💥 What The Dollar Crashing, Silver Soaring, and the K-Shaped Economy Mean for You

The Truth about the Silver Rally, the K-Shaped Economy, and Why GDP is Up but Jobs are Down

Dec 29, 2025

👋 Good Evening my friend, I hope you’re having a great week! Thanks for joining 108,000 subscribers who trust our newsletter to get smarter with money, investing, and the economy.

My goal is simple: Make it easy for you to connect the dots on the economy, markets, and investing in 10 minutes or less!

📬 In today’s issue:

Part I - Markets & Economy:
1. Market Update & Analysis
2. The Most Important Finance News 
3. Chart of the Day

Part II - Investing & Stocks:
4. Stocks to Watch
5. Today's Trade
6. Fear & Greed Analysis
7. Technical Analysis

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(1) Market Update & Analysis

📈 Everything You Need to Know About the Markets:

Stock Market:

The S&P 500 hit its 39th record high of 2025, climbing nearly 18% for the year and approaching the historic 7,000 milestone for the first time
This marks the eighth straight month of gains, the longest winning streak since 2017-2018
Retail traders now control over 20% of daily trading volume, more than mutual funds and non-quant hedge funds combined

Precious Metals Explosion:

Silver surged 169% this year, hitting record highs above $79 per ounce
Gold climbed 73%, reaching $4,530 per ounce in its best year since 1979
Platinum jumped 172% while copper gained 36% in its best year since 2009

Currency & Global Markets:

The dollar fell 9%, marking its worst year since 2017
Europe’s Stoxx 600 and Canada’s TSX hit fresh all-time highs

What’s Driving This:

Strong consumer spending (despite flat wage growth)
AI investment frenzy led by companies like Nvidia (which crossed $5 trillion market cap)
Safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions and debt concerns

💡 Andrew’s Market Analysis:

Here’s something I learned during my time on Wall Street: when the market makes sense to everyone, that’s usually when you should worry. Right now? Nothing makes sense, and that should make you very, very careful.

Let me be blunt. We’re watching an economy grow at 4.3% while creating zero jobs. That’s not just unusual. In my two decades doing this, I’ve never seen anything like it. Neither has KPMG’s chief economist. This is the economic equivalent of a car accelerating with an empty gas tank.

The Real Story: Growth Without Jobs

Think about what’s actually happening. The economy is supposedly booming, yet unemployment keeps climbing (now at 4.6%). Companies are posting record profits ($166 billion in Q3 alone), but they’re not hiring. They’ve figured out how to squeeze more output from fewer workers. When I worked at JP Morgan, we called this “doing more with less.” Today, it’s the entire economy’s strategy.

Here’s the problem: consumer spending can’t drive growth forever when consumers aren’t earning more money. Real disposable income was literally flat last quarter. Zero percent growth. So where’s the spending coming from? Three places, none of them sustainable:

Draining savings accounts (pandemic cushions are nearly gone)
Racking up credit card debt (which is rising across all income levels)
Spending on stuff they can’t avoid (healthcare spending hit its highest level since 2022)

This isn’t confidence. This is survival spending dressed up as economic strength.

Why Precious Metals Are Soaring

Now let’s talk about those metal prices, because they’re telling you something critical. Silver up 169%. Gold up 73%. These aren’t normal moves. These are fear moves.

When I started in finance, we had a saying: “Gold goes up when people don’t trust paper.” Right now, people don’t trust paper. They don’t trust the dollar (down 9%). They don’t trust government debt (spiraling into the stratosphere). They don’t trust that inflation is really under control.

The silver surge is particularly interesting. Unlike gold, which is mostly a store of value, silver has industrial uses (solar panels, electric vehicles, AI data centers). So you’re seeing two types of buyers: investors hedging against currency debasement and manufacturers stockpiling ahead of China’s export restrictions (starting January 1st). That’s a powerful combination, but also a volatile one. Silver crashed from $80 to $75 in a single day last week. That’s the kind of whiplash that can destroy portfolios.

The K-Shaped Reality

Here’s what really bothers me. The top 25% of earners saw wages grow 2.4% this year. The bottom 25%? Just 1.5%. The wealthiest 20% of households own 87% of all stocks. They’re the ones benefiting from this market rally. They’re the ones with home equity gains. They’re the ones still traveling and spending.

