increase since mid-2022. M2 tracks all the cash in the economy — in checking accounts, savings, and short-term deposits.

Why it matters:
When the government pumps more money into the system (aka "money printing"), it often drives up inflation, lowers the value of the dollar, and inflates asset prices like stocks, real estate, and crypto.

Long-term view:
If history repeats, we may see bubbles inflate in risky assets (think tech stocks, meme stocks, crypto). But inflation risk also rises. Your dollars may buy less.

Investor Advice:
When the money supply rises, hedge with real assets: gold, Bitcoin, real estate, and stocks tied to pricing power. Think companies like Apple or Costco — they can raise prices without losing customers.

2️⃣ YouTube now owns 12.5% of all U.S. TV viewing time - more than any other distributor.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

What’s happening:
YouTube just became the #1 TV platform in America, grabbing 12.5% of all U.S. TV time. That’s more than Disney, Netflix, or NBC. No big Hollywood studios. Just creators and algorithms.

Why it matters:
This is a media power shift. YouTube is disrupting traditional TV and streaming. It’s where younger viewers go. And advertisers follow attention.

Long-term view:
Ad dollars will keep flowing to platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram Reels. If you’re a creator, brand, or investor — this is where the future lives.

Investor Advice:
Alphabet ($GOOGL) owns YouTube. This growth gives it pricing power in digital ads. It’s not just a search company — it’s a video giant now. Stay long if you believe in content without cable.

3️⃣ In 2008, Foreigners owned 57% of U.S. Treasuries. Today, they only own 32%.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

What’s happening:
Back in 2008, foreign investors owned 57% of U.S. Treasuries. Today, they own just 32%. That’s a steep decline in trust — or interest — in U.S. debt.

Why it matters:
If fewer foreign buyers show up, the U.S. may have to offer higher interest rates to attract buyers — which pushes up mortgage rates, loan rates, and slows the economy.

Long-term view:
This is a red flag for U.S. fiscal health. If we rely on ourselves to fund debt, it gets more expensive. That crowds out spending on other things — like infrastructure or innovation.

Investor Advice:
Watch the bond market. If yields spike, it’s a sign of stress. Consider short-term bonds or dividend-paying stocks to hedge. Also, watch gold and inflation-protected assets.

4️⃣ Unemployment is surging for recent grads.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

What’s happening:
Male college grads (ages 22–27) now face 7% unemployment — the highest outside the pandemic since 2011. Meanwhile, female grads are doing well, especially in healthcare roles.

Why it matters:
We’re seeing a labor mismatch. Male grads aren’t finding jobs in growth sectors, while women are filling stable healthcare jobs. Some degrees don’t pay off anymore — especially for men.

Long-term view:
We could be facing a skills gap. This may reshape college choices, push more people into trade schools or bootcamps, and fuel wage inequality between industries and genders.

Investor tip:
Look at trends in healthcare, AI training, and vocational education stocks. Also, expect more policy focus on reskilling and labor training. Think long-term bets on companies like Coursera, 2U, or even healthcare staffing firms.

5️⃣ U.S. Semiconductor Stocks now account for roughly 11% of the S&P 500, an all-time high.

💡Andrew’s Analysis:

What’s happening:
Chipmakers now make up over 11% of the entire S&P 500. That’s the biggest share ever. Think NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Intel, and TSMC.

Why it matters:
Chips power everything — AI, iPhones, cloud, EVs. The AI boom has made semis the new oil of this economy. But when one sector gets this big, it also gets risky.

Long-term view:
Booms create bubbles. We saw it with dot-com stocks in 2000. This isn’t a call to bail, but a warning to watch valuations. The future is digital, but the ride could get bumpy.

Investor tip:
Hold quality names like NVIDIA ($NVDA) if you believe in AI. But diversify. Don’t go all-in on one chipmaker. Think ETFs like SOXX or SMH to spread risk across the sector.

👉For more charts, follow me on Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, and turn on notifications!

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4) Financial Question of The Week (Andrew’s advice):

Welcome to our weekly mailbag, where I tackle the real-life money questions that you send me!

Question: Should I take a $200,000 lump sum now or get $1,000 a month for 30 years?

💡Andrew’s Advice:

This question hits at the heart of one of finance's most important concepts: the time value of money.

The Math Behind Your Decision

First, let's do the simple math. $1,000 per month for 30 years equals $360,000 total ($1,000 x 12 months x 30 years). That's $160,000 more than the lump sum! But here's where it gets interesting (and why most financial experts would tell you to take the lump sum).

Why the Lump Sum Usually Wins

Warren Buffett once said, "Time is the friend of the wonderful company, the enemy of the mediocre." The same applies to your money. Money today is worth more than money tomorrow because you can invest it and let compound interest work its magic.

Here's what happens if you take that $200,000 and invest it in a simple S&P 500 index fund:

• At 7% annual returns (the historical average), your $200,000 becomes $1.52 million in 30 years

• At 10% annual returns, it becomes $3.49 million

• Meanwhile, your monthly payments total just $360,000

The difference? You could end up with $1.16 million to $3.13 million MORE by taking the lump sum.

