đĽ Stagflation Is Back. GDP Cut in Half. US Debt hit $38.9 Trillion. Oil Above $100. Here's What to Do.
GDP crashed to 0.7%, oil topped $100, America's debt spiral hit $38.9 trillion, and recession odds jumped to 25%. Here's What It Means for You.
$2,000,000,000,000.
Thatâs how much market value has disappeared in the past month alone.
And Oil topped $100. GDP growth got revised down to 0.7%. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 20. Extreme fear.
Markets do not crash because of one headline. They crack when several weak spots collide at once.
That is what is happening now.
But what if the biggest risk right now is not the market drop?
What if the bigger risk is that most people still do not understand why the market is dropping?
The real story is not just that stocks fell and $2 trillion of market cap that vanished. The real story is that the economy grew at half the pace we thought, inflation is still running hot, and America is borrowing at a pace that should scare anyone who cares about rates, debt, or the future of the dollar.
Most people think this is just another bad week. It may be the start of a much harder decade.
Slowing growth. Rising inflation. A war disrupting energy and food supplies. The consumer is tapped out. The government is drowning in debt. Geopolitics are a mess. And markets gripped by the worst fear reading in over a year.
This isnât a fun moment. But it is a defining one.
In my 20 years in finance, I've learned one lesson above all others: the moments that feel the most dangerous are usually when the most wealth gets created.
Here's the paradox that will define this decade. The more fragile the world appears, the more opportunity exists for those who see clearly.
Thereâs a famous experiment from the 1970s. Psychologists gave participants a simple choice:
Option A: Get $50 for sure.
Option B: Flip a coin. Heads you get $100. Tails you get $0.
Most people chose Option A. The certain $50.
Then they changed the question:
Option A: Lose $50 for sure.
Option B: Flip a coin. Heads you lose $0. Tails you lose $100.
Suddenly, most people chose Option B. Theyâd rather gamble than accept a certain loss.
This is called loss aversion. We feel the pain of loss about twice as intensely as we feel the pleasure of gain. And right now, with markets down, oil spiking, and scary headlines everywhere, we all feel it.
In this issue, weâll break down exactly why stocks are falling, growth is slowing, stagflation is rising, and debt keeps building. This issue explains what matters most and what to do next.
đŹ In todayâs issue:
Part I - Markets:
1. Markets & Economy Update
2. Important Finance News
3. Chart of the DayPart II - Investing:
4. Insider Trades
5. Top Stocks Right Now
6. Todayâs Trade
7. Fear & Greed Analysis
8. Technical AnalysisPart III - Actionable Advice:
9. Important Advice & Recommendations
10. Final Thought
11. Questions from Subscribers
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(1) Market & Economy Update
đ Everything Important You Need to Know (in 60 seconds):
The S&P 500 fell ~1.5% for the week, the Dow dropped 2%, and the Nasdaq declined ~1.3%. Third straight week of losses, the longest losing streak in over a year. About $2 trillion in US market value has been wiped out in the past month.
Q4 2025 GDP was revised down from 1.4% to just 0.7%. The economy grew at half the speed we thought.
Core PCE inflation rose to 3.1% year-over-year in January, its highest reading since 2024, moving further from the Fedâs 2% target.
Consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level of 2026. Americans are nervous and pulling back.
The Iran war has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly 20% of the worldâs oil supply.
Brent crude spiked to nearly $120/barrel before settling near $100-$103. It was $72 before the war started.
US gas prices jumped from $2.98 to $3.48/gallon in a single week. Goldman Sachs warns $5/gallon is possible if the crisis drags on.
Goldman Sachs raised its US recession probability to 25%, up 5 percentage points.
Americaâs cattle herd is at its smallest since the 1950s. Beef is up ~15% year-over-year with no meaningful relief expected until at least 2028.
A record 6% of US workers tapped their 401(k) early last year. Household financial stress is growing.
Americans are leaving the US in record numbers. Net migration turned negative for the first time since 1935.
đĄ Andrewâs Analysis & Advice:
Most people are scared right now. And honestly? That makes sense.
When I was at Goldman, we learned something most investors never hear: the moments that feel the most dangerous are often the most important for building long-term wealth. More on that in a moment.
First, letâs break down whatâs really happening.
Oil is the circulatory system of the global economy.
About 20% of the worldâs oil supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz, a passage just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Iran is now using it as a weapon.
This isnât just about your gas tank. Oil flows into fertilizer, food, airline tickets, packaging, utilities, and manufacturing costs. When you choke the oil supply, you raise the cost of nearly everything. Goldman Sachs now sees US inflation hitting 2.9% in their base case. In a worse scenario, oil averages $110, and inflation hits 3.3%.
