đ„ The AI Boom vs. The Bond Market's Biggest Warning Since 2007
EXPLAINED: The 1970s Are Back. The Bond Market Just Sent a Warning. 6% Inflation. Quantum Computing.
In 1979, Paul Volcker became Fed Chair with a simple mandate. Kill inflation. The problem? Inflation was 11%. The president wanted lower rates. And the public hated him. Volcker raised rates to 20% anyway. The economy went into back-to-back recessions. And he is now remembered as a hero.
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair last week. His inflation problem is smaller (3.8% and climbing). His political pressure is larger. And his bond market is already at 5.19% on the 30-year.
Thatâs a number most investors never look at. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond. Last week, it hit 5.19%. The highest since July 2007.
I want you to think about what July 2007 was. It was 12 months before Lehman Brothers collapsed and took the global economy with it. The bond market knew something was wrong long before equity markets did. It always does. Bonds are the financial systemâs smoke detector. And right now, that detector is going off.
Iâve been flagging this for weeks in this newsletter (if youâve been reading, you know). The mainstream story is that AI is unstoppable, stocks are at all-time highs, and the economy is resilient. All of that is true. But thereâs a second story running underneath it, and itâs the one that will determine what your portfolio looks like 12 months from now.
In this issue, I'm going to show you why the bond market's warning matters more than the stock market's celebration, reveal the exact numbers that will trigger the next market correction, explain why Berkshire's massive Google bet is smarter than most people think, break down why you should avoid the biggest IPOs in history (and what to own instead), give you the counterintuitive reason retail investors are wrong about the market right now, and share exactly where smart money is moving in this environment.
Every week, I try to share what Iâm seeing so you can make better decisions with your own money. Thatâs the whole purpose of this newsletter. To help you see whatâs happening, understand why it matters, and know what to do about it.
If thatâs valuable to you, please share this newsletter with others who will benefit from it. And consider becoming a paid subscriber.
đŹ Hereâs whatâs inside todayâs issue:
Part I - The Big Picture
1. The Market Brief
2. News You Need to KnowPart II - What the Market Are Telling Us
3. Market Psychology & Whatâs Next
4. Interest Rate & Real Estate ForecastPart III - Investment Research
5. Insider Trading Alerts
6. The Best Stocks Right Now
7. Todayâs High-Conviction TradePart IV- The Playbook
8. Practical Advice & Lessons
9. One Thing To Remember
10. Ask Andrew: Subscriber Q&A
A message from 9fin:
The best investors arenât smarter than you, they just have better information.
The investors who profit in a crisis donât have better instincts, they just have better information. They understand whatâs happening before everyone else does. And for most investors, that information has always been out of reach.
Today, on May 28th at 2pm ET, restructuring practitioners from Kirkland & Ellis, Pillsbury, and Sidley Austin are sharing it all for free.
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Part I - The Big Picture
1ïžâŁ The Market Brief
The 30-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.19%, the highest since July 2007. The 10-year climbed to 4.69%, the highest since January 2025. Bond investors are pricing in inflation staying elevated for longer.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 44.8 in May, a new all-time record low. Gas hit $4.55/gallon nationally, the highest since 2022. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8%. Long-run expectations rose to 3.9%.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters now projects CPI at 6% for Q2, up sharply from a prior estimate of just 2.7%, driven by the Iran warâs impact on energy prices.
Fed minutes from the April meeting showed most officials believe rate hikes are appropriate if inflation stays elevated. Four officials dissented, the most since 1992. Markets are now pricing in at least one rate hike by late 2026.
Nvidia posted a record-breaking quarter with $81.6B in revenue (up 85% year over year), and Q2 guidance of $91B above the $87.3B consensus. The company hiked its quarterly dividend 2,400% to $0.25/share and authorized another $80B in buybacks. Shares still fell roughly 3% after hours.
The U.S. Commerce Department announced $2B in quantum computing investments across nine firms, with the government taking equity stakes. D-Wave surged 33%, Rigetti jumped 31%, IBM gained 12%, and GlobalFoundries rose nearly 15%.
SpaceX officially filed its IPO prospectus, targeting a $2T+ valuation and an $80B raise that would make it the largest IPO in history. OpenAI is preparing to file as soon as this week. Anthropic expects its first operating profit in Q2 and is eyeing its own public debut.
đĄ Andrewâs Analysis:
Iâve been flagging for several weeks that the bond market was sending warning signs most investors were choosing to ignore. This week, those warnings got louder.
The AI boom is so powerful right now that itâs masking the damage inflation is doing everywhere else. And eventually, that math doesnât hold.
Start with the bull case, because itâs real. Nvidiaâs $81.6B quarter is the largest in chip history. Free cash flow of $48.5B in a single quarter. A 2,400% dividend hike. Jensen Huang called demand âparabolicâ and said agentic AI has arrived. Every major AI model in the world runs on Nvidia hardware. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft are spending roughly $725B combined on AI infrastructure this year. The Dow hit an all-time high. The S&P 500 is near record levels.
Thatâs the first story. The second one is harder to look at.
Bond markets are the financial systemâs early warning system. They move slowly. But when they move, they mean it. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.19%, a level not seen since July 2007. The 10-year climbed to 4.69%. HSBC officially called Treasuries âin the danger zone.â BMO warned that if the 30-year hits 5.25%, expect a âdurable pullbackâ in equity valuations.
Why are yields rising? Three forces at once.
First, inflation is back. Gas is $4.55 nationally. The Survey of Professional Forecasters now sees CPI hitting 6% this quarter, compared to their prior estimate of 2.7% just three months ago. Long-run inflation expectations are at 3.9%, well above the Fedâs 2% target. Thatâs a major shift.
Second, the federal government is running deficits around 6% of GDP, flooding the market with new Treasury supply. More bonds hitting the market, with softening global demand, pushes prices down and yields up.
Third (and this is the twist most investors are missing), the AI capex boom itself is competing for capital. Hyperscalers borrowing hundreds of billions to build data centers compete directly with government debt for the same investment dollars. That keeps long-term rates elevated even when youâd expect economic uncertainty to bring them down.