But There's a Catch (The Psychology Factor)

Here's where human behavior gets messy. Most people who receive lump sums do not invest them wisely. They buy cars, take vacations, or make emotional investment decisions. If you're not disciplined with money, the monthly payments might actually be better for you.

Think of it like this: Would you rather have $200,000 in your bank account right now, or would you prefer a guaranteed "paycheck" of $1,000 every month for three decades?

Take the lump sum if:

• You have strong financial discipline

• You understand basic investing

• You already have an emergency fund

• You won't be tempted to spend it on lifestyle upgrades

Take the monthly payments if:

• You struggle with saving money

• You've never invested before

• You need a guaranteed income for living expenses

• You're worried about market crashes

The Smart Middle Ground

If you take the lump sum, here's exactly what to do:

1. Pay off high-interest debt first (anything above 6-7%)

2. Keep 3-6 months of expenses in a high-yield savings account

3. Invest the rest in low-cost index funds (like Vanguard's S&P 500 fund)

4. Set up automatic investing so you can't touch the money

5. Pretend the money doesn't exist for at least 10 years

Bottom Line: If you're financially disciplined, the lump sum will likely make you much wealthier. If you're not, the monthly payments provide safety and peace of mind.

Thank you to Marcus Thompson for sending us this week's question. If you have a question, please email me or DM me, and I will answer it next week!

Question: I'm 36 with no retirement savings and I'm feeling behind. What should I do first: pay off debt, save for retirement, or buy a house?

💡Andrew’s Advice:

First, take a deep breath. You're not alone, and you're not too late. Nearly 40% of Americans have less than $1,000 saved for retirement, so you're in good company. The fact that you're asking this question at 36 means you still have 30+ years to build wealth.

The Dave Ramsey vs. Traditional Finance Debate

This question sits at the center of a huge debate in personal finance. Dave Ramsey says "pay off debt first, then save." Traditional financial advisors say "do both at the same time." Let me give you the real answer: it depends on your debt interest rates.

Pay debt first if:

• You have credit card debt (usually 18-25% interest)

• You have personal loans above 8% interest

• You have no employer 401(k) match

Split your focus if:

• Your debt is mostly student loans (4-6% interest)

• Your employer offers a 401(k) match

• You have a stable job and income

The 401(k) Match Exception

Here's the one rule that trumps everything: Always contribute enough to get your full employer 401(k) match. This is literally free money. If your employer matches 50% of your contributions up to 6% of your salary, that's an instant 50% return on your investment. No debt payoff strategy beats a guaranteed 50% return.

Why the House Can Wait (For Now)

I know this might sting, but buying a house shouldn't be your priority right now. Here's why:

1. You need retirement savings more than home equity at 36

2. Houses come with hidden costs (maintenance, taxes, insurance)

3. Renting gives you flexibility to focus on debt and retirement

4. The stock market historically outperforms real estate for long-term wealth building

Step-by-Step Plan

Month 1-3: Foundation Building

• Build a $1,000 emergency fund (bare minimum)

• List all your debts with interest rates

• Sign up for your employer's 401(k) to get the full match

Month 4-12: Debt Attack Mode

• Pay minimums on all debt

• Throw every extra dollar at your highest interest rate debt

• Keep contributing to get your 401(k) match

• Ignore the house for now

Year 2: Acceleration Phase

• Once high-interest debt is gone, increase retirement savings to 15% of income

• Build emergency fund to 3-6 months of expenses

• Now you can start thinking about a house down payment

Compound Interest

Let's say you start saving $500 per month for retirement at 36. With a 7% annual return, you'll have about $740,000 by age 67. Not bad for starting "late!"

But here's the thing: Every year you wait costs you big time. If you wait until 40 to start, that same $500 per month only grows to about $520,000. Starting now is worth $220,000 more than waiting four years.

The Psychology of Money at 36

At 36, you're facing what psychologists call "temporal discounting" - the tendency to value immediate rewards over future benefits. Your brain wants the house now because it's tangible. Retirement feels too far away to matter.

But remember: 67-year-old you will thank 36-year-old you for making the hard choice to prioritize retirement. Warren Buffett didn't become wealthy until his 50s and 60s. You have plenty of time if you start now.

The Truth About Houses

Houses are great for stability and building equity, but they're not investments in the traditional sense. Your primary residence costs you money every month (mortgage, taxes, maintenance, insurance). Your 401(k) makes you money every month through compound growth.

Bottom Line:

1. Get the 401(k) match immediately (free money)

2. Attack high-interest debt aggressively (anything above 6-7%)

3. Build emergency fund to 3-6 months of expenses

4. Increase retirement savings to 15% of income

5. Then and only then save for a house

You're not behind - you're just getting started. The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is today.

Thank you to Jennifer Rodriguez for sending us this week's question. If you have a question, please email me or DM me, and I will answer it next week!

👉 For daily insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads, and turn on notifications!

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5) Stocks I’m Investing in (my stock picks, research and analysis):

This week, we analyze:

1) Serve Robotics (SERV)

2) Arista Networks (ANET)

3) Nvidia (NVDA)

1️⃣ Serve Robotics SERV 0.00%↑ : The Delivery Revolution Is Already Here

Forget flying cars. Serve is quietly building a robot army... that delivers your burrito. And it’s not a moonshot—it’s already rolling.

