Is the economy actually better?
That’s the question I keep getting, and this week the honest answer depends on which economy you’re standing in.
Here’s what the last two weeks handed us. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.64, its best week since April, adding $2.5 trillion in value. The Dow set its 24th record of the year. Then on Wednesday, August 12, the inflation report came in at 3.4% for the year, matching forecasts and cooling from 3.5%, with core inflation at 2.5%.
Now the other economy. We lost 23,000 jobs in July when forecasters expected a gain of 83,000. May and June got revised down by another 103,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, but only because people stopped looking for work. And wages now take home 43 cents of every dollar of national income, the smallest share since records began in 1929.
Same country. Same two weeks.
And look what happened next. Oil has run to $91 a barrel as the Iran blockade drags on, the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, and the market now puts a 64% chance on a rate hike before the end of this year. Six days after a cool inflation print, traders are pricing the opposite.
In about twenty years around finance, the thing I keep relearning is that markets move before life does. Stocks trade the cost of money before they trade the economy, which is exactly why bad news for workers turned into a good week for asset prices.
This issue explains the K-shaped economy, disappearing entry-level jobs, six stock ideas, and one options trade worth watching.
Here’s what else is in this issue: Why the wealth-gap debate depends entirely on which year you start counting. What 43% of CEOs just said out loud about entry-level jobs. Why a brand-new home now costs less than a used one for the first time since 1974. And what the biggest investors are quietly buying while everyone watches the record close.
📬 Here’s what’s in this issue:
Part I — Big Picture (What You Need To Know)
(1) Market & Economy Breakdown
(2) 5 Things You Need To Learn
Part II — What The Market Is Telling Us
(3) Market Psychology, Signals, and What’s Next
(4) Interest Rates & Real Estate
Part III — Investment Research & Analysis
(5) Insider Trading Alerts
(6) My Stock Picks & Research
(7) The Smartest Trades I See Right Now
Part IV — Financial Playbook (What To Do)
(8) A Valuable Lesson (People Learn Too Late)
(9) My Tips & Actionable Advice
(10) You Asked, I Answered
Part I: Big Picture (What You Need To Know)
(1) Market & Economy Breakdown (And What It Means For You)
What happened, why it matters, and what’s next.
Markets
The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 7,691.76. It’s fallen for three straight sessions, but it is still up 12.4% this year.
Technology stocks led Tuesday’s drop. The semiconductor index fell 5%, Micron fell 7%, Nvidia fell 2.3%, and Sandisk fell 9%. The market is questioning how much good news is already built into AI stock prices.
Company results remain strong. 86% of the S&P 500 companies that reported second-quarter results beat earnings estimates. Profit growth is close to 50%, and it remains strong even after removing large investment gains reported by Alphabet and Amazon.
Berkshire Hathaway became a net buyer of stocks for the first time in over three years. It bought $23.5 billion of stocks during the quarter, sold $3.7 billion, and still held $365 billion in cash and Treasury bills.
Gold closed near $4,345 an ounce Tuesday. It was below its recent high but it’s still high enough to show demand for protection against inflation, war, and currency risk.
Economy
The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July when economists expected a gain of 80,000. May & June were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs.
Unemployment fell to 4.1% but the labor-force participation rate fell to 61.4%. That means fewer adults are working or actively looking for work. A lower unemployment rate is less encouraging when it falls because people leave the labor force.
July inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%. Core inflation slowed to 2.5% from 2.6%. The report reduced the chance of a September rate increase but didn’t prove inflation is back at the Fed’s 2% goal.
Oil and long-term interest rates moved higher again. Brent oil closed at $91.02 Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.70%, and the 30-year yield briefly reached 5.34%, its highest since 2007. Tuesday’s market close showed how quickly inflation worries can return.
Money, work, and housing
Wages and salaries now account for about 43 cents of every dollar of national income, near the lowest share in records that begin in 1929. A broader measure that includes employer benefits also fell to a record low in its data series. Both measures tell us that business income has grown faster than worker pay.
Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year mortgage rate eased from 6.69% to 6.67%. Daily quotes moved higher again after the bond selloff, which means buyers should not assume one small weekly decline will last.
What This Means for Us
The stock market is not the economy, and this week made that difference easy to see. Stocks reached a record after a weak jobs report because investors believed slower hiring would reduce the chance of a September rate increase. Workers saw the same report and saw fewer jobs. The market was reacting to the future cost of money. Households were reacting to the present cost of living.
The rally still has real support though. Most large companies are beating earnings estimates, profit growth is broad, and several sectors outside the biggest technology names are contributing. That matters because a market supported by rising profits is stronger than a market supported only by hope about interest rates.
The risk is price. The S&P 500 is near a record, investors moved quickly from fear toward greed, and many AI stocks already assume years of excellent results. Tuesday showed how little room some of those stocks have for doubt. One rise in oil and bond yields was enough to push the semiconductor index down 5%.
My Fed call also needs an update. July inflation came in lower, so September is not the timing I expected. I still believe another increase is likely later because inflation remains above target and expensive oil can raise the cost of transportation, food, and goods. That view changes if inflation keeps falling for several months and long-term Treasury yields fall with it.
For investors, the answer is not to sell everything because the job market weakened. It’s also not to chase stocks because they reached a record. Keep long-term contributions moving on a schedule. Add more slowly when prices rise faster than earnings. Keep emergency cash separate so a job loss or major bill does not force you to sell investments at a bad time.
Watch three things next. First, the S&P 500 needs to hold the old 7,570-to-7,594 breakout area. Second, oil needs to stop rising before it feeds back into inflation. Third, earnings forecasts need to stay strong. If all three hold, the long-term bull case remains healthy. If oil and yields keep rising while company forecasts fall, the short-term risk becomes much more serious.
(2) 5 Things You Need To Learn
The biggest ideas & trends to pay attention to.
📬 Today we analyze:
1) America’s K-Shaped Economy
2) Entry-Level Jobs Are Disappearing
3) The Next Inflation Shock Is Forming in the Pacific Ocean
4) New Homes Are Now Selling For Less Than Existing Homes
5) The Anti-AI Trade
But first — Does the economy feel better to you than it did a year ago?
America’s K-Shaped Economy
The Treasury Secretary says the wealth gap is closing; the food banks say otherwise. Scott Bessent told CNBC he was sick of hearing about the K-shaped economy, where the rich get richer while everyone else falls behind, and declared it over. Hilton’s CEO backed him up, saying spending looks more like a “C” now, with every income level traveling and staying at his hotels.
The data can support Bessent, if you pick the right starting year. Measured from 2019, the poorest 20% of Americans grew their net worth 46%, faster than the upper-middle 20%, per the New York Fed. Spending growth between rich and poor households is the narrowest in three years, per PNC, and Bank of America found essentially no gap in earnings growth last month.
Now move the starting line to 2023 and the same data shows the opposite. Since then, the bottom 20% grew their wealth 13% while the top 1% grew theirs 30%. Catholic Charities Dallas went from serving 9 million meals between summer 2024 and mid-2025 to over 15 million since. The 211 helpline network made 6 million housing-assistance referrals last year, and corporate profits hit a record 13.9% of economic output while Procter & Gamble’s CFO says lower-income households are living paycheck to paycheck. The trick is the base year. Check the starting year every time someone declares the wealth gap dead or exploding, because the starting year usually decides the conclusion before you even look at the data.
The K-shaped economy is the new normal. Across Europe and Africa, the wealth disparity is insane, and this will happen to the US over the coming decades. The American middle class is shrinking.
I wrote this on X:
A family of four now needs $178,000 to $301,000 a year to get by in America. Meanwhile, the median U.S. household only earns $83,730. The American Dream now requires an income most will never earn.
The letter K, or any other letter, will never fully describe a $31 trillion economy. But the divide that matters isn’t rich versus poor on a chart. It’s asset owners versus wage earners. If your entire financial life runs through a paycheck, this economy is quietly working against you. If part of it runs through assets, it’s working for you. Choose your side on purpose, because if you don’t choose, you’re on the paycheck side by default.