Hereâs the paradox that makes this moment unusual. Normally, an oil shock slows the economy and gives the Fed room to cut. But the AI investment wave is absorbing the economic slack. Demand stays resilient. So instead of a traditional âslowdown that tames inflation,â you have sticky inflation and strong growth at the same time. Thatâs the hardest environment for the Fed to navigate. They canât cut without risking more inflation. And that forces the hand toward hikes, not cuts.
The Fed minutes confirmed it. Most officials now believe rate hikes are appropriate if inflation persists. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who came in with dovish leanings and a president demanding lower rates, is inheriting a bond market that may force him in the opposite direction. The market went from pricing in multiple cuts this year to pricing in a potential hike by late 2026. Thatâs a complete reversal in expectations.
Meanwhile, the consumer is cracking.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 44.8. All-time record low. Lower than COVID. Lower than 2008. Walmartâs internal threshold for when consumers start making real behavioral trade-offs is $4.56/gallon for gas. Gas just hit that level. Home Depot saw transaction volumes fall for a fourth consecutive quarter. Loweâs CEO said itâs the toughest housing market since the financial crisis.
The stock market is near all-time highs. Main Street is at record levels of economic pessimism. That gap is historically unusual. It tends to close.
The AI boom is simultaneously creating extraordinary wealth and generating the financial conditions that could undermine it. Nvidiaâs record profits fund hyperscaler capex. That capex drives bond market demand for capital. That pushes yields higher. Higher yields raise the discount rate on every AI stock. And rising energy inflation eats into consumer purchasing power, which reduces the disposable income available to buy the tech products that generate the AI revenue that justifies these valuations.
These forces donât cancel each other out. They coexist until something breaks the tension in one direction.
My advice:
Long-term investors (5 or more years): stay invested in quality names. The AI cycle is real and structural. Nvidia at $5.4T is not 1999âs Pets.com. Use any volatility as a buying opportunity, not a reason to panic.
Investors with concentrated tech positions: the combination of overbought technicals (RSI above 70 on both the S&P and Nasdaq), crowded institutional positioning (fund managers at the highest equity allocation since January 2022), and rising bond yields creates real downside risk on any negative catalyst. Rebalancing toward value (financials, healthcare, energy) reduces that concentration risk.
Bond investors: short-duration bonds (1 to 3 years), money market funds, and I-bonds are defensively positioned for a higher-for-longer environment. Long-duration bond funds are still losing value quietly.
For cash on the sidelines: money market funds and short-term Treasuries are paying 4 to 5%. Youâre getting paid to wait. Patience has a real return right now.
Watch two numbers: the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.65% (HSBCâs danger zone trigger) and the 30-year at 5.25% (BMOâs red line for an equity pullback). Weâre close to both. A sustained break above either level tends to precede broader market stress.
The bull market is alive. But itâs running in a more complicated field than it was six months ago.
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2ïžâŁ News You Need to Know
đŹ Today we look at:
1) The Biggest IPOs in History Are Coming.
2) Bond Yields Just Hit a 19-Year High. The Bond Market Is Sending a Warning.
3) 75% of Fund Managers Are Betting Everything on Semiconductors
4) Quantum is the Next Great Technology Revolution.
5) Berkshire Tripling Its Google Bet Is More Bullish Than Most People Think.
đ€ But first, will you invest in SpaceX or OpenAI at IPO?
1. The Biggest IPOs in History Are Coming.
OpenAI is preparing to file its IPO prospectus as soon as this week, while SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 registration statement to the SEC, targeting a valuation above $2T and an $80B raise that would make it the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramcoâs $29.4B record from 2019.
Let me be direct. Just because you can buy doesnât mean you should.
SpaceXâs S-1 reveals a company burning cash at a striking rate. Q1 2026 revenue was $4.69B, but the company posted a $4.3B net loss in the same quarter. The AI unit (xAI) alone lost $2.5B. Starlink (the Connectivity segment) is the only profitable division, generating $1.19B. The company calls its total addressable market $28.5T, has written Muskâs compensation around establishing a permanent Mars colony of 1 million inhabitants, and Musk holds 85% of all voting control. At a $2T valuation, heâd likely become the worldâs first trillionaire.
OpenAI was last valued at $852B in private markets. Anthropic expects $10.9B in Q2 revenue (up 130%) and its first operating profit. These are genuinely impressive businesses.
But hereâs what nobody putting you in these IPOs wants to discuss.
On average, IPOs underperform the S&P 500 in their first year. You take on more risk than the broad market and historically get paid less for it. The price was already set by private market investors before you ever see the prospectus. By the time itâs a headline, the discovery premium is probably already gone.
The biggest companies in history came from fewer than 5% of all IPOs over the last 30 years. And stock-picking professionals with full research teams underperform the S&P 500 about 90% of the time. If they canât reliably pick winners, the odds of getting it right on a single hyped IPO are even lower.
History has shown this pattern clearly. Facebook fell 50% after its 2012 IPO before eventually recovering. Uber and Lyft spent years below their IPO prices. The recent wave of SPAC-listed quantum companies is already down 32 to 37% from their debuts.
The smarter play if you believe in AI: own the infrastructure. Nvidia dominates the chip market. The hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) are deploying hundreds of billions and growing AI revenue. Power companies and data center operators are direct beneficiaries. The picks-and-shovels approach wins in every gold rush.
2. Bond Yields Just Hit a 19-Year High. The Bond Market Is Sending a Warning.
HSBC strategists declared in a research note that U.S. Treasuries are âfirmly in the Danger Zone,â as the 30-year yield hit 5.19%, its highest since July 2007, while analysts at BMO Capital Markets, Apollo Global Management, and Interactive Brokers flagged escalating risks for equities and borrowers across all asset classes.
Most investors think bond yields are a number only bond traders care about. Thatâs a costly mistake.
The 10-year Treasury yield is the rate the entire economy runs on. Every mortgage, car loan, credit card, and corporate bond is priced off it. When it moves from 4% to 5%, a $400,000 mortgage costs roughly $240 more per month. Multiply that across every American borrower simultaneously, and you have a massive, slow-moving economic headwind.