Serve makes small, self-driving sidewalk robots that deliver food and packages. These aren’t prototypes. They're live, and they work. That’s the edge.

Here’s what’s exciting:

• Revenue jumped 150% last quarter to $440K. That’s from scaling their third-gen bots—over 250 were built and deployed.

• They’re now reaching 320,000 homes, up 110% from just December.

• 1,500+ merchants are on board, a 50% jump.

• Most important? A 99.8% delivery success rate. That’s nearly perfect.

But it’s not just about delivery. Serve has quietly started selling its software and data platform, which could become the real money-maker. They've landed deals with a major European automaker and an autonomous trucking firm.

Why does that matter?

This is the Amazon playbook. Start with logistics, then sell the platform. Just like Amazon went from books to AWS, Serve could go from burritos to software-as-a-service (SaaS).

Now zoom out:

• They're sitting on $198 million in cash (as of Q1 2025).

• They're scaling to 2,000 robots by 2026, with a projected $60–$80 million run-rate.

• Meanwhile, the market for delivery robots and autonomous systems is exploding.

Think about it this way: if you missed buying DoorDash early, this might be your shot at owning the rails of the next phase.

The Risk I’m Watching: The main risk is their path to profitability. The current gross margin is deeply negative, meaning they are losing money on every delivery to capture the market. I’m betting that as they scale, the economics will flip positive. We also need to watch for regulatory hurdles from cities and competition from giants like Amazon.

Bottom Line: Serve isn’t just a robotics company. It’s a real-world AI play with growing revenue, expanding margins (eventually), and a SaaS tailwind that could drive massive multiples. Execution risk is real—but so is the upside.

2️⃣ Arista Networks ANET 0.00%↑ : The Digital Backbone of AI

If AI is the brain, Arista is the nervous system. It builds the high-speed networking gear that makes AI work at scale. That includes big data centers and AI clusters for companies like Microsoft and Meta.

Check this out:

• Revenue jumped from $4.3B in 2022 to $7B in 2024.

• Free cash flow? Up 700% in that span.

• Q1 2025 showed 28% revenue growth year over year.

They just approved a $1.5 billion buyback, which shows management is confident in the runway ahead.

Here’s what’s exciting:

• AI clusters need fast, stable, and scalable networks to function. Arista delivers that with low latency and high reliability.

• They also acquired Broadcom’s SD-WAN portfolio—giving them even more control over enterprise networks.

What makes this a compelling buy?

1. Profit machine. High margins, low debt, tons of cash.

2. Tailwinds. Every AI investment (from training to deployment) needs Arista’s tech.

3. Underrated brand. Everyone talks about Nvidia. But Nvidia can’t run without a strong network.

This is your “picks and shovels” play in the AI gold rush. Like buying the routers before everyone else builds data mines.

The Risk I’m Watching: Their biggest strength is also a risk: customer concentration. A huge portion of their revenue comes from a few massive cloud companies. If one of those companies were to slow down its spending, it would hit Arista's numbers hard.

Bottom Line: Arista isn’t flashy—but it’s essential. It’s also still undervalued compared to pure AI hype stocks. Long-term, this is a strong compounder that quietly crushes expectations.

3️⃣ Nvidia NVDA 0.00%↑ : The Brains Powering the Robotics and AI Boom

You already know Nvidia. What’s new? It’s not just about GPUs for chatbots anymore.

Now, Nvidia wants to power every robot, everywhere.

And it’s already happening.

• In Q1 FY26, Nvidia posted $44.1B in revenue, up 69% YoY.

• $39.1B came from data centers, thanks to AI demand.

• AI inference tokens (think ChatGPT usage) are up 10x in a year.

But here’s the wild part: Nvidia just launched Jetson Thor, a mini supercomputer for humanoid robots.

• It packs 2,000 teraflops of processing power.

• It’s already being used by Tesla's Optimus and Figure AI.

On top of that, Nvidia built Isaac, its full robotics AI platform. That includes:

• GR00T N1: pre-trained models for robotic "thinking"

• Isaac Sim: virtual training for real-world robots

It’s not just making the chips anymore—it’s building the entire ecosystem.

Think about it like this:
If Tesla is trying to be the Apple of robots, Nvidia is the iOS + A-series chip powering them all.

Even at a $4.2T valuation, Nvidia is eating up AI capex like no other. It owns 92% of the GPU market in data centers. Hyperscalers are projected to spend $1.1 trillion by 2029. Nvidia’s the toll booth.

The Risk I’m Watching: The risks are proportional to the size of the prize. Geopolitical risk, specifically the reliance on manufacturing in Taiwan, is the number one concern. Second is the sky-high valuation, which prices in years of flawless execution. Any stumble could cause a severe correction. Finally, competition from both rivals and their own customers designing their own chips is a persistent threat.

Bottom Line: Yes, it’s expensive. But it’s got dominant share, massive margins, and it’s becoming the brain, spine, and bones of AI. If you're long AI, you’re long Nvidia.

👉For more insights, follow me on Twitter/ X, Instagram Threads, and turn on notifications.