The K-shaped economy is the new normal. Ownership and pay are moving at different speeds.
Entry-Level Jobs Are Disappearing
When more than 25 million Americans under 35 were reported to be living with their parents, I wrote on X, “Y’all aren’t ready for what’s coming.” And the latest CEO survey helps explain why I said it.
An Oliver Wyman and New York Stock Exchange survey polled global CEOs and found 43% plan to cut junior roles over the next two years, up from 17% a year ago. Only 17% are shifting hiring toward junior positions; 30% are moving toward mid-level hires, triple last year’s share; and 74% are freezing or reducing headcount overall, with tech, media, and telecom cutting deepest. The report’s conclusion is blunt, the CEOs with the longest planning horizons see a smaller, AI-built company as the destination, not a cost-cutting phase.
Don’t mistake this for recession panic though. The Conference Board’s CEO confidence reading rebounded to 52 in the third quarter, back above the neutral line after sinking to 47 in Q2. Executives feel better about the economy and are still cutting entry-level jobs, which tells us the redesign is permanent, not temporary.
Here’s the strangest part though: they’re cutting before the technology has proven itself. Only 27% of CEOs say their AI investments met or exceeded return expectations, down from 38% a year ago, and over half say it’s too early to judge. Companies are removing the jobs that train their own future mid-level workforce on a bet that hasn’t paid off yet. The New York Fed has already found the job market for 22-to-27-year-olds deteriorating noticeably, and Fed officials have admitted AI is partly to blame.
This is the new normal. Companies will hire less and less humans due to AI. Dont forget, a company’s main priority is profits and shareholder value, not employee salaries. I expect AI to disrupt the job market more than we’ve ever seen in the history of mankind. I suggest learning as much as you can about using AI. AI won’t replace you; someone using AI will.
My advice is simple: learn a field and learn how to use AI inside that field. Do not stop at knowing how to ask a chatbot a question. Learn how to check its work, find missing facts, explain a decision, and take responsibility when the answer is wrong. The tool is easy to copy. Good judgment is not.
The Next Inflation Shock Is Forming in the Pacific Ocean
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives this year’s El Niño an 81% chance of reaching “very strong” strength between October and December, which would rank it among the most powerful in 75 years. Deutsche Bank published a report calling it the next supply shock. The warning matters because this El Niño would hit a global supply chain that’s already stretched thin.
El Niño is a warming of Pacific waters that shifts global weather, bringing drought across parts of Asia and Australia, floods in parts of the Americas, and disruption to crops, hydropower, and shipping all at once. The last one helped drain the Panama Canal to its third-driest year on record and forced authorities to cut ship traffic. This one arrives while the Strait of Hormuz is closed, container shipping rates have already doubled this year, rice is up 45% since January, and wheat is up 25%. Talk about bad timing lol.
History shows us exactly what happens when a weather shock hits a system with no room to absorb it. In 1970, Peru’s anchovy fishery was the largest in the world, hauling 12 million tons of the small fish that fed the world’s livestock through fishmeal, and overfishing had already pushed it to its limit. Then the 1972-73 El Niño warmed the coastal waters, and by 1973 the catch had collapsed 85% from its record. Animal-feed prices spiked worldwide, food inflation was climbing before the OPEC oil embargo ever hit, and the 1970s inflation era started early because of warm water off Peru. The weather didn’t do it alone. It broke a system that had nothing left to absorb the hit, and that’s the exact setup today.
Did we forget about COVID and all the issues it caused with infrastructure, the supply-chain, shipping and logistics?
We watched COVID turn one supply shock into three years of higher prices because no part of the system had room to absorb it, and a very strong El Niño landing on closed shipping lanes and $91 oil is the same type of risk. I’m not telling you to hoard rice. I’m telling you what to watch, crop prices, container shipping rates, Panama Canal traffic, and the food line in the monthly inflation reports starting this fall. If those start rising together, the Fed’s inflation fight lasts longer, rates stay high for longer, and every “when do rates drop” plan gets pushed out another year.
