💥 Venezuelan Oil, the Fall of the Dollar, and the AI Boom

The Truth About Venezuela, the AI Boom, and the Fall of the Dollar

Jan 08, 2026

👋 Good afternoon my friend, hope you’re having a wonderful week! And thanks for joining 108,000 subscribers who trust this newsletter to get smarter with money, investing, and the economy. My goal is simple: Make it easy for you to connect the dots on the economy, markets, and investing (in 15 minutes or less!)

📬 In today's issue:

Part I - Markets & Economy:
1. Market Update & Analysis
2. Important Finance News 
3. Chart of the Day

Part II - Investing & Stocks:
4. Top Performing Stocks
5. Today's Trade
6. Fear & Greed Analysis
7. Technical Analysis

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(1) Market Update & Analysis

📈 Everything You Need to Know (in 60 seconds):

U.S. Venezuela Operation

Early Saturday, the U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who now faces charges in New York. President Trump says America will “run” Venezuela during the transition and that U.S. companies will rebuild the country’s oil infrastructure.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves (300+ billion barrels worth $18-45 trillion depending on oil prices). That’s equal to the combined value of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla.
Venezuelan stocks jumped 17%, energy stocks rallied hard (Chevron +5.1%, Valero +9.2%, Halliburton +7.8%), and defense contractors surged globally.

Market Momentum

The Dow hit an all-time high above 49,000 on Monday, posting its best start to a year since 2003. The S&P 500 also closed at record highs.
The January effect is playing out—smaller companies and tech stocks are rallying to start the year. The Russell 2000 is up 3.2% year-to-date.
We’re three years without a Santa Claus rally (the traditional year-end bounce), but the market gained double digits in two of those years anyway.

AI Chip Darlings Shift

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced next-gen Vera Rubin chips at CES and highlighted massive demand for AI storage.
Memory stocks exploded: Sandisk +27%, Western Digital +16%, Seagate +14%, Micron +10%. Sandisk is up 1,080% from its April low and 855% since spinning off—making it the S&P 500’s best performer for 2025 and 2026 combined.

Commodities Surge

Gold hit near-record levels (up 3% to $4,434/oz), silver jumped 8% to $76/oz amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Copper broke $6 per pound for the first time ever, up 6% this year already and 42% in 2025. Demand from AI data centers, EVs, and renewables is driving the rally.

Housing & Policy

Trump announced plans to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. Invitation Homes and Blackstone both dropped 6%.
The housing market had its worst year in three decades in 2025, but spring could surprise if Trump’s promised housing reforms deliver.

Global Markets

Europe’s Stoxx 600, UK’s FTSE 100, emerging markets, and global stocks all hit fresh all-time highs despite geopolitical uncertainty.

💡 Andrew’s Analysis:

Venezuela Changes Everything

When I worked on Wall Street, we always watched for supply shocks that could reshape entire markets. This Venezuela move is exactly that. The U.S. just secured access to oil reserves worth potentially $45 trillion at peak prices—that’s more than the entire GDP of the U.S. and China combined. Let that sink in.

The initial market reaction was calm, and there’s historical precedent for this. UBS data shows the S&P 500 only fell 0.3% on average following the last 11 major geopolitical events, then gained 7.7% over the next year. Investors have learned to look past the headlines and focus on the economics.

And the economics here are massive. If the U.S. successfully brings even a fraction of Venezuela’s oil production online, you’re looking at lower energy costs, falling inflation, Fed rate cuts, and expanding profit margins across nearly every sector. Oil isn’t just fuel for your car—it’s embedded in plastics, pharmaceuticals, construction materials, fertilizers, and thousands of products you use daily. Cheaper oil means cheaper everything.

The timing couldn’t be better. AI data centers are sucking up electricity at unprecedented rates. Energy Secretary Chris Wright mentioned needing 35GW of generation capacity just to bridge the gap until renewables scale up. Venezuelan oil provides exactly the energy security America needs to maintain its AI advantage without grid constraints becoming a bottleneck.

The Storage Play Nobody Saw

This week proved that in a gold rush, sometimes the real money isn’t in the gold—it’s in the picks, shovels, and wheelbarrows. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang made one comment about AI storage demand at CES, and storage stocks went vertical.

Sandisk jumping 27% in a single day. Western Digital up 16%. These aren’t small companies moving on hype—these are established players responding to a fundamental shift in how AI infrastructure works. Huang said it directly: “This is a market that never existed, and this market will likely be the largest storage market in the world.”

Here’s the catch. Memory markets are notoriously cyclical. They swing from feast to famine based on supply and demand imbalances. During my decade in finance, I watched memory companies boom and bust more times than I can count. The current surge is real, but it’s being fueled partly by retail traders piling in. When everyone’s bullish on the same trade, that’s usually your signal to take profits or at least size your position appropriately.

The January Effect Is Real

Markets love patterns, and the January effect is one of the most famous. Small caps and beaten-down names tend to outperform in January due to year-end tax-loss selling and fresh money flowing into riskier assets. We’re seeing it play out right now with the Russell 2000 up 3.2%.

But here’s what most people miss: January returns don’t reliably predict full-year performance. Bank of America data shows recent decades haven’t followed the classic pattern as consistently. The best takeaway? January is a month, not a forecast.

What matters more is whether the underlying fundamentals support continued gains. Right now, you’ve got falling inflation expectations, strong corporate earnings, AI infrastructure build-outs, and potential energy cost relief. That’s a much stronger bull case than any calendar superstition.

Copper Tells the Real Story

If you want to know where the economy is heading, watch copper. It’s used in everything from EV batteries to data center wiring to power grid upgrades. When copper hits record highs like it did this week ($6.01/lb), that’s not speculation—that’s real demand colliding with limited supply.

The copper rally reflects three converging forces: mine disruptions reducing supply, Trump tariff concerns prompting stockpiling, and AI infrastructure creating massive new demand. A deadly mudslide at the world’s second-largest copper mine only tightened supply further.