Oxford Economics modeled a $140/barrel scenario and found it would push the eurozone, UK, and Japan into recession, with the US facing an economic standstill. This disruption is now estimated to be roughly twice the scale of the 1956 Suez Crisis, which was the previous benchmark for supply shocks. And unlike the Russia-Ukraine shock of 2022, thereâs no geographic workaround when the Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint.
The Fed is trapped.
Hereâs the part that should concern you most.
The Fed normally cuts rates to help a slow economy and raises rates to fight inflation. Right now it needs to do both, and it canât.
Core PCE is at 3.1% and climbing. GDP growth just got revised down to 0.7%. Consumer spending is barely budging. The personal saving rate jumped to 4.5%, meaning Americans are hoarding cash rather than spending. Goldman raised recession odds to 25%.
Rate cuts risk making inflation worse. Rate hikes risk pushing a weakening economy off a cliff. Thatâs the trap.
And this touches your life directly. If the Fed holds rates higher for longer, your mortgage rate, car loan, and credit card bills all stay elevated. Rate cut expectations just got pushed from June to September at the earliest.
The food shock is coming, and most people donât see it yet.
Hereâs what most financial media isnât covering enough. The Strait of Hormuz isnât just an oil chokepoint. About 35% of global seaborne urea fertilizer exports pass through it. Urea is what farmers use to grow food.
Qatar shut its Ras Laffan facility after a drone strike. Fertilizer prices jumped from ~$130 to $575-$650 per tonne almost overnight. And farmers across the Northern Hemisphere are entering peak fertilizer season right now. The timing couldnât be worse.
Food expert Raj Patel warns bread prices could rise within 6-10 weeks. Eggs and pork follow months later. This comes on top of an existing crisis: Americaâs cattle herd is at its smallest since the early 1950s, with beef already up ~15% year-over-year. Your grocery bill was already heading higher before a single shot was fired.
AI is adding a new layer of uncertainty.
This month, a 7,000-word essay about AIâs potential to cause a 38% stock market crash went viral with 20 million views in a day. Then Block (formerly Square) announced it was cutting 40% of its workforce due to AI. The backlash was immediate and fierce.
Fortune 500 CEOs now rank AI as their #1 industry risk, per a Conference Board survey. Thatâs the first time AI has topped the list since the survey started asking about it in 2024.
Nvidia posted strong earnings. Hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta plan to spend roughly $650 billion on AI infrastructure this year. The money is flowing. But so is the anxiety.
Nobody fully knows where AIâs economic impact lands. Will it boost productivity and create new jobs? Or will it cut workers faster than the economy can absorb? Most likely both, at different speeds. That uncertainty itself is a market risk.
What should you actually do right now?
Donât make reactive decisions. The Fear & Greed Index is at 20, which is extreme fear territory. In my two decades in finance, extreme fear has been closer to a buying opportunity than a selling one. Thatâs not a guarantee. But history has a strong bias.
Oil shocks end. Every single one in modern history has ended. The 1973 embargo ended. The 1980 spike ended. The 2022 energy crisis ended. This one will too. The question is how much damage it does before it does.
Watch the Strategic Petroleum Reserve release. The coordinated global release of 400 million barrels amounts to roughly 1.2 million barrels per day, far less than the ~12 million barrel daily loss from a full Hormuz shutdown. But the psychological signal can stabilize prices even when the math doesnât fully work. Think of it as the energy equivalent of Mario Draghiâs âwhatever it takesâ moment during the European debt crisis.
Start thinking about your inflation exposure. If you have no exposure to energy stocks, real assets, or inflation-protected securities, now is a good time to evaluate that.
Final thought: This is a messy, complicated moment with real risks. But messy, complicated moments are exactly when discipline and long-term thinking separate the investors who build wealth from those who destroy it.
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(2) Important Finance News
đŹ In this issue we analyze:
1) The One Question Every Investor Should Ask Right Now
2) Stagflation is Back: What the 1970s Teach Us
3) America's Debt Spiral: $50 Billion Per Week
đ¤ But first, how worried are you about a recession in 2026?
1ď¸âŁ The One Question Every Investor Should Ask Right Now
Many people are sitting on cash right now, watching the markets fall, and waiting for things to âcalm downâ before they invest.
Itâs understandable. But it might be the most expensive financial mistake you make this year.
Hereâs the contrarian truth most investors donât want to hear: the moments that feel the most dangerous are usually when the most wealth gets made.
Think about March 2020. COVID was shutting the entire world down. The S&P 500 dropped 34% in weeks. Every headline was terrifying. The people who invested in March 2020 and held saw their money roughly double within two years.
Or 2009. The Great Recession. Anyone who put money into the market at the bottom and held for a decade made extraordinary gains. In my years on Wall St., the most successful investors I knew all had one habit in common: they did the opposite of what fear was telling them. Not recklessly. But with a plan and discipline.