Everyone else? They’re cutting back, living paycheck to paycheck (about 30% of low-income households), and absorbing higher costs without wage increases to match.

What happens when an economy runs on wealth effects instead of paychecks? It becomes fragile. Extremely fragile. The moment the stock market corrects (and it will), that high-end spending evaporates. Fast. I’ve seen it happen. Premium retail traffic drops overnight. Luxury travel bookings vanish. The “wealth effect” that powered spending reverses instantly.

My advice:

Build cash reserves now (aim for 6-12 months of expenses). When you’re in a speculative economy, cash is your insurance policy.
Don’t chase precious metals at these levels. If you don’t already own gold or silver, these aren’t entry points. Wait for pullbacks (and there will be pullbacks). If you do own them, consider taking some profits and rebalancing.
Focus on companies with pricing power. In a world where inflation stays sticky and wage growth stays weak, you want businesses that can raise prices without losing customers. Think essential services, not discretionary spending.
Diversify currency exposure. With the dollar down 9%, holding some international assets or currencies isn’t crazy. It’s prudent.
Prepare for volatility. This market is built on speculation, not fundamentals. Retail traders control 20% of volume. That’s rocket fuel on the way up and a trapdoor on the way down.
Don’t Fight the Trend, But Hedge: The trend is up. Stay invested. However, seeing Gold and Stocks rise together is a warning sign of instability. Keep a portion of your portfolio (5-15%) in hard assets (commodities, real estate, or Bitcoin) as insurance against the falling dollar.
Watch the “Real” Gains: Don’t just look at the price of your stock portfolio. Ask yourself: “Can this money buy more stuff than it could last year?” With the cost of living rising, you need your investments to beat real inflation, not just the CPI number.
The “Melt-Up” Strategy: In a retail-driven market, logic sometimes takes a backseat to hype. Look for sectors with strong narratives (like AI or Green Energy metals like Copper/Silver) because that is where the retail money flows first.

Final thoughts:

We’re in an economy where growth and employment have divorced. Where spending happens without income growth. Where asset prices soar while real wages stagnate. This isn’t sustainable. Something has to give. The only question is when and how violently.

My advice? Enjoy the rally, but don’t believe it. Keep your winners, but tighten your stops. Build cash, reduce leverage, and remember that the best time to prepare for a storm is when the sun is shining.

Because right now, the sun is shining. But the clouds are gathering.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!

(2) The Most Important Finance News

In this issue we analyze:

(1) Silver and Gold Prices Rally: Opportunity or Warning Sign?

(2) GDP Data Reveals Troubling "Jobless Growth"

(3) The K-Shaped Economy Worsens

(4) Dollar Suffers Worst Decline Since 2017 (And It's Not Done Falling)

(5) Cathie Wood’s ARK funds are up 40% in 2025 (Beating the S&P 500 for the third straight year)

🤔 But first, how are you feeling about your finances?

1️⃣ Silver and Gold Prices Rally: Opportunity or Warning Sign?

Google search interest for "**silver**" officially hits its highest level on record

Silver prices have exploded over 150% this year, recently breaking through a 45-year ceiling and hitting new records above $80 per ounce. The white metal is now outshining even gold, which itself is up 70%.

Here’s what most people are missing about this rally. Silver isn’t just following gold higher. It’s got its own unique catalysts, and they’re both exciting and dangerous.

On one hand, you’ve got genuine industrial demand. Solar panel factories need silver. Electric vehicle manufacturers need it. AI data centers need it. Elon Musk himself warned that China’s upcoming export restrictions (starting January 1st) are “not good” because silver is critical for so many industrial processes.

On the other hand, you’ve got the meme stock crowd. Silver has a cult following that swells during periods of market frenzy. Remember 2021? Silver surged alongside GameStop during the retail trading mania, then crashed just as fast when the hype faded.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: volatility is silver’s middle name. It dropped from $80 to $75 in a single day last week. That’s a 6.25% haircut in 24 hours. Gold never moves like that.

What’s really driving this? According to Robin Brooks from the Brookings Institution, it’s the “debasement trade.” Investors fear that governments (especially the U.S.) are drowning in debt and will let inflation run hot to reduce the real burden of what they owe. So they’re fleeing into hard assets: gold, silver, platinum, even currencies from low-debt countries like Switzerland and Sweden.

