đ„ Warren Buffett is Selling Stocks, Recession Signals are Flashing Red, and the Job Market is Cracking.
WARNING: 1.8 Million Americans Can't Find Work, GDP Growth Slowing Down, and US Dollar at 4-Year Lows.
Everything you think you know about the economy is wrong.
The stock market is near all-time highs, but the job market is at recession levels. The Fed says inflation is cooling, but the dollar is at four-year lows. Tech companies are spending $700 billion on AI, but their stocks are crashing.
Welcome to the Great Contradiction of 2026.
This week, the data got too loud to ignore. GDP missed badly. The trade deficit hit $901 billion, one of the largest since 1960. Job openings collapsed to 6.5 million, the lowest since September 2020. And 1 in 4 unemployed Americans have been searching for work for over six months.
The uncomfortable truth? The jobs data is lyingâreal unemployment is much worse than reported.
The official numbers say 4.3% unemployment. The real story is in the 242 applications per job opening. Itâs in the 35% drop in entry-level postings. Itâs in the long-term unemployment that keeps rising three years after the pandemic âended.â
Most investors are looking at the wrong metrics. Theyâre watching the S&P 500 struggle to clear 7,000 while the labor market cracks beneath their feet. Theyâre debating AI valuations while the consumerâthe engine of 70% of GDPâruns out of fuel.
In this issue, we will connect the dots.
đŹ Hereâs whatâs in todayâs issue:
Part I - Markets:
1. Market Update & Analysis
2. Most Important Finance News Right Now
3. Chart of the Day
Part II - Investing:
4. Insider Trading
5. Top Stocks Right Now
6. Today's Trade
7. Fear & Greed Analysis
8. Technical Analysis
Part III - Actionable Advice to Build Wealth:
9. Important Points & Lessons to Remember
10. Final Thoughts & Advice
11. Questions from SubscribersA Message from 9fin:
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(1) Market Update & Analysis
đ Everything Important You Need to Know (in 60 seconds):
Warren Buffett sold 77% of Berkshireâs Amazon stake ($1.7 billion worth) and trimmed Apple by $2.7 billion in Q4 2025. He made a new bet on the New York Times.
GDP missed badly. The U.S. economy grew just 1.4% annually in Q4 2025, down sharply from 4.4% in Q3. A month-long government shutdown likely drained at least 2 points of growth. This is a serious warning sign heading into 2026.
The job market is quietly cracking. U.S. employers added just 181,000 total jobs in 2025, compared to 1.46 million in 2024. Job openings fell to 6.5 million in December, the lowest since September 2020. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers dropped to 0.87, now below 2001 recession levels.
The trade deficit hit historic levels. The U.S. trade deficit surged to $70.3 billion in December, up 33% from November. For full-year 2025, the deficit hit $901.5 billion, one of the largest on record since 1960.
The dollar is near four-year lows. Down 1.3% year-to-date and down 9% in all of 2025. A weaker dollar makes imports more expensive, which stokes inflation and keeps the Fed from cutting rates.
The housing market flipped to buyers. For the first time since 2019, 62% of homebuyers paid below asking price, averaging an 8% discount. There are now 47% more sellers than buyers nationwide.
Big companies donât stay on top forever. Only 4 of the top 10 S&P 500 companies from 2015 are still in the top 10 today. The top 10âs combined market cap exploded from $3.2 trillion in 2015 to $19.4 trillion in 2025. AI could reshuffle the deck again.
Amazon overtook Walmart as the largest U.S. company by revenue. Amazon reported $717 billion in 2025 sales vs. Walmartâs $713 billion. But strip out AWS (cloud computing), and Amazonâs retail revenue falls to $588 billion, well below Walmart.
The Supreme Court struck down Trumpâs global tariffs this week in a 6-3 ruling. Trump immediately announced a replacement 10% global tariff under a different legal authority.
Europe hit all-time highs. The U.S. didnât. Europeâs Stoxx 600 and the UKâs FTSE 100 both hit record highs this week while the S&P 500 struggles to clear 7,000. Bitcoin fell for a fourth straight week.
đĄ Andrewâs Analysis (how this impacts YOU):
Hereâs the thing most people miss.
When an economy slows down, it rarely announces itself loudly. It whispers first.
This week, the government confirmed that the U.S. economy grew just 1.4% annually in Q4 2025. A full percentage point below what economists expected. Down sharply from 4.4% the quarter before. And the job market? U.S. employers added just 181,000 total jobs in all of 2025. In 2024, they added 1.46 million. We basically went from a sprint to a crawl.
Thatâs the whisper. And right now, itâs getting louder.
Why this matters to your money:
When growth slows and jobs dry up, consumer spending follows. And consumer spending is about 70% of the U.S. economy. So the GDP slowdown isnât just a number in a government report. Itâs a preview of what happens to the companies in your portfolio when Americans start pulling back.
Now add the trade deficit. $901.5 billion for full-year 2025. One of the largest on record since 1960. Imports surged 3.6% in December. Pharmaceutical and gold imports were volatile. And demand for AI infrastructure sent computer imports up nearly $145 billion in 2025 alone. A huge trade deficit weakens the dollar over time. Weâre already seeing it. The dollar is at four-year lows, down 9% last year.
