💥Investing Insights & Market Analysis [Dec 2024, Issue 27]💥
💥PLUS: A correction Coming?, $1 Trillion Commercial Real Estate Crisis, New Drug To Stop Dementia, Stock Picks, Insider Trades, Technical Analysis, and Much More!
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👋 Good morning my friend! And welcome back to your favorite newsletter! I hope you’re having a great week!
Thank you for subscribing to our newsletter, which is dedicated to helping you become smarter with your money! Due to health issues, I needed to take some time off from writing our newsletter, but I’m back and will write regularly!
We have lots of important information to cover this week, but before we jump into it, here’s a quick announcement from today’s sponsor:
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📬In today’s issue, we discuss:
1) This Week's Market Analysis & Economic Outlook
2) Important Financial Events this Week
3) Important Charts & Numbers this Week
4) Money Lesson of the Week
🎯Premium Research & Analysis:
5) What I'm Investing In [Stock Picks]
6) Insider Trades (from Billionaires, Politicians and CEO's)
7) Trade of the Week [Options Flow Activity]
8) Stocks to Watch (and Catalysts)
9) Real Estate & Housing Market Insights
10) Interest Rate Predictions (and Mortgage Rate Updates)
11) Short-term Technical Analysis [S&P 500, Tech Stocks, Bitcoin]
12) Market Sentiment & Economic Outlook
13) Important Economic Events this Week
14) Important Earning Announcements (and stocks to watch)1. This Week’s Market Analysis & Economic Outlook:
The stock market took a beating to start the week, pulling back from record highs, as investors look ahead to CPI data this week.
The S&P 500 is up 27% in 2024, its best year since 2019. It also hit its 57th record high for the year last week, with the US stock market's market cap also hitting a record high of $60 trillion. Stocks have reached new highs repeatedly this year, with buyers stepping in to buy up shares whenever they have declined—the repeated record highs in the S&P 500 signal strong investor confidence.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen to new record highs thanks to a better-than-expected jobs report featuring a 227,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls. More jobs mean more people working and spending money, which is good for the economy.
Donald Trump’s election has also lifted stocks because of the prospect of lighter industry regulation and an extension of tax cuts from his earlier administration.
The markets are continuing on a “fear-of-missing-out” momentum (classic human psychology).
The market is also pricing in 90% odds of a 0.25% rate cut at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Dec. 18.
The VIX is at its lowest levels since July. A low VIX means investors are calm. It signals confidence
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
This record highs in stock prices reflects a strong market sentiment, where buyers are eager to invest, especially when prices dip. Continued job growth and low interest rates are the perfect recipe for a long bull market. Strong job growth translates to increased consumer spending (more people working = more disposable income). Confidence in the market fuels even more investment, creating a cycle of growth.
👉 For daily insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
🤔How do you feel about the markets this month?
2. Important Financial Events this Week:
This week, we’re analyzing:
1) Is a Correction Coming?
2) The $1 Trillion Commercial Real Estate Crisis
3) The New Drug That Could Stop Dementia
4) This New Battery with a 5,000-year Lifespan Could Be the Best Investment of the Decade
5) The IRS is About to Run out of Enforcement Money1️⃣ Is a Correction Coming?
The Shiller P/E ratio—a long-term measure of stock valuations—is sitting at 38.87. For context, the historical average is 17.17. This is more than double its historical average. The Shiller P/E has only crossed 39 twice before:
1999 Dot-Com Bubble: Stocks soared, only to crash. The S&P 500 dropped 49%, and the Nasdaq cratered 78%.
2022 Pre-Bear Market: The S&P 500 lost over 20%, and many investors were caught off guard.
Our current market rally is driven by a combination of factors, including the rise of artificial intelligence, better-than-expected earnings, and political catalysts.
But here’s the catch: Timing the market is impossible. Overvaluation doesn’t mean a crash is imminent. The market can stay overvalued for years.
If you wait for the “perfect” moment to invest, you could miss out. Over the last two years, despite fears of bank collapses and a recession, the S&P 500 has soared 56%. Sitting on the sidelines during a bull market means missing gains you might never make back.
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
Rather than trying to predict the next move, focus on what you can control: your strategy, your risk tolerance, and your long-term goals.
Cash is king: Keep some money liquid (ready to invest when things dip).
When corrections come, they create buying opportunities. Stocks of solid companies often go on sale during downturns. Be ready to pounce.
Look for companies with strong fundamentals, like consistent cash flow, low debt, and a history of profitability. Overvalued growth stocks are especially vulnerable in corrections.
Bear markets are tough, but they don’t last forever. On average, bear markets last 9.5 months, while bull markets last over 3.5 years. Staying invested during tough times lets you reap the rewards of long-term growth.
The biggest gains often come shortly after the worst crashes. If you sell everything, you risk missing the recovery. Stay invested.
Don’t panic sell. Don’t make emotional decisions.
Warren Buffett's golden rule: Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
2️⃣ The $1 Trillion Commercial Real Estate Crisis
The U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) market is facing a big problem. Over the next two years, more than $1 trillion in CRE loans will come due to be paid back, and small- and medium-sized banks face mounting risks.
The CRE market's troubles began with the global pandemic. The shift to remote work accelerated, leading to increased office space vacancies and falling property values.
Small and midsize banks are deeply exposed to CRE loans. For many, these loans make up 150% to 200% of their capital—an alarming figure compared to the largest banks with only 56% exposure. When property values fall, loan losses rise, eroding the capital cushions of these banks.
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
The pandemic fundamentally changed how we work, and office spaces are struggling to adapt. As loan losses mount, an increasing number of banks, mostly regional and community banks, risk having insufficient capital cushions. In a worst-case scenario, hundreds of banks could fail.
3️⃣ The New Drug That Could Stop Dementia
Dementia, including Alzheimer's, is a tough disease. And it costs the global economy over $1 trillion annually.