Ed Yardeni (a market veteran I respect) points to stimulus effects stacking up in 2026: more Fed rate cuts, resumed bond buying, Trump’s tax cuts, potential “tariff dividend” checks. Translation: more money printing, more inflation risk, more reason to own things that governments can’t print.

My Advice: Silver is historically the "high beta" version of Gold—it moves faster and harder. When Silver goes parabolic, it often signals the end of a move, driven by FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).

If you are holding Silver, take some profits. Rebalance. Silver is notoriously volatile; it takes the stairs up and the elevator down. Don't chase it here if you aren't already in.

Set clear profit targets and stick to them. If you don’t own it, wait for a meaningful pullback before entering. And never, ever let silver be more than 5% of your portfolio. It’s a hedge, not a core holding.

2️⃣ GDP Data Reveals Troubling “Jobless Growth”

The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annual rate last quarter, blowing past expectations. President Trump took a victory lap. Wall Street analysts celebrated. But here’s what they’re not telling you: this growth is hollow.

The unemployment rate has climbed to 4.6%. Job creation, at best, has stalled. At worst, it’s collapsed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that recent data may be overstating job gains. Companies posted $166 billion in profits last quarter, but they didn’t hire. They did more with fewer workers.

25.3% of **unemployment** are now Americans with college degrees, a record high.

KPMG’s chief economist said, “I’ve never seen anything like it. To have this stagflation in the inflation and unemployment rate, and to not have it in growth is highly unusual, and something’s got to give.”

Here’s the puzzle: In a normal recovery, GDP growth shows up first in hiring, then in paychecks, then in consumer spending. This time, it’s reversed. Spending is here, but jobs aren’t. So how does an economy grow when households aren’t earning more?

The answer is uncomfortable. Households are spending without income growth. Real disposable income was flat (0% growth) last quarter. Americans made up the difference through savings drawdowns, credit card debt, or by absorbing costs they can’t defer.

Where did they spend? Healthcare. Americans spent more on healthcare last quarter than at any time since the Omicron wave in 2022. Outpatient care, hospital services, nursing facilities, expensive GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (like Ozempic and Wegovy). This wasn’t discretionary spending. This was necessity spending.

Why this matters: When spending is driven by necessity rather than rising paychecks, it behaves differently. It can’t sustain growth long-term. And when households are paying more for healthcare and insurance without wage increases to match, they’re not signaling confidence. They’re absorbing pressure.

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi put it perfectly: “It’s fragile because we’re not creating jobs. I mean, I don’t know how we can feel comfortable about the way things are going if we’re not creating jobs.”

The AI factor: Companies have learned to grow without hiring. They’re squeezing output from fixed or shrinking workforces, not expanding payrolls. And this is before AI’s full effects have set in. What happens when AI replaces even more jobs? Productivity booms, but who benefits? Shareholders and executives, not workers.

My takeaway: We have entered an era of Profitless Prosperity for workers. Companies are using AI and efficiency to grow revenue without hiring people. This disconnect is dangerous. An economy based on spending savings rather than earning income has a shelf life.

My Advice: You cannot rely on labor income alone anymore. You must become an owner. Own stocks, own a side business, own real estate. In a K-shaped recovery, capital gets rewarded, labor gets squeezed. Get on the capital side of the equation.

3️⃣ The K-Shaped Economy Deepens

Wage growth tells the whole story. The highest-earning 25% of workers saw wages grow 2.4% this year. The lowest-paid 25%? Just 1.5%. Meanwhile, the top 20% of households own 87% of all stocks. They’re benefiting from the market’s 18% gain. They’re enjoying home price appreciation. They’re still traveling and spending.

The bottom 80%? They’ve cut back. About 30% of low-income households are living paycheck to paycheck, according to Bank of America Institute.

This is the K-shaped economy in full effect. One group is thriving. The other is barely surviving. And the GDP number combines both into a single figure that hides the reality.

KPMG’s Diane Swonk explained it well: “When you’re carrying an economy by wealth effects and affluent households, as opposed to employment gains and generating new paychecks, you’re vulnerable if there’s any correction in equity markets.”

Think about that. When spending is supported by asset appreciation (stocks, homes), it persists only as long as markets cooperate. Spending driven by necessity (healthcare, childcare, elder care) cannot. The moment the stock market corrects, high-end demand evaporates. Foot traffic slows. Discretionary spending pulls back. Fast.