This matters for your portfolio because copper’s rise signals sustained economic expansion and technological transformation. It also means higher input costs for manufacturers, which could squeeze margins if they can’t pass prices through. Companies with pricing power will win. Companies without it will struggle.

Gold’s Message About Trust

Gold jumping nearly 3% to $4,434/oz tells you something important: investors are hedging against geopolitical risk and dollar instability. Central banks globally have been diversifying away from the dollar for years, and the Venezuela operation reinforces concerns about U.S. unilateralism.

The dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen to 40%—the lowest this century. That’s a slow-motion crisis with enormous implications. If the world loses confidence in dollar dominance, U.S. borrowing costs rise, deficits become more expensive, and American assets lose their safe-haven premium.

Gold, silver, and copper all surged this week because smart money is positioning for a world where the dollar’s monopoly is ending. You don’t need to go all-in on precious metals, but having 5-10% exposure makes sense as insurance.

The Housing Wildcard

Trump’s announcement about banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes caught everyone off guard. Invitation Homes and Blackstone dropping 6% shows the market takes this seriously.

Here’s the reality: housing affordability is a political landmine heading into midterms. If Trump delivers on this plus his promised housing reforms, you could see a spring buying season that surprises everyone. Mortgage rates above 6% have frozen the market, but lower rates combined with increased supply could unlock pent-up demand quickly.

Watch the homebuilders. If Lennar, DR Horton, and KB Home start rallying on actual policy details, that’s your signal that housing could be a sleeper winner in 2026.

How This All Connects

Here’s the bigger picture: We’re witnessing a fundamental restructuring of global power and economic flows.

Venezuela gives the U.S. energy security and pricing leverage. Storage stocks reveal AI’s infrastructure demands are real and growing. Copper’s rally shows the physical build-out of the AI economy. Gold’s surge reflects declining trust in traditional power structures. And housing policy shows the administration is willing to take bold action on affordability.

These aren’t isolated stories—they’re all part of the same transformation. Energy abundance enables technological growth. Technological growth creates storage and material demand. That demand drives commodity prices. Higher commodity prices and geopolitical shifts drive safe-haven buying. And all of it happens against a backdrop of shifting monetary and fiscal policy.

As I mentioned when I spoke about energy dynamics a few weeks ago, supply-side shocks can reshape inflation expectations faster than any Fed action. If you listened then, you were positioned for exactly what’s playing out now.

The market is three years into double-digit gains. Valuations are extended. But if Venezuela’s oil comes online, inflation keeps falling, and the Fed cuts rates, you could see another leg up that surprises the skeptics. Just remember: bull markets don’t die of old age. They die when something breaks. Keep watching credit markets, corporate earnings, and whether AI spending actually translates into productivity gains.

My advice:

Here’s what to do with this information:

1. Storage Plays: If you own Sandisk or Western Digital after this rally, consider taking some profits. Memory cycles are real. Don’t let paper gains evaporate.

2. Commodity Hedges: 5-15% allocation to gold, silver, or copper miners makes sense as portfolio insurance. Use ETFs like GLD, SLV, or COPX for easy exposure.

3. Dollar Diversification: With reserve status declining, consider international equity exposure through developed market ETFs (VEA, EFA) or selective emerging market positions.

The key is position sizing. Don’t bet the farm on any single theme. Diversify across these trends so you capture upside while protecting against surprises. In my 15 years working in markets, I’ve learned the winners are those who stay disciplined when everyone else is getting greedy or fearful.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!

(2) Important Finance News

In this issue we analyze:

(1) How Trump's Venezuela Move Could Reshape The U.S. Economy

(2) What The Market Needs From The AI Trade This Year

(3) Big IPOs Are Coming in 2026

(4) Banks Bet On Crypto

(5) Robot Euphoria Is Taking CES by Storm

🤔 But first, how are you feeling about the markets?

1️⃣ How Trump’s Venezuela Move Could Reshape The U.S. Economy

The U.S. military operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend represents far more than a geopolitical power play. It’s a calculated bet on energy dominance, dollar strength, and technological supremacy that could reshape American economic prospects for the next decade.

At today's prices, **Venezuela**'s 303 billion barrel crude oil reserves are worth around $17 trillion.

Here’s what most people are missing: Venezuela’s proven oil reserves carry a notional value of $18 trillion at $60/barrel, rising to $45 trillion at peak oil prices near $150. That’s not a typo. At the upper range, you’re talking about 150% of annual U.S. GDP or 40% of global GDP sitting underground in one country. For comparison, the combined market cap of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla—the Magnificent Seven—equals roughly $18-20 trillion. One geopolitical move just unlocked access to an asset base comparable to the seven most valuable companies on Earth.

The immediate market reaction was measured, and rightfully so. UBS data shows the S&P 500 typically falls just 0.3% following major geopolitical events, then gains 7.7% over the next year. Investors have learned to look past headlines and focus on fundamentals.

And the fundamentals here are extraordinary. If U.S. companies successfully restore Venezuelan oil production—even partially—you’re looking at a supply-side shift that could lower inflation, enable Fed rate cuts, reduce energy costs across every industry, and expand corporate profit margins. Oil isn’t just what you pump into your car. It’s embedded in plastics, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers, construction materials, packaging, synthetic fabrics, and thousands of products. When oil gets cheaper, everything gets cheaper.

Energy stocks responded instantly. Chevron, the only U.S. oil major currently operating in Venezuela, jumped 5.1%. Refiners like Valero surged 9.2% and Marathon gained 5.9% because they process Venezuelan heavy crude. Oilfield service companies Halliburton and SLB rallied 7.8% and 8.9% on expectations they’ll be called to rebuild infrastructure.

**Venezuela** holds 161 metric tons of gold reserves, making it the Latin American country with the largest holdings.

But here’s where it gets even more interesting: Venezuela doesn’t just have oil. It holds critical minerals—rare earths, gold, silver—that are essential for semiconductors, AI chips, and defense technology. Right now, China controls roughly 90% of global rare earth supply and uses that leverage in the trade war through export controls. If the U.S. gains access to Venezuelan minerals, it fundamentally shifts the balance of power in the AI race and reduces dependence on Chinese supply chains.