Hereâs the trap nobody talks about:
A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper for foreign buyers. That sounds good. But it also makes imports more expensive, which stokes inflation, which keeps the Fed from cutting rates, which keeps mortgage rates high, which slows the housing market, which hurts consumer wealth. Itâs a self-reinforcing loop.
Speaking of housing, the market is finally shifting toward buyers. 62% of homebuyers paid below asking price last year. Average discounts of 8%. The biggest markdowns since 2012. Buyers in markets like West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale are getting roughly 10% off. If youâve been waiting years for negotiating power, you have it now.
But hereâs a contrarian thought worth sitting with. Just because prices are softening doesnât mean right now is automatically the right time to buy. Builder sentiment fell to 36 in February. The median home still costs $419,000. If the economy weakens further, prices could have more room to fall. Donât rush. Negotiate hard. Ask for concessions on price, closing costs, and repairs.
Now for the big story of the week.
Amazon just overtook Walmart as the largest U.S. company by revenue. For decades, Walmart held that crown. Then Amazon quietly slipped past it with $717 billion in 2025 sales. But hereâs the twist almost everyone missed: Amazon didnât beat Walmart at retail. AWS, Amazonâs cloud business, is what pushed it over the top. Strip out AWS, and Walmart wins.
The lesson? In the modern economy, the company that controls the infrastructure wins. Not the one with the most stores. Not the one with the most products. The one that owns the rails everyone else runs on. Thatâs true in tech. Itâll be true in AI. Whoever builds the infrastructure layer wins.
And Buffett? When the man whoâs been investing longer than most of us have been alive starts selling his two biggest positions â $1.7 billion of Amazon and $2.7 billion of Apple in a single quarter â itâs worth asking why. Heâs not panic-selling. Heâs repositioning. After 15+ years in finance, Iâve learned that Buffett doesnât react to markets. He anticipates them. His moves are almost always early.
The Supreme Court striking down Trumpâs tariffs was the single biggest market news this week. Stocks moved higher on the news, but only modestly. Why? Because Trump immediately announced a replacement 10% global tariff. The uncertainty didnât go away. It just changed shape. And uncertainty is the enemy of markets.
While all of this plays out, Europe is quietly celebrating record highs. Investors are rotating into international markets where stocks trade at roughly a 40% discount to U.S. equivalents. That rotation is not a coincidence. Itâs a signal.
My Advice
The market is in a transition, not a crash. A shift. Hereâs what to do with that information:
Strengthen your defensive positions. Bonds, dividend stocks, utilities, and healthcare are outperforming. Thereâs a reason for that.
Consider global diversification. European and emerging market ETFs are seeing the strongest inflows since 2021. You donât have to go all-in. But 10-20% international exposure makes sense right now.
Donât chase the housing softness blindly. Negotiate hard on any offer. Ask for closing cost credits. Inspect everything. And donât overextend on mortgage debt in an uncertain economy.
Question your big tech thesis. The companies that were sure winners 12 months ago (Amazon, Microsoft) are facing real questions about AI spending returns. Make sure you own them for the right reasons.
Watch the job market closely. When ordinary Americans canât find work, spending slows, earnings disappoint, and markets follow. The labor data right now is the single most important economic signal to track.
The economy is sending mixed signals. But the trend, if you follow the data, is tilting toward caution.
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(2) Most Important Finance News Right Now
đŹ In todayâs issue we analyze:
1) 1 in 4 Unemployed Canât Find Work.
2) Don't Count on Rate Cuts Anytime Soon.
3) The Great AI Rotation Has Begun
4) The Supreme Court Struck Down Trumpâs Tariffs. Hereâs What It Means for You.
5) Smart Money Is Fleeing AI Stocks for Safe Treasuries.
1ïžâŁ 1 in 4 Unemployed Canât Find Work.
1 in 4 unemployed Americans, roughly 1.8 million people, have been job searching for six months or longer, meeting the Bureau of Labor Statisticsâ definition of âlong-term unemployed.â That share has been rising for three straight years, which is unusual because long-term unemployment typically drops after an economic recovery.
The math is brutal. U.S. employers added just 181,000 jobs in all of 2025. Businesses announced 108,435 layoffs in January alone. Job openings have been shrinking since the post-pandemic hiring boom of 2022, and as of December, there are roughly 1 million more people looking for work than there are available jobs.
For younger workers, itâs even harder. Entry-level job postings were down about 35% in mid-2025 compared to January 2023. The average job opening now receives 242 applications, three times the number in 2017. Companies are taking longer to hire, running more interview rounds, and generally being far more selective.
This is not a personal failure. Itâs structural. Businesses are pulling back because of high interest rates, tariff uncertainty, and a strategic shift toward AI investment over headcount.
What this means long-term and what to do:
Long-term unemployment carries a real financial cost. Research shows people who lose their jobs often land their next role earning 5% to 15% less than comparable workers who stayed employed. Over a 20-year career, that wage gap compounds into hundreds of thousands of dollars of lost income.