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6) Notable Insider Trades from Billionaires, Politicians and CEO’s:

1) Elevance Health ELV 0.00%↑

Elevance Health $ELV had its own CEO, Gail Boudreaux, make a massive purchase of her company's stock, filed on July 18, 2025. Elevance Health $ELV saw its CEO invest over $2.4 million to buy 8,500 shares.

Elevance Health $ELV is one of the largest health insurance providers in the United States, a core pillar of the nation's healthcare infrastructure. This is the ultimate "skin in the game" signal. A multi-million dollar open-market buy from a CEO is one of the most bullish indicators you can find. The CEO knows more about the company's future challenges and opportunities than anyone on Wall Street. This huge investment of her own capital is a powerful statement that she believes the stock is undervalued and that good things are ahead. With an aging population guaranteeing more demand for health services, this trade suggests the leader of the company sees a clear runway for growth, regardless of any political chatter around healthcare.

2) La Rosa Holdings Corp. LRHC 0.00%↑

La Rosa Holdings Corp. $LRHC had its CEO and interim CFO, Joseph La Rosa, make a huge bet on his own company in a trade filed July 21, 2025. La Rosa Holdings Corp. $LRHC saw its founder purchase 150,000 shares for a total of over $1.1 million.

La Rosa Holdings Corp. $LRHC is a real estate brokerage firm that just recently became a publicly traded company. This is an incredibly bold and contrarian move. The housing market is facing serious challenges from high mortgage rates, making many investors pessimistic. When the CEO of a real estate company makes a million-dollar investment in this environment, he is screaming that he believes the market is wrong. This is a signal that he sees something others don't: perhaps his company's unique business model is resilient, or he believes the worst of the housing slump is behind us. For investors, big insider buys in beaten-down and unpopular sectors can often signal a bottom is near.

3) Loews Corp. L 0.00%↑

U.S. Representative French Hill bought Loews Corp. L 0.00%↑ in a transaction filed on July 25, 2025. Loews Corp. $L saw the Arkansas politician purchase between $50,000 and $100,000 of the company’s stock.

Loews Corp. $L is not a flashy tech company; it’s a holding company, much like a smaller version of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. It primarily operates in the insurance business, using the cash collected from premiums—called "float"—to make smart, long-term investments. This trade is interesting because it’s a bet on a timeless, value-oriented business model in an uncertain economy. It’s a signal that smart money may be flowing towards stable, cash-generating companies that can weather a storm. When an influential politician with a deep financial background buys a company like this, it’s a vote of confidence in a disciplined, long-term approach to wealth creation, not a bet on a short-term pop.

4) Markel Corp. MKL 0.00%↑

Markel Corp. $MKL also saw a significant purchase from Representative French Hill, reported on the same July 25, 2025 filing. Markel Corp. $MKL had the congressman investing between $50,000 and $100,000 into the company.

Markel Corp. $MKL is another company often called a "Baby Berkshire." It is fundamentally a specialty insurance company that uses its underwriting profits and insurance float to buy whole businesses and invest in stocks. Seeing this trade alongside the Loews purchase reveals a clear strategy. This isn't a random stock pick; it's part of a theme. The theme is a bet on companies that are masters of capital allocation. These are not businesses that will double overnight. They are businesses built to compound wealth steadily over decades. This is a lesson for all investors: don't just chase what's hot. Look for businesses with a durable competitive advantage and management teams that think like owners.

5) White Mountains Insurance Group WTM 0.00%↑

White Mountains Insurance Group $WTM completes the three trades made by Representative French Hill, disclosed on July 25, 2025. White Mountains Insurance Group $WTM was purchased in a size between $50,000 and $100,000.

White Mountains Insurance Group $WTM follows the exact same playbook as the other two companies: it’s an insurance and investment holding company. The pattern here is impossible to ignore and incredibly telling. This politician is not speculating; he is investing in a specific, proven business model that thrives on financial discipline. In a market obsessed with AI hype and quick gains, this move is deeply contrarian. It’s a belief that future market leadership may come from boring, profitable companies that are experts at managing risk and investing capital. This is a masterclass in thematic investing. Don't just look at one trade; look for patterns. A pattern reveals a deep conviction in a specific idea about the future.

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7) Trade of the Week (options trading):

Bullish on Eaton Corp ETN 0.00%↑

Friday, Eaton Corp saw a huge jump in call option volume—over 90,000 contracts traded, which is 52 times more than normal.. Most of that action came from a 30,000-lot butterfly call spread placed on the September 19, 2025 expiration.

Here’s how the trade was structured:

• Bought the $380 call

• Sold two of the $410 calls

• Bought the $440 call
  This was done 30,000 times (meaning 60,000 contracts) for a net cost of $8 per spread.

What this means in plain English:
This is a targeted bullish bet. The trader is betting that Eaton’s stock will climb and then settle close to $410 by mid-September. That’s the “sweet spot” of the butterfly where they make the most money. They’re also expecting the stock to calm down afterward (low volatility), which helps this strategy work. If Eaton overshoots or undershoots that $410 mark, the payout drops off.

Why now?
Eaton reports earnings on August 5, and this move says traders think good news is coming—likely strong results or guidance—and that the stock may pop and land around $410.