The dollar implications cut both ways. On one hand, securing the world’s largest oil reserve under U.S. influence strengthens American economic power. On the other hand, the operation reinforces global concerns about U.S. unilateralism and accelerates de-dollarization efforts. Central banks have been quietly diversifying out of dollars for years. The dollar’s share of global reserves fell nearly 9% in 2025 to just 40%—the lowest this century. When America demonstrates it will act unilaterally to protect interests, other nations respond by reducing dollar exposure.

The long-term scenario most investors aren’t pricing in: Venezuelan oil production takes years to restore, requiring tens of billions in infrastructure investment. Trump told NBC it could take 18 months minimum, but energy experts estimate 5-10 years and $100 billion to meaningfully scale production. You’re not getting an immediate supply surge. But you are getting a credible long-term shift in energy markets that changes how traders price risk premiums, how the Fed thinks about inflation, and how investors value energy-dependent businesses.

Think about the timing. AI data centers are consuming electricity at unprecedented rates. Energy Secretary Chris Wright mentioned needing 35GW of new generation capacity just to bridge the gap until renewables come online. Venezuelan oil provides exactly the energy security America needs to maintain AI leadership without grid constraints becoming a chokepoint.

During my years on Wall Street, I saw how supply-side shocks reshape entire market narratives. This is one of those moments. The question isn’t whether this matters—it clearly does. The question is how quickly markets price in the implications versus how long actual production restoration takes. That gap between expectation and reality is where opportunities and risks both live.

2️⃣ What The Market Needs From The AI Trade This Year

JPMorgan’s 2026 outlook emphasized that investing in stocks today requires belief in AI’s continued success. It’s not optional exposure anymore—it’s the foundation holding up market valuations. If you’re betting on the S&P 500 continuing higher, you’re betting the AI bubble doesn’t burst.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: AI-related stocks drove virtually all market gains in 2025. The Magnificent Seven alone account for 37% of the S&P 500’s total value. When concentration reaches these levels, portfolio performance becomes binary. Either AI delivers on its promise and everyone wins, or it doesn’t and everyone loses together.

JPMorgan outlined three key metrics for detecting bubble risk in 2026:

Exuberance levels: When everyone’s bullish, that’s historically a negative indicator. Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey shows near-universal bullishness right now. That’s concerning. During my time in finance, I learned that when consensus becomes that strong, it’s usually time to get cautious. Markets thrive on disagreement. When disagreement disappears, volatility is coming.

Credit standards: Bubbles grow when cheap credit magnifies gains and obscures risks. We’re not seeing reckless credit expansion yet, but monitor corporate borrowing carefully. If companies start taking on massive debt to fund AI initiatives with unclear payback periods, that’s a red flag.

Cash flows: Companies need to show they’re responsibly managing balance sheets even while racing to win AI dominance. If capital expenditures balloon without corresponding revenue growth, investors will eventually punish those businesses.

Here’s what AI needs to deliver in 2026 to justify current valuations: demonstrable productivity gains showing up in corporate earnings, actual revenue generation from AI products (not just investment spending), margin expansion from AI implementation, and proof that compute demand translates into sustainable business models for chipmakers and infrastructure providers.

We’re starting to see evidence this is happening. Micron reported 80% of employees now use AI tools, up tenfold from a year ago, with 30% productivity gains in software development. OpenAI says weekly message volume to ChatGPT Enterprise rose eightfold over the past year. More than 60% of Fortune 500 companies now use AI programming assistants like Cursor.

But productivity gains in software development don’t automatically translate to broad economic value. The real test comes when AI demonstrably improves margins for manufacturers, retailers, healthcare providers, and logistics companies—the backbone of the economy. If AI stays confined to tech companies building more AI, that’s a circular reference, not a sustainable business model.

The storage shift this week tells you something important: markets are starting to look beyond the obvious AI plays. Nvidia’s dominance is acknowledged. Now investors are hunting for the next layer of AI infrastructure winners. Memory and storage companies surged because Jensen Huang highlighted a market that “never existed” before—holding “the working memory of the world’s AIs.”

Sandisk jumping 27% in one day shows retail money chasing the narrative. Be careful with that. Memory markets are cyclical. Companies like Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate will benefit from AI demand, but they’ll also face boom-bust cycles as supply adjusts to demand. The smart play is taking profits when everyone’s euphoric, not buying in.

Here’s my framework for thinking about AI investments in 2026: Separate infrastructure plays (chips, storage, data centers, energy) from application plays (software, enterprise tools, consumer products). Infrastructure has clearer demand visibility right now. Applications need to prove they can monetize effectively.

Within infrastructure, favor companies with pricing power and supply constraints over those facing commoditized competition. Within applications, favor businesses with demonstrated retention and expansion metrics over those with user growth but unclear monetization.

And most importantly, size your AI exposure appropriately. If your portfolio mirrors the S&P 500’s 37% concentration in Mag Seven, you’re taking massive single-theme risk. Consider rebalancing some of those gains into value stocks, commodities, international equities, or defensive sectors. Bull markets reward aggressive positioning. Bear markets punish concentrated risk. You don’t know which one’s coming next.

As I mentioned when I discussed market concentration several weeks ago, diversification isn’t exciting when everything’s going up. But it’s the difference between retiring comfortably and giving back years of gains in a brutal correction. If you listened then and trimmed your tech exposure at higher prices, you’ve got dry powder for opportunities. If you didn’t, now’s still a good time to rebalance.

3️⃣ Big IPOs Are Coming in 2026

Renaissance Capital reported that 2025 saw IPO activity jump 35%, with 202 companies going public and raising $44 billion. That momentum is expected to accelerate in 2026 as privately held AI unicorns run out of room in private markets and need public capital to fund massive infrastructure spending.

The names lining up are extraordinary. SpaceX is targeting a $30 billion raise that would value the company at $1.5 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion 2019 debut. OpenAI is eyeing a $1 trillion valuation. Anthropic, creator of Claude, was valued near $350 billion in November. Discord just confidentially filed for an IPO with Goldman and JPMorgan as advisers.