Stop playing the volume game. Sending 40 tailored applications a week and hearing nothing back isnât a strategy. Itâs a grind with diminishing returns. Hereâs what actually works in this market:
Direct outreach beats job boards. Find a specific person at a target company and reach out personally. Build something visible â a portfolio, a newsletter, a LinkedIn presence that shows your expertise. Network like your career depends on it, because right now, it does.
And if youâre currently employed, this is not the time to coast. Pad your emergency fund to 6 to 9 months of expenses, not the traditional 3 to 6. The job market could stay soft for a while. Protect your position. Make yourself indispensable. Document your wins. Your value isnât just what you do. Itâs what you can prove youâve done.
2ïžâŁ Donât Count on Rate Cuts Anytime Soon.
The Federal Reserve released minutes from its January 28 meeting, and the signal was clear. Most policymakers want to see more progress on inflation before cutting rates, a process they acknowledged could take months. The Fed held its benchmark short-term rate steady between 3.5% and 3.75% on a 10-2 vote.
Fed officials flagged that inflation progress âmight be slower and more uneven than generally expectedâ and that the risk of inflation running persistently hot âwas meaningful.â Several officials even signaled openness to raising rates if the data demanded it. Thatâs a stark contrast from the rate-cut expectations that dominated markets just a few months ago.
Markets are still pricing in roughly 60% odds of at least one cut by June and about 95% odds of at least one cut by year-end. Based on what the Fed is actually saying, those expectations may be too optimistic.
Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, the presidentâs nominee to lead the Fed, has pushed for more aggressive rate cuts, arguing that AI advances and deregulation allow the economy to grow faster without inflation. That puts him on a collision course with existing Fed policymakers who are in no hurry to move.
What this means long-term and what to do:
Higher rates for longer means mortgage rates stay elevated, car loans stay expensive, and credit card debt keeps compounding. This is a direct hit to consumer spending power.
For investors, a âhigher for longerâ rate environment tends to favor short-duration Treasury bonds, financial stocks, and defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples over high-growth tech. A 4% yield on a risk-free 10-year Treasury is genuinely attractive right now. Donât overlook it.
For anyone carrying high-interest debt, paying it down aggressively remains the single highest-return âinvestmentâ you can make. Eliminating a 22% interest credit card balance is the equivalent of a guaranteed 22% return. No stock in the S&P 500 reliably beats that.
3ïžâŁ The Great AI Rotation Has Begun
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr delivered a significant speech this week laying out three ways AI could reshape the labor market, and every investor, worker, and business owner needs to understand each one. His remarks highlight how seriously policymakers are now treating AI disruption as a real economic variable, not just a Silicon Valley story.
Scenario 1 - Gradual (Most Likely, Per Current Research)
AI spreads slowly but broadly. Unemployment rises a bit in the short term due to skill gaps, but workers retrain, new jobs emerge, and the economy adapts. Think of how the internet or personal computers rolled out. Disruptive, yes. Catastrophic, no.
What this means for your money: If this plays out, the AI selloff was an overreaction. Companies investing in AI come out ahead. Long-term investors who hold through the volatility get rewarded. Nvidia, data centers, and cloud infrastructure remain strong long-term bets.
Scenario 2 - Rapid Disruption (The Scary One)
AI capabilities swamp the economy faster than the labor market can adapt. Mass unemployment. AI-native startups displace legacy businesses. Consumer spending collapses. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned about exactly this scenario last year, and Barr echoed the concern in his speech.
What this means for your money: Defensive assets win. Bonds, gold, real assets, and dividend-paying stocks outperform. Your career resilience becomes your most valuable financial asset. Invest in skills that AI can complement, not replace.
Scenario 3 - Stalling Out
Power shortages, capital constraints, and computing bottlenecks slow AIâs progress before it reaches its theoretical potential. The technology becomes useful, even ubiquitous, but not the civilization-altering force the bulls are betting on.
What this means for your money: This is arguably the most underpriced risk in todayâs market. If the expected returns on nearly $700 billion in planned AI infrastructure spending donât materialize, the stocks most exposed to that spending face a painful reset. Think cloud hyperscalers, GPU makers, and AI infrastructure companies.
My honest take:
Nobody knows which scenario plays out. But right now, 35% of professional fund managers say companies are overspending on AI, and 54% of ordinary Americans agree. Thatâs a meaningful shift in public sentiment. The market has gone from rewarding AI capex announcements to punishing them. Microsoftâs stock is down nearly 9% since its last earnings call. Amazonâs stock just logged its worst nine-day stretch since 2006.
My advice: Donât bet everything on one AI outcome. Hold some AI-adjacent positions for the upside case. Hold some defensive assets for the downside case. And above everything else, invest in your own adaptability. No matter which scenario unfolds, workers who learn fast, think critically, and collaborate effectively with AI tools will have the most career and financial resilience.
4ïžâŁ The Supreme Court Struck Down Trumpâs Tariffs. Hereâs What It Means for You.
In the most significant legal blow to the Trump administrationâs economic agenda this week, the Supreme Court struck down many of President Trumpâs global tariffs in a 6-3 decision. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion, joined by three liberal justices plus two Trump appointees, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett.