Fear is not a signal to stop investing. Fear is often a signal that prices are becoming more attractive.
Research from Vanguard shows that lump-sum investing beats dollar-cost averaging about two-thirds of the time. Morgan Stanley found it yielded a 0.42% higher annual return over 12 months. Every month you wait, in a historically normal market, the odds shift against you.
My advice, step by step:
Build your 3-6 month emergency fund first. Donât invest money you might need in the next year.
Max out your tax-advantaged accounts. Your 401(k) is the single most powerful wealth-building tool available to most Americans. The 2026 contribution limit is $24,000 ($31,000 if youâre over 50). If your employer matches contributions, thatâs an instant 50-100% return on part of your money before the market even moves. No stock can beat that.
After your 401(k), open a Roth IRA if you qualify. Your money grows tax-free for decades. On a 30-year timeline, the tax savings alone can be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Once tax-advantaged accounts are maxed, move to a simple taxable brokerage. Low-cost index funds. A broad S&P 500 ETF has returned roughly 10% annually over long periods, through wars, recessions, and oil shocks alike.
Automate it. Set a fixed dollar amount to invest every paycheck. It removes emotion from the equation. You buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when theyâre high. It works because itâs boring. And boring is what builds wealth.
The cost of waiting is real.
Inflation is running at 3.1% right now. Every dollar sitting in a regular savings account is losing purchasing power every single day. The Fear & Greed Index is at 20, extreme fear territory. Over the past 30 years, every time the index has been this low, the market has been higher on average 12 months later.
Thatâs not a guarantee. But sitting in cash waiting for a âbetterâ moment has a real cost. You pay for it in lost time, lost compounding, and lost purchasing power.
Final thought: The best time to start was 10 years ago. The second best time is today.
2ď¸âŁ Stagflation is Back: What the 1970s Teach Us
Oil is above $100. Unemployment is rising. And Wall Street is whispering a word it hasnât used in decades.
Stagflation.
Let me explain this simply.
Stagflation is when the economy slows down while inflation stays high at the same time. Itâs the economic equivalent of having a fever and hypothermia at once. The normal cures donât work because the treatment for one problem makes the other worse.
To fight slow growth, central banks cut interest rates. But cutting rates in a high-inflation environment makes prices rise even faster. Itâs an impossible trap. And right now, the US is walking straight into it.
This week, Q4 GDP was revised down to just 0.7% growth. Core PCE inflation rose to 3.1%, well above the Fedâs 2% target. Consumer sentiment hit its lowest point of 2026. And oil topped $100/barrel. Thatâs the stagflation recipe.
At least six separate Wall Street analyst notes flagged âstagflationaryâ concerns this week. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called it âexactly the kind of stagflationary environment thatâs as uncomfortable as any that faces a central bank.â
Is this the 1970s redux?
No. But hereâs why the comparison still matters.
In the 1970s, oil shocks led to higher wages, which led to more spending, which led to more inflation. A self-reinforcing wage-price spiral that lasted over a decade. Workers had far more bargaining power back then. Thatâs not the case today.
Also, the US is now a net oil exporter. That provides some cushion.
But hereâs the key difference between now and every other recent supply shock: this one is potentially larger than the Russia-Ukraine energy shock of 2022. The Strait of Hormuz disruption doesnât just affect oil. It affects natural gas, fertilizer, aluminum, steel, and shipping. The scale is estimated at roughly twice the 1956 Suez Crisis.
And weâve been hit with rolling supply shocks for five straight years now. COVID. Ukraine. Now Iran. Each one has kept inflation higher for longer than expected. The Fed has been fighting a war on multiple fronts, and their room to maneuver is shrinking.
What stagflation means for you:
Stocks tend to struggle. Slow growth means weaker earnings. High inflation means higher costs and less consumer spending.
Bonds donât provide the usual safe haven either. Rising inflation erodes bond returns in real terms.
Real assets tend to outperform. Commodities, energy stocks, real estate with fixed-rate mortgages locked in, gold, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).
Energy stocks benefit from high oil prices. Chevron $CVX, Exxon $XOM, and Occidental $OXY were all up this week as crude climbed. If you have no energy exposure in your portfolio, thatâs worth examining.
Watch the Fed closely.
Futures markets now price a 57% chance the Fed holds rates unchanged at its June meeting. A month ago, 75% of traders expected a rate cut by June. That shift has real consequences for your mortgage, car loan, and credit card bills.
If inflation re-accelerates in April and May, which is likely as oil and food prices hit the data, rate cuts could get pushed well into late 2026 or even 2027. Energy, real assets, and inflation protection arenât nice-to-haves right now. For many investors, are become necessities.
3ď¸âŁ Americaâs Debt Spiral: $50 Billion Per Week
Hereâs a number that should stop you.