Here’s why this matters for your portfolio: These IPOs won’t just be capital-raising events. They’ll be valuation-setting moments that determine how public markets price AI infrastructure, enterprise software, and next-generation technology. If SpaceX prices at $1.5 trillion and trades up, it validates sky-high valuations across the space and satellite sector. If OpenAI successfully goes public near $1 trillion, it sets the ceiling for AI model companies. If either stumbles, it could trigger a broad repricing across the tech sector.

The IPO market’s health is a real-time barometer of risk appetite. When companies can successfully go public and trade up, it signals investors are confident about growth prospects. When IPOs get postponed or price below expectations, it reveals underlying anxiety.

Think about what happened in 2021-2022. SPACs flooded the market with dozens of companies that had no business going public. Investors got burned badly when the bubble popped. That experience makes investors more cautious now, which is actually healthy. The bar for successful IPOs is higher. Companies need real revenue, credible paths to profitability, and defensible competitive advantages.

The private equity angle is crucial too. Medline, a medical supplies maker backed by private equity, went public just before Christmas and surged 40% from its IPO price. That success could unlock a wave of PE-backed companies choosing to exit through public markets rather than private sales. During my time covering M&A, I saw how one successful exit opens the floodgates for similar deals. Everyone wants to sell at the top.

For individual investors, be selective about IPO participation. The data is clear: most IPOs underperform in the first year. You’re better off waiting 3-6 months after the IPO to see how the company performs as a public entity before buying shares. The lockup period expiration (typically 180 days) often creates selling pressure as insiders liquidate positions.

The exception? If you get IPO allocation at the offering price (unlikely unless you’re a big client at a major brokerage), the pop on day one can be profitable. But chasing IPOs in the secondary market rarely works. You’re buying at peak hype with minimal public information about the actual business.

Here’s the contrarian take: The surge in IPO activity could be a late-cycle signal. Companies typically rush to go public when valuations are stretched and investor appetite is strong. That often happens near market peaks. I’m not saying we’re at a peak, but the pattern is worth noting.

If SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic all go public in 2026 at nosebleed valuations, ask yourself: are these companies raising capital to fund growth, or are insiders and early investors cashing out at the top? The answer determines whether these are opportunities or traps.

My approach: Watch the IPOs closely for what they reveal about market sentiment and valuation trends. But don’t feel pressured to participate. There will always be opportunities to buy great companies at reasonable prices. Buying overhyped IPOs at inflated valuations rarely ends well for retail investors.

4️⃣ Banks Bet On Crypto

Morgan Stanley filed with the SEC this week to launch ETFs holding bitcoin and solana, becoming the first major Wall Street bank to jump into the crypto fund space. This comes after BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, launched in January 2024, became the firm’s most profitable ETF by October, generating $244.5 million in annual revenue.

The message is clear: Wall Street has fully embraced crypto after years of dismissing it as “internet magic money” for basement-dwellers. When the money got big enough, the skepticism evaporated.

For banks, crypto ETFs solve several problems. Clients want exposure but don’t want to deal with digital wallets, private keys, and custody risks. ETFs package crypto into a familiar investment vehicle that fits existing brokerage accounts and retirement plans. That accessibility dramatically expands the addressable market.

But let’s be honest about what this means: You’re not avoiding crypto volatility just because you own it in an ETF wrapper. Bitcoin fell 15.45% over the past six months. When it drops, your ETF drops with it. The ETF structure provides convenience, not safety.

The regulatory environment has shifted dramatically. With crypto-friendly leadership at the SEC, firms are racing to file for crypto products. That approval pipeline will likely accelerate through 2026, bringing more exotic crypto ETFs to market.

Here’s what I want you to understand about crypto in portfolios: It’s a high-volatility asset class. You’re betting on future adoption.

The case for crypto centers on three arguments: (1) digital scarcity in an increasingly digital economy, (2) hedge against currency debasement as governments print money, (3) decentralized alternative to traditional financial infrastructure. All three arguments have merit.

The case against crypto is equally strong: extreme volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and the reality that governments won’t cede monetary control without a fight. When push comes to shove, governments will defend their currency monopolies aggressively.

My take? Own some Bitcoin if you believe in the thesis.

Bitwise says a 5% rotation from gold to **Bitcoin** would send BTC above $242,000

5️⃣ Robot Euphoria Is Taking CES by Storm

CES this week showcased the next wave of AI applications: robots. Boston Dynamics unveiled the commercial version of its Atlas humanoid robot. LG demonstrated a domestic robot that can fetch items from the fridge and fold laundry. Nvidia announced new AI models designed to accelerate robotics development. The enthusiasm was palpable, and it even lifted lithium miner Albemarle on expectations of battery demand.

Here’s what matters: We’re moving from AI as software to AI as physical agents operating in the real world. That’s a fundamentally different challenge requiring major advances in sensors, actuators, power systems, and real-time decision-making. It’s also an enormous market opportunity.

Boston Dynamics’ Atlas robot will start in Hyundai’s Georgia factory in 2028, with plans for global deployment by 2030. Hyundai is building a factory capable of producing 30,000 Atlas robots annually. At six feet tall, 198 pounds, with four-hour battery life and autonomous battery swapping, Atlas represents a credible industrial solution—not a science project.

The economics make sense for manufacturers. If a robot can work 24/7 without breaks, benefits, or errors, and costs less than equivalent human labor over its lifespan, factories will adopt them aggressively. The hurdle isn’t technology anymore—it’s cost and reliability. Once those thresholds are crossed, adoption accelerates.

For consumer applications, we’re still early. LG’s domestic robot is impressive but expensive. It’ll take years before household robots become affordable enough for mass adoption. Think of it like autonomous vehicles—the technology works, but the price needs to drop 80-90% before mainstream consumers buy in.