The court held that Trump exceeded his legal authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs without Congressional approval. Roberts wrote clearly that IEEPA âdoes not authorize the president to impose tariffs,â and that âwhen Congress grants the power to impose tariffs, it does so clearly and with careful constraints. It did neither here.â
What was struck down:
The ruling invalidates âreciprocalâ tariffs on nearly every U.S. trading partner (ranging from 34% on China to a 10% baseline for everyone else) and a 25% tariff on some goods from Canada, China, and Mexico linked to fentanyl concerns. As of December, the government had collected roughly $130 billion in tariff revenue from those now-illegal levies. Businesses may be entitled to refunds, but the court offered no guidance on how that process works, leaving it to lower courts to sort out.
What wasnât struck down:
Steel and aluminum tariffs remain in place. And Trump responded almost immediately by announcing a replacement 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. He can also use Section 232 (national security) for tariffs with no rate cap and no time limit, and Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which allows 50% tariffs for five months on countries that âdiscriminateâ against U.S. commerce.
The bull case for markets:
Yale Budget Lab estimated the overall effective tariff rate drops to about 9.1% without the IEEPA tariffs, compared to roughly 17% with them in place. Fitch Ratings called it âLiberation Day 2.0â and noted that âmore than 60% of the 2025 tariffs effectively vanish.â Thatâs a meaningful reduction in costs for businesses and consumers. Importers, retailers, auto companies, and consumer goods firms all get relief.
The bear case:
Trump isnât backing down. Heâs pivoting to other legal tools with different constraints, but constraints he can work around. Future tariffs under Section 232 have no rate cap and no duration limit. The uncertainty hasnât disappeared. It just changed shape. And uncertainty is exactly what markets hate most.
Trade deals worth trillions of dollars, including agreements with China, the UK, and Japan, were partly anchored to IEEPA tariffs. How those agreements hold up under a new framework is genuinely unclear.
The refund situation is a mess. Penn Wharton economists estimate U.S. businesses could be owed up to $175 billion in refunds from the struck-down tariffs. Hundreds of businesses have already filed lawsuits. But the Supreme Court said nothing about how or when those refunds should happen. This litigation will likely drag on for years.
What to do with this information:
Short term, this is a modest positive for stocks, especially companies with complex import supply chains. But donât make major portfolio moves based on a single court ruling. The bigger picture is this: the era of tariff-as-blunt-weapon is constrained, not eliminated. Manage accordingly.
5ïžâŁ Smart Money Is Fleeing AI Stocks for Safe Treasuries.
U.S. Treasury yields moved lower, with the benchmark 10-year note testing the 4% level for the first time since late October. Investors are seeking safety in bonds amid AI uncertainty, a slowing economy, geopolitical tensions (Iranâs military exercises near the Strait of Hormuz are threatening nuclear talks in Geneva), and a U.S. stock market thatâs gone essentially nowhere in months.
This is notable. Just a few months ago, Treasuries were in the doghouse. The âsell Americaâ trade dominated headlines. Budget watchdogs warned U.S. national debt could hit $64 trillion within a decade. And yet, here we are, with Treasuries acting as a port of safety again.
So what changed?
When stocks stop going up, bonds start looking a lot better. The S&P 500 is essentially flat for 2026. The AI trade that drove markets for two-plus years is showing real cracks. A 4% yield on a risk-free government bond is genuinely attractive when equities are giving you nothing. Chinaâs markets are closed this week for Lunar New Year, removing a key source of global liquidity and making cautious investors even more cautious.
What this means long-term and what to do:
Historically, when investors move to Treasuries while stocks struggle, it signals the market is pricing in economic weakness ahead. This is not a crash signal by itself. But it is a caution signal.
If you have cash earning 2-3% in a savings account, youâre leaving money on the table. Short-duration Treasuries (3-12 month T-bills) or a Treasury ETF are paying close to 4-5% with near-zero risk right now. You get a real return while you wait for market clarity.
đĄ Andrewâs Analysis (what this all means):
Uncertainty is the only certainty.
The job market is cracking but not broken. The Fed is paralyzed by AI unknowns. The Supreme Court just rewrote trade policy rules. And investors are fleeing to safety after years of chasing growth at any price.
The common pattern? The âknown knownsâ are priced in. The âknown unknownsâ are whatâs moving markets. AIâs impact on jobs. The Fedâs reaction function. Trade policy stability. These are the variables that will determine whether 2026 is a buying opportunity or a bear market.
Stop predicting. Start positioning. Own assets that work in multiple scenarios. Keep cash for the scenarios you canât yet see.
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(3) Chart of the Day
The Job Market Just Hit a Recession-Level Warning Signal
đĄ Andrewâs Analysis (why this chart is important):
Look at the chart. Really look at it.
This chart tracks âJob Openings per Unemployed Workerâ from 2000 to December 2025, and what itâs showing right now should be getting more attention than it is.
In December, there were just 0.87 job openings for every unemployed worker in the U.S. That means for every 100 people actively looking for work, there are only 87 available jobs. And that number is still falling.