Three forces are pushing yields higher at the same time.
First, inflation is back. The Iran war sent oil above $100. Gas hit $4.55 nationally. The Survey of Professional Forecasters projects CPI at 6% for Q2, vs. their prior estimate of just 2.7%. Bond investors demanding compensation for that higher inflation push yields up.
Second, the federal government is running deficits around 6% of GDP, flooding the market with Treasury supply. More bonds, with softening global demand, means lower prices and higher yields.
Third (the twist most missed): the AI infrastructure boom is creating enormous competition for capital. When Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft borrow hundreds of billions to build data centers, they compete directly with government debt for the same investor pool. That keeps long-term rates elevated even when youâd otherwise expect economic uncertainty to bring them down.
Hereâs what makes this moment unusual. Normally, an oil shock slows growth and gives the Fed room to cut. But the AI boom is offsetting the slowdown. Demand stays strong. So instead of the traditional âgrowth slowdown that tames inflation,â you have sticky inflation and resilience at the same time. Thatâs the bond marketâs nightmare combination. And it forces the Fedâs hand toward hikes.
A Bank of America survey found that 62% of global fund managers expect the 30-year to hit 6%, a level not seen since 1999. UK, German, and Japanese bonds are all at multi-decade highs. This is a global repricing, not a U.S.-specific event.
My advice:
For stock investors: watch 4.65% on the 10-year (HSBCâs danger zone threshold) and 5.25% on the 30-year (BMOâs red line for a durable equity pullback). Weâre close to both.
For homebuyers: mortgage rates just hit 6.51%. Donât wait for the Fed to cut and expect rates to follow immediately. If the Fed cuts for political reasons rather than data-driven ones, bond markets could actually push long-term rates higher, taking mortgages with them. Lower mortgage rates require lower inflation first. That takes time.
For bond holders: rising yields mean falling prices. Long-duration bond funds have been quietly losing value for months. Short-duration bonds (1 to 3 years), money market funds, and I-bonds are more defensively positioned.
The era of ârates always drift lowerâ is over. An entire generation of investors has never experienced a sustained higher-rate environment. Now theyâre living in one.
3. 75% of Fund Managers Are Betting Everything on Semiconductors
Bank of Americaâs monthly global fund manager survey, tracking 200 institutional investors managing $517B in combined assets, found equity allocations jumped to 50% overweight in May, the steepest single-month surge since 2001 and the highest stock allocation recorded since January 2022.
January 2022.
That was the last time fund managers were this aggressively positioned in equities. Three months later, inflation spiked, the Fed started its most aggressive hiking cycle in decades, and the S&P 500 fell roughly 25% over the following year.
Weâre back at that same allocation level. And the backdrop rhymes more than investors seem to be acknowledging.
Right now, three-quarters of fund managers say âlong global semiconductorsâ is the most crowded trade in the market. Two-thirds of the S&P 500âs gains since late March trace to mega-cap tech. The PHLX Semiconductor index surged nearly 50% from its March low before starting to roll over. And Nvidia is worth $5.4T.
In my years watching market cycles, one of the clearest patterns I observed is this. Crowded trades outperform beautifully, right up until they donât. When three-quarters of professional investors own the same position, any negative catalyst forces everyone to exit at the same time. Thereâs no natural buyer on the other side. Thatâs how 3% pullbacks turn into 15% pullbacks within days.
Hereâs the specific tension worth watching. 40% of fund managers now say inflation is their top tail risk, up from 26% just last month. And yet they increased equity allocations to record levels at the same time. Theyâre worried. But theyâre not positioned defensively. When stated fear and actual positioning diverge this sharply, the resolution tends to be painful and fast.
The semiconductor index is already down nearly 10% from last weekâs record high, posting three straight losing sessions. Nvidia fell after delivering a blowout quarter. When good news stops moving stocks higher, the good news is already priced in.
Cash levels among fund managers are near their lowest in years. Less dry powder to buy dips. When everyone is fully invested and something breaks, the selling gets amplified.
What I think: this isnât a âsell everythingâ signal. But if your portfolio is 70% or more in semiconductor and AI-related stocks, youâre running the most crowded institutional trade on the planet. That concentration is worth addressing.
My advice: trim positions that are up dramatically, rotate some into underperforming areas (healthcare, energy, international equities, financials), and keep meaningful cash. You donât need to predict the top. You just need to avoid being over-concentrated when the correction arrives.
4. Quantum is the Next Great Technology Revolution.
The U.S. Commerce Department announced a $2B initiative to invest across nine quantum computing companies, taking equity stakes in each, in what Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called leading âthe world into a new era of American innovation.â
IBM surged 12%, D-Wave shot up 33%, Rigetti jumped 31%, and GlobalFoundries gained nearly 15%.
Let me explain what this technology actually is, because the investment opportunity only makes sense if you understand what youâre buying.
Regular computers store information as bits: either 1 or 0. Quantum computers use âqubits,â which can hold the values of 1 and 0 simultaneously through quantum superposition. For specific problem types (drug discovery, materials science, financial risk modeling, logistics optimization, and most critically, encryption), this could make them exponentially more powerful than any traditional computer. McKinsey estimates quantum could deliver $1.3 to $2.7T in economic value by 2035.
The national security angle is driving the urgency. A powerful enough quantum computer could crack the encryption protecting classified communications, banking systems, and critical infrastructure. China is targeting commercial quantum availability by 2030. The U.S. government sees this race as a strategic necessity, not just a commercial bet.
IBM gets $1B (matched by its own $1B) to build Anderon, the first dedicated quantum chip foundry in the U.S., in Albany, NY. D-Wave, Rigetti, and Infleqtion each receive $100M. GlobalFoundries gets $375M and a new quantum-focused business unit.
Quantum is a high-risk, long-duration bet. Nvidiaâs Jensen Huang thinks useful quantum computers are still roughly 20 years away. Googleâs Sundar Pichai says 5 to 10 years. Bill Gates says as few as 3. When the worldâs best-informed tech executives disagree by a factor of 7, the honest answer is: nobody knows yet.