The productivity story is the real sleeper here. Companies are reporting significant gains from AI tool adoption. Micron says 80% of employees now use AI tools, up tenfold from last year, with 30% productivity improvements. OpenAI’s ChatGPT Enterprise weekly message volume rose eightfold over the past year. Cursor, an AI programming assistant, now counts 60% of Fortune 500 companies as customers.

These aren’t marginal improvements—they’re step-function changes in how work gets done. When software developers get 30% more productive, companies can either do more with the same team or reduce headcount. Both outcomes boost margins. When customer service reps use AI to handle inquiries faster, response times improve and costs fall. These gains compound over time.

But here’s the tension everyone’s dancing around: If AI and robots make workers dramatically more productive, what happens to employment? Either companies grow fast enough to absorb the productivity gains, or jobs disappear. We’re heading into a period where technological unemployment becomes a real policy challenge, not a theoretical concern.

For investors, this creates both opportunity and risk. Opportunity in companies implementing AI effectively and seeing margin expansion. Risk if AI leads to consumer spending declines because employment falls and wages stagnate.

Nvidia’s $5 billion purchase of Intel shares this week tells you where the smart money is betting. Nvidia isn’t just dominating AI chips—it’s positioning itself to own the entire AI infrastructure stack, from chips to software to servers. That’s the kind of vertical integration that creates durable competitive advantages and pricing power.

The Nvidia-Intel deal is particularly interesting because Intel has struggled for years to compete in AI. By partnering rather than competing, Intel gets capital and relevance. Nvidia gets access to Intel’s CPU technology and manufacturing relationships. It’s the kind of deal that makes sense for both sides but signals Nvidia’s dominance. When you’re strong enough to buy pieces of your competitors at 36% discounts to market prices, you’ve won.

My advice: Don’t chase robot stocks on CES hype. The technology is real, but commercialization takes time. Focus instead on companies demonstrably improving productivity with AI today—businesses with margin expansion driven by AI implementation, not just AI spending.

💡 Andrew’s Analysis:

Here’s how these stories connect: We’re watching the architecture of global power shift in real-time.

Venezuela gives the U.S. energy abundance and leverage. That enables technological expansion without energy constraints. Technological expansion drives demand for chips, storage, rare earth materials, and infrastructure. That demand shows up in commodity prices (copper, gold, silver) and corporate investment decisions. As AI proves its value through productivity gains, companies accelerate adoption. That adoption creates the business case for robots, autonomous systems, and next-generation applications.

Meanwhile, traditional power structures are fracturing. The dollar’s reserve status is eroding as countries diversify away from U.S.-controlled financial infrastructure. China’s rare earth dominance gives it leverage in the tech race. U.S. military action in Venezuela demonstrates willingness to secure resources unilaterally, which accelerates de-dollarization efforts. It’s a self-reinforcing cycle of competition and fragmentation.

For investors, this means a few things:

First, diversification matters more than ever. You can’t just own U.S. tech stocks and call it a day. You need exposure to commodities, international equities, precious metals, and defensive sectors. When power structures shift, concentrated portfolios get hurt.

Second, energy abundance is deflationary. If Venezuelan oil comes online meaningfully, that benefits almost every sector by lowering input costs. That’s bullish for stocks but bearish for energy producers who face falling prices. Think through second-order effects.

Third, the AI trade is real but crowded. Productivity gains are showing up in corporate data. But valuations are stretched and sentiment is euphoric. That’s usually when you want to be taking chips off the table, not going all-in.

Fourth, de-dollarization is a slow-motion crisis with huge implications. If the dollar loses reserve status, U.S. assets reprice lower and borrowing costs rise. That’s not happening tomorrow, but it’s happening. Gold, silver, and other hard assets provide insurance against that risk.

As I mentioned weeks ago when I discussed global power shifts, these transitions don’t happen overnight. But they’re happening. And positioning your portfolio today for the world that’s emerging—not the world that was—determines whether you build wealth or watch it erode over the next decade.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X/ Twitter, Instagram Threads, or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!

(3) Chart of the Day

Institutions are reducing dollar exposure:

💡 Andrew’s Analysis & Deep Dive:

The chart shows Bloomberg Intelligence data tracking the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign currency reserves, which has plummeted from roughly 63% in 2000 to just 40% in 2025—the lowest level this century. This isn’t a short-term blip. It’s a two-decade trend that accelerated dramatically over the past five years.

Here’s why this matters more than almost any other chart you’ll see this year: Reserve currency status is the foundation of American economic power. It allows the U.S. to run enormous budget deficits without suffering currency crises. It lets American companies borrow and trade in their home currency without exchange rate risk. It gives the U.S. government the ability to impose sanctions that actually work. When that status erodes, everything built on top of it becomes more expensive and less stable.

Think about what reserve currency status actually means. Central banks worldwide hold U.S. dollars and Treasury bonds as their primary store of value. That creates constant demand for dollars regardless of U.S. economic fundamentals. This “exorbitant privilege,” as French policymakers famously called it, effectively gives America a permanent, interest-free loan from the rest of the world. We can import more than we export, spend more than we produce, and borrow endlessly—because global demand for dollars absorbs the excess supply.

But that privilege isn’t eternal. It rests on three pillars: (1) trust in U.S. institutions, (2) liquidity and depth of U.S. financial markets, (3) lack of viable alternatives. All three pillars are weakening simultaneously.

The Venezuela operation this week perfectly illustrates the tension. On one hand, securing access to the world’s largest oil reserve strengthens America’s economic position and demonstrates power. On the other hand, it reinforces global concerns about U.S. unilateralism. When America freezes Russian central bank reserves after the Ukraine invasion, uses the dollar as a sanctions weapon, and demonstrates willingness to act militarily to secure resources, other nations respond by reducing dollar dependence.

China has been systematically building alternatives for years—yuan-denominated oil contracts, bilateral trade agreements bypassing dollar settlement, regional payment systems that don’t touch U.S. financial infrastructure. The BRICS nations are actively discussing trade in local currencies. None of these efforts can replace the dollar immediately, but they’re chipping away at its monopoly.