A new drug, ALPHA-003, has shown promising results in preventing the progression of dementia. It's aiming to stop dementia before it does too much harm.
In our brains, there are tiny structures called microtubules. Think of microtubules like the highways of your brain cells. They're crucial structures that keep neurons healthy and functioning. But in dementia, these highways start to crumble (like a road with potholes).
Inflammation is the villain in this story. It attacks key brain proteins (tau and neurofilaments) that normally protect these cellular highways. When these proteins go rogue, they create toxic tangles that destroy brain cells.
Filamon Limited's new drug, ALPHA-003, is like a superhero for your brain. It does something no other treatment has done: it might stop microtubule destruction in its tracks. How it works:
Binds to tau and neurofilament proteins
Prevents them from creating toxic tangles
Crosses the blood-brain barrier (a massive scientific challenge)
Filamon aims to start clinical trials in 2026. While it's not a guaranteed success, it represents a massive leap in understanding and potentially treating dementia.
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
Watch biotech stocks in neurodegenerative disease research.
Biotech is a high-risk, high-reward sector. Investors who bet early on companies like CRISPR Therapeutics or Vertex Pharmaceuticals reaped huge rewards as those firms advanced gene-editing technologies.
If individual stock picking feels risky, consider healthcare or biotech ETFs. Funds like iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF ($IBB) or SPDR S&P Biotech ETF ($XBI) can provide diversified exposure to promising innovations.
4️⃣ This New Battery with a 5,000-year Lifespan Could Be the Best Investment of the Decade
A team from the University of Bristol created a battery that can run for 5,000 years. Not a typo. Five. Thousand. Years.
Think of this battery like a tiny nuclear power plant (but way safer). They've trapped radioactive carbon-14 inside a diamond. This diamond protects us from radiation and converts the energy from carbon-14's decay into electricity. The Carbon-14 decays into nitrogen-14 through a process called beta decay, generating an endless supply of electrons that can be used to power electronics.
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
Watch for companies and startups developing applications for diamond batteries, from medical tech firms to aerospace manufacturers. This could create a whole new industry around long-lasting, low-energy devices.
This technology could disrupt traditional battery markets, creating massive opportunities in the energy storage sector. Companies involved in artificial diamond production, carbon isotope sourcing, and advanced material science could see explosive growth.
Governments could adopt diamond batteries for military-grade technologies, offering investors a chance to tap into lucrative defense contracts.
With the ability to power spacecraft indefinitely, space exploration could accelerate, driving demand for industries like aerospace engineering, satellite production, and interstellar communication.
5️⃣ The IRS is About to Run out of Enforcement Money
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is facing a funding crisis. And if the IRS loses this $20 billion, the federal deficit could swell by an estimated $140 billion over the next decade.
Here’s why: Without this money, the IRS can't hire new people or keep up its current level of work. This means the IRS will conduct fewer audits, particularly of wealthy individuals and large corporations. This could lead to billions in lost tax revenue—money that would otherwise help fund government programs, reduce borrowing, or lower the national debt.
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
With national debt soaring, the U.S. government is paying more in interest than ever before. Next year, debt service costs will exceed national security spending. Without proper tax collection, the government will have to borrow even more, worsening the problem.
If the government can’t collect taxes effectively now, it may need to raise taxes later. Prepare for potential changes in tax brackets, deductions, and credits.
With higher deficits, you might also see changes in bond yields, which could be an opportunity for investors if they anticipate the government's need to borrow more.
Other important headlines this week:
Amazon shareholders call on its Board to consider investing in Bitcoin.
UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson is shot and killed in New York City
China Announces a Ban on Rare Minerals to the U.S.
👉 For daily insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
3. Important Charts & Numbers This Week:
UnitedHealthcare has the highest claim denial rates by insurance companies:
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
The industry average denial rate is 16%, while UnitedHealthcare has the highest at 32%. When choosing an insurance provider, knowing their claim denial rates is crucial. Claim denial rates tell you how often an insurance company refuses to pay for medical services. Companies with higher denial rates might not be as reliable when it comes to approving claims. A high denial rate also means more hassle and potential out-of-pocket costs for you.
Understand Your Insurance: Always read the fine print of your policy. Know what's covered and what's likely to be denied.
If your claim is denied, learn how to appeal. Sometimes, it's just about persistence.
US Stocks are now trading at over 22x forward earnings versus 14x for International stocks, the widest valuation gap in history:
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
Since the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. stocks have steadily outperformed global markets. This reflects stronger U.S. corporate earnings growth, dominance in tech, and investor preference for dollar-denominated assets.
The S&P 500's valuation surged after 2020, driven by aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus and the dominance of high-growth tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft.
Higher P/E ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay a premium for U.S. stocks, reflecting confidence in their growth, profitability, and stability.
A higher P/E ratio doesn’t guarantee higher returns. It often means investors are paying a premium for future growth, which may not materialize.
The P/E ratio is a key metric for investors. It tells you how much you're paying for $1 of a company's earnings. A high P/E ratio can mean that stocks are overvalued, or it can mean that investors expect strong future growth.
If you're only investing in U.S. stocks, you might be missing out on cheaper opportunities abroad. Diversifying can reduce risk and potentially increase returns. Global markets are more reliant on traditional sectors like energy and materials, which may benefit from structural shifts like renewable energy or commodity demand.
Nvidia $NVDA is the best-performing S&P 500 stock over the last 5, 10, 15, and 20 years:
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
Over the past 20 years, NVIDIA achieved a staggering total return of +92,790%, driven by its leadership in graphics processing units (GPUs) and its pivotal role in AI, gaming, and data centers. It’s a reminder of the power of identifying companies with transformative technologies early, betting on industries that are shaping the future, remaining patient, and sticking to your strategy. Companies that reshape industries through innovation tend to deliver exponential returns.