Hereâs the historical context that makes this alarming. During the depths of the dot-com recession in 2001-2002, this ratio bottomed at 0.33. During the worst of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, it crashed to 0.15. Weâre nowhere near those extremes, thankfully.
But hereâs the part that deserves a closer look: weâre already below the level seen during the 2001 recession itself, which peaked around 0.90. And weâre well below the pre-pandemic ânormalâ of roughly 1.24. For reference, the post-pandemic peak hit 2.01 in early 2022, the hottest job market on record.
The collapse since then has been dramatic. Since March 2022, over 5.6 million job vacancies have vanished. In just the last two months, openings fell by 907,000, the biggest two-month drop since March 2023. In December alone, openings dropped 386,000 to 6.5 million, the lowest reading since September 2020. The number is now below levels seen in 2018 and 2019 during the pre-pandemic expansion.
This is not a blip. This is a trend.
Why this chart matters to investors:
The job market is a lagging indicator, meaning it slows after the broader economy softens. When this ratio drops below 1.0 and keeps falling, it typically signals businesses have already pulled back on growth plans. That leads to weaker consumer spending. Weaker consumer spending leads to weaker corporate earnings. Weaker earnings lead to stock market pressure.
Weâre not at âpanicâ levels. But the direction of travel is clear, and itâs consistent with every other weak economic data point that hit this week, including the GDP miss, the trade deficit, and the long-term unemployment numbers.
Why this chart matters to you personally:
If youâre currently employed, this is not the time to coast. Update your resume now. Strengthen your professional network before you need it. Make yourself indispensable at your current job. The people who get blindsided in a soft job market are always the ones who assumed their position was secure.
If youâre looking for work, know that the data is working against you right now. Itâs not personal. The system itself is strained. Focus on direct outreach, building visible work, and making it easy for employers to say yes. Donât rely on the black hole of online applications when 242 people are submitting to the same job you are.
The investing angle:
Historically, when job openings fall this sharply, the Fed responds by cutting rates. But this time, the Fed has an inflation problem keeping it on hold. That tug-of-war between a weakening labor market and sticky inflation is exactly the environment where defensive assets tend to outperform aggressive growth bets. Bonds, dividend stocks, utilities, and healthcare all deserve a harder look right now.
The chart is sending a clear message. The only question is whether youâre paying attention.
A Message from 9fin:
What if you had a research analyst watching thousands of companies 24/7?
Thatâs what 9fin does.
9fin gives you institutional-grade credit intelligence in real-time. Its AI monitors 4,000+ companies and alerts you to what actually moves markets:
Distressed opportunities with the context to act on them
Covenant breaches the moment they happen
Refinancing risks before they become headlines
Institutional intelligence. Now available to you.
(4) Insider Trading from Billionaires, Politicians, and CEOs:
When people with deep knowledge, such as politicians who set policy, executives who run the company, or legendary investors, put their own money on the line, pay attention.
1. Representative Gil Cisneros (D-CA)
Representative Gil Cisneros (D-CA) filed three precious metals purchases on February 16, all traded in late January.
Franco-Nevada Corp $FNV: $15,000â$50,000 purchased January 26, filed 17 days later. A gold-focused royalty and streaming company with a $50B market cap.
Wheaton Precious Metals $WPM: $15,000â$50,000 purchased January 26, filed 17 days later. A precious metals streaming company with exposure to gold and silver.
General Electric $GE: $15,000â$50,000 purchased January 8, filed 35 days later. The aerospace and energy conglomerate now focused on jet engines and power generation.
Cisneros sits on the House Armed Services Committee. He has insight into defense spending, geopolitical risk, and industrial policy. His simultaneous purchase of gold royalties and GEâa major defense contractorâsuggests heâs positioning for either geopolitical escalation (Middle East, China-Taiwan) or dollar weakness, or both.
The timing is telling. He bought gold exposure in late January, just as the dollar was breaking down and trade tensions were escalating. He bought GE before the Supreme Court tariff ruling that could impact industrial supply chains.
The pattern. Politicians often trade on regulatory edge. Cisneros isnât buying tech. Heâs buying hard assets and defense. That tells you what people with inside visibility on federal policy are thinking about risk.
2. American Assets Trust $AAT
American Assets Trust $AAT saw Executive Chairman Ernest Rady purchase $3,007,686 on February 17, adding 159,866 shares at $18.81. Filed February 19.
This San Diego-based REIT owns office, retail, and residential properties in Hawaii, California, and Oregon. The purchase is notable because REITs have been crushed by higher rates. Rady is betting that either rates peak soon, or his properties are undervalued relative to private market transactions. With the 10-year Treasury retreating to 4%, the rate pressure on REITs may be easing.
3. KKR & Co. $KKR
KKR & Co. $KKR saw two Co-CEOs buying heavily this week. Joseph Bae purchased $12,773,530 worth of shares on February 17, adding 125,000 shares at $102.19. Scott Nuttall matched him with $12,833,087 in purchases the same day, also at $102.67. Filed February 18.