Recent SPAC-listed quantum companies are a cautionary tale. Xanadu generated $2.7M in its first nine months as a public company at a $3.1B valuation. Infleqtion is down 37% since debuting. These arenât businesses generating meaningful revenue yet.
But the government investment changes the calculus in one specific way. Federal backing de-risks the survival question. IBM, D-Wave, and Rigetti now have government-guaranteed funding and government-backed legitimacy. They wonât go bankrupt next year waiting for commercial applications.
The smart money move: treat quantum as speculative exposure, not a core position. Small allocation (1 to 5% of a portfolio) into the companies that now have government contracts (IBM, D-Wave, Rigetti) as a long-duration âlottery ticketâ on a genuinely transformative technology. IBM has the diversification advantage if quantum takes longer than expected. The pure-play quantum names have higher upside and higher risk.
This is where AI was in 2012. Patient capital with small allocations wins. Speculation with large ones tends to lose.
5. Berkshire Tripling Its Google Bet Is More Bullish Than Most People Think.
Berkshire Hathaway disclosed in its quarterly 13F regulatory filing that it bought $16B in stocks and sold $24B in Q1 2026, tripling its stake in Alphabet to 58 million shares (now its fifth-largest holding at $23B), initiating a $3B position in Delta Air Lines, and making a small investment in Macyâs.
Every quarter, Warren Buffettâs 13F filing gets millions of views. People treat it like a treasure map. And while Berkshire managing $300B+ in equities means every move is worth understanding, the lessons run deeper than just copying the trade.
Alphabet tripled to $23B is the biggest story. Itâs now behind only Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, and Bank of America in Berkshireâs portfolio. Whether this was CEO Greg Abelâs first major investment move or still Buffettâs direction is genuinely unclear. Either way, the message is unmistakable. Berkshire, historically cautious about technology, is making a massive bet that Googleâs AI pivot is real and durable. Googleâs advertising moat, cloud infrastructure, and YouTube combined with its deep AI investment (Google owns 7% of SpaceX, runs Gemini, DeepMind, and NotebookLM) make it the most diversified AI exposure of any single company.
The Delta Air Lines initiation ($3B) is almost certainly Weschlerâs pick, as the size matches his expanded authority exactly. After years of Buffett selling airline exposure (he dumped all airline holdings in early 2020), this signals renewed conviction that travel demand is structurally resilient even in a higher-cost environment. Delta is the most premium-positioned U.S. airline, with an American Express partnership that generates billions in co-branded card revenue.
The Macyâs initiation is small but interesting. Macyâs owns substantial real estate in high-value locations. Berkshireâs real estate bet here is likely a play on the underlying property value rather than the retail business.
Most notably, Berkshire dumped roughly $14B in stocks previously managed by Todd Combs, incurring about $2B in taxes. Thatâs a deliberate, expensive portfolio cleanup. The tax bill alone tells you they werenât on the fence about it.
Hereâs the timeless lesson. Berkshire is still sitting on $380B in cash and only deployed $16B. Theyâre not panic-buying at all-time highs. Theyâre being selective, patient, and tax-aware.
The most important thing you can learn from Berkshireâs 13F isnât which stocks to buy. Itâs how to buy: with conviction on companies with durable competitive advantages, a long time horizon, and the discipline to pay taxes willingly when a position no longer makes sense.
đĄ Andrewâs Analysis:
One pattern emerges sharply. We are at a genuine inflection point where the two most powerful forces in markets (the AI revolution and rising inflation) are feeding each other, and the tension between them defines every major investment decision right now.
AI spending is driving Nvidiaâs record profits, quantum computingâs next wave, and Googleâs ecosystem reinvention. The hyperscalers deploying hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure are keeping demand (and bond yields) elevated, which keeps inflation sticky, which blocks the rate cuts that would have made this bull market even more powerful. SpaceX and OpenAI going public gives retail investors their first direct access to the companies defining this era, right at the moment when professional investors are at record levels of equity concentration and bond markets are flashing the most serious warnings in almost two decades.
Berkshireâs move provides the clearest signal on how to navigate this. When the worldâs most disciplined capital allocator triples its Google position and still holds $380B in cash, the message isnât âbuy everything.â The message is âown the best businesses, stay patient with the rest.â
The AI cycle is real. The inflation threat is real. The bond market warning is real. All three are true simultaneously.
A message from 9fin:
The best investors arenât smarter than you, they just have better information.
The investors who profit in a crisis donât have better instincts, they just have better information. They understand whatâs happening before everyone else does. And for most investors, that information has always been out of reach.
Today on May 28th at 2pm ET, restructuring practitioners from Kirkland & Ellis, Pillsbury, and Sidley Austin are sharing it all for free.
Sign up for free before it fills up. Itâs this Thursday. Today.
Part II - What the Markets Are Telling Us
3. Market Psychology & Whatâs Next
4. Real Estate & Interest Rate Forecast
3ïžâŁ Market Psychology & Whatâs Next
Fear & Greed Index: Greed on the Surface, Fear Underneath
The Fear & Greed Index is a tool that measures the emotions driving the stock market on a scale from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), using seven market signals to gauge whether investors are being too cautious or too reckless with their money.
The index sits at 61, in Greed territory. But the headline number tells only half the story. Dig one level deeper and the picture gets complicated fast.
The bullish signals are real. Market momentum is in Extreme Greed, with the S&P 500 trading well above its 125-day average. The options market is also in Extreme Greed, meaning traders are overwhelmingly placing bullish bets, not hedging. And stocks have dramatically outperformed bonds over the past 20 trading days, reflecting genuine risk appetite.
But stock price strength and market breadth are both in Fear territory. That means relatively few individual stocks are hitting new 52-week highs, and the volume of rising stocks is not keeping pace with the indexâs gains. Junk bond demand is also softening, a quiet but important signal. When investors start pulling back from riskier corporate debt, it often means confidence is eroding at the edges before it shows up in the headline index.
The honest takeaway: a small group of mega-cap AI stocks is carrying the market to greedy levels while most stocks underneath are struggling. That divergence between index-level greed and stock-level fear is the most important signal the index is flashing right now.