Investing in high-growth stocks can yield substantial returns over the long term. These companies often dominate their industries, benefiting from technological advancements.
Look for companies with strong growth potential and a history of innovation. Sectors like technology and healthcare often offer high-growth opportunities.
While the winners here are inspiring, most investors can't reliably pick the next NVIDIA. Use a barbell strategy: invest in broad index funds while allocating a smaller portion to high-growth stocks.
Returns like these take decades to materialize. Stay invested, reinvest dividends, and avoid reacting to short-term volatility. Time is your best ally in investing. The earlier you invest, the more you benefit from compounding.
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4. Money Lesson of the Week:
Stop thinking about money as just dollars and cents. Start thinking about it in terms of time—the most limited resource you’ll ever have.
This shift in perspective is crucial because it helps us truly understand the true cost of buying things.
Money can be earned, invested, and grown, but time is irreplaceable. Every purchase you make costs time, and you’ll never get back.
If you apply this mindset consistently, you’ll spend less on things that don’t matter and save more for what does—like retirement, investments, or experiences that truly add value to your life.
Avoiding impulse buys and focusing on long-term goals can grow your wealth faster. Time saved now means more money compounding for your future.
Calculate the number of hours you’ll need to work to afford something. If it doesn’t feel worth the trade, skip it.
Thinking in time makes you focus on what really matters—your health, relationships, and personal growth—rather than material possessions.
Money’s just a tool. Time is the real currency. When you shift your thinking, you’ll spend smarter, save more, and focus on what really matters.
By valuing your time, you’ll not only grow your wealth but also live a richer, more fulfilling life.
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5. What I’m Investing in [Stock Picks]:
SoFi Technologies SOFI 0.00%↑ :
SoFi’s broad range of financial services and rapid customer growth make it a standout in the fintech space. With a 35% increase in membership year-over-year, the company is scaling quickly while improving profitability.
Growth Drivers:
Q3 revenue rose 30% to $697 million.
Adjusted EBITDA soared 90% to $186.2 million.
Forward P/E ratio of 78.1 reflects its strong growth potential.
Big Picture: As consumers shift toward digital banking, SoFi is well-positioned to dominate. It’s a stock for investors seeking exposure to the future of financial services.
Given its high valuation, consider buying in pieces to average down your average cost basis. Use market pullbacks to enter positions at attractive valuations.
Lululemon Athletica LULU 0.00%↑ :
Lululemon is a leader in the athleisure space with strong brand loyalty and innovative products. Lululemon’s technical fabrics and community-focused marketing give it a competitive edge.
Growth Drivers:
Solid five-year EPS growth projection of 14.6%.
A strong foothold in the fitness and wellness lifestyle market.
Continued global expansion, particularly in Asia.
Big Picture: While LULU trades at a higher valuation (forward P/E of 27.2), its growth trajectory justifies the premium. Investors should focus on the long-term potential as Lululemon innovates and captures a growing global fitness audience.
Wait for pullbacks to accumulate shares at a discount, and consider Lululemon as a core holding for growth-oriented portfolios.
Palantir Technologies PLTR 0.00%↑ :
Palantir is at the forefront of AI software development, providing tools that extract valuable insights from vast, unstructured data sources. The company serves both government and private sectors, offering solutions that boost productivity, enhance decision-making, and streamline operations.
Growth Drivers:
Government Partnerships Drive Growth: Palantir’s relationship with the U.S. military is a major growth engine. Revenue from U.S. government contracts surged by 40% year-over-year in Q3 2024, reaching $320 million. This highlights the trust and reliance major institutions place on Palantir's analytics.
Commercial Growth with Industry Leaders: Companies like Rio Tinto, BP, and APA are leveraging Palantir’s AI capabilities to improve safety, operational efficiency, and reliability. Partnerships with tech giants like Microsoft and Oracle are expanding Palantir's reach into commercial markets. U.S. commercial revenue rose by 54% in Q3 to $179 million.
Strong Financials: Palantir is not just growing—it’s profitable and cash-rich. With $4.6 billion in cash and investments and net income more than doubling to $144 million in Q3 2024, the company is well-positioned to sustain its growth trajectory.
Big Picture: As businesses and governments increasingly adopt AI, Palantir stands out as a leader in AI-powered decision-making. The growing need for data-driven insights places Palantir in a prime spot to dominate the AI software market in the long term.
Palantir's partnerships, especially with cloud providers, create a snowball effect for adoption. As its tools become indispensable, the company can leverage its profitable operations to scale aggressively. Buying now locks in exposure to this AI-driven growth story.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX 0.00%↑ :
Vertex combines cutting-edge science with a proven track record of delivering blockbuster drugs. The company is set for major catalysts in 2025, making it an exciting investment opportunity.
Growth Drivers:
Pipeline Catalysts:
The vanzacaftor triple-drug combo for cystic fibrosis (CF) offers improved dosing, stronger efficacy, and lower royalty costs. Expected FDA approval in early 2025 could make this Vertex’s most profitable CF therapy.
Suzetrigine, a non-opioid pain therapy, could revolutionize pain management and reduce dependency on opioids. With FDA approval likely by January 30, Vertex is preparing for a swift rollout.
Diverse Growth Prospects:
Vertex is tackling major unmet needs with drugs targeting kidney diseases and type 1 diabetes. If successful, these therapies could rival or exceed the commercial success of its CF drugs.
Financial Strength:
Vertex enjoys a monopoly in CF treatment and trades at a modest valuation (25x forward earnings), offering investors a rare blend of growth and profitability.
Big Picture: Vertex is not just a one-product company. With its focus on transformative therapies and strong execution, it has the potential to dominate multiple markets. The approval of suzetrigine could also give Vertex a foothold in pain management, a massive, underserved market.
Invest early to benefit from the upcoming FDA approvals and pipeline expansions. Vertex’s ability to generate cash flow while advancing its R&D efforts makes it a compelling long-term play.