In just the first five months of fiscal year 2026, the US government added $1 trillion to the national debt. The Congressional Budget Office reported last week that in February 2026 alone, the government borrowed $308 billion. In those five months, the Treasury paid $433 billion just in interest on existing debt. Not paying down debt. Not investing. Just interest.
The national debt is now approaching $38.9 trillion.
Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget put it plainly: âThis cannot be sustainable.â She projects interest payments will exceed $1 trillion this year and surpass $2 trillion annually by 2036.
Let that sink in. By 2036, the US could be spending more on interest payments than on the entire military budget and Medicare combined. For interest alone.
Whatâs driving this?
Spending is the main culprit. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid together rose $104 billion in just five months. Defense and Veterans Affairs spending also increased. Revenue did grow, with tariff collections more than quadrupling year-over-year and individual income taxes rising. But spending is growing faster than revenues can match.
Why this matters for you:
Most people miss this connection. The more the government borrows, the higher interest rates tend to stay. When the Treasury issues more debt, it has to offer higher yields to attract buyers. Higher Treasury yields act like gravity on all other interest rates. Your mortgage. Your car loan. Your student loan. Your business line of credit. They all move with Treasuries.
The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.12%, up from 3.96% before the Iran attack. Bond markets are pricing in inflation risk, not the flight to safety youâd normally expect in a geopolitical crisis. Thatâs telling.
The war is making this worse.
Wars are expensive. Energy-driven inflation automatically pushes up costs for government programs tied to cost-of-living adjustments. If the Fed holds rates higher for longer to fight inflation, the governmentâs own interest costs rise even faster. Itâs a self-reinforcing spiral.
My advice
Think carefully before taking on new long-term variable-rate debt. If youâre refinancing, lock in fixed rates now.
Build exposure to TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) or I-Bonds. Theyâre designed for this exact environment.
Donât be surprised if rates stay elevated longer than Wall Street forecasts. Build that assumption into every major financial decision you make this year.
The most important personal finance lesson here is simple: reduce debt, build savings, and lower your fixed monthly expenses. In a high-rate, high-inflation environment, financial flexibility isnât just smart. Itâs survival.
đĄ Andrewâs Analysis & Advice:
See the pattern here? We have a consumer who is tapped out (saving more, spending less). We have a government that is borrowing at a reckless pace. And we have a geopolitical shock (the war) that is making everything more expensive. This isn't just a bad week; this is the setup for a challenging decade. The solution isn't to hide in cash. It's to own assets that produce things the world can't live without: energy, food, and essential technology.
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(3) Chart of the Day
The Job Market Looks Worse Each Month
đĄ Andrewâs Analysis & Advice:
The green bars show what the Bureau of Labor Statistics initially reported for monthly job creation. The gold bars show what the actual number turned out to be after revisions. And those black arrows? Every single one points down.
US job numbers have been revised downward in 24 out of the last 25 months. In the last 13 months alone, the total downward revision is a staggering 710,000 jobs. Thatâs roughly 55,000 phantom jobs per month that the government initially counted and then quietly took back.
The most recent data is jarring. Decemberâs jobs number was revised down 65,000, turning what looked like modest growth into an actual loss of 17,000 jobs. Thatâs the 5th contraction in the last 9 months. January was revised down another 4,000. Look at September-October 2025 on the chart. Those massive negative gold bars stand out sharply. The economy was shedding jobs in that period, even as the initial headlines said otherwise.
Why does this keep happening?
The BLS uses whatâs called the âbirth-death modelâ to estimate jobs from new businesses not yet formally counted. In a strong economy, that model tends to be accurate. In a slowing economy with widespread business closures, it consistently overestimates job creation. Thatâs exactly what weâre seeing.
Why should you care?
The Federal Reserve makes interest rate decisions based on this data. When the Fed sees strong job numbers, it holds off on rate cuts. When it later learns those numbers were inflated, the damage from that delayed action is already done. Policy was set on a foundation of inaccurate data.
Markets move on jobs reports too. Portfolios shift. Treasury yields move. All based on numbers that keep getting revised lower.
This connects directly to the stagflation story. If the labor market is genuinely softer than the headlines show, consumers have less spending power than anyone thought. The economic slowdown may be further along than most are willing to admit publicly.
The take:
The US labor market is weaker than official data shows. Every time you read a headline about jobs, apply a mental discount of ~55,000. The real number is almost certainly lower than whatever gets reported first.
A softer labor market combined with rising inflation is exactly the combination that could tip this economy into recession faster than most forecasts expect. Defensive positioning, inflation protection, and a focus on quality assets matter more right now than chasing high-risk growth.