Here’s the scenario that should concern investors: As dollar reserve status continues eroding, U.S. borrowing costs gradually rise. The federal government’s ability to run large deficits becomes more expensive. That forces difficult choices—raise taxes, cut spending, or accept higher inflation. None of those outcomes are bullish for U.S. assets.

At the same time, the technology rally could offset de-dollarization pressures by attracting foreign capital into U.S. equities. If America maintains its lead in AI, cloud computing, and next-generation technologies, global investors will need dollars to buy U.S. tech stocks. That capital flow supports the dollar even as reserve status declines.

AI-driven capital flows into U.S. equities could be dollar-positive because foreign investors typically buy dollars to purchase U.S. stocks and often don’t hedge that currency exposure. In other words, America’s technological dominance might save the dollar even as its geopolitical dominance alienates partners.

The chart also explains the gold rally. When central banks lose confidence in dollar-based reserve systems, they buy gold. Gold has no counterparty risk, can’t be frozen or sanctioned, and maintains value across political regimes. Gold hitting near-record levels this week isn’t random—it’s a direct response to declining dollar reserve status and geopolitical uncertainty.

Silver’s 8% surge and copper’s record highs tell the same story from different angles. Silver benefits from both safe-haven demand and industrial uses in solar panels and electronics. Copper reflects real economic demand from AI infrastructure build-outs. But all three metals—gold, silver, copper—are benefiting from the same macro shift: declining confidence in fiat currency systems and increasing focus on hard assets with intrinsic utility.

From a portfolio construction standpoint, this chart argues for several moves:

One: Reduce home country bias. If you’re 100% U.S. equities, you’re making an implicit bet that dollar dominance continues. That’s increasingly risky. Allocate 10-20% to international developed markets (Europe, Japan, Australia) and 5-10% to select emerging markets with strong fundamentals.

Two: Own hard assets. Gold should be 5-10% of portfolios as insurance against dollar weakness and geopolitical shocks. Silver and copper miners provide additional diversification with higher volatility. Use ETFs like GLD (gold), SLV (silver), COPX (copper) for easy exposure.

Three: Consider currency-hedged international equity positions if you’re worried about dollar strength in the short term but want international exposure. Many international equity ETFs offer hedged versions that eliminate currency risk.

Four: Don’t panic. This is a decade-long trend, not an overnight collapse. The dollar remains the dominant reserve currency by a wide margin. But position your portfolio today for gradual erosion rather than assuming permanent supremacy.

During my years on Wall Street, I watched countless investors make the same mistake: assuming whatever trend was in place would continue forever. Bull markets felt permanent. Housing always went up. The dollar was unassailable. Until suddenly it wasn’t.

The best investors don’t predict when trends break—they position portfolios to survive regardless of which scenario plays out. Own U.S. equities because the companies are excellent and globally competitive. But hedge that exposure with international stocks, commodities, and real assets. When dollar dominance eventually fades—whether that takes 5 years or 50—you’ll be positioned to benefit from whatever replaces it rather than losing wealth in the transition.

The chart isn’t screaming “sell everything and buy gold.” It’s whispering “diversify now before you wish you had.” Listen to that whisper. Your future self will thank you.

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(4) Top Performing Stocks

1. Aeva Technologies $AEVA up +34% on Tuesday 1/6
2. Sandisk $SNDK up +28% on Tuesday 1/6
3. Microchip Technology $MCHP up +12% on Tuesday 1/6
4. Centrus Energy $LEU up +10% on Monday 1/5
5. Coinbase $COIN up +8% on Monday 1/5
6. Novo Nordisk $NVO up +5% on Monday 1/5
7. Lucid Group $LCID up +5% on Monday 1/5

1) Aeva Technologies $AEVA up +34% on Tuesday 1/6

Aeva Technologies shares went Up +34% after the company was selected to help Nvidia build its self-driving car platform. Aeva makes “Lidar” sensors, which are like eyes for autonomous vehicles, helping them see the road. This partnership with the king of semiconductors (Nvidia) validates Aeva’s technology and puts them at the center of the massive autonomous driving trend.

2) Sandisk $SNDK up +28% on Tuesday 1/6

Sandisk stock moved Up +28% following the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), where Nvidia’s CEO highlighted a massive need for memory storage to support Artificial Intelligence. Sandisk makes the flash memory and storage devices that hold data. The logic here is simple: AI requires massive amounts of data, and all that data needs to be stored somewhere. Investors are realizing that storage companies are the next big winners in the AI boom.

3) Microchip Technology $MCHP up +12% on Tuesday 1/6

Microchip Technology shares finished Up +12% after the company gave a revenue forecast that was better than Wall Street feared. This company makes the “smart” chips found in everything from cars to washing machines. When they predict stronger sales, it signals that the broader economy and manufacturing sectors are getting healthier and inventory gluts are clearing up.

4) Centrus Energy $LEU up +10% on Monday 1/5

Centrus Energy stock traded Up +10% after the U.S. government awarded the company $900 million. Centrus supplies nuclear fuel, and this funding is specifically to support next-generation nuclear reactors and build a new enrichment facility in Tennessee. With the demand for electricity soaring (thanks to AI data centers), nuclear energy is back in the spotlight as a clean, reliable power source.

5) Coinbase $COIN up +8% on Monday 1/5

Coinbase shares went Up +8% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to a “Buy” rating. The analysts noted that the recent drop in price was a great buying opportunity. As the largest crypto exchange in the U.S., Coinbase tends to move with the price of Bitcoin, but this upgrade suggests Wall Street sees value in the business model regardless of daily crypto volatility.

6) Novo Nordisk $NVO up +5% on Monday 1/5

Novo Nordisk stock went Up +5% after launching the first-ever pill version of a GLP-1 obesity treatment in the U.S. Until now, these popular weight-loss drugs were mostly injections (like Ozempic). A pill is much easier for patients to take, which could open the floodgates to millions of new customers who were afraid of needles.