KKR is a global investment firm managing private equity, credit, and real estate assets. The stock has held up relatively well during the tech selloff, benefiting from the rotation into alternative assets and private credit. When the guys who know every deal in the pipeline are buying their own stock with eight-figure checks, it signals confidence that the fee environment remains strong despite market volatility.
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(5) Top Stocks Right Now
1. Infleqtion $INFQ - up +13% on Monday 2/17
2. Wingstop $WING - up +11% on Tuesday 2/18
3. Figma ($FGM) up +7% on 2/19 1) Infleqtion $INFQ up +13% on Monday 2/17
Infleqtion $INFQ gained +13% on its NYSE debut after completing a SPAC merger that valued the quantum computing firm at $1.8 billion before new investment. Infleqtion builds commercial quantum computing hardware and software focused on sensing, timing, and computation applications for enterprise and government clients. Quantum computing remains genuinely early-stage, but it represents the next potential computing revolution after AI. The companyâs strong debut reflects growing investor appetite for âpicks and shovelsâ bets on future computing infrastructure. After 15+ years in finance, Iâve found that the best long-term returns often come from identifying the infrastructure layer before it becomes mainstream
2) Wingstop ($WING) up +11% on 2/18
Chicken wings are recession-proof. Despite missing revenue forecasts, their earnings topped estimates. Investors love this stock because it has incredible margins and a loyal customer base. It's the ultimate "comfort food" stock.
3) Figma ($FGM) up +7% on 2/19
The design software darling reported a 40% revenue surge. As AI tools integrate into design, Figma is positioning itself as an essential tool, not just a nice-to-have. This is a strong growth signal for SaaS (Software as a Service).
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(6) Todayâs Trade
The options market is where the smartest traders place their biggest bets. I monitor options flow activity daily.
1. AXT Inc. $AXTI
AXT Inc. $AXTI is a materials science company that manufactures compound semiconductor substrates, the foundational materials used in 5G wireless infrastructure, fiber optic networks, AI data centers, LEDs, and solar cells. Think of $AXTI as a supplier to the suppliers. Itâs a âpicks and shovelsâ play on the broader semiconductor and tech ecosystem. The stock recently jumped to $28.48 per share (up $4.67 in a single session), partly driven by a Q4 earnings report released after the close, in which the company posted a smaller-than-expected loss and better-than-expected Q1 guidance.
The Options Activity
Traders are showing unusually strong bullish interest in $AXTI, with roughly a 7-to-1 calls-over-puts ratio, a heavily lopsided reading that signals options traders are leaning decisively bullish on the stock. The primary driver of that ratio is a large block trade on the March 20th $40.00 call, where a buyer purchased a block of 1,080 contracts at $2.00 per contract. Prior open interest on this contract was just 161, meaning this block primarily represents fresh, new positioning rather than existing contracts being closed. The buyer is opening a new, aggressive bullish bet from scratch.
Breaking Down the Trade
Hereâs what this bet is actually saying in plain numbers. The stock trades at $28.48. The call strike is $40.00. For the stock to reach the strike price, it needs to rise about 40% from its current level. For the trade to be profitable by expiration on March 20, $AXTI would need to close above $42.00 (the $40 strike plus the $2 premium paid). Thatâs roughly a 47% move in under 4 weeks.
The 1,080 contracts represent control over 108,000 shares. At $2.00 per contract, the total premium spent was approximately $216,000. That is the maximum loss on this trade if the stock closes below $40 on March 20, which, statistically speaking, is the most likely outcome for a far-out-of-the-money call.
This is a high-risk, high-reward speculative bet. Someone either expects a major catalyst (an acquisition rumor, a large partnership announcement, or continued earnings momentum) that could send the stock dramatically higher in a short window, or theyâre placing a lottery-ticket-style bet with a clearly defined maximum loss.
The Call-to-Put Ratio of 7-to-1 is worth noting on its own. When calls outnumber puts by this kind of margin, it typically reflects short-term bullish speculation from traders who are already positioned or looking to position ahead of a potential move. That said, high call skew alone doesnât guarantee a stock will rise. It simply tells you which way options traders are betting.
Context and Catalysts
$AXTIâs earnings beat gives this trade a real fundamental foundation. The companyâs compound semiconductor substrates are increasingly in demand as AI data center build-outs require more specialized chips and advanced materials. 5G infrastructure continues to expand globally. Solar energy investment is growing. These are genuine secular tailwinds for a company that supplies materials few competitors can replicate at scale.
My Analysis
I am Bullish on this trade. Here is why: When you see a 7:1 Call-to-Put ratio, it means sentiment is overwhelmingly positive. Someone is betting big money that this stock is going to break out above $40 by March. With the AI boom requiring more advanced materials, AXTI is in the right place at the right time. This looks like "smart money" positioning for a breakout.
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(7) Fear & Greed Analysis
How do you cut through the noise and understand whatâs really happening? The secret is to look at the feelings people, the actions of investors, and the facts about the economy.
The latest Fear & Greed Index closed at 43, putting us firmly in âFearâ territory. This is a neutral-to-positive signal for a long-term investor, and hereâs why.