AAII Investor Sentiment: Retail Investors Are Nervous
The AAII Sentiment Survey has been asking individual investors every week since 1987 where they think the stock market will be in six months, making it one of the longest-running measures of retail investor mood.
This weekâs results are striking. Bullish sentiment dropped 7.6 points to just 31.7%, falling below its historical average of 37.5%. Bearish sentiment jumped to 43.6%, now above its historical average of 31.0% for the 15th week in a row. The bull-bear spread (bulls minus bears) is sitting at -11.9%, below its historical average for 14 of the last 15 weeks. Thatâs a sustained stretch of pessimism thatâs hard to ignore.
Hereâs what makes this particularly interesting. More than half of those same investors (51.9%) said Q1 2026 earnings came in better than expected. So this isnât fear driven by bad corporate results. Companies are doing well. The fear is macro. Gas at $4.55. Inflation heading toward 6%. Bond yields at 19-year highs. A Fed signaling possible rate hikes. People feel the stress of the economy in their daily lives, even when their portfolio statements look fine.
And hereâs the contrarian angle that experienced investors know well. Extreme bearish readings in the AAII survey have historically preceded market rallies, not declines. When retail investors are this pessimistic, thereâs often a large pool of uninvested cash sitting on the sidelines. One genuine positive catalyst (a Middle East ceasefire, a cooler inflation print, a Fed pivot) could unlock that cash quickly and drive a sharp leg higher. The pessimism itself is fuel for the next rally, if the right spark arrives.
Technical Analysis: Uptrend Intact
The S&P 500 closed at 7,519, up 0.61% on the day, 5.78% over the past 22 days, and 9.58% over the past 66 days. The trend is positive across short, medium, and long timeframes. No overhead resistance.
The Nasdaq-100 hit 30,001 on May 26, up an impressive 20.99% over the past 66 trading days, and technically positive across all timeframes. One note: the Nasdaq has broken below the floor of its short-term rising trend channel, which signals a slightly weaker initial rate of climb going forward.
Bitcoin at 75,678 is the most telling signal. Itâs sandwiched between support at 75,000 and resistance at 77,200, stuck in a tight range. The medium-term technical signal for Bitcoin is negative. Long-term is Hold. Bitcoin tends to act as the most sensitive risk barometer in markets, often leading equities in both directions. A flat to softening Bitcoin while major indexes are near all-time highs is a signal that risk appetite is narrowing. The broad enthusiasm isnât as deep as the Nasdaq headline suggests.
Economic Indicators & Recession Risk
The economy isnât in recession. GDP is growing at 2.0%. Unemployment is at 4.3%. Those two readings reflect an economy that is still expanding with a labor market absorbing workers. Thatâs the foundation holding everything else up, and right now itâs still solid.
But two indicators are flashing clear warnings.
Inflation (CPI) is running at 3.78% and heading higher. The Survey of Professional Forecasters now projects CPI hitting 6% in Q2, nearly triple the Fedâs 2% target, driven primarily by energy prices from the Iran conflict. Thatâs not a rounding error. Thatâs a genuine inflationary shock that erodes purchasing power for every household in the country. And consumer sentiment has collapsed to 53.3 on the dashboard, with the University of Michiganâs real-time reading hitting 44.8 this month, an all-time record low. Americans have jobs. Theyâre earning money. But they feel terrible because every trip to the gas station and grocery store is a reminder that their dollars buy less than they used to.
On recession risk: weâre not there yet, but the conditions for one are building. Sustained inflation above 3.5%, a potential Fed rate hike, slowing GDP projections (forecasters see growth dropping toward 1.9% by 2027), and record-low consumer sentiment are a combination that has preceded recessions before. The labor market is the economyâs shock absorber right now. As long as unemployment stays near 4.3%, a full recession remains unlikely in the near term. But if hiring slows or layoffs tick up, the whole picture shifts quickly. Elevated recession risk is real. Itâs just not imminent yet.
The Big Picture: What It All Means
Pull every piece together and one story becomes clear. This market is being held up by a narrow, powerful force (AI enthusiasm and mega-cap tech) while a wide set of warning signs builds quietly underneath.
The indexes are near all-time highs. The technical trend is intact. Options traders are overwhelmingly bullish. But individual stock breadth is in Fear. Retail investors are at peak pessimism. Inflation is running hot and accelerating. Consumer sentiment is at a record low. Bond yields are at 19-year highs. And Bitcoin, the marketâs most sensitive risk barometer, is stalling.
Two completely different stories are being told simultaneously. And theyâre both true at the same time.
The AI cycle is real and structural. Nvidiaâs $81.6B quarter, $725B in hyperscaler capex, and the quantum computing investment wave arenât hype. Theyâre hard numbers. That force is powering the indexes and it isnât going away. But the broader economy is under genuine stress. Gas at $4.55 is a tax on every household. CPI heading toward 6% erases real wage growth. A Fed moving toward hikes (not cuts) changes the cost of every dollar borrowed in America. And 43.6% of retail investors believe stocks will be lower six months from now.
Hereâs how all four signals connect. Greed at the index level reflects AI enthusiasm. Fear in the breadth reflects everything outside AI. AAII bearishness reflects the real economy people are living in daily. And the technicals confirm the uptrend is real but narrowing, with Bitcoin hinting the enthusiasm has limits.
The single most important macro catalyst right now is the Middle East. A credible ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening would drop oil prices, ease inflation, send bond yields lower, and flip retail sentiment sharply. Thatâs the scenario that unlocks sideline cash and drives the next leg higher. On the downside, the 30-year Treasury yield breaking above 5.25% (BMOâs red line) or a Fed rate hike could trigger a meaningful pullback as equity valuations get repriced against higher discount rates.
My Advice
Long-term investors (5 or more years) should stay invested. The trend is up. The AI cycle has years to run. Panic-selling at near-record highs, driven by retail-level bearishness, has historically been one of the most expensive mistakes investors make. Donât let the pessimistic majority pull you out of a structurally positive market.