7) Lucid Group $LCID up +5% on Monday 1/5

Lucid Group stock moved Up +5% after reporting that its vehicle deliveries jumped 55% compared to last year. Lucid makes high-end electric luxury sedans. This growth is a relief to investors who were worried about slowing demand for EVs. It shows that despite competition from Tesla and BYD, there is still a market for their niche luxury vehicles.

💡 Andrew’s Analysis:

Here’s what connects these winners: AI infrastructure and energy security.

The storage stock explosion (Sandisk, Western Digital, Seagate) shows AI’s impact is moving beyond chips into every component needed to run these systems. Aeva’s Nvidia partnership and Microchip’s strong guidance reinforce that the AI build-out remains real and accelerating.

Centrus Energy’s $900 million award reflects the other side of AI infrastructure—power generation. Data centers need reliable electricity, and nuclear is getting serious attention as the solution.

The lesson? AI isn’t just a software story anymore—it’s reshaping energy, storage, transportation, and capital markets simultaneously. The companies winning are those positioned at critical infrastructure chokepoints where demand is surging and supply is constrained. That’s where pricing power lives, and pricing power is how you compound wealth over time.

The theme is clear. The market is moving away from "cool ideas" and toward "essential infrastructure." We are betting on the plumbing of the AI revolution (storage) and the future of health (weight loss drugs). In my 20 years in finance, I have seen this pattern before. When a new technology matures, the money shifts from the inventors to the suppliers. Storage is the new oil, and weight loss is the new internet.

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(5) Today’s Trade

1. Trilogy Metals $TMQ: Mining for Upside

Trilogy Metals $TMQ saw explosive options activity on Tuesday, with call volume hitting 10,490 contracts—40 times the normal daily average and creating a 20:1 call-to-put ratio. That’s massive bullish positioning.

Here’s what happened: traders bought over 7,000 of the January 16, 2026, $5.50 strike calls through multiple block trades, paying an average of $0.30 per contract. The open interest was only 410 contracts before this activity, meaning these are fresh positions, not covering existing shorts. That suggests real conviction, not hedging.

Trilogy Metals develops copper and zinc projects in Alaska. With copper hitting record highs above $6 per pound this week (up 6% already in 2026 and 42% last year), miners are getting renewed attention. The metal’s rally is driven by AI data center construction, EV production, and power grid upgrades—all copper-intensive applications.

The catch? Trilogy shares have dropped over 50% in the past three months after hitting a 52-week high of $11.29. The stock closed Tuesday at $5.17. These call buyers are betting the selloff created an opportunity as copper prices surge to new records.

My take: I’m cautiously bullish on this trade. The fundamentals for copper remain strong. Supply constraints from mine disruptions and heavy U.S. stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs support prices. If copper holds above $6 or pushes higher, Trilogy could benefit as investors rotate into beaten-down mining names with leverage to metal prices.

The risk? Mining stocks are volatile, and Trilogy is a development-stage company without production revenue yet. The January 16 expiration gives traders just 9 days to be right. That’s aggressive timing for a speculative miner.

If you’re considering similar trades, remember what I learned during my decade on Wall Street: options on volatile small-caps can pay off huge or expire worthless. Size accordingly. This is a lottery ticket, not a core holding.

2. Vertical Aerospace $EVTL: Flying Higher for Longer

Vertical Aerospace $EVTL saw even more extreme options action, with call volume spiking to 20,943 contracts—200 times average volume and creating a 300:1 call-to-put ratio. That’s about as bullish as options positioning gets.

The twist here is the trade structure. Instead of buying straight calls, traders used calendar spreads to roll 10,000 long January 16, 2026, $7.50 calls out to February 20, 2026. They paid $0.45 for the extra 35 days of time. This “roll for a debit” strategy is bullish because it extends duration, giving the trade more time to work.

Vertical Aerospace develops electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOLs)—essentially flying taxis. The stock is up 23% year-to-date at $6.41, and these options traders clearly believe the rally is just beginning.

The bull case: Urban air mobility is moving from science fiction toward reality. Vertical has partnerships and is progressing toward certification. If the company hits development milestones or secures additional funding, the stock could continue higher. Rolling calls out to February gives exposure through potential catalyst dates.

The bear case: eVTOL companies face enormous regulatory, technical, and financial hurdles. Most won’t survive. Vertical’s stock trades under $7, suggesting the market has serious doubts about execution.

My take: I’m neutral to slightly bearish on this specific trade. Yes, the 300:1 call-to-put ratio and calendar spread structure show conviction. But I’ve seen too many speculative aviation and electric vehicle plays disappoint investors. When I worked in finance, we called these “story stocks”—great narrative, uncertain execution.

If the broader market corrects or risk appetite fades, speculative names like Vertical get hit hardest. The traders rolling calls are betting momentum continues. That works until it doesn’t.

For retail investors, avoid chasing options on speculative development-stage companies unless you’re comfortable losing the entire investment. If you believe in urban air mobility, consider diversifying across multiple eVTOL companies or waiting for clearer production timelines before risking capital.

The common thread in both trades? Commodity exposure (copper) and future technology (eVTOLs) are attracting speculative options activity. That tells you where risk appetite is focusing right now. Just remember that options on small, volatile stocks are asymmetric bets—limited downside to premium paid, but time decay works against you every single day.

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(6) Fear & Greed Analysis

The overall Fear & Greed Index reading is neutral, sitting at 47 out of 100. That’s up from 44 a week ago, 38 a month ago, and 34 a year ago. This steady climb from extreme fear territory (34) to neutral levels (47) tells an important story about investor psychology.

Here’s what matters: markets don’t need extreme greed to keep rising—they just need to avoid extreme fear. The index at 47 represents balanced sentiment. Bulls and bears are roughly matched. Nobody’s panicking, but nobody’s euphoric either. That’s actually healthy for sustained gains.

Think about the trajectory. A year ago, the index was at 34, firmly in fear territory. Investors were worried about inflation, rate hikes, recession risks, and geopolitical tensions. Fast forward to today, and those fears have moderated. Inflation is falling, the Fed is positioned to cut rates if needed, and corporate earnings remain resilient. The improvement from 34 to 47 reflects that shift.