Weâre down from 46 a month ago and up slightly from 38 last week. The market is skittish. Itâs worried about the AI spending pullback, the tariff chaos, and the weakening economic data we discussed.
Why This Is Actually Good News: A reading of 43 is positive for someone with cash on the sidelines. Itâs not âExtreme Fearâ (below 25), which often signals a panic bottom. But itâs far from the âExtreme Greedâ (above 75) that precedes a top. This level of mild fear means the market is skeptical. Itâs questioning the rally. And a skeptical market is a healthy market. Itâs much safer to invest when everyone is nervous than when everyone is bragging about their crypto gains at a dinner party.
The Significance: This âFearâ reading confirms the vibe shift. The easy money from simply buying the Nasdaq has been made. The market is now in a phase where it needs to be convinced. This aligns perfectly with our âMarket of Stocksâ thesis. In a âFearâ environment, investors are more discerning. They reward companies with real profits (like Wingstop) and punish those with only promises (like some of the AI hype stocks). This environment favors active stock pickers over passive indexers.
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(8) Technical Analysis
Technical levels matter because theyâre where millions of traders have programmed their buy and sell orders. When key levels break, algorithms kick in and magnify moves.
1) S&P 500 SPY 0.00%â
Positive trend. The S&P 500 is in a rising trend channel short-term, with investors buying at progressively higher prices. The index has marginally broken above resistance at 6,900. An established break suggests further upside to 7,000+.
2) Tech Stocks QQQ 0.00%â
Neutral short-term. The Nasdaq-100 is in a horizontal trend channel, indicating indecision. It gave a negative signal by breaking below support at 25,149, suggesting potential decline to 24,081. However, it has marginally broken above resistance at 25,000.
The conflict. Tech is caught between AI spending fears and valuation support. The index canât decide if itâs cheap enough to buy or expensive enough to sell. This âholdâ rating reflects that ambiguity.
3) Bitcoin $BTC
Negative trend. Bitcoin has broken the ceiling of its falling trend, which sounds positive. But the interpretation is âslower initial falling rateâânot reversal. The cryptocurrency sits between support at $66,700 and resistance at $70,600.
The warning signs. Negative volume balance shows distributionâsellers more aggressive than buyers. However, RSI shows positive divergence, suggesting potential for a bounce.
The macro context. Bitcoin has fallen four straight weeks. Correlation with tech stocks remains high. If the Nasdaq breaks down, Bitcoin likely follows to $60,000 or lower.
4) What This All Means
The S&P 500 is pushing higher but facing a wall of resistance at 7,000. The Nasdaq is stuck in neutral, weighed down by AI spending uncertainty and mega-cap tech rotation. And Bitcoin is in a downtrend, reflecting a broader pullback from speculative risk assets.
All three confirm what the Fear & Greed Index is showing at 43. Weâre in a cautious, risk-off environment. Not a crash. Not extreme panic. But a market where investors are rotating from aggressive growth positions into safer, more defensive assets.
The most important divergence is between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 (which includes financials, healthcare, energy, and industrials) is in a positive short-term trend. The Nasdaq (dominated by mega-cap tech) is neutral and struggling. That divergence tells you exactly where the marketâs conviction is and where it isnât.
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(9) Important Points & Lessons to Remember:
The job market is flashing a genuine warning signal. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers just dropped to 0.87, below the levels seen during the 2001 recession. This matters because consumer spending is 70% of GDP. When people canât find work, they stop spending. When spending stops, corporate earnings fall. When earnings fall, stock prices follow.
Advice: If youâre employed, make yourself indispensable. Update your resume now. Strengthen your network before you need it. If youâre investing, favor defensive sectors (utilities, healthcare, consumer staples) that hold up better when spending slows.
The dollar is at four-year lows and still falling. Down 9% last year. Down another 1.3% year-to-date. A weak dollar makes imports more expensive, which stokes inflation and keeps the Fed from cutting rates. That means mortgage rates stay high, car loans stay expensive, and credit card debt keeps compounding.
Advice: Consider adding international exposure to your portfolio. European and emerging market stocks are seeing record inflows for a reason. Also, review your high-interest debt and pay it down aggressively. Eliminating a 22% credit card balance is the equivalent of a guaranteed 22% return.
The AI trade is rotating, not ending. For two years, any company mentioning AI saw its stock go up. Now, 35% of fund managers say companies are overspending on AI, and the market is punishing big capex announcements. Microsoft is down 9% since its last earnings. Amazon just logged its worst nine-day stretch since 2006.
Advice: Donât abandon AI entirely, but get selective. Own the infrastructure layer (Nvidia, data centers, cloud providers) for the long term. Trim positions in companies with no clear path to profitability. And keep some cash ready for when the rotation settles.
Long-term unemployment is now structural, not cyclical. 1.8 million Americans have been job searching for over six months. Entry-level postings are down 35% from 2023. The average job opening gets 242 applications, three times the 2017 average.
Advice: If youâre job searching, stop playing the volume game. Direct outreach beats job boards. Build something visible (a portfolio, a LinkedIn presence, a newsletter). Network like your career depends on it, because right now, it does.