But if your portfolio is heavily concentrated in semiconductors and mega-cap AI names (the most crowded institutional trade on the planet right now), the narrow breadth, peak positioning, and macro headwinds are a clear reason to reduce that concentration. Trim whatâs run the most. Rotate some into sectors that benefit from inflation (energy, materials, financials) or that are defensively valued (healthcare, utilities). Keep meaningful cash. At 4 to 5% money market rates, youâre getting paid to be patient.
The market rewards discipline. Right now, neither blind greed nor panic fear is the right response. Stay invested, stay diversified, and watch those two numbers every week: the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.65% and the 30-year at 5.25%. Those are the lines in the sand the bond market has drawn. If either breaks and holds, the risk-reward for equities shifts in a way that matters.
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4ïžâŁ Interest Rate & Real Estate Forecast
Interest Rates: Flat to Slightly Lower in the Near Term
I expect mortgage rates to stay flat or drift slightly lower over the next week, though the bigger picture remains firmly âhigher for longerâ until the Middle East situation resolves.
Hereâs where we stand. The 30-year fixed mortgage is sitting at 6.56% as of May 27, up from 6.36% just two weeks ago. Rates have surged 53 basis points over the past 12 weeks, driven almost entirely by one thing: the Iran war and what itâs done to oil prices, inflation expectations, and bond yields. Every time thereâs a hint of progress on a peace deal, rates ease. Every time talks stall, they climb back up. Thatâs the cycle weâve been stuck in.
The near-term direction of rates has almost nothing to do with the Fed right now, and everything to do with what happens in the Middle East. Iranâs state TV recently reported a draft framework that could restore commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within a month. The bond market is responding cautiously to that news, which is why rates have pulled back slightly from their recent highs. If that framework becomes a verified agreement, oil prices fall, inflation cools, bond yields drop, and mortgage rates follow. Thatâs the scenario where rates move meaningfully lower, potentially back toward the low 6% range by summer.
But hereâs the catch. Peace deal headlines have disappointed before. If this one doesnât cross the finish line, rates will find their way back up quickly. Iâm not banking on the ceasefire until itâs confirmed and holding.
Kevin Warsh just took over as Fed Chair, and I want to be direct about what that means for rates. Donât expect him to save you. Heâs 1 of 12 votes on the FOMC, and the committee heâs inheriting is leaning toward hikes, not cuts. The April Fed minutes showed a majority of officials believe rate hikes would be appropriate if inflation keeps running hot. Warsh was nominated as a dove, but the data isnât giving him room to act like one. And hereâs what most people miss: even if the Fed eventually cuts short-term rates, that doesnât automatically bring mortgage rates down. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed funds rate. If markets believe cuts are politically motivated rather than data-driven, long-term yields stay elevated or go higher, and mortgage rates stay right with them. The path to lower mortgage rates runs through lower inflation, not through the Fed chairâs preferences.
My 90-day outlook: rates stay in a range between 6.2% and 6.6%, with the direction hinging almost entirely on geopolitical developments. Major housing authorities are projecting Q2 averages between 5.9% and 6.3%. I think those forecasts are optimistic unless we get a confirmed, lasting resolution in the Middle East. The more realistic range for the rest of Q2 is 6.2% to 6.5%.
One grounding fact worth remembering. The historical average 30-year fixed rate going back to 1971 is around 7.8%. At 6.5%, weâre below that long-run average. The 3% era of 2020 and 2021 was the anomaly, not the norm. Waiting for those rates to return is likely a long wait.
For buyers: Donât try to time the bottom. Get pre-approved now, not pre-qualified. If a peace deal materializes and rates drop 50 to 75 basis points quickly, every buyer who was waiting on the sidelines will flood back into the market at the same time, pushing prices higher and absorbing the affordability improvement you were hoping for. The rate you get today can be refinanced. The home you lose to a competing buyer canât be recovered. Get quotes from at least 3 to 5 lenders before committing. Rate differences between lenders can be 25 to 50 basis points on the same borrower profile, which adds up to thousands of dollars over the life of a loan.
Real Estate
This is the strongest spring housing market since 2022. April pending home sales rose 1.4% for the month and 3.2% year over year. New listings and contract signings are up across most major metros. After two years of near-paralysis, the market is moving again.
But resilient and recovered are two different things.
The most important signal right now is seller behavior. Median listing prices have fallen year over year for 30 straight weeks, down 2.3%. Sellers are listing lower from the start rather than pricing high and cutting later. That shift is whatâs generating transactions. Markets where sellers are pricing realistically are seeing signed contracts. Markets where sellers are anchored to 2022 peak valuations are sitting frozen.
The structural problem hasnât changed. The national housing market is offering buyers only 75% of the access theyâd have in a well-functioning market. Only 15 to 20% of renters have enough saved for a typical down payment. Entry-level supply remains the most acute shortage in the country. Multi-family construction is surging, which helps renters over the next 18 to 24 months, but does nothing to solve the single-family shortage for buyers.
Long-term, the dynamics are clear. Millions of homeowners locked into sub-3% mortgages wonât sell. New construction is running well below historical demand. Those forces favor home price appreciation in supply-constrained markets regardless of where rates go.
For buyers: The window right now is real. Sellers are the most realistic theyâve been since 2022. Midwest and Upper South markets (Indianapolis, Columbus, Kansas City, Birmingham) offer the best combination of inventory, pricing, and buyer access in the country.
For sellers: Price it right on day one. Buyers in 2026 are informed and patient. Overpricing doesnât create negotiation room. It creates no offers.
For investors: Midwest and Sun Belt markets with job growth and below-average home prices offer the best long-term hold opportunities. The short term is choppy. The long-term direction for quality markets remains up.
Part II - Investment Research
5. Insider Trading Alerts
6. The Best Stocks Right Now
7. Todayâs High-Conviction Trade
5ïžâŁ Insider Trading Alerts
1) Amrize Ltd $AMRZ
Amrize Ltd is a specialty construction materials company, recently carved out from Holcim. It focuses on sustainable building materials across North American markets.