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(4) Insider Trades from Billionaires, Politicians, and CEOs:
When people with deep knowledge, such as politicians who set policy, executives who run the company, or legendary investors, put their own money on the line, pay attention.
1. CSX Corp $CSX
President and CEO Stephen F. Angel purchased $1,006,750 worth of shares at $40.27 on March 6th. CSX Corporation $CSX is one of North America's largest freight railroad companies, moving coal, chemicals, agricultural products, and automotive parts across 23 US states and Canada.
With oil above $100/barrel, rail becomes a more attractive option over trucking, which is more fuel-intensive per ton-mile. CSX operates 21,000 miles of rail in the eastern U.S. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, domestic energy transport is critical. Railroads move 70% of U.S. coal and growing volumes of crude oil. Angel is betting that energy security = rail demand.
2. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing $TSM
Democratic Representative Gil Cisneros (California) filed a purchase on March 10th for $100,000â$250,000 worth of shares at $355.41.
Cisneros sits on the House Armed Services Committee, giving him unique insight into defense semiconductor demand and geopolitical risk in the Taiwan Strait. As a member of Congress, Cisneros has access to defense and technology policy discussions that could directly shape US chipmaking incentives and Taiwan security policy. TSM sits at the center of the US-China technology rivalry, and any shift in CHIPS Act funding or geopolitical posture around Taiwan could move this stock significantly.
TSM is the world's most advanced chip manufacturer, currently building a $65 billion Arizona facility. With AI demand exploding and the CHIPS Act funneling billions to domestic production, this trade suggests confidence that TSM will navigate U.S.-China tensions successfully.
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(5) Top Stocks Right Now
1) Nebius Group $NBIS - Up +16% on Tuesday 3/11
Nebius $NBIS surged +16% after Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in the AI cloud infrastructure company, along with plans to collaborate on AI infrastructure and deployment.
Nebius is a former subsidiary of Yandex (Russiaâs Google) that has repositioned itself as a European AI cloud provider since separating from its Russian parent following the Ukraine war. A $2 billion investment from Nvidia is about as strong an endorsement as a company can receive in the AI infrastructure space. It signals that Nebius has the infrastructure, talent, and roadmap to be a meaningful player in the race to build out AI compute capacity. With hyperscalers spending roughly $650 billion on AI infrastructure this year, Nebius is positioned to capture European demand that US cloud giants canât always serve as efficiently.
2) NIO Inc. $NIO - Up +15% on Monday 3/10
NIO $NIO surged +15% after the Chinese electric vehicle maker reported a surprise fourth-quarter profit and issued strong guidance for Q1 2026.
NIO has been burning cash for years while scaling its premium EV lineup and expanding its battery swap station network. The surprise profit signals that the business may be hitting an inflection point. China is the worldâs largest EV market, and competition is fierce, with BYD, Li Auto, and dozens of other brands battling for share. NIOâs premium positioning and unique battery-as-a-service model give it a differentiated edge. The stock had been down significantly from its highs, making the surprise profit hit that much harder for short sellers who had bet against the company.
3) Sable Offshore Corp. $SOC - Up +15% on Tuesday 3/11
Sable Offshore $SOC surged +15% after reports that President Trump plans to invoke the Defense Production Act to allow Sable to restart oil drilling off the California coast.
With Brent crude above $100/barrel and the US working to boost domestic supply after the Hormuz disruption, Sableâs Santa Barbara Channel platform has become a national security asset overnight. California regulators had blocked the project for years over environmental concerns. A federal override through the Defense Production Act would sidestep state-level obstacles and give Sable a clear path to restart operations. The timing is near-perfect: high oil prices, strong political will for domestic production, and a direct federal lifeline. Sable is one of the rare direct beneficiaries of the same oil shock dragging markets lower everywhere else.
4) Firefly Aerospace $FLY - Up +13% on Thursday 3/12
Firefly Aerospace $FLY gained +13% following the successful launch of its Alpha Flight 7 rocket. Firefly is one of the leading small satellite launch companies in the commercial space market, competing alongside Rocket Lab and SpaceXâs Falcon 9 for payload contracts. Each successful launch matters enormously for emerging launch companies because reliability is the single most important factor customers consider when booking a payload. Alpha Flight 7âs success adds to Fireflyâs growing track record and strengthens its case for winning more commercial and defense launch contracts. The company has partnerships with NASA and various defense agencies. As the commercial space economy continues to expand, a consistent launch record positions Firefly as a serious alternative to the marketâs dominant players.
5) Serve Robotics $SERV - Up +10% on Tuesday 3/11
Serve Robotics $SERV advanced +10% after reporting stronger-than-expected results and issuing upbeat 2026 sales guidance.