Swonk added: “When you divorce growth from employment gains, you’ve got a problem. And this is before the real effects of AI have even set in.”

What this means: If you’re in the top quartile of earners, you’re probably feeling pretty good right now. But recognize that your situation is not representative. If you’re in the bottom three quartiles, you’re experiencing a very different economy. And if you’re investing, understand that this bifurcation creates risk. Consumer spending can’t be sustained by just 20% of households forever.

4️⃣ Dollar Suffers Worst Decline Since 2017 (And It’s Not Done Falling)

The dollar is down about 8% this year, heading for its worst performance since 2017. Options traders are positioning for more downside in 2026.

Why is the dollar falling? Three reasons:

First, the Federal Reserve is cutting rates while many other central banks are done easing. That makes dollar-denominated assets less attractive.

Second, fiscal discipline is nonexistent. The U.S. government keeps running massive deficits, and investors are worried about debt monetization (letting inflation reduce the real burden of debt instead of cutting spending).

Third, trade tensions and tariff threats are creating uncertainty. When the world’s reserve currency becomes unreliable, investors look elsewhere.

The options market shows traders are the most bearish on the dollar in three months. Speculative traders flipped to betting against the dollar for the first time since October. That’s a meaningful shift.

But here’s the risk: The dollar is vulnerable to a sharp rebound if upcoming data prompts a hawkish reassessment of Fed expectations. If inflation stays sticky or growth accelerates further, the Fed might pause rate cuts, and the dollar could rally hard.

Takeaway: A weak dollar is great for US exports and multinational company earnings (which helps the stock market), but it is terrible for your purchasing power at the grocery store. This confirms why hard assets (Gold/Real Estate) are flying.

My advice: Consider holding some assets denominated in stronger currencies. The Swedish krona is the best performer among G-10 peers this year. Swiss franc has historically been a safe haven. Even the Canadian dollar strengthened after recent economic data.

This doesn’t mean sell all your dollars. It means don’t keep 100% of your wealth in dollar-denominated assets. Diversification across currencies is risk management, not speculation.

5️⃣ Cathie Wood’s ARK funds are up 40% in 2025 (Beating the S&P 500 for the third straight year)

Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF has climbed 40% this year, while the S&P 500 has risen 18%. It’s the third straight year ARK has beaten the market.

What’s she buying? Tesla, Roku, AMD, Shopify, Robinhood, and Coinbase dominate the portfolio. Recent purchases suggest Wood is making a big bet on a cryptocurrency rebound in 2026. In December, ARK aggressively bought crypto-exposed companies during a brutal selloff.

She’s also piling back into Chinese megacap tech: Alibaba (first purchase since 2021), Baidu, and WeRide (Chinese robo-taxi company).

Should you follow her? Maybe. Maybe not.

Here’s what investors forget about ARK: it doesn’t always beat the market, especially on the way down. In 2022 (the last year it underperformed), ARK’s Innovation ETF tumbled 67% compared to the S&P 500’s 19% drop. That’s a 48 percentage point difference. If you bought at the peak, you got crushed.

ARK’s strategy is high-risk, high-reward. When disruptive tech is in favor (like now), ARK soars. When it’s not (like 2022), ARK implodes.

My advice: If you believe in crypto’s rebound and Chinese tech’s recovery, ARK might make sense as a small, speculative position (5-10% of your portfolio max). But don’t mistake recent performance for guaranteed future returns. And never bet more than you can afford to lose.

💡 Andrew’s Analysis:

Notice the pattern across all these stories?

We’re in an economy built on speculation, not fundamentals. Stock prices rise without job growth. Consumer spending happens without wage increases. Precious metals surge on debt fears. The dollar falls on fiscal concerns. ARK crushes the market by betting on speculative tech.

This is what happens when central banks print trillions of dollars and governments run massive deficits for years. Money floods into assets (stocks, metals, crypto) instead of the real economy (jobs, wages, productive investment).

It works until it doesn’t. And when it stops working, it stops fast.

Your best defense? Diversification, cash reserves, clear exit strategies, and skepticism of anything that sounds too good to be true. Because right now, a lot of things sound too good to be true.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X/ Twitter, Instagram Threads, or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!