New Homes Are Now Selling For Less Than Existing Homes
For the first time since 1974, brand-new homes cost less than used ones. Median new single-family homes sold for $403,200 in the first quarter against $404,600 existing homes, per National Association of Home Builders data drawing on Census and NAR figures. New homes carried a premium averaging 16% since 1987. John Burns Research puts the premium at -2% as of April, the first negative reading in five decades of data.
The reason is simple, builders can’t afford to wait, and homeowners can. Builders pay carrying costs on every unfinished house, so they cut. They’ve shrunk the median new home to 2,400 square feet from 2,700 in the mid-2010s, shifted construction to the cheaper South, and layered on incentives worth 7% to 8% of the sale price (rate buydowns, covered closing costs, design credits) that never show up in headline price data. Nearly 20% of new homes took outright price cuts in late 2025, per Realtor.com. Existing owners don’t face the same pressure; the average outstanding mortgage carries a 4.3% rate against market rates near 6.7%, so sellers simply pull their listings and wait. Baby boomers, who are 55% of all sellers and own 28% of America’s three-bedroom-plus homes, mostly don’t have to move.
Location changes everything about this headline though. New homes still carry a $309,200 premium over resales in the Northeast and $66,800 in the Midwest; the discount lives in the West, where existing homes run $55,500 above new, and the South, where the gap is $700. A national median dragged down by smaller Sun Belt homes says little about your street, so check your own market before assuming the discount exists there too.
Location is the most important thing. Location is the most important part of the decision. And if you can also get a great ROI on your housing expense, that’s one of the best things you can do in life. You kill two birds, with one stone: you pay for housing and get a good return over time. Housing is one of our largest expenses, and if you can manage to turn an expense into a profit center over time, it’s such a great strategy.
So here’s how to use this market: Your negotiating power is strongest at the builder’s office, in areas dense with new construction, and on the incentives rather than the sticker price. Compare the all-in monthly payment after the builder’s rate buydown against the resale at full market rate; a 7% incentive package can beat a $10,000 price cut. The first negative premium in 50 years means the deals are real. They’re just sitting where most buyers weren’t looking.
The Anti-AI Trade:
American farming is in its worst stretch since the 1980s. Farm bankruptcies climbed 46% between 2024 and 2025, squeezed by the China trade war, war-driven fertilizer costs, and a drought that covered over 36% of the country last year. That misery is exactly why analysts turned bullish on Deere (up 25.8% this year) and AGCO (up 9.3%) as beaten-down farm-equipment stocks with almost no connection to the AI trade.
It’s a great hedge when all you hear everywhere is AI this, AI that, blah blah blah AI AI AI.
The appeal is real. Agriculture’s earnings don’t depend on data-center budgets, chip supply, or chatbot adoption, and deep farm downturns, with bankruptcies forcing weak players out, have historically been where the surviving companies gain pricing power and the stocks bottom before the farm economy does. The case against is just as real though. Cheap stocks can stay cheap for years, rates above 6% make equipment loans painful, farmer balance sheets are wrecked, and the El Niño warning above could help or hurt here, because higher crop prices could lift farm income, or the weather could destroy the harvest that was supposed to pay for the tractor.
My rule for “hated” sectors hasn’t changed. Don’t buy them because they’re cheap. Buy them when the evidence turns, meaning equipment orders stabilizing and farm income bottoming, and size the position small enough that being two years early changes nothing in your life. Until then, this belongs on a watchlist, not in a portfolio.
What This Means for Us
These stories show the same change in different places. Asset owners receive the benefit of rising markets and profits first. Workers feel slower hiring first. Existing homeowners with low mortgage rates can wait. Buyers and renters pay today’s rates. Companies can invest in AI now while young workers absorb the risk before the return is proven.
You cannot control the starting point of an economic chart or the hiring plan of a large company. You can control how much cash you keep, what skills you build, whether you chase a stock, and whether part of each paycheck moves into long-term ownership.