Serve Robotics builds autonomous sidewalk delivery robots currently deployed in Los Angeles and other markets through a partnership with Uber Eats. The company sits at the intersection of two powerful trends: AI-powered automation and last-mile delivery logistics. Stronger-than-expected results for a company this early in its growth story signals that the unit economics of autonomous delivery are improving and that customer adoption is picking up. With labor costs rising and worker shortages persisting, autonomous delivery is making a stronger financial case with every passing quarter.
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(6) Todayâs Trade
The options market is where the smartest traders place their biggest bets. I monitor options flow activity daily.
1. Global-E Online $GLBE
The call-to-put ratio here is approximately 1,000-to-1.
Global-E Online $GLBE is an e-commerce enablement platform that helps global brands sell across international markets, handling currency conversion, duties, customs compliance, and localization in over 200 countries. Itâs the behind-the-scenes infrastructure layer for cross-border e-commerce, working with Shopify merchants and major retailers who want to sell globally without managing each market from scratch.
This week, call volume surged to 4,059 contracts, roughly 300 times the average daily volume and about 1,000 times the put volume.
Specifically, traders bought 4,058 contracts of the March 20, 2026 expiration, 35.00 strike calls for $1.05 each when the bid/ask was $0.50 x $1.05. Paying the ask on a block order of this size is an aggressive move. It means the buyer was willing to pay full price to get positioned fast. There were only 1,798 contracts of prior open interest, so this almost certainly represents new positioning. For these calls to break even by next Fridayâs expiration, GLBE needs to rally from ~$34.52 to about $36.05, roughly a 4-5% move in a single week.
My take: Bullish. Paying the ask on 4,000+ short-dated call contracts tells me someone has high conviction that a near-term catalyst is coming. Whether itâs a partnership announcement, earnings beat, or a broader e-commerce recovery play, someone with deep pockets believes this stock is about to move. GLBE sits at the crossroads of global e-commerce expansion and cross-border commerce infrastructure, two trends with strong long-term tailwinds. The risk is the tight one-week timeframe. If no catalyst materializes by next Friday, these options expire worthless. But the size and urgency of the trade suggest the buyer isnât guessing.
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(7) Fear & Greed Analysis
How do you cut through the noise and understand whatâs really happening? The secret is to look at the feelings people, the actions of investors, and the facts about the economy.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index closed at 20, firmly in âExtreme Fearâ territory. Down from 21 the previous close, 25 one week ago, and 37 just one month ago.
To put that in perspective: the index was at 15 one year ago. Weâre approaching last yearâs extreme low, and the full economic impact of the oil shock and food price surge hasnât even hit the data yet.
What is this index telling us?
Think of the Fear & Greed Index as a market mood ring. It tracks seven signals including market momentum, volatility, options activity, and safe haven demand to produce a single number from 0 (maximum fear) to 100 (maximum greed). When everyone is greedy, assets tend to be overpriced. When everyone is fearful, assets tend to be underpriced.
The reading at 20 tells us two things.
First, investors are pricing in real risk. This isnât irrational panic. The Iran war, stagflation fears, the GDP revision to 0.7%, the record job revisions, and the AI anxiety wave are all legitimate concerns. The market is doing what it should: pricing in uncertainty.
Second, and this is what most people miss: extreme fear is historically where the best long-term buying opportunities appear. Warren Buffett didnât get rich buying when everyone was optimistic. The index is flashing his favorite signal right now.
How does the macro environment connect to this reading?
The oil shock from the Iran war is the primary driver pushing fear higher. Rising energy prices mean higher inflation, which means less chance of Fed rate cuts, which means higher borrowing costs for longer. Thatâs a three-step punch to stock valuations.
The AI-driven job cut anxiety (Block cutting 40% of its workforce) and the viral crash scenario essay added psychological fuel to the fire. Market psychology amplifies fundamentals in both directions. Right now, itâs amplifying fear.
The key question for investors:
Is this fear level pricing in the worst-case scenario or the base case?
If oil stabilizes around $100-$110 and the Hormuz situation resolves within weeks rather than months, the market is likely pricing in more pain than will actually materialize. In that case, todayâs prices could look cheap 12-18 months from now.
If oil spikes to $140 and stays there, Oxford Economics sees a global recession. In that case, the fear is justified and more downside lies ahead.
My advice:
Donât make decisions based purely on this index. But do use it as a guide. When it sits at 20 and you have cash you donât need in the next 1-2 years, history strongly suggests deploying it systematically rather than hoarding it.
Emotional decisions made in extreme fear are almost always wrong in hindsight. The Fear & Greed Index is one of the clearest reminders of that timeless truth.
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(8) Technical Analysis
Technical levels matter because theyâre where millions of traders have programmed their buy and sell orders. When key levels break, algorithms kick in and magnify moves.
1) S&P 500 SPY 0.00%â
Negative. The S&P 500 broke down through its falling trend channel in the short term and triggered a negative double-top signal below 6797. The chart points to 6620 or lower, with resistance near 6720.