(3) Chart of the Day

The Housing Market Is Broken (And It’s About to Get Worse):

💡 Andrew’s Analysis:

This chart shows something unprecedented: home sellers now outnumber buyers by over 530,000, the largest imbalance ever recorded, according to Redfin.

Look at the blue line (sellers) and the red line (buyers). For most of the past decade, they moved together. When sellers increased, buyers increased. The market was balanced. Then 2020 happened. Buyers surged during the pandemic frenzy. Sellers stayed home. By 2021, there were more buyers than sellers, creating the bidding wars and price explosions you remember.

Now? It’s completely reversed. Sellers are flooding back into the market. Buyers have vanished.

Why are sellers selling?

Some bought during the pandemic and want to cash out their equity gains. Some need to relocate for work. Some are baby boomers downsizing. Some are investors who see storm clouds gathering and want to exit before prices fall.

Why are buyers disappearing?

Three reasons, all connected:

Mortgage rates, while down from their peak, are still around 6-7%. That’s double what they were in 2020-2021. A $400,000 mortgage at 3% costs $1,686/month. At 7%? It’s $2,661/month. That’s a $975 monthly difference, or $11,700 per year. For the same house.
Home prices remain near all-time highs. Even with rates falling slightly, affordability is worse than at any point since the 1980s. The median home price is still over $400,000 nationally, and much higher in desirable markets.
Economic uncertainty. When unemployment is rising, wage growth is flat, and headlines scream about recession risks, people don’t make the biggest financial decision of their lives. They wait.

What happens next?

This is basic supply and demand. When sellers outnumber buyers by half a million, prices have to fall. They have to. It’s not a question of if, but when and by how much.

During my time at Citi Bank, I watched the 2008 housing crash unfold. It didn’t happen overnight. It started with subtle signs: listings sitting longer, price reductions increasing, buyer traffic declining. Sound familiar?

This isn’t 2008. Banks aren’t making subprime loans to anyone with a pulse. Homeowners have equity, not negative equity. Foreclosures are low. But that doesn’t mean prices can’t fall. It just means they’ll fall for different reasons.

The pressure points:

Baby boomers aging out of their homes will increase supply over the next decade. There aren’t enough Gen Z and millennial buyers to absorb that inventory, especially at current prices.
Remote work flexibility means location matters less. Why pay $800,000 for a small house in San Francisco when you can buy twice the house in Austin for half the price?
Rising property taxes and insurance costs are making homeownership more expensive even if prices stay flat. In Florida (where I own rental properties), insurance has doubled or tripled in some areas. That’s killing affordability.

My advice:

If you’re a seller: List now. Seriously. This gap is only going to widen. Waiting for spring won’t help if spring brings even more inventory and fewer buyers. Price aggressively (not wishfully), make your home show-ready, and be prepared to negotiate.

If you’re a buyer: Be patient. This is a buyer’s market forming in real-time. You have leverage. Use it. Make lowball offers. Ask for concessions (closing costs, repairs, rate buydowns). Walk away if the numbers don’t work. There will be another house, and it’ll probably be cheaper in six months.

If you’re an investor: This is not the time to buy rental properties in most markets. Cap rates are compressed, financing is expensive, and the risk of price declines is real. Wait for distress. It’s coming.

If you own a home: Refinance if you can (rates around 6% are still historically high, but better than 7%+). Build equity by paying down principal faster. Don’t treat your home as an ATM. And remember that home equity is paper wealth until you sell. It can evaporate.

The bigger picture:

This housing imbalance connects to everything else we’ve discussed. The K-shaped economy means only wealthy buyers can afford today’s prices. Jobless growth means younger buyers can’t save for down payments. Dollar weakness makes building materials more expensive, supporting prices temporarily but hurting affordability.

Housing is where the economy lives. It’s the biggest purchase most people make. It drives consumer spending (furniture, appliances, renovations). It’s the primary source of wealth for middle-class families. When housing breaks, everything else follows.

Right now, housing is broken. Sellers are lined up. Buyers are staying home. Prices are still elevated. Something has to give.

The lesson: Markets that move too far in one direction always overcorrect in the other. Housing soared 40%+ during the pandemic. Now it’s payback time. Prices don’t have to crash to hurt. Even a 10-15% decline wipes out equity for recent buyers and creates a negative wealth effect that ripples through the economy.