GAP GAP 0.00%↑ :
Growth Drivers:
Gap’s stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.1, signaling undervaluation.
Same-store sales are rising across most of its brands, and debt reduction has strengthened its balance sheet.
Investments in TikTok marketing and high-visibility partnerships are increasing brand relevance.
Big Picture: Retail comebacks often deliver outsized returns as the market underestimates their growth potential. Gap’s focus on profitability and operational improvements is a clear signal to value investors.
Gap’s low valuation makes it a solid pick for investors looking for both growth and income. Consider holding for medium-term gains as it targets operating margins of 8%-10%.
6. Insider Trades from Billionaires, Politicians and CEO’s:
Microsoft Corp $MSFT
On December 6, 2024, it was reported that Josh Gottheimer, a Democrat House representative from New Jersey, made significant purchases of Microsoft Corp $MSFT stock. The trades, filed on November 18, 2024, involved buying between $1 million and $5 million worth of shares, indicating a strong belief in the company's future. Microsoft, a leading technology company known for its software, cloud services, and hardware products, has been a dominant player in the tech industry. Recent news includes the company's continued expansion into cloud computing with Azure, and its ongoing developments in artificial intelligence. These insider trades suggest confidence in Microsoft's long-term growth and innovation capabilities. For investors, this is a positive sign, as political insiders often have access to valuable information and trends that could impact the company's performance. Long-term investors should consider Microsoft's strong market position and continuous innovation as key factors for potential growth.
Shoe Carnival Inc $SCVL
On December 9, 2024, Wayne J. Weaver, the Chairman of the Board and a 10% owner of Shoe Carnival Inc $SCVL, purchased 285,500 shares at $33.91 per share, totaling approximately $9,681,305. This significant purchase increased his ownership by 3%, demonstrating strong confidence in the company's future. Shoe Carnival is a retailer specializing in footwear and accessories, with a focus on value and variety. The company has been expanding its online presence and improving its in-store experience to attract more customers. This insider trade indicates that Weaver believes the stock is undervalued and expects it to perform well in the future. Investors should view this as a positive signal, as insiders like Weaver have deep insights into the company's operations and growth prospects. Long-term investors might consider adding Shoe Carnival to their portfolio, given the positive outlook and potential for growth.
MSCI Inc $MSCI
On December 9, 2024, Henry A. Fernandez, the Chairman of the Board and CEO of MSCI Inc $MSCI, bought 2,900 shares at $612.80 per share, totaling around $1,777,119. MSCI is a leading provider of investment decision support tools, including indexes, portfolio risk and performance analytics, and ESG research. The company has been benefiting from the growing demand for ESG investing and the need for sophisticated investment tools. This insider purchase suggests that Fernandez is optimistic about the company's future prospects and believes the stock is currently undervalued. Investors should take note of this positive signal, as Fernandez's deep knowledge of the company and industry trends provides valuable insights. Long-term investors might consider MSCI as a strong addition to their portfolio, given its leadership in the investment tools market and growing demand for its services.
Strawberry Fields REIT, Inc $STRW
On December 9, 2024, Moishe Gubin, the CEO of Strawberry Fields REIT, Inc $STRW, purchased 250,567 shares at $11.16 per share, totaling approximately $2,795,202. This significant purchase increased his ownership by 56%, indicating strong confidence in the company's future. Strawberry Fields REIT is a real estate investment trust that focuses on acquiring and managing properties in the cannabis industry. The company has been expanding its portfolio and benefiting from the growing legalization and acceptance of cannabis. This insider trade suggests that Gubin believes the stock is undervalued and expects it to perform well in the future. Investors should view this as a positive signal, as insiders like Gubin have deep insights into the company's operations and growth prospects. Long-term investors might consider adding Strawberry Fields REIT to their portfolio, given the positive outlook and potential for growth in the cannabis industry.
Allegion Plc $ALLE
On December 9, 2024, John H. Stone, the President and CEO of Allegion Plc $ALLE, bought 7,500 shares at $140.70 per share, totaling around $1,055,246. This purchase increased his ownership by 7%, demonstrating confidence in the company's future prospects. Allegion is a leading provider of security products and solutions, including locks, doors, and access control systems. The company has been focusing on innovation and expanding its product offerings to meet the growing demand for security solutions. This insider trade indicates that Stone believes the stock is undervalued and expects it to perform well in the future. Investors should take note of this positive signal, as Stone's deep knowledge of the company and industry trends provides valuable insights. Long-term investors might consider Allegion as a strong addition to their portfolio, given its leadership in the security solutions market and growing demand for its products.
CVR Partners LP $UAN
Between November 14 and November 26, 2024, Carl Icahn, a renowned activist investor and founder of Icahn Enterprises, made several purchases of CVR Partners LP $UAN shares. The total amount spent on these purchases was approximately $3,343,206. CVR Partners is a fertilizer company that produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizers. Icahn's purchases indicate a strong belief in the company's future prospects, possibly driven by the growing demand for fertilizers in the agricultural sector. Icahn is known for his activist investing approach, where he takes significant stakes in companies to influence their management and strategy. His investment in CVR Partners suggests that he sees potential for growth and value creation in the company. Investors should view this as a positive signal, as Icahn's track record and influence can drive significant changes and improvements in the company. Long-term investors might consider adding CVR Partners to their portfolio, given the potential for growth and the backing of a prominent investor like Icahn.
7. Trade of the Week [Options Flow Activity]:
Bullish Activity on B&G Foods Inc BGS 0.00%↑
B&G Foods Inc $BGS, a company known for its diverse range of food products, has seen some unusual call activity recently. The stock price increased by $0.96 to $7.84, and there was a significant amount of call option trading, with about 8 calls being traded for every 1 put option. This high ratio of call options to put options suggests that investors are bullish on the stock, expecting it to rise in the future. The most active contract was the May 16th, 2025, 9.00 call option, with a volume of 1,166 contracts compared to an open interest of 271. This indicates that most of these trades were new positions, rather than existing ones being closed or adjusted. The majority of these call options were bought in various-sized blocks at the ask price of $0.30 each, which further supports the bullish sentiment.