The housing market has finally flipped to buyers. For the first time since 2019, 62% of homebuyers paid below asking price. Average discounts are 8%. In Florida markets, discounts hit 10%.
Advice: If youâve been waiting years to buy, you have negotiating power now. But donât rush. Builder sentiment is falling. The median home still costs $419,000. If the economy weakens further, prices could have more room to fall. Negotiate hard. Ask for closing cost credits. Inspect everything.
Warren Buffett is repositioning, not panic-selling. Berkshire sold 77% of its Amazon stake ($1.7 billion) and trimmed Apple by $2.7 billion in Q4. He also made a new bet on the New York Times.
Advice: Buffett doesnât react to markets. He anticipates them. His moves are early signals, not late reactions. Follow his logic, not his trades. Ask yourself: what does he see in traditional media (NYT) that others are missing? Why reduce exposure to tech giants that still dominate their industries?
The Fed is in no hurry to cut rates. Minutes from the January meeting show most policymakers want to see more inflation progress before cutting. Some even signaled openness to raising rates if the data demands it. Markets are pricing in 60% odds of a cut by June. Based on what the Fed is actually saying, those odds may be too optimistic.
Advice: Higher for longer means 4% Treasury yields are genuinely attractive. Short-duration bonds, T-bills, and Treasury ETFs are paying real returns with near-zero risk. Donât overlook them.
Technical levels confirm the rotation. The S&P 500 is in a positive short-term trend. The Nasdaq is neutral and stuck in a range. Bitcoin is in a downtrend, down four straight weeks.
Advice: This divergence tells you exactly where the marketâs conviction is and where it isnât. Follow the technicals. Favor the broad market over pure tech. Avoid speculative assets until momentum returns.
The Supreme Court just rewrote trade policy. The 6-3 ruling striking down Trumpâs global tariffs removes about $130 billion in annual duties and could trigger up to $175 billion in refunds to businesses. Stocks moved higher on the news. But Trump immediately announced replacement tariffs under different legal authority.
Advice: This is a short-term positive for companies with complex import supply chains (retailers, auto companies, consumer goods). But donât make major portfolio moves based on one ruling. The uncertainty hasnât disappeared. It just changed shape.
Europe is quietly celebrating record highs. The Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 both hit all-time highs this week while the S&P 500 struggles at 7,000. European stocks trade at roughly a 40% discount to US equivalents.
Advice: Geographic diversification matters more than it has in years. You donât need to go all-in on international. But 10-20% exposure through ETFs makes sense right now.
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(10) Final Thoughts & Advice:
I want you to remember four numbers.
1.4%. U.S. GDP growth in Q4. Slowing fast.
181,000. Total jobs added in all of 2025. The weakest hiring year since the pandemic.
$901 billion. The annual U.S. trade deficit. A generational high.
0.87. Job openings per unemployed worker. Below 2001 recession levels.
History has a pattern. Every major economic shift, the dot-com bust, the 2008 crisis, the pandemic crash, looked terrifying in real time. And every single one of them, in hindsight, was one of the greatest wealth-building opportunities in modern history.
But only for the people who were prepared.
Right now, the data is whispering. The GDP miss. The job market weakening. The trade deficit. The dollar slide. These arenât crash signals. Not yet. Theyâre caution signals. And caution signals, if you act on them early enough, are gifts.
Warren Buffett built the greatest investment track record in history not because he had better information than everyone else. He had the same data. He just read it differently. He stayed calm when others panicked. He got greedy when others were fearful. He acted when most people froze.
The economy is slowing. Thatâs not a prediction anymore. Itâs data. And in my experience, the people who act on clear data, early, are the ones who look back years later and call it one of the best financial decisions they ever made.
Donât be the person who saw it coming and did nothing.
Be the second type.
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(11) Questions from Subscribers
Welcome to our Q&A, where I answer the questions you send me!
Q: How do I protect my career in a soft job market?
Three moves matter most right now. First, make yourself indispensable at your current job. Document your results. Build relationships across departments. Be the person they cannot afford to lose. Second, update your resume and LinkedIn now, not when you need them. The best time to network is when youâre employed and not desperate. Third, build something visible. A portfolio, a newsletter, a LinkedIn presence, anything that proves your expertise beyond your job title. In a market where 242 people apply to the same job, the ones who get hired are the ones employers already know.
Q: What if Iâm wrong and the AI boom keeps going?
Then you still win. The framework I recommendâdiversification, quality cash flows, international exposureâworks in bull markets too. You might underperform the Nasdaq by a few percentage points in a raging AI rally. But you wonât get destroyed if the AI spending doesnât pay off. Remember: 35% of fund managers say companies are overspending on AI. 54% of Americans agree. The consensus is shifting. Donât be the last one holding the bag.
Q: Should I move money into international stocks?
Geographic diversification makes sense right now. European and emerging market stocks are seeing record inflows. The Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 just hit all-time highs while the S&P 500 struggles. European stocks trade at roughly a 40% discount to US equivalents. You donât need to go all-in. But 10-20% international exposure through ETFs is a reasonable hedge against US-specific slowdown.
đLast Words:
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