Build that ownership slowly. Keep enough cash for the problems that investments cannot solve this month. Learn the tools changing your field. When you buy a home, compare the full cost and the location, not only the price. Those choices will not remove the K-shaped economy, but they can reduce how much of your financial future depends on a single paycheck.
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Part II: What the Market Is Telling Us
3. Market Psychology, Signals, and What’s Next
4. Interest Rate Forecast & Real Estate Outlook
(3) Market Psychology, Signals, and What’s Next
The psychology, signals, and data pointing to where the market will go next.
Strong profits and weak hiring are pointing in opposite directions. See my base case and three conditions that will change it.
(learn about all of the benefits here!)
(4) Interest Rate Forecast & Real Estate Outlook
What’s next for mortgages, housing, and your money.
Interest Rate Predictions
Freddie Mac’s 30-year average is 6.67%, higher than a year ago for the first time in 2026. The jobs report pulled the odds of a Fed hike down hard, then oil ran to $91 and the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, which is why mortgage relief hasn’t arrived yet. If rates hold near this level, next year stays difficult for the entire mortgage industry, and the largest lender in America, United Wholesale Mortgage, just had the worst day in its history after a $451.9 million quarterly loss driven by a hedge that went against it.
Last issue I gave you a 3-to-6-month range of 6.5% to 7% with a base case of 6.6% to 6.9%. Freddie Mac came in at 6.67% this week, right inside that base case, so the range stands, with the risk still tilted toward the top of it. The report that decides the near term is the September 11 inflation data. A low reading pulls rates toward the bottom of my range, while a high reading, with oil at $91 and a possible El Niño food shock behind it, points back toward 7%.
Over the long run, I expect mortgage rates to remain well above the emergency-low rates people saw in 2020 and 2021. Those 3% mortgages are a thing of the past.
History is the part people refuse to hear, so here it is again. The average 30-year mortgage rate since 1971 is 7.7%, which means today’s 6.67% is below the long-run American average. The 3% mortgage wasn’t normal, it was a global-emergency price, and planning your life around its return is planning around another catastrophe. Buy when the payment works at today’s rate, and treat any future refinance as a gift.
The Housing Market
The buyer’s market is improving from two directions at once. Demand is falling, with purchase and refinance applications both down and industry forecasts pointing to the smallest third-quarter mortgage market since 2022. And price cuts are showing up first at the builder’s office, where new homes now sell for a median $403,200 against $404,600 for resales, the first new-home discount in five decades. When the most motivated seller in the market is a builder with carrying costs, the negotiating power belongs to whoever walks into the sales office informed. And that’s you.
The rate-lock freeze explains the rest. The average outstanding mortgage carries 4.3% against market rates near 6.7%, so existing owners keep pulling listings and waiting instead of cutting prices. Until those two numbers get closer, resale supply stays thin, and the real negotiation happens on new construction, on rate buydowns and closing costs rather than sticker price.
For buyers, the location-and-ROI approach I laid out in Section 2 carries this whole section. Run the all-in monthly payment (mortgage at the real quoted rate, taxes, insurance, HOA, maintenance) and only buy what works at 6.7%. If a builder’s incentive package gets that number below the equivalent resale in a location you actually want, this market is finally offering us a real discount. Take it on your terms.
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Part III: Investment Research & Analysis
5. Insider Trading Alerts (Following the Smart Money)
6. My Stock Picks & Research
7. The Smartest Trades I See Right Now
(5) Insider Trading Alerts (Following the Smart Money)
The latest insider trades from politicians, billionaires, and CEO’s, that are worth paying attention to.
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(6) My Stock Picks & Research
These are the stocks I believe have the strongest long-term growth potential, including what I’m buying now and what I’m watching for a better price entry. (With my research, ratings, and buying plan).
Six stocks that jumped between 5% and 29% in a single day made the final list, including direct AI winners, businesses earning money from the physical buildout, and a separate memory opportunity. The paid research gives every rating, entry condition, risk, and thesis-breaker.
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(7) The Smartest Trades I See Right Now
Unusual options activity showing where the smart money is placing its biggest bets.