Be prepared. If you’re counting on your home equity for retirement, reassess. If you’re planning to buy, wait for better opportunities. If you’re selling, move fast.

Because that gap between buyers and sellers? It’s going to get worse before it gets better.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X/ Twitter, Instagram Threads, or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!

(4) Stocks to Watch

1. Praxis Precision Medicines $PXMD up +13% on 12/29
2. Coupang $CPNG up +8% on 12/26
3. UiPath $PATH up +8% on 12/24
4. SanDisk $SNDK up +4% on 12/26
5. Freeport-McMoRan $FCX up +3% on 12/26

1) Praxis Precision Medicines $PXMD up +13% on 12/29

Praxis jumped 13% after BTIG named it a top pick for 2026 and more than doubled its price target. The clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focuses on developing therapies for central nervous system disorders. BTIG lifted its price target from $507 to $843, implying over 213% upside from current levels. That’s the kind of analyst call that makes traders sit up and pay attention. When a major firm triples down on a biotech stock, they’re signaling conviction about clinical trial results or regulatory approvals ahead. Praxis is working on treatments for epilepsy and other neurological conditions, areas with massive unmet medical need and billion-dollar market potential.

The risk? Clinical-stage biotechs are binary bets. One failed trial, and you can lose 50-80% overnight. But if their pipeline delivers, early investors could see life-changing returns.

2) Coupang $CPNG up +8% on 12/26

The South Korean e-commerce giant rallied 8% on Friday after announcing it identified the perpetrator behind a recent cybersecurity breach. More importantly, Coupang confirmed the leaked data affected only 3,000 accounts and was limited in scope, far less severe than initially feared. The stock gained another 2% on Monday after the company offered affected customers shopping vouchers worth $1.17 billion as compensation. Founder Kim Bom publicly apologized for the breach.

Here’s what matters: Coupang is South Korea’s answer to Amazon, dominating e-commerce and rapid delivery across the country. The data breach could have been catastrophic for customer trust and regulatory compliance. Instead, Coupang moved fast, limited the damage, compensated customers generously, and turned a potential crisis into a demonstration of accountability. That 10% total bounce reflects investors realizing this wasn’t an existential threat. Coupang’s fundamentals (growing market share, improving margins, expanding services) remain intact.

The largest e-commerce company in South Korea is trading near its lowest forward multiple ever.

3) UiPath $PATH up +8% on 12/24

UiPath surged 8% after announcing it will join the S&P MidCap 400 index. The agentic automation company specializes in robotic process automation (RPA), software that automates repetitive business tasks.

Why index inclusion matters: When a stock joins a major index, passive funds that track that index must buy shares. That creates automatic demand regardless of fundamentals. For UiPath, S&P MidCap 400 inclusion means billions in new capital flowing in from index funds. Beyond the technical boost, this signals UiPath has reached a level of size and liquidity that institutional investors require. The company’s AI-powered automation tools are becoming critical infrastructure for enterprises trying to reduce costs and improve efficiency. As AI continues replacing repetitive work, UiPath sits at the center of that transformation.

4) SanDisk $SNDK up +4% on 12/26

SanDisk jumped 4% after reports that Samsung and SK Hynix are raising prices for their fifth-generation high-bandwidth memory chips by nearly 20% for 2026 deliveries. SanDisk, which makes digital memory and storage products, benefits directly from industry-wide price increases.

Here’s the dynamic: Memory chips are commodities. When supply tightens or demand surges (like AI data centers needing high-bandwidth memory), prices rise across the entire industry. Samsung and SK Hynix setting 20% price increases signals strong demand and pricing power. SanDisk can follow with its own price hikes, expanding margins without losing market share. The AI boom requires massive amounts of memory for training and running models. That demand isn’t going away. Memory manufacturers are in a sweet spot where they can raise prices and still can’t meet demand fast enough.

5) Freeport-McMoRan $FCX up +3% on 12/26

The mining giant climbed 3% as gold, silver, and copper hit record levels. Freeport-McMoRan is one of the world’s largest producers of copper and also mines gold and molybdenum. When precious and industrial metals surge simultaneously, Freeport benefits across its entire portfolio. Copper’s 36% gain this year (its best since 2009) directly translates to higher revenues and margins. Gold’s 73% rally adds another profit stream.