About Eaton:
Eaton Corp is a global power management company. Think electrical systems, energy-efficient tech, and industrial infrastructure. It’s been riding the clean energy wave and benefitting from government incentives around infrastructure and electrification. Recently, analysts have raised price targets thanks to the company’s margin growth and exposure to EV and data center demand.

My take:
This is a smart-money bullish bet, but it’s a calculated one, not a YOLO. Butterfly spreads limit risk and reward, so this trade is likely from a pro trader who sees a high-probability move to $410. I’m bullish on this trade because Eaton’s fundamentals are solid, and its exposure to long-term infrastructure and clean tech trends is strong.

Follow the smart money.

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8) 10 Stocks to Watch (catalysts, earnings, and news):

1) Medpace $MEDP up +48% on Jul 22

Medpace makes clinical trial services for drug developers. It jumped 48% after it beat Q2 profit and revenue forecasts and raised full‑year guidance. That tells you big clients trust Medpace to deliver data fast and on budget. When a stock soars on guidance it often shows shares can climb further if the story stays strong.

Watch its next guidance update and consider riding the momentum with a trailing stop to lock in gains.

2) Bloom Energy $BE up +23% on Jul 24

Bloom Energy sells fuel cells that power data centers and offices. It jumped 23% after striking a deal with Oracle to supply AI‑center power at its cloud sites. You will see high demand for green, reliable on‑site power as AI growth booms.

I expect more cloud deals, and will buy shares ahead of similar announcements or use a bull call spread to cap risk.

3) West Pharmaceutical $WST up +23% on Jul 24

West Pharmaceutical makes packaging and delivery systems for medicines. It rose 23% after it lifted its profit forecast, saying tariffs won’t hit it as hard as feared. Strong pricing power and cost control can drive big upside.

Look for other healthcare suppliers with tariff easing or margin boosts, then trade a simple long position.

4) Coursera $COUR up +20% on Jul 24

Coursera runs an online learning platform. It’s up 20% after beating Q2 earnings and revenue estimates and giving upbeat Q3 guidance. Online education is still picking up speed, so you could get in early by buying shares or using out‑of‑the‑money calls before its next earnings beat.

5) American Eagle Outfitters $AEO up +18% on Jul 24

American Eagle sells casual apparel for young adults. It climbed 18% after launching a new ad campaign with Sydney Sweeney, sparking meme‑stock style interest. Strong brand buzz can drive big short squeezes. If you believe the hype, you can buy the stock with a tight stop or trade a quick call spread to ride the viral wave.

6) IQVIA $IQV up +17% on Jul 22

IQVIA provides data and analytics to drug companies. It surged 17% after narrowing full‑year profit guidance and beating Q2 results. Clarity on earnings can soothe investors and fuel rallies.

Scan for other healthcare data firms trimming guidance ranges—then lean in with a long call.

7) Lamb Weston $LW up +16% on Jul 23

Lamb Weston makes frozen fries and potato products. It rose 16% after beating Q4 earnings and unveiling a cost‑cutting plan to save $250 million a year by 2028. Strong consumer staples with smart savings programs can surprise the market.

Consider a covered call position to collect income while owning shares.

8) GE Vernova $GEV up +14% on Jul 23

GE Vernova builds power turbines and grid solutions. It jumped 14% on strong H1 results and raised full‑year guidance, despite new tariff risks. Essential infrastructure demand can outpace policy noise.

You could buy shares or ladder in via calls as long as power demand stays healthy.

9) D.R. Horton $DHI up +14% on Jul 22

D.R. Horton builds homes across the U.S. It surged 14% after Q3 profit and revenue topped forecasts. A healthy housing market still fuels top‑line growth.

You could buy shares or use a diagonal call spread to harness upside with limited cost if you expect more rate‑driven homebuying.

10) Opendoor Technologies $OPEN up 13% on Jul 22

Opendoor buys and sells homes online. It popped 13% as retail traders chased it as a meme name, sending volume through the roof. Volatility from retail can boost short‑term moves.

You can trade a quick call spread around social‑media spikes—but keep risk tight.

👉For more insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads, and turn on notifications.

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9) Real Estate and Housing Market Analysis:

If you're trying to make sense of the housing market right now, you're not alone. The headlines are confusing. We're seeing more homes for sale than we have in years, which should be great news for buyers. Yet, at the same time, sales are slowing to a crawl. It feels like the market is frozen in place.

So, what's really going on?

We're in the middle of a great housing market standoff. It's a tense face-off between sellers who remember the sky-high prices of a few years ago and buyers who are getting crushed by today's high mortgage rates.

1. Inventory Is Up—But Demand Isn’t

For the 89th week in a row, the number of homes for sale rose—this time by 24%. That’s over 1 million homes on the market, the most we’ve seen since pre-pandemic 2019.

But here’s the twist: Homes are sitting longer. They now take 58 days to sell—8 days longer than last year. And 1 in 5 homes had a price cut in June, the highest share on record for that month.

What this tells you: Sellers are blinking first. They expected bidding wars. What they’re getting is silence. That’s opportunity knocking—for buyers who can afford to act.

Smart Move: If you’re house hunting, don’t rush—but don’t sleep either. Make a list of homes with recent price cuts. Those sellers are more likely to negotiate.