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Part IV: Financial Playbook (What To Right Do Now)
8. A Valuable Lesson (People Learn Too Late in Life)
9. My Tips & Actionable Advice
10. You Asked, I Answered
(8) Valuable Lessons People Learn Too Late in Life
Important lessons most people learn too late in life.
Man, I still remember the looks on my coworkers’ faces in 2008—shock, sadness, anger. A bunch of them lost their jobs.
I remember the mood of the country. People were losing jobs and homes at the same time. You could see how quickly financial security could disappear when income stopped and bills kept coming.
Today is not 2008 though. Unemployment is 4.1%, layoffs remain low, and the financial system isn’t collapsing. I’m not comparing the size of today’s problem with that crisis. I am explaining what the experience taught me.
A strong stock market does not protect your paycheck. A rising home value does not make the mortgage payment after a job loss. A retirement account is built for money you will need years from now, not for the car repair or medical bill due this month.
That lesson matters again because the market and ordinary life are giving us different information. Companies are producing strong profits while hiring slows. CEOs are planning fewer entry-level jobs before many can prove their AI investments worked. Homeowners with low mortgage rates can wait while buyers face payments near 6.7%.
Ownership still matters. Stocks, businesses, and well-chosen real estate give you a share of future growth. If your entire financial life depends on a paycheck, a weaker job market can stop your progress immediately. Moving part of each paycheck into long-term assets reduces that dependence over time.
But ownership without cash creates a different danger. If every available dollar is invested and income stops, you will have to sell those investments at the worst time. That turns a short-term problem into permanent damage.
The better plan does two jobs. Long-term ownership builds wealth. Cash you can reach protects the plan while that wealth has time to grow.
This is why I can remain optimistic about America over the long term and cautious about the next few months. Those positions do not conflict. I can believe businesses will create more value over the next decade and still prepare for a job loss, a repair, or a market drop this year.
Keep investing on a schedule, but do not skip the cash that protects your household. Buy a home only when the full payment works today. Learn the tools that are changing your work before your employer makes the decision for you.
The strongest financial plan is not the one that wins only when every forecast is right. It is the one that keeps working when a forecast is wrong, a market falls, or income is interrupted.
(9) My Tips & Actionable Advice
My goal is to help you make better decisions with money, investing, and life.
Five practical rules.
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(10) You Asked, I Answered
Here’s what paid subscribers are asking, and what you need to know too.
Have a question? Leave a comment below and I’ll answer it!
Q: If AI is taking entry-level jobs, what should my child study?
Several parents asked me versions of this question through DMs this week. My answer is to choose a durable field that fits the student, then learn how to use AI inside that field.
The student should not choose a major by trying to predict which job AI will never change. That list will keep changing. A better combination is subject knowledge, clear thinking, communication, practical experience, and the ability to check AI output.
Healthcare, engineering, cybersecurity, skilled trades, finance, and computer science can all be strong choices. The best one depends on the student’s interests and ability. Someone who hates the daily work will not become excellent because the field appears safe on a list.
Use internships and projects to build evidence. A student can show how they used AI to research faster, compare several choices, improve a process, or create a useful result. The important part is explaining what the tool missed and how the student corrected it.
Companies may hire fewer people to do basic research, administration, and first drafts. They will still need people who understand customers, find mistakes, manage relationships, and take responsibility for difficult decisions. Prepare for that work.
Q: Is gold at $4,400 too late to buy?
My neighbor asked me this question recently. Gold traded near $4,345 on August 18 after moving above $4,400 earlier, but the answer depends more on the job gold has in the portfolio than on one price.
Gold can provide diversification and protection during inflation, currency weakness, war, or financial stress. It does not produce earnings or cash flow. It can also fall sharply after a fast rise.
If you have high-interest debt, no emergency fund, or need the money soon, buying gold after a large increase probably should not be the priority. If the goal is long-term diversification, keep the amount modest and build it gradually instead of putting a large sum in at one price.
The right question is not only whether gold can rise again. It can. Ask whether the position improves your full plan and whether you can keep holding it if the price falls first.
Have another question? Leave a comment below and I’ll answer it!
👋Final Words:
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