Recent news for B&G Foods includes their ongoing efforts to expand their product offerings and improve their distribution channels. The company has been focusing on healthier food options and sustainable practices, which could attract more health-conscious consumers. This positive outlook, combined with the bullish options activity, suggests that investors are optimistic about the company's future growth prospects.
Analysis: The high volume of call options compared to put options indicates strong bullish sentiment towards B&G Foods. Investors are betting that the stock price will rise significantly by May 2025, which aligns with the company's strategic initiatives and market trends.
Bearish Activity on Ralph Lauren Corp RL 0.00%↑
Ralph Lauren Corp $RL, a well-known fashion brand, has seen some unusual put activity recently. The stock price decreased by $1.19 to $229.54, and there was a significant amount of put option trading, with about 3 puts being traded for every 1 call option. This high ratio of put options to call options suggests that investors are bearish on the stock, expecting it to fall in the future. The most active contract was the December 20th, 230.00 put option, with a volume of 1,019 contracts compared to an open interest of 78. This indicates that most of these trades were new positions, rather than existing ones being closed or adjusted. The majority of these put options were bought in various-sized blocks at the ask price of $5.00 each, which further supports the bearish sentiment.
Recent news for Ralph Lauren includes challenges in the retail sector, with changing consumer preferences and increased competition from online retailers. The company has been working on expanding its digital presence and improving its supply chain, but these efforts may take time to yield results. This bearish options activity suggests that investors are cautious about the company's near-term prospects.
Analysis: The high volume of put options compared to call options indicates strong bearish sentiment towards Ralph Lauren. Investors are betting that the stock price will fall by December 20th, which aligns with the company's current challenges and market trends.
8. Stocks to Watch (and Catalysts):
Tues 12/10 - Alaska Air Group ALK 0.00%↑
Alaska Air Group, a Seattle-based airline, saw its stock surge 11% after guiding higher fourth-quarter results and announcing a $1 billion buyback program. The company also plans new nonstop flights to Tokyo and Seoul from Seattle, expecting profits to grow by $1 billion through 2027. This news is significant for long-term investors as it indicates strong financial health and growth prospects. The buyback program suggests confidence in the company's future earnings, which could lead to higher stock prices and dividends.
Tues 12/10 - C3.ai $AI
C3.ai, an enterprise artificial intelligence software company, rose 15% after reporting a smaller-than-expected fiscal second-quarter adjusted loss of 6 cents per share, beating analyst estimates of a 16 cent per share loss. Revenue of $94 million also exceeded expectations of $91 million. This positive news indicates that C3.ai is managing its costs effectively and growing its revenue, which is crucial for its long-term sustainability and profitability. Investors should watch for continued revenue growth and narrowing losses as signs of a potential turnaround.
Mon 12/9 - MongoDB $MDB
MongoDB, a database company, added more than 9% after raising its fourth-quarter forecast. The company now expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of 62 cents to 65 cents, exceeding analyst estimates of 58 cents per share. Revenue is also expected to be higher, in the range of $515 million to $519 million, compared to the forecast of $509 million. This positive outlook suggests strong demand for MongoDB's database solutions, which is a good sign for long-term growth. Investors should keep an eye on the company's ability to maintain this momentum.
Mon 12/9 - Hershey $HSY, Mondelez International $MDLZ
Hershey shares jumped roughly 10.9% after Bloomberg News reported that Mondelez, the maker of Cadbury and Oreo, is attempting to buy Hershey again. This news put Hershey shares on pace for their best day since June 2016, while Mondelez fell about 2.3%. This potential acquisition could significantly impact both companies, with Hershey benefiting from a premium buyout and Mondelez expanding its product portfolio. Investors should watch for further developments in this potential deal.
Mon 12/9 - China-based stocks
U.S.-listed shares of China-based stocks like PDD Holdings $PDD and JD.com $JD each skyrocketed more than 10% after China’s Politburo pledged to ease its monetary policy stance to boost domestic growth in 2025. Alibaba $BABA and Tencent $TCEHY shares gained 7.5% and 6%, respectively, while automaker Nio $NIO rallied more than 12.3%. Trip.com $TCOM and Baidu $BIDU shares also jumped. This news is significant for investors as it indicates a more favorable economic environment in China, which could drive growth for these companies. Long-term investors should monitor China's economic policies and their impact on these stocks.
Mon 12/9 - SolarEdge Technologies $SEDG
SolarEdge Technologies shares jumped 11.7% after announcing it has started shipping its “USA Edition” home battery, designed to qualify for the domestic content bonus tax credit. This product is part of the Inflation Reduction Act, which incentivizes the development of green technology built with domestically produced materials. This news is positive for long-term investors as it highlights SolarEdge's commitment to innovation and sustainability, which could drive future growth.
Mon 12/9 - Palantir Technologies $PLTR
Palantir Technologies shares advanced more than 6% after expanding its contract with the U.S. Special Operations Command to develop artificial intelligence mission management. The contract is valued at nearly $37 million. This news indicates strong demand for Palantir's AI solutions in the defense sector, which is a positive sign for long-term growth. Investors should watch for continued contract wins and revenue growth.
Mon 12/9 - Reddit $REDDIT
Reddit, the social media platform, surged nearly 5% following an upgrade to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley. Analyst Brian Nowak believes Reddit has yet to reach its full potential, especially with U.S. ad revenue growth that could be up to six times faster than that of its peers. This upgrade reflects growing optimism in Reddit's ability to monetize its platform, which is encouraging for long-term investors. Investors should monitor the company's ad revenue growth and user engagement metrics.