Chairman and CEO Jan Philipp Jenisch purchased 28,417 shares at $49.53 on May 15 for $1,407,571 (reported May 18). This is Jenisch backing his own turnaround thesis. Amrize is relatively early in its post-spinoff chapter. Infrastructure spending under the CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and ongoing U.S. reshoring initiatives creates significant long-term demand tailwinds for construction materials. A CEO buying $1.4M at these levels believes the market is undervaluing where this company is headed.
2) F Sinclair Corp $DINO
HF Sinclair is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer, producing a range of products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and lubricants across refineries in the U.S. It also owns Holly Frontierâs operations and has a renewable fuels segment.
CEO and President Franklin Myers purchased 15,000 shares at $69.11 on May 18 for $1,036,650 (reported May 18). The oil refining sector is directly exposed to the current energy price environment. With crude above $100 and gas averaging $4.55 nationally, refining margins can expand significantly, as refiner profits are driven partly by the spread between crude input costs and refined product prices.
Myers buying over $1M of personal stock right now suggests he believes the current energy environment supports improved earnings ahead, and that DINOâs valuation hasnât fully reflected the higher-margin environment. Energy as a sector is largely being ignored by the market (only 18% of S&P 500 earnings are energy-linked, compared to 38% for tech). That sector neglect may be exactly the setup a value-oriented investor would want.
6ïžâŁ The Best Stocks Right Now
1) Immunovant $IMVT up +35% on 5/20
Immunovant jumped 35% after its parent company Roivant Sciences released clinical trial results showing its rheumatoid arthritis drug produced strong positive outcomes. The trial data demonstrated meaningful efficacy for a drug in the autoimmune disease space, which carries one of the largest addressable markets in pharmaceutical development. Autoimmune diseases affect roughly 50 million Americans, and the demand for treatments beyond existing options (like Humira and newer JAK inhibitors) remains enormous.
Looking ahead, successful Phase 2 or Phase 3 data in autoimmune indications can be transformational. A drug that shows efficacy in rheumatoid arthritis often gets tested across related conditions (lupus, myasthenia gravis, ITP), expanding the TAM significantly. Immunovant has been a volatile biotech, but positive clinical data removes the binary âdoes it work?â risk and moves the story toward regulatory pathway and potential commercialization or partnership deals.
2) Applied Digital $APLD up +22% on 5/22
Applied Digital surged 22% after signing a 15-year lease on one of its AI data center facilities with a major hyperscaler, a deal that validates both its assets and its long-term revenue model. Applied Digital builds and operates high-performance computing data centers specifically designed to serve AI workloads.
A 15-year lease with a hyperscaler is almost as good as it gets in the data center business. It means predictable, contractual cash flows for over a decade from one of the most creditworthy customers on the planet. The AI infrastructure buildout (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta collectively spending up to $725B this year) is creating explosive demand for purpose-built data centers, and Applied Digital is directly in that path.
The long-term case only strengthens as AI capital expenditure continues growing.
3) Dell Technologies $DELL up +17% on 5/23
Dell Technologies advanced 17% ahead of earnings as analysts pointed to surging AI server demand as the primary catalyst. Dellâs enterprise infrastructure segment, which supplies AI servers (including Nvidia GPU-based systems) to corporations and governments, has become a major AI beneficiary in the B2B market.
Dell is one of the most direct ways to invest in enterprise AI adoption. Unlike consumer-facing AI plays, Dell sells directly to the companies deploying AI infrastructure at scale, from banks to hospitals to government agencies. Its PowerEdge AI server line has seen significant order growth as enterprises move from proof-of-concept AI projects to full production deployment.
With AI server refresh cycles expected to run for 3 to 5 more years at minimum, and enterprise AI adoption still in early innings, Dellâs infrastructure segment has significant growth ahead.
4) HP Inc. $HPQ up +15% on 5/23
HP rose 15% on optimism around its AI-driven personal computing strategy. HPâs push into AI PCs (devices with dedicated neural processing units for local AI tasks) represents a genuine upgrade cycle catalyst. The last major PC refresh cycle was COVID-driven (2020 to 2022). AI PCs could drive the next one, as businesses upgrade hardware to support AI assistants, local model inference, and enhanced productivity tools.
HP also manufactures commercial printing systems increasingly used in industrial and packaging applications, diversifying its revenue stream away from declining consumer ink revenue. The AI PC cycle is still in its very early stages.
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7ïžâŁ Todayâs High-Conviction Trade
Eastman Chemical Co. $EMN
Eastman Chemical is one of the largest specialty chemical companies in the world, producing materials for packaging, automotive, electronics, and consumer goods. You likely interact with Eastmanâs products daily without knowing it, whether through the packaging on your groceries, the plastic in your car, or the coating on your phone screen.
Shares of $EMN have rallied more than 12% over the past week after the stock found strong support at its 200-day simple moving average, a technical level closely watched by institutional investors. That bounce from a key technical support level often signals that the selling pressure has been absorbed and a new short-term uptrend is starting.
Todayâs options activity was heavily concentrated and clearly directional. A total of 5,837 calls traded versus just 29 puts, producing a call-to-put ratio of about 200 to 1. That is one of the most lopsided call-to-put ratios youâll see in a single session for a large-cap chemical company. The activity was concentrated in July 17 expiration calls at the $80 strike, where 5,600+ contracts traded at or near the asking price. Open interest was just 826 contracts entering the session, confirming that almost all of this was fresh, aggressive new positioning.
When someone (or multiple someones) comes in and buys 5,600+ call contracts at or near the offer on a stock that just bounced off a major technical level, theyâre making a directed bet that the rally continues to $80 and beyond by July expiration. Thatâs about a 5% move from current levels.
My read: Iâm bullish on $EMN here. The technical setup (bounce off 200-day support, 12% rally over the past week) combined with what is truly one of the most lopsided options flows youâll see in this space suggests informed, high-conviction positioning. Eastman has pricing power in specialty chemicals, meaningful exposure to U.S. infrastructure spending, and its recycling technology (molecular recycling of plastics) is a genuine long-term ESG growth driver. In a higher-inflation environment where industrial demand stays resilient, specialty chemicals tend to hold margins better than consumer-facing companies.