2. New Listings Are Up, But Momentum Is Wobbly

New listings rose 7% from this time last year, a welcome sign after two months of decline. But the pace is flattening out. Sellers are spooked by weak buyer activity and sky-high mortgage rates. Some are pulling listings or letting them expire rather than cut prices further.

This "seller standoff" keeps dragging out the timeline to recovery.

Smart Move: If you’re selling, price realistically from day one. In this market, time is not your friend. Overpricing = longer days on market = inevitable price cuts.

3. Mortgage Rates Are Still Stubbornly High

Mortgage rates held steady at 6.74%. Even with political pressure to cut rates, they’ve barely budged. The reason? Inflation worries and ballooning national debt have created a “high floor” for rates. Don’t expect a miracle drop anytime soon.

The latest forecast? We might see rates settle near 6.4% by year-end. But that’s a crawl, not a crash.

Smart Move: If you’re waiting for rates to fall under 5%, you might be waiting a while. Instead, focus on buying the right home—you can always refinance later.

Warren Buffett once said: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Today’s housing fear might be tomorrow’s financial win.

4. Existing Home Sales Just Fell Below 4 Million Again

In June, existing home sales dropped to 3.93 million, down 2.7% from May. That’s the slowest pace since September 2024—and below the 4M threshold we’ve hovered above since the pandemic.

Even though price cuts and inventory are rising, buyers remain cautious. Why? High monthly payments and financial uncertainty. For many, renting is still cheaper—by an estimated $900/month.

But that gap won’t last forever.

Smart Move: Use this slower market to stack your savings, repair your credit, and get pre-approved. When the market tilts, you'll be ready to pounce.

5. New-Home Sales Are Sluggish Despite Lower Prices

New-home sales rose just 0.6% in June from May, but are still down 6.6% year over year. Builders are now offering smaller, more affordable homes. The median new-home price dropped to $401,800—down nearly 5% in one month.

And here’s something unusual: There are now more homes for sale that haven’t even been started yet than those that are move-in ready. Builders are waiting for buyers to commit before breaking ground. That’s caution—and fear—on both sides.

Smart Move: If you’re a buyer open to new construction, this is your edge. Builders with inventory on the ground may offer rate buydowns, closing cost credits, or upgrades to seal the deal. Don’t be afraid to ask.

6. Regionally, the South and Midwest Are Heating Up

Sales in the Northeast and West took a dive, while the South and Midwest are holding steady—or even rising. Why? Affordability.

As buyers flee expensive coastal markets, they’re searching for better value in the middle of the country. Expect continued migration trends into affordable metros with strong job markets (think Dallas, Nashville, Columbus).

Smart Move: If you're an investor, look where others are moving. Follow the migration. Cash flow and appreciation often follow people and jobs.

7. Renting Still Wins…For Now

Across most U.S. metros, renting is cheaper than buying. That’s kept many first-time buyers on the sidelines, especially with student loans resuming and wages lagging behind inflation.

But here’s the problem: Rent doesn’t build equity. And over a decade, that opportunity cost adds up.

Smart Move: Treat renting as a strategic pause, not a lifestyle. Use this window to improve your down payment, shop lenders, or partner with friends or family to co-invest.

Final Thoughts

This isn’t the 2021 housing frenzy. It’s a market in transition—cooling, rebalancing, resetting expectations on both sides.

If you're a buyer, patience is your power—but don’t mistake patience for inaction. If you're an investor, location and cash flow matter more than ever.

And if you're sitting on the sidelines—watching, wondering, waiting—now’s the time to educate yourself. Know your numbers. Study your market.

👉For more insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads or BlueSky, and turn on notifications.

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10) Interest Rate Predictions (short-term):

In the short term, interest rates should remain flat.

Mortgage rates will stay stuck in the high 6% range, with very little movement up or down. This “holding pattern” is a result of the Federal Reserve playing it safe—watching for steady drops in inflation and some softness in the job market before making any bold moves. The Fed doesn’t want to confuse anyone, so it’s sticking to its cautious, data-first stance.

That means mortgage rates probably won’t budge much at the upcoming Fed meeting. Even though there’s talk about possible rate cuts later this year, no one expects the Fed to jump unless inflation shows a real, lasting slowdown. Inflation did heat up a bit in June, plus new tariffs and government spending are keeping pressure on prices. These headwinds push up Treasury yields, and by extension, keep mortgage rates from dropping.

If inflation cools and job growth slows gently, the Fed is expected to cut rates—possibly starting in September. But most predictions say any cuts will be small and spread out.

Looking ahead, I see mortgage rates dipping to around 6.4% by year’s end and maybe reaching 5% in a few years, but there’s no “quick fix” or move back to those super-low pandemic rates anytime soon. The path is slow and steady, with rates likely easing more as we approach 2026 and beyond.

Tips for navigating today’s market:

• If you’re a buyer: Bring patience. There’s more housing inventory now, and sellers are more willing to negotiate. Take your time, know your numbers, and don’t overreach—higher rates mean higher monthly payments, so focus on what you can truly afford.

• If you’re an investor: Look for deals where higher rates have forced sellers’ hands, especially in markets with long-term job and population growth. Prioritize steady cash flow; assume appreciation will be slow for now.