That lines up with the macro story. Oil is up, stagflation fears are up, and the market has lost confidence that rate cuts will come fast. When price breaks support in that kind of backdrop, technical damage matters more because it confirms what the headlines are already saying.
The short-term message is simple. Momentum is down, RSI is weak, and buyers have not shown up with force yet.
2) Tech Stocks QQQ 0.00%â
Negative. The Nasdaq-100 is stuck in a short-term sideways range, but it also triggered a negative head-and-shoulders breakdown below 24736, with downside pointing toward 24126 or lower. Resistance sits near 24660.
That may sound odd because the Nasdaq still has strong AI names in it. But that is the point. Even with AI capex support, the index is feeling the weight of higher rates, slower growth fears, and risk-off sentiment.
The market is saying AI is not enough, by itself, to overpower oil shock and macro stress right now.
3) Bitcoin $BTC
Positive. Bitcoin is still in a rising short-term trend channel, with support near 66700 and resistance near 89000. Volume balance is positive, and the RSI setup hints at room for another move higher.
That stands out.
While stocks are flashing fear, Bitcoin is holding a stronger short-term technical posture. That can mean a few things. It can mean risk appetite has not died everywhere. It can mean liquidity hopes are still alive. Or it can mean Bitcoin is being treated as its own trade rather than a clean read on stocks.
Either way, the contrast matters. Crypto looks stronger than equity indexes in the short run.
4) What This Means for You
Stocks are breaking down with no support in sight. Bitcoin is holding up in a rising channel. This divergence is significant.
What does this mean? Investors are fleeing traditional stocks but finding refuge in alternative assets like Bitcoin. Thatâs not a vote of confidence in the economyâitâs a hedge against monetary policy and fiscal instability.
The technicals suggest continued weakness in stocks for the near term. But if youâre looking for a bright spot, Bitcoinâs resilience points to continued appetite for non-correlated assets. That could matter more as the year unfolds.
The wisest move in this environment is also the most boring one: stay invested according to your long-term plan, don't make emotional decisions based on short-term breakdowns, and treat weakness as a potential opportunity to add to quality positions at better prices. The investors who build the most wealth aren't the ones who predicted every correction. They're the ones who stayed in their seat when everyone else ran for the exits.
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(9) Important Advice & Recommendations:
Extreme fear is historically a buying signal, not a selling one. The Fear & Greed Index is at 20. Every time it has been this low over the past 30 years, the market has been higher on average 12 months later. Fear clouds judgment. Discipline builds wealth.
Oil is the backbone of the global economy. When oil prices spike, everything gets more expensive: food, transport, utilities, manufacturing. The Hormuz crisis isn't just about gas prices. It's a supply shock that touches nearly every product you buy.
Your grocery bill is about to get more expensive, and it's not just beef. Fertilizer prices surged from $130 to $575-$650 per tonne after the Qatar facility shutdown. That hits crop yields, which hits food prices, which hits your wallet within weeks. Prepare now.
In a stagflation environment, real assets outperform. Stocks and bonds both tend to struggle. Energy stocks, commodities, real estate with a fixed-rate mortgage, gold, and TIPS are your best defenses. If your portfolio has none of these, that's the first thing to fix.
The economy is weaker than the headlines show. Job numbers have been revised down in 24 out of the last 25 months. That's 710,000 phantom jobs. The GDP revision from 1.4% to 0.7% tells you the economy was already slowing before the oil shock hit. Apply a mental discount to headline economic numbers.
Automating your investing removes the most dangerous variable: your emotions. Setting a fixed amount to invest every paycheck means you buy more shares when prices fall and fewer when they rise. It's boring. It works. Boring is how wealth gets built.
Your 401(k) match is free money. If youâre not maxing employer matches before worrying about market timing, youâre leaving 50-100% returns on the table.
Every oil shock in modern history has ended. The 1973 embargo. The 1980 spike. The 2022 energy crisis. They all ended. This one will too. The investors who act with a long-term lens during short-term crises are the ones who come out ahead.
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(10) Final Thought:
The world feels chaotic right now. War, inflation, and debt dominate every headline. Do not let the noise paralyze you. You have control over your financial future. Build your emergency fund. Max out your retirement accounts. Buy hard assets that survive inflation. Do the opposite of the crowd.
In 2008, fear felt endless. In 2020, fear felt rational. In both cases, the people who stayed calm and kept buying quality assets were rewarded.
This moment feels different on the surface, but the lesson is the same.
Own quality. Keep cash. Cut weak debt. Buy when others freeze. Think in years, not headlines.
Hereâs what I want you to do after you close this email.
First, check your emergency fund. Make sure you have 3-6 months of expenses saved. Donât invest money you might need in the next year.