But here’s the crucial insight: neutral sentiment creates less downside risk than extreme greed. When everyone’s euphoric (readings above 75), corrections tend to be sharp because there are no buyers left. When sentiment is neutral, pullbacks attract buyers waiting on the sidelines. That buying support creates a floor under prices.

The fact that we’ve moved steadily higher over three months (38 to 44 to 47) without spiking into greed territory suggests investors remain cautious despite strong market performance. The S&P 500 and Dow are hitting all-time highs, yet sentiment hasn’t turned euphoric. That divergence often precedes continued gains because skepticism keeps valuations in check.

During my years working in finance, I learned that the most dangerous markets aren’t the ones where everyone’s fearful—those create buying opportunities. The dangerous markets are where everyone’s greedy and convinced nothing can go wrong. We’re not there yet.

My advice: Don’t fight markets with neutral sentiment and improving fundamentals. If the Fear & Greed Index were at 80+ (extreme greed), I’d tell you to take profits and rotate defensive. But at 47 with an upward trend from fear to neutral? Stay invested. Add to positions on any dips. This environment favors bulls who remain disciplined about valuation and position sizing.

The index may not be exciting, but boring is beautiful in bull markets. Neutral sentiment with improving economic data is the recipe for steady gains that compound over time without the violent reversals that come from euphoric extremes.

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(7) Technical Analysis

1) S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑

The S&P 500's technical picture is positive. The index trades in a rising trend channel, which means investors have consistently bought at higher prices over time. That's the definition of an uptrend, and trend is your friend until it breaks.

The index closed at 6,945 with support around 6,900. There’s no meaningful resistance overhead, which suggests further gains are likely. During uptrends without resistance, markets tend to grind higher as momentum builds. The technical term is “price discovery”—the market is testing new highs because there’s no prior selling pressure to overcome.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is healthy and not overbought, which means the rally has room to run without triggering technical selling.

What you need to watch: the 6,900 support level. As long as the S&P holds above that, the uptrend remains intact. A break below would signal weakening momentum and could trigger stops, creating a cascade of selling. But we’re not there yet.

My view: Stay long. The technicals support further gains, fundamentals are improving (falling inflation, potential Fed cuts), and sentiment remains neutral rather than euphoric. That’s a bullish combination. If you’ve been waiting to add equity exposure, do it on any dip toward 6,900 support. If you’re fully invested, maintain positions and let the trend work for you.

2) Tech Stocks QQQ 0.00%↑

The Nasdaq-100’s technical picture is neutral. The index sits in a rising trend channel but is approaching resistance at 25,770. This is a critical juncture where technicals either confirm continuation or signal reversal.

Here’s what’s happening: the index closed at 25,654, just below that 25,770 resistance level. Resistance represents prior selling pressure—a price where sellers previously overwhelmed buyers. When an index approaches resistance, one of two things happens: it breaks through (bullish) or gets rejected (bearish).

The rising RSI supports bulls. RSI measures momentum, and an upward-sloping RSI curve typically precedes price gains. Think of it like this: momentum is building, but the index needs to prove it can break through overhead resistance to confirm the next leg higher.

For tech investors, this is your watch zone. A clean break above 25,770 on strong volume would be extremely bullish, likely triggering another rally leg. But a rejection could lead to consolidation or even a pullback toward lower support levels.

My advice? Don’t chase here. Let the index resolve this resistance test before adding new positions. If it breaks higher, you can buy on the breakout with confirmation. If it fails, you avoided buying the top. Patience pays when technicals are neutral and approaching key levels.

The Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward AI and tech stocks that drove 2025’s gains. Those names need to keep performing to push through resistance. Watch earnings and AI spending announcements closely—they’ll determine if 25,770 becomes a ceiling or a springboard.

3) Bitcoin $BTC

Bitcoin’s technical picture is neutral. The cryptocurrency broke up from a horizontal trend channel, which typically signals continued strength. But it’s now testing resistance at $93,400 after closing at $92,609.

Here’s the setup: breaking out of a horizontal channel is bullish because it shows buyers finally overwhelmed sellers in a previously balanced range. Think of it like a coiled spring releasing upward. The breakout suggests momentum is building.

But now comes the test. Resistance at $93,400 represents a price where prior selling pressure emerged. Bitcoin needs to punch through and hold above that level to confirm the breakout is real, not a false start.

The rising RSI supports the bull case, showing improving momentum that often precedes price gains. But bitcoin dropped 1.27% on Tuesday, showing some hesitation at these levels.

Context matters here. Bitcoin has fallen 16% over the past 66 days despite the recent bounce. Medium and long-term technicals remain weak negative, meaning the broader trend is still down. This rally could be a counter-trend bounce within a larger correction.

For crypto investors, the question is whether Wall Street’s embrace changes bitcoin’s trajectory. Morgan Stanley filing for bitcoin and solana ETFs this week adds institutional legitimacy. That’s structurally bullish over time. But short-term technicals show bitcoin needs to prove itself at current levels.

My take: Wait for confirmation. If bitcoin breaks cleanly above $93,400 and holds for several days, that’s your buy signal. Until then, you’re catching a falling knife. I’ve seen too many false breakouts in crypto to chase without confirmation.

If you’re considering buying, wait for technical confirmation or dollar-cost average small amounts over time to reduce timing risk.

The technicals say “hold” for a reason—the picture is mixed. Bulls have momentum. Bears have the longer-term trend. Let the market decide at $93,400, then adjust accordingly.

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👋Final Thoughts:

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Valerie

Jan 9Edited

Wow! Thank You for your perspective, Andrew.

1 reply by Andrew Lokenauth

LM Finance

6dEdited

Fantastic essay. Just one question, how can you be optimistic about US occupying and utilizing Venezuelan oil to generate output at scale and bring down the oil price?

I ask this because US oil giants turned down Trump’s inviting to go back to Venezuela. This makes a lot sense given green energy are substituting oil and volatile geopolitical situation in Venezuela, which both question the economic feasibility of the investment.

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