• If you’re waiting to refinance: Stay on top of market news, and be ready to jump when rates do drop. Don’t stretch for a home today if you have to strain your budget, believing you’ll refinance soon—a lot can change before that happens.

Current rates:

The 30-year mortgage is now 6.81%, which is +0.02 higher than last month, and -0.10 lower than last year:

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11) Technical Analysis (S&P 500, Tech Stocks, Bitcoin):

1) S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑ (Short-term): Positive

The S&P 500 just closed at 6,389, up +25 on July 25, 2025. This index is moving in a clear rising trend—prices are climbing, optimism is growing, and buyers keep stepping up. There’s no real resistance above (meaning, nothing is blocking further gains for now), so the path looks open for more highs. If the market dips, watch for support near 6,270, where buyers may show up again.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is over 70, which is pretty high—this means the S&P 500 is “hot” in the short run. When RSI gets this high, there’s a risk that stocks are getting overbought, which sometimes means a pullback could come soon, especially as big investors might take some profits. But overall, the short-term outlook is strong and positive, especially for the next 1-6 weeks.

2) Tech Stocks QQQ 0.00%↑ (Short-term): Positive

The Nasdaq-100 closed at 23,272, up +52 on July 25, 2025. It’s also in a strong rising trend and momentum is high—just like the S&P, buyers are eager and there’s no ceiling in sight right now. Support is down at 21,400, but the RSI is high (well over 70). This tells a similar story: the market is strong, investors are buying fast, but if things get too hot, a short pullback or pause can happen.

3) Bitcoin $BTC (Short-term): Positive

Bitcoin wrapped up at 118,247, up +720 as of July 27, 2025. This crypto is in a rising channel too, and the recent breakout above 107,710 confirmed another run higher—the initial target at 115,727 has now been met. Right now, support is at 115,500 and resistance at 120,800. But there’s a twist: even though price is going up, the RSI is now drifting down (whereas price is still climbing). Also, volume peaks aren’t matching new price highs, which can be an early warning. This usually means the run could be getting tired, and some traders might start locking in profits.

Technicals are still slightly positive, but the signals are getting weaker, hinting that momentum could fade soon.

Remember, when price goes one way and momentum/volume don’t follow, pullbacks often come next.

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12) Economic Outlook and Market Sentiment:

1) Fear & Greed Index = Greed

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 74, firmly in greed territory. Six of its seven signals—market momentum, price strength, breadth, options flow, safe‑haven demand, and junk bond demand—are flashing strong greed, while only volatility stays neutral. This tells you investors are chasing gains and pushing stocks higher without much pushback.

2) AAII Investor Index (6-Month Outlook) = Neutral

Individual investors are split: 36.8 percent feel bullish, 29.2 percent neutral, and 34 percent bearish. The tiny 2.7 percent bull‑bear spread shows a mixed mood rather than wild optimism or panic. That balance means no major bias—investors aren’t frothing at the mouth but aren’t running for the exits either.

3) Economic Indicators = Mixed (Neutral/Positive)

Overall, the economy shows expansion in jobs, sales, and housing but carries caution flags in growth and the yield curve.

• Volatility (VIX at 10) is low. That’s good because calm markets reward steady gains.

• 10‑Year Yield (4.24 percent) sits in a normal range. That’s neutral, but rising yields can pinch growth stocks.

• Yield Curve (-0.17) is slightly inverted. That’s bad, a classic warning of a future slowdown.

• Home Prices (HPI +3.4 percent) keep climbing. That’s good if you own real estate, but it adds to affordability headaches.

• Inflation (CPI 2.7 percent) is tame. That’s neutral to good, letting consumers breathe.

• Unemployment (4.1 percent) stays healthy. That’s neutral, showing workers still find jobs.

• GDP Growth (-0.3 percent) dipped slightly. That’s bad, hinting at stalled growth.

• Consumer Sentiment (61) is mid‑range. That’s neutral, with shoppers cautious but not panicked.

Advice: Lean into sectors that benefit from low volatility and solid consumer demand—think staples and select real estate funds. At the same time, keep some dry powder in cash or short‑dated bonds to buy on any dip when the yield curve warns get louder.

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13) Important Earnings Announcements:

Here’s what you need to know for the most important earnings releases this week:

1. Apple – All eyes are on Apple’s earnings to see how iPhone sales hold up in a tough global market and whether its new products can spark fresh growth. The big story lately is Apple’s push into “Apple Intelligence” (its version of AI across devices) and its strong focus on services like iCloud, Apple TV, and Apple Music. A bullish setup would be strong sales in China and continued growth from wearables and services. However, if iPhone demand weakens or macro troubles hit spending, expect a bearish reaction. Watch for management’s comments on AI and new tech. If Apple pulls an upside surprise, you could see the stock bounce—smart investors often look for quick trades off post-earnings moves, but don’t chase if guidance slips.

2. Microsoft – Microsoft is riding a wave of excitement around AI investment (its partnership with OpenAI and heavy Azure cloud growth are center stage). The bullish case is another quarter of rapid cloud expansion and big corporate wins in AI-driven products. Any signals of slowing growth, especially in traditional software or if Azure stalls, would be a red flag. Recent headlines highlight new enterprise AI tools and continued growth in cloud services. For traders, strong results could prompt a breakout, but any stumble in cloud guidance could spark a drop—stay nimble and don’t bet the farm.