Fri 12/6 - Lululemon $LULU
Lululemon, the athleisure retailer, soared more than 15% after topping Wall Street’s estimates for the fiscal third quarter and issuing in-line guidance for the holiday season. This performance suggests strong demand for Lululemon's products and effective management, which is encouraging for long-term investors. Investors should monitor the company's ability to maintain this momentum and adapt to changing consumer preferences.
Fri 12/6 - Petco $WOOF
Petco shares jumped around 8% after reporting a smaller-than-expected loss for the third quarter. The company recorded a loss of 2 cents per share, beating analyst estimates of a 4 cents per share loss. Revenue also exceeded expectations. This news indicates that Petco is managing its costs effectively and growing its revenue, which is positive for long-term investors. Investors should watch for continued revenue growth and improving financial performance.
Fri 12/6 - DocuSign $DOCU
DocuSign, the e-signature company, jumped more than 27% after forecasting fourth-quarter revenue between $758 million and $762 million, exceeding the consensus forecast of $756 million. The company’s third-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue also topped the Street’s estimates. This positive outlook suggests strong demand for DocuSign's e-signature solutions, which is encouraging for long-term investors. Investors should monitor the company's ability to maintain this growth and expand its market share.
Fri 12/6 - Victoria’s Secret $VSCO
Victoria’s Secret, the lingerie company, jumped 11.6% following its better-than-expected third-quarter results. The company posted a loss of 50 cents per share on $1.35 billion in revenue, beating analyst estimates. Victoria’s Secret also raised its full-year outlook. This news indicates that the company is on a path to recovery, which is positive for long-term investors. Investors should watch for continued improvement in financial performance and market position.
Fri 12/6 - Asana $ASANA
Asana, the work management software company, rallied 43.5% after posting a smaller-than-expected adjusted loss. The company reported a loss of 2 cents per share on $184 million in revenue, beating analyst estimates. This performance suggests that Asana is managing its costs effectively and growing its revenue, which is encouraging for long-term investors. Investors should monitor the company's ability to maintain this growth and achieve profitability.
Fri 12/6 - Rubrik $RUBRIK
Rubrik, the data security company, surged 20.4% after posting a smaller-than-expected loss in the third quarter. The company reported a loss of 21 cents per share, beating analyst estimates of a 40 cents per share loss. Revenue also exceeded expectations, coming in at $236 million. This news indicates that Rubrik is on a path to profitability, which is positive for long-term investors. Investors should watch for continued revenue growth and improving financial performance.
Fri 12/6 - Hewlett Packard Enterprise $HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise shares advanced 10.6% after reporting a top- and bottom-line beat in the fiscal fourth quarter. The company reported adjusted earnings of 58 cents per share on revenue of $8.46 billion, exceeding analyst estimates. This performance suggests strong demand for Hewlett Packard Enterprise's products and effective management, which is encouraging for long-term investors. Investors should monitor the company's ability to maintain this growth and adapt to changing market conditions.
Fri 12/6 - Ulta Beauty $ULTA
Ulta Beauty shares rose nearly 12% after the beauty retailer’s third-quarter earnings and revenue beat expectations. The company earned $5.14 per share on $2.53 billion in revenue, above consensus estimates. Ulta also raised its forecast for the full year. This news indicates that Ulta Beauty is managing its costs effectively and growing its revenue, which is positive for long-term investors. Investors should watch for continued revenue growth and improving financial performance.
Fri 12/6 - GitLab $GTLB
GitLab, the developer tools software maker, jumped nearly 11% following its third-quarter earnings and revenue beat. The company reported adjusted earnings of 23 cents per share on $196 million in revenue, exceeding consensus estimates. GitLab also named Bill Staples as its new CEO. This news suggests that GitLab is on a path to growth, which is encouraging for long-term investors. Investors should monitor the company's ability to maintain this momentum and achieve profitability.
Thurs 12/5 - American Airlines $AAL
American Airlines shares rose 16.8% after announcing it’s going to drop Barclays as a credit card partner, making Citi its sole partner. The deal with Citi is expected to take effect in January 2026. This news is significant for investors as it indicates a potential revenue boost for American Airlines. Long-term investors should monitor the impact of this deal on the company's financial performance and market position.
Thurs 12/5 - Five Below $FIVE
Five Below, the discount retailer, surged more than 10% after beating Wall Street estimates on the top and bottom lines in the third quarter. The company reported adjusted earnings of 42 cents per share on revenue of $844 million, exceeding analyst estimates. This performance suggests strong demand for Five Below's products and effective management, which is encouraging for long-term investors. Investors should watch for continued revenue growth and improving financial performance.
Thurs 12/5 - ChargePoint Holdings $CHPT
ChargePoint Holdings, the electric vehicle charging station operator, surged more than 10% after reporting third-quarter revenue of $99.6 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $89.8 million. The company also reported a smaller year-over-year net loss. This news indicates that ChargePoint is growing its revenue and managing its costs effectively, which is positive for long-term investors. Investors should monitor the company's ability to maintain this growth and achieve profitability.
Thurs 12/5 - Verint Systems $VRNT
Verint Systems shares surged around 23% after posting better-than-expected adjusted earnings and revenue for the third quarter. The company earned 54 cents per share on revenue of $224.2 million, exceeding analyst estimates. This performance suggests strong demand for Verint's products and effective management, which is encouraging for long-term investors. Investors should watch for continued revenue growth and improving financial performance.
Thurs 12/5 - Crypto stocks
Stocks tied to cryptocurrencies rallied as bitcoin topped $100,000 for the first time. MicroStrategy $MSTR popped nearly 8%, while Robinhood Markets $HOOD gained 6%. Mara Holdings $MARA and Riot Platforms $RIOT added 5% and 6%, respectively. This news is significant for investors as it indicates growing interest and investment in cryptocurrencies. Long-term investors should monitor the performance of these stocks and the broader cryptocurrency market.