The thesis here is simple: Global electrification and the energy transition require enormous amounts of copper. Electric vehicles use four times more copper than gas cars. Solar panels, wind turbines, and AI data centers are copper-intensive. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and debt fears are driving safe-haven demand for gold. Freeport sits at the intersection of both trends. As long as the AI infrastructure build-out continues and geopolitical uncertainty persists, miners like Freeport should keep benefiting.

💡 Andrew’s Analysis:

Look at what connects these winners. You’ve got three distinct themes playing out:

Theme 1: The AI Infrastructure Build-Out Continues Nvidia, SanDisk, and UiPath all benefit from AI’s insatiable appetite for compute power, memory, and automation. This isn’t speculation anymore. It’s capital deployment at scale. When memory chip makers can raise prices 20% and customers keep buying, that’s genuine demand, not hype.

Theme 2: Crisis Creates Opportunity Coupang turned a data breach into a demonstration of accountability. Markets punish first, ask questions later. These companies are showing that perceived crises often create attractive entry points for patient capital.

Theme 3: Commodities Reflect Real Economic Fears Freeport-McMoRan is benefiting from physical scarcity (copper, oil) and safe-haven demand (gold within Freeport’s portfolio). When investors flee financial assets for hard assets, miners and energy producers win.

Your takeaway: Follow the capital. Semiconductor memory suppliers have pricing power. AI automation companies are joining major indices. Crisis-hit consumer companies attract activist capital. Commodity producers benefit from supply constraints and geopolitical risk.

The risk everyone’s ignoring? Most of these gains assume the current environment persists: AI spending continues, commodity prices stay elevated, consumer companies can engineer turnarounds. If any of those assumptions break, these winners could become losers fast. Stay nimble.

👉 For daily insights, follow me on X /Twitter; Instagram Threads; Facebook; or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!

(5) Today’s Trade

eBay $EBAY: Unusual Call Activity Signals Bullish Bet

Traders are betting big on eBay with unusual call option activity showing roughly 6 calls purchased for every 1 put. The focus is on January 9th $87 strike calls, with volume hitting 2,465 contracts compared to just 4 open interest. Translation: nearly all this volume represents fresh positioning, not existing positions being closed.

Multiple blocks were bought throughout the session at $1.09-1.13 per contract, suggesting coordinated bullish intent. When you see consistent buying at similar prices across different times, that’s not retail gambling. That’s informed positioning.

What eBay does: The e-commerce marketplace connects buyers and sellers globally, competing with Amazon, Etsy, and Facebook Marketplace. eBay has pivoted toward higher-margin categories (collectibles, refurbished electronics, luxury goods) and improved its seller tools.

Why traders might be bullish: The January 9th expiration is just two weeks out, suggesting traders expect a near-term catalyst. Possibilities include:

Q4 holiday sales data beating expectations
Management guidance at CES (Consumer Electronics Show in early January)
Activist investor involvement (Target just attracted activist capital at similar valuations)
Technical breakout above resistance levels

The call option math: With eBay at $86.50, these $87 calls are basically at-the-money. Traders paid $1.09-1.13, meaning eBay needs to reach $88.09-88.13 by January 9th just to break even. For meaningful profit, they need eBay above $90, roughly a 4% move in two weeks.

My advice: Cautiously bullish, but this is a speculative play.

Here’s what makes this interesting. When I worked at JP Morgan, we tracked unusual options activity as a leading indicator. Large call purchases often preceded positive news or earnings beats. Someone with deep pockets believes eBay has a catalyst coming.

The bull case: eBay’s valuation is compressed relative to e-commerce peers. The stock is down from its pandemic highs but the company has improved margins and reduced its cost structure. Q4 is seasonally strong for eBay (holiday gift buying, collectibles trading). If results exceed already-low expectations, the stock could gap higher.

The bear case: Consumer spending is weakening, particularly among lower and middle-income households (eBay’s core users). The company faces intense competition. And short-dated options are lottery tickets. Most expire worthless.

Should you follow this trade? Only if you’re comfortable losing your entire investment. Options are leveraged bets with defined risk (you can only lose what you paid) but high probability of total loss. If you believe in eBay’s turnaround, buying shares is safer than buying two-week calls.