Second, look at your tax-advantaged accounts. Max out your 401(k) if you havenât already. The 2026 limit is $24,000. If your employer matches, thatâs instant returns before the market even moves.
Third, automate. Set up automatic investments every paycheck. Buy the dip when others are selling. Let boring consistency do the heavy lifting.
Finally, remember this. The market has survived wars, recessions, pandemics, and oil shocks. It will survive this too. The investors who build wealth arenât the ones who predicted every crash. Theyâre the ones who stayed in their seat when everyone else ran for the exits.
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(11) Questions from Subscribers
Welcome to our Q&A, where I answer the questions you send me!
Q: What is stagflation, and why does it matter?
Stagflation is when the economy slows down while inflation stays high at the same time. Itâs dangerous because the normal tools donât work. Central banks usually cut rates to boost growth, but cutting rates makes inflation worse. Right now, GDP growth was revised to just 0.7%, while core PCE inflation sits at 3.1%. That combination directly means higher prices for goods, higher borrowing costs for you, and weaker job security. Itâs the economic equivalent of a fever and hypothermia at once.
Q: How does US debt affect my personal finances?
More directly than most people think. When the US government borrows more, it has to offer higher yields on Treasury bonds to attract buyers. Those higher yields act like gravity, pulling up every other interest rate. Your mortgage, car loan, student loan, and credit card rates all move with Treasuries. With the US borrowing $50 billion per week and interest payments approaching $1 trillion this year, rates are unlikely to fall fast. Build your financial decisions around the assumption that borrowing costs stay higher for longer.
Q: How does the Iran war affect my grocery bill?
More than most people realize. The Strait of Hormuz isnât just an oil chokepoint. About 35% of global urea fertilizer exports pass through it. After Qatarâs Ras Laffan facility was hit, fertilizer prices jumped from $130 to over $600 per tonne. Farmers entering peak planting season without affordable fertilizer means lower crop yields, which means higher food prices in 6-10 weeks. This stacks on top of an existing cattle shortage (the herd is at its smallest since the 1950s), keeping beef prices elevated through at least 2028.
Q: How bad can this oil shock get?
A: It depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. Goldman Sachs models show two scenarios. Base case: oil averages $98 in March-April then declines, pushing inflation to 2.9% and GDP to 2.2%. Worse case: oil averages $110 for a month if the strait stays closed, pushing inflation to 3.3% and GDP to 2.1%. Oxford Economics modeled a $140 scenario that would push Europe and Japan into recession and create an economic standstill in the US. The answer: the shock can get very bad if the disruption persists, but it will likely moderate if the situation resolves.
Q: Are we definitely going into a recession?
A: The odds have increased but itâs not certain. Goldman Sachs raised recession odds to 25%, up 5 percentage points. The combination of slow growth (0.7% GDP), high inflation (3.1% PCE), and an oil shock is dangerous. However, the US economy has proven resilient multiple times. Consumer spending remains modest but intact. The job market, while weaker than reported, hasnât collapsed. A recession is more likely than three months ago but not inevitable. The smart position: defensive but not catastrophic.
Q: Why do US job numbers keep getting revised lower?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses a model called the âbirth-death modelâ to estimate jobs from new businesses. It works well when the economy is healthy. But in a slowing economy with widespread business closures, it consistently overestimates job creation. In the last 13 months, reported job numbers were revised down by a total of 710,000, roughly 55,000 phantom jobs per month. This matters because the Fed makes interest rate decisions based on this data. Policy set on inflated numbers means the economy may be weaker than the Fed realizes, and rate cuts could come too late.
Q: Should I be worried about AI taking my job?
Yes and no. Hereâs the honest answer.
CEOs now rank AI as their #1 industry risk. Block just cut 40% of staff citing AI. The anxiety is real.
But history shows new tech creates jobs while destroying others. The automobile destroyed horse-and-buggy jobs but created millions in manufacturing, travel, and logistics.
The real risk isnât AI itself. Itâs being in a role that AI can easily replace without upgrading your skills. The most AI-resistant jobs involve: complex human interaction, creative problem-solving, physical presence, and tasks where mistakes are expensive.
What to do now: Look at your current role. Ask: âCould an AI do 80% of this within 5 years?â If yes, start building adjacent skills. The best hedge against automation is continuous learning.
đLast Words:
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Most people hear âextreme fearâ and think opportunity.
Sometimes it is.
But fear only becomes a buying edge when price has fallen further than the earnings power.
If inflation stays hot and growth stays weak, the market is not mispricing emotion.
It is repricing the environment.
In an environment such as we have now, I'm curious how analysts distinguish job cuts being caused by AI from those being caused by an approaching recession. And my how companies like to hide their job cuts with euphemisms and scapegoats.