Wed 12/4 - Roku $ROKU
Roku shares jumped 11% after Needham analyst Laura Martin said the streaming company will likely be bought for a “large premium” over the next year as Republicans take control of regulatory agencies. This news indicates potential for a significant increase in Roku's stock price, which is positive for long-term investors. Investors should monitor developments in the regulatory environment and their impact on Roku's market position.
Wed 12/4 - Salesforce $CRM
Salesforce shares popped about 8% after posting a third-quarter revenue beat and giving subscription revenue numbers that exceeded analysts’ estimates. The company reported $9.44 billion in revenue, exceeding analyst estimates of $9.35 billion. This performance suggests strong demand for Salesforce's products and effective management, which is encouraging for long-term investors. Investors should watch for continued revenue growth and improving financial performance.
Wed 12/4 - Pure Storage $PSTG
Pure Storage, the data storage management company, rallied nearly 24% after announcing a contract with an unnamed “top four” artificial intelligence hyperscaler and beating Wall Street’s estimates for the fiscal third quarter. The company also highlighted that it won a contract with a major tech company. This news indicates that Pure Storage is experiencing strong demand for its products, which is positive for long-term investors. Investors should monitor the company's ability to maintain this growth and achieve profitability.
Wed 12/4 - Marvell Technology $MRVL
Marvell Technology, the chipmaker, surged 23% after beating third-quarter estimates and issuing better-than-expected revenue guidance. This performance suggests strong demand for Marvell's products and effective management, which is encouraging for long-term investors. Investors should watch for continued revenue growth and improving financial performance.
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9. Real Estate & Housing Market Insights:
Real Estate Market This Week:
Median Listing Prices: Increased for the first time in 26 weeks, up 0.2% year-over-year.
New Listings: Plummeted 29% during Thanksgiving week, largely due to the holiday.
Active Inventory: Increased, with for-sale homes 25.9% above year-ago levels, marking the 56th consecutive week of growth.
Time on Market: Homes spent 9 days more on the market compared to last year, indicating a slower market.
U.S Home Sales on track for worst year since 1995:
There is now an 86% chance of an interest rate cut at this month's FOMC meeting:
2025 Housing Forecast:
Price and Sales: Home prices are expected to appreciate by 3.7% in 2025, slightly less than in 2024, due to increasing inventory. Sales are forecasted to increase by 1.5%, reaching 4.07 million transactions, driven by modest rate decreases and pent-up demand.
Inventory: A significant increase in for-sale inventory by 11.7% is anticipated, suggesting a move towards a more buyer-friendly market. This could be the first full year of a balanced market since 2016.
Construction: Single-family housing starts are projected to see a 13.8% increase, adding 1.1 million units, which should help address the housing shortage.
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10. Interest Rate Predictions: Rates will Drop
Mortgage rates have improved recently, and I predict they will continue to decline. Currently, mortgage rates sit at around 6.7%, and they could see additional decreases if employment data continues to underperform.
Mortgage rates have been on a downward trend, influenced by the yield on 10-year Treasurys, which has also decreased. This trend indicates that mortgage rates are likely to follow suit.
The holiday season may temporarily boost mortgage rates as buyer activity slows down. However, if you find a favorable rate, it’s wise to lock it in.
The 30-year mortgage is now 6.72%, which is -0.14 lower today than it was a week ago, -0.20 lower today than it was a month ago, and -0.37 lower today than it was a year ago:
11. Short-Term Technical Analysis [S&P 500, Tech Stocks, Bitcoin]:
S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑ (Short-term, 1-3 months): Positive
The S&P 500 is currently trending upwards in a "rising trend channel" over the medium to long term. This means investors have consistently been willing to pay more for the stocks in this index, showing confidence in the market's growth. There's no clear upper limit or resistance stopping the price from going higher, suggesting the potential for further growth. Given this pattern, the outlook for the next six months is positive.
Recent News/Catalysts: The market has been buoyed by steady economic data, including job growth and consumer spending. With interest rates expected to stabilize or slightly decrease, this could continue to fuel investment in equities, particularly in sectors like technology and healthcare.
Tech Stocks QQQ 0.00%↑ (Short-term, 1-3 months): Positive
The Nasdaq-100 is also in a rising trend channel, similar to the S&P 500, indicating that investors are increasingly optimistic about tech and growth stocks. No resistance is visible, which means there's room for the price to rise. However, there's a warning sign: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a divergence from the price, moving downward while the price goes up. This could mean the market is overbought and might correct downwards soon. Despite this caution, the overall technical assessment remains positive for the medium term.
Recent News/Catalysts: Recent earnings from major tech companies have been strong, and there's ongoing interest in AI and cloud computing.
Bitcoin $BTC (Short-term, 1-3 months): Positive
Bitcoin has recently broken through the upper boundary of its rising trend channel, which generally indicates a strong bullish trend. However, this could also mean we're due for a short-term correction as prices might have climbed too fast. Bitcoin has hit a target of $84,547 from a previous bullish signal, but there's still no visible resistance to cap its rise. If there's a drop, support might be found at about $70,000. One thing to note is the volume doesn't fully match the price movements, which might suggest the trend's strength is waning, potentially signaling a trend change.
Recent News/Catalysts: The crypto market has seen continued institutional interest, with more firms entering the space through ETFs and direct investments. Regulatory news, like SEC decisions on crypto products, could significantly impact Bitcoin's price.
Analysis: Bitcoin's volatility is both its allure and its risk. The breakout could be a sign of more gains, but investors should be wary of the volume divergence, which might indicate less conviction behind the price moves.
12. Market Sentiment & Economic Outlook:
Fear & Greed Index = Neutral
The current reading of 50 suggests a balanced sentiment in the market. This neutrality indicates that investors are neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. However, looking back at previous weeks, the index was higher at 56 a month ago and 62 a year ago. This decline in sentiment could hint at growing caution among investors as they react to economic data and geopolitical events.