What I’d do: Watch eBay for follow-through. If the stock breaks above $88 with volume, that confirms the bullish thesis. If it struggles below $86, these calls will likely expire worthless. The options buyers are betting on a quick pop. You can wait to see if they’re right before committing capital.

Remember: unusual options activity is a signal, not a guarantee. Someone made a bet. That doesn’t mean they know something you don’t. It means they believe something you don’t. Big difference.

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(6) Fear & Greed Analysis

The current reading is neutral at 50, which sounds reassuring until you understand what it actually means. The Fear & Greed Index dropped from 57 a week ago and 55 at the previous close, showing a subtle shift away from greed.

Here’s what you need to understand: neutral doesn’t mean balanced. It means conflicted.

The index combines seven indicators, and right now they’re pulling in opposite directions. Some scream greed (market momentum, stock price strength, junk bond demand at extreme greed). Others scream fear (put and call options showing extreme fear, safe haven demand showing fear). The neutral reading is an average of contradictions.

Why this matters: When the market can’t decide whether to be fearful or greedy, it’s vulnerable to sudden moves in either direction. Neutral is actually more dangerous than extreme readings because there’s no consensus. Everyone’s positioned differently. That creates volatility.

So what does this all mean?

In my time on Wall Street, I learned that contradictory signals often resolve violently. The market hates indecision. When half the indicators say “buy” and half say “sell,” you get a tug-of-war that eventually snaps in one direction.

Here’s the real risk: The greed signals (momentum, breadth, junk bonds) are what’s visible on the surface. The S&P keeps hitting records. That feels good. But the fear signals (options positioning, safe haven demand) show what sophisticated traders are actually doing. They’re buying protection. They’re rotating to safety. They’re not as confident as the headlines suggest.

My interpretation? We’re in the late stages of a rally where retail and momentum traders keep pushing stocks higher while institutional money quietly hedges and reduces risk. That’s a classic topping pattern, not a healthy bull market.

My advice: Don’t get complacent just because stocks keep making new highs. The Fear & Greed Index at 50 with extreme fear showing up in options tells you smart money is worried. Tighten your stops. Take some profits. Build cash. You don’t need to sell everything, but you should be playing defense, not offense, when the market sends these kinds of mixed signals.

The transition from neutral to extreme fear can happen fast.

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(7) Technical Analysis

1) S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑

Trend: Positive The S&P 500 is technically in a Positive trend. The index is moving within a “rising trend channel,” which simply means over the last few weeks, the highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher. It recently broke through a “resistance” level at 6,900 points. Think of resistance like a glass ceiling—once you smash through it, that ceiling often becomes the new floor. However, the RSI (a momentum indicator) is showing a small warning sign, suggesting the rally might need to take a quick breather before going higher.

Verdict: Investors are optimistic.

2) Tech Stocks QQQ 0.00%↑

Trend: Neutral The Nasdaq-100 is currently Neutral and showing mixed signals. While the long-term trend is up, a “head and shoulders” pattern is developing. In technical analysis, this is a pattern that looks like a human head and shoulders, and it is famously bearish—it often predicts a drop in price. The index is sitting near a resistance level (a price where sellers usually step in).

Verdict: Be careful here. If the index breaks below support at 23,916, it could drop further. This is a “wait and see” moment—don’t go “all in” on tech until we see a clear breakout above 25,770.

3) Bitcoin $BTC

Trend: Negative Bitcoin is technically in a Negative trend for the short term. It is currently stuck in a “falling trend channel,” meaning investors are accepting lower and lower prices to get out of their positions. The chart shows increasing pessimism. There is “support” (a floor) at 86,000, but if it breaks that, it could tumble further.

Verdict: The momentum is down. Don’t try to catch a falling knife. Wait for the price to stabilize or break back above resistance at 93,400 before adding to your position.

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(8) It’s Time to Stop Insider Trading for Politicians

It’s time to stop insider trading for Politicians. They’re supposed to serve the public, not use their power to grow their stock portfolios.

Instead of protecting us, they’re profiting off us. Their job should be serving the people who elected them.

While hardworking Americans struggle to pay their bills, members of Congress are lining their pockets with insider information.

The solution is simple: It’s time to ban insider trading in Congress.

Do you support this? Sign and share this petition if you support a ban on members of Congress from trading stocks:

Change.org/BanInsiderTrades

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