Watch for a continuation move toward $80+. Thatâs the options marketâs implied target. If the broader market stays constructive, $EMN has room to run.
A message from 9fin:
The best investors arenât smarter than you, they just have better information.
The investors who profit in a crisis donât have better instincts, they just have better information. They understand whatâs happening before everyone else does. And for most investors, that information has always been out of reach.
Tomorrow, on May 28th at 2pm ET, restructuring practitioners from Kirkland & Ellis, Pillsbury, and Sidley Austin are sharing it all for free.
Sign up for free before it fills up. Itâs this Thursday. Tomorrow.
Part III - The Playbook
8. Practical Advice & Lessons
9. One Thing To Remember
10. Ask Andrew (Subscriber Q&A)
8ïžâŁ Practical Advice & Lessons
Watch Two Numbers Every Single Week. The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.65% and the 30-year at 5.25% are the most important numbers in the market right now. HSBC called 4.65% on the 10-year the âdanger zoneâ threshold. BMO warned that a sustained 30-year above 5.25% would trigger a âdurable pullbackâ in equity valuations. We are within striking distance of both right now. Check them weekly. When either breaks above its threshold and holds, thatâs your signal that the bond market is tightening financial conditions in ways that will pressure stocks, real estate, and corporate borrowing simultaneously.
Treat Quantum as a Small Lottery Ticket. The U.S. government just invested $2B in quantum computing companies, taking equity stakes in IBM, D-Wave, Rigetti, and others. Federal backing removes the existential risk for these companies but doesnât accelerate the technology timeline. Jensen Huang says practical quantum is 20 years away. Bill Gates says 3. When the most informed people in tech disagree by 17 years, the right response is small exposure, not concentration. Allocate 1 to 5% to the government-backed names (IBM offers the most diversification) and treat it as a patient, decade-long bet.
Treat AI IPOs Like the Gold Rush, Not the Gold. SpaceX is targeting a $2T valuation with a company that lost $4.3B in Q1 alone. OpenAI is filing at roughly $852B in private market valuation. The biggest IPOs in history have historically been priced to perfection, not priced for you to profit. On average, IPOs underperform the S&P 500 in their first year. If you believe in AI, own the infrastructure: Nvidia, the hyperscalers, data center operators, and power grid companies. These businesses win regardless of which AI model wins. Thatâs the picks-and-shovels approach, and it works in every technology cycle.
Reduce Concentration in the Most Crowded Trade on the Planet. Three-quarters of global fund managers are long semiconductors right now. Thatâs the most concentrated institutional trade since 2001. When 75% of professional investors own the same position, any negative catalyst triggers simultaneous exits with no natural buyer on the other side. If semiconductors represent more than 70 to 80% of your portfolio, thatâs worth addressing. Trim the largest winners. You donât need to predict the top. You just need to not be over-exposed when the correction arrives.
Do not try to time the top. Manage your risk instead. No one rings a bell at the peak. But you can control your concentration, your cash level, and your exposure to the most crowded trades. That is enough to survive any correction.
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9ïžâŁ One Thing To Remember
Let me bring it back to the bond market, because thatâs where this weekâs story really lives.
In 2006, the yield curve inverted. Bond traders were pricing in something the equity markets werenât ready to hear: that the good times had a time limit. The S&P 500 hit new highs for another 18 months before it all came apart. Most investors who didnât pay attention to the bond market in 2006 and 2007 paid for it in 2008.
Iâm not telling you 2008 is coming. Iâm telling you the smoke detector is going off again. Not a four-alarm fire. A warning. And warnings are valuable precisely because they arrive early enough to act on.
The AI boom is real. Nvidiaâs $81.6B quarter is real. The quantum revolution is coming. SpaceX is a generational company. All of that is true. But the bond market, the consumer sentiment data, and the crowded trade in semiconductors are all telling you the same thing at once: the easy part of this bull market is over.
The investors who come out of this period ahead are the ones who hold both truths simultaneously. Theyâre invested in the AI revolution. And theyâre paying attention to the warning signs. Theyâre not all-in and theyâre not hiding in cash. Theyâre diversified, disciplined, and patient.
In my 20 years in finance, I watched a lot of people get rich in bull markets and give it all back in corrections. The difference between those who kept their wealth and those who didnât almost always came down to one thing: they knew what they owned and why. They had a plan before the volatility arrived.
If today's issue gave you real value, share it with one person who needs to see it. And if you're still reading for free, now's a good time to consider going paid. The trades, the deep dives, and the full analysis are worth every penny.
đ Ask Andrew: Subscriber Q&A
Q: Should I buy the SpaceX or OpenAI IPO?
The short answer: probably not, and hereâs why. SpaceX is targeting a $2T valuation on a company that lost $4.3B in Q1 2026. The IPO price is set by private market investors who got in before you. By the time you see a prospectus, the discovery premium is already gone. On average, IPOs underperform the S&P 500 in their first year. Facebook fell 50% after its 2012 IPO. Uber and Lyft spent years below their IPO prices. If you believe in AI, the smarter play is to own the infrastructure that powers all of it, including Nvidia, the hyperscalers, and data center operators, rather than betting on a single high-priced new entrant.
Q: What is quantum computing and should I invest in it?
Quantum computers use âqubitsâ that can hold multiple values simultaneously, making them potentially exponentially more powerful than traditional computers for specific tasks like drug discovery, financial risk modeling, and code-breaking. The U.S. government just invested $2B into nine quantum firms, taking equity stakes, which removes the existential survival risk for the largest players. But nobody agrees on the timeline. Estimates range from 3 years (Bill Gates) to 20 years (Jensen Huang). That uncertainty means this should be treated as speculative exposure, not a core position. A 1 to 5% allocation to IBM, D-Wave, or Rigetti is a reasonable long-duration lottery ticket on a genuinely transformative technology.
Q: Will the Fed cut rates this year?
Probably not. The April Fed minutes showed most officials leaning toward hikes if inflation persists. Markets now price in a potential hike by late 2026, not cuts. Warsh wants lower rates. The data says hold or hike. Until inflation cools meaningfully, do not expect relief.
đFinal Words:
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