3. Amazon – Amazon keeps crushing it with e-commerce and, more importantly, its AWS cloud business. Growth in advertising and AI-powered logistics are fueling optimism. Traders are watching for AWS growth especially—if it stays hot, bulls stick around. But if consumer spending cools (higher rates and slower retail sales), or AWS disappoints, the stock could slide. Recent news points to Amazon upping its game in healthcare and groceries, both emerging areas for fresh growth. Look for revenue beats and solid guidance for a bullish trade.

4. Meta Platforms – Meta’s recent headlines are about new AI features for Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp—and a continued push into virtual and mixed reality. Bullish traders want to see growing user engagement and ad revenue, while risks loom if ad budgets shrink or AI investments don’t pay off quickly enough. Any update on Threads or VR headsets could jolt sentiment. If Meta surprises to the upside, fast-moving traders often ride post-earnings momentum, but risky bets if guidance is cautious.

5. UnitedHealth Group – UnitedHealth is a leader in healthcare, so its results can set the tone for the entire sector. Recent news has focused on insurance cost pressures, regulatory changes, and rising healthcare utilization (more people using their plans). If the company manages costs well and beats on enrollment growth, it’s bullish. If medical expense trends come in higher than expected, that could spook investors. Look for updates on new business lines and Medicare enrollments as extras that could move the stock.

6. Boeing – Boeing headlines have been wild lately: safety concerns, production halts, and big order delays. The bullish angle is that most of the bad news is already priced in, and any signs Boeing can fix its supply chain or ramp deliveries could send the stock flying. Bearish traders are waiting to see if new problems pop up or profitability lags. For investors, look for management’s tone on future orders and their progress in regaining customer trust.

7. PayPal – PayPal has struggled with competition from Apple Pay and fintech startups, plus slowing user growth. The bullish thesis is a bounce-back in active users and payment volume, or a surprise profit beat. Recent news includes new leadership and a push to cut costs—positive surprises there could drive the stock. But slow growth or shrinking margins are bearish signs. For traders, look for overreactions and use tight stop-losses if playing the bounce.

8. SoFi – SoFi’s story is all about member growth and becoming a “one-stop shop” for digital banking (loans, investing, checking). Bullish investors want big jumps in new accounts and evidence SoFi is not burning too much cash. Headwinds could appear if loan defaults tick up or if regulations squeeze digital banks. Recent news hints at new product launches and partnerships, which could fuel more upside if numbers impress.

9. Robinhood Markets – Robinhood rides the wave of meme stock activity, options trading, and young investor growth. If trading activity stays hot, HOOD could pop on earnings. But if trading slows or regulatory worries intensify, the bearish case grows stronger. Watch new customer accounts, crypto trading volume, and management commentary for cues. Volatility is high—see this as a trader’s playground, not a buy-and-hold for everyone.

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14) Important Economic Events:

1) CB Consumer Confidence – Tuesday

Why it matters: This tells us how everyday people feel about the economy. When confidence is high, folks spend more—on cars, vacations, homes. That spending keeps the economy growing.

What to watch: If confidence drops, it’s a red flag that people are pulling back. That can hit retail stocks, travel, and housing.

2) JOLTs Job Openings – Tuesday

Why it matters: This shows how many open jobs there are in the U.S. If job openings fall, it’s a sign that companies are slowing hiring—which can mean slower growth ahead.

What to watch: A big drop in job openings could shake the market. The Fed watches this closely to see if the job market is cooling.

Weak JOLTs data may push the Fed toward rate cuts—bullish for growth stocks.

3) Q2 2025 GDP Report – Wednesday

Why it matters: This is the big picture—it tells us if the U.S. economy is growing or shrinking. If GDP contracts again, we could officially be in a recession.

What to watch: Even 0% or slightly negative growth can trigger major moves. It changes Fed policy and shifts investor mood.

If GDP surprises to the upside, expect a rally in cyclicals (banks, industrials).

4) Federal Reserve Rate Decision – Wednesday

Why it matters: This is the biggest event of the week. The Fed controls interest rates, which affects everything from mortgages to credit cards to stock prices.

What to watch: If the Fed keeps rates high, it’s a signal they’re still fighting inflation. If they hint at cuts, expect the market to rally.

Listen closely to Powell’s tone. A hawkish (tough) stance hurts growth stocks. A dovish (easy) stance could ignite a rally in tech, crypto, and real estate.

5) June PCE Inflation – Thursday

Why it matters: This is the Fed’s favorite inflation measure. It shows how much prices are rising for things you actually buy.

What to watch: If inflation is falling, that opens the door to rate cuts. But if it's sticky, the Fed stays cautious.

6) July Jobs Report – Friday

Why it matters: Jobs are the heartbeat of the economy. Strong hiring = growth. But too much strength keeps inflation hot. Weak hiring = slowdown (or worse).

What to watch: If job gains drop below expectations, the Fed may ease off. If it’s too hot, they’ll keep rates higher for longer.

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