AAII Sentiment Survey — 6-Month Outlook = Optimistic
The recent surge in bullish sentiment reflects a recovery in investor confidence following economic data that suggests stability in hiring and wage growth. This optimism is crucial as it often precedes upward movements in stock prices. The decrease in neutral sentiment to 21.0% and bearish sentiment to 30.7% further emphasizes this shift towards a more positive outlook among individual investors.
The broader economic context shows that hiring rebounded in November, with hourly wages rising by 4.0%, outpacing inflation rates. This positive labor market data supports consumer spending, which is vital for economic growth and can enhance investor confidence.
Economic Indicators & Market Signals = Stable
Our current environment is characterized by positive indicators balanced by cautionary signals. The market appears stable in the short term.
Good Indicators: Steady home price growth, moderate inflation, low unemployment, and steady economic growth are all positive signs for the economy.
Bad Indicators: The inverted yield curve and moderate consumer pessimism are concerning, as they suggest potential economic slowdowns.
Neutral Indicators: Low market volatility and moderate Treasury yields are neither strongly positive nor negative but require careful monitoring.
13. Important Economic Events this Week:
Wednesday - OPEC Monthly Report
The OPEC Monthly Report provides insights into oil production levels, demand forecasts, and pricing trends. This report is crucial because oil prices significantly impact inflation and economic growth. A rise in oil prices can lead to increased transportation and production costs, which may contribute to higher consumer prices.
If OPEC signals a production cut or an increase in demand forecasts, it could lead to higher oil prices, impacting inflation rates and consumer spending. Conversely, if they project lower demand or increased production, it may stabilize or lower prices, easing inflationary pressures.
Wednesday - November CPI Inflation Data
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation by tracking changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This data is vital as it informs the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
A higher-than-expected CPI could signal persistent inflation, prompting the Fed to maintain or increase interest rates. Conversely, lower inflation might support rate cuts, fostering economic growth.
Thursday - November PPI Inflation Data
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation by tracking changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. This data is vital as it informs the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
A higher-than-expected CPI could signal persistent inflation, prompting the Fed to maintain or increase interest rates. Conversely, lower inflation might support rate cuts, fostering economic growth.
Thursday - Initial Jobless Claims Data
This report tracks the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It serves as a measure of labor market health.
Rising jobless claims can indicate economic weakness and may lead to reduced consumer spending. Conversely, stable or declining claims suggest a robust labor market, supporting consumer confidence and spending.
Friday - US Import/Export Price Index Data
This data measures changes in the prices of goods imported to and exported from the U.S., providing insights into trade dynamics and inflation pressures.
Changes in import/export prices can affect trade balances and currency strength. A significant increase in import prices may indicate rising costs that could contribute to domestic inflation.
14. Important Earnings Announcements this Week:
The most anticipated earnings releases for the week of December 9, 2024 are Broadcom $AVGO, GameStop $GME, C3.ai $AI, Adobe $ADBE, Oracle $ORCL, Macy's $M, MongoDB $MDB, Costco Wholesale $COST, AutoZone $AZO, and Planet Labs $PL.
Here’s what you need to know for each:
Broadcom ($AVGO) – Broadcom is benefiting from strong demand for AI chips and its strategic partnerships with companies like Apple. However, a slowdown in global semiconductor demand or a delay in cloud and data-center expansion could be risks to watch. Positive guidance on AI and cloud could drive the stock higher.
GameStop ($GME) – GameStop’s future depends on its CEO Ryan Cohen’s ability to transform the company towards e-commerce. While there's potential for growth, continued losses and consumer spending slowdowns remain risks. Watch for any updates on strategic shifts, as strong news could lead to volatility-driven opportunities.
C3.ai ($AI) – C3.ai is positioned well within the booming AI space, with strong demand across industries like defense and healthcare. However, its lack of profitability and competition could limit growth. Focus on earnings results and customer acquisition updates for clues on long-term potential.
Adobe ($ADBE) – Adobe is riding high on its AI-driven creative tools like Photoshop and Illustrator, which are seeing strong adoption. On the downside, slower subscription growth or rising operational costs could drag on performance. Keep an eye on subscription numbers and AI integration news for a better sense of growth.
Oracle ($ORCL) – Oracle’s cloud and AI offerings are performing well, particularly with its enterprise clients. However, it faces stiff competition from tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft. Strong cloud growth and good guidance on its AI prospects could push Oracle’s stock higher.
Macy's ($M) – Macy's could see a boost if its holiday sales are strong, alongside its efforts to control costs. On the flip side, any weakening consumer spending could harm the stock. Pay attention to guidance around holiday sales and inventory management for insights into its short-term outlook.
MongoDB ($MDB) – MongoDB is benefiting from the growing demand for cloud-based database solutions, but its high valuation and potential for slower-than-expected growth could pose risks. Strong earnings or updates on customer expansion could confirm its long-term growth story and provide entry points for investors.
Costco Wholesale ($COST) – Costco remains a reliable performer due to strong membership renewals and e-commerce growth, making it a good defensive play. If consumer sales slow down, Costco could face challenges, but it remains a solid pick in uncertain times. Earnings and membership growth guidance will be key to watch.
AutoZone ($AZO) – AutoZone benefits from a long-term trend of consumers holding onto their vehicles longer, driving demand for car repairs. Competition from online retailers and a potential decline in repair demand could hurt the stock. Watch for strong sales numbers in its earnings report for potential upside.
Planet Labs ($PL) – Planet Labs is seeing growth in its satellite data business, especially in sectors like agriculture and defense. However, it still faces challenges with profitability and slow adoption of its technology. Any updates on government contracts or profitability could serve as catalysts for the stock.
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