💥Investing Insights & Market Analytics [Issue 28, Dec 2024]
💥PLUS: The Next Nvidia, Congress is Breaking Up the Biggest Insurance Monopolies, Millions Are Quitting Their Jobs, Stock Picks, Insider Trades, Technical Analysis, Interest Rate Predictions & More!
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📬In today’s issue, we discuss:
1) This Week's Market Analysis & Economic Outlook
2) Important Financial Events this Week
3) Key Charts & Numbers this Week
4) Money Lesson of the Week
🎯Premium Research & Analysis:
5) What I'm Investing in [Stock Picks]
6) Insider Trades (from Billionaires, Politicians and CEO's)
7) Trade of the Week [Options Trading]
8) Stocks to Watch (and Catalysts)
9) Real Estate & Housing Market Insights
10) Interest Rate Predictions (and Mortgage Rate Updates)
11) Short-term Technical Analysis [S&P 500, Tech Stocks, Bitcoin]
12) Market Sentiment & Economic Outlook
13) Important Economic Events this Week
14) Important Earning Announcements (and stocks to watch)1. This Week’s Market Analysis & Economic Outlook:
Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 27% and the Nasdaq is up 33%. This week:
The S&P 500 dropped slightly Friday due to investors worried about persistent inflation and the upward move in bond yields (ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.)
The Dow fell for a seventh straight day, its longest streak since February 2020.
The Nasdaq closed above 20,000 for the first time in a new ATH.
The U.S. Dollar rose to a 2.5-week high and is on track for its best week in a month. Emerging market currencies are getting crushed by the rising dollar.
Gold rose for a fourth straight day and is on pace for its biggest annual gain in 45 years.
US cattle futures hit a record high this week due to two threats that could impact beef imports:
Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada
A growing number of infestations by an insect known as the “New World screwworm.”
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
The Nasdaq’s new all-time high signals ongoing enthusiasm for tech and innovation. AI, cloud computing, and green energy are driving growth. The tech boom shows no signs of slowing. Consider ETFs that target AI, semiconductors, or green tech to capture these gains over time.
Gold rose for the fourth straight day and is on track for its best annual gain in 45 years. Why? Persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and a weakening global economy are driving demand.
Why it matters: Gold acts as a hedge against inflation and a safe haven during market volatility.
Tip: Add a small percentage (5-10%) of your portfolio to gold or gold ETFs to diversify and protect against risk.
Cattle futures soared due to threats to beef imports. Expect beef prices to rise at the grocery store.
👉 For daily insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads or BlueSky, and turn on notifications!
🤔How do you feel about the markets?
2. Important Financial Events this Week:
This week, we analyze
1) Millions of Americans Are Quitting Their Jobs
2) Congress is Pushing to Break Up the Biggest Insurance Monopolies
3) The Nasdaq 100 $QQQ has Been Rebalanced
4) The Next Nvidia
5) Elon Musk Becomes the First Person to Reach a $400 Billion Net Worth1️⃣ Millions of Americans Are Quitting Their Jobs
The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a notable uptick in the number of Americans quitting their jobs. The quit rate in the U.S. increased from 1.9% to 2.1%, indicating that more workers are leaving their jobs voluntarily.
Workers are tired of carrying the load for companies that don't value them. Here are the fastest-growing jobs in the U.S.:
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
Many workers have seen their workloads increase due to other employees leaving or being laid off, leading to burnout and dissatisfaction.
Next year we will see even more people leaving jobs if companies don't step up with better pay or flexibility. With the rise of remote work and the gig economy, workers have more flexibility and autonomy than ever before.
This is your wake-up call to evaluate your job situation. Are you happy? Are you paid enough? If not, maybe it's time to look elsewhere or even start something on your own.
If you're thinking of quitting, make sure it's for the right reasons. Look for roles where you can find purpose, flexibility, or better pay. Remember, you're in the driver's seat now.
2️⃣ Congress is Pushing to Break Up the Biggest Insurance Monopolies
Congress is pushing to break up the nation's biggest insurance monopolies after UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's murder last week. The Senate bill, named the Patients Before Monopolies Act, is sponsored by Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Josh Hawley (R-MO).
The proposed legislation targets a critical issue in healthcare: the concentration of power within a few massive insurance and pharmacy benefit management companies.
Currently, three companies (UnitedHealth Group, CVS Caremark, and Cigna's Express Scripts) control 80% of prescription management, creating a near-monopolistic environment that potentially harms consumers.
Here is a look at the insurance companies with the highest denial rates:
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
Many feel that the healthcare system is rigged against them, with insurance companies and pharmaceutical companies prioritizing profits over people. Whether these bills pass or not, they're a sign that the system might be ready for a change.
By breaking up the large PBMs, the bills aim to increase competition and reduce costs for consumers. This will lead to lower prescription prices and better access to care.
3️⃣ The Nasdaq 100 QQQ 0.00%↑ has Been Rebalanced
Stocks getting added:
Palantir (PLTR) - Massive 322% return in 2024
MicroStrategy (MSTR) - Insane 551% return in 2024
Stocks getting removed:
Moderna (MRNA) - Crashed 57% in 2024
Super Micro (SMCI) - Stock down 68% from March highs
Here is how the Nasdaq 100 QQQ 0.00%↑ performed against the S&P 500 over the last few years:
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
The companies added (like DoorDash and MongoDB) suggest that the market expects growth in digital logistics, cloud computing, and AI.
Palantir’s inclusion highlights the ongoing AI revolution. Its data-driven platforms are critical for governments and corporations. This aligns with other trends, like Nvidia’s dominance in AI chips and Axon Enterprise’s growth in AI-driven law enforcement tools.
4️⃣ The Next Nvidia?
On Friday, Broadcom AVGO 0.00%↑ soared more than 24% as the chipmaker discussed its “massive” opportunity in the artificial intelligence market during a quarterly earnings call, catapulting its market value past the $1 trillion mark.
Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said the company expects its custom AI chips will generate between $60 billion and $90 billion in revenue over the next three years from its three existing hyperscaler customers, whom the company did not name.
Tan reiterated his belief that each of the three hyperscalers will deploy 1 million clusters of its custom AI chips called XPUs by 2025.
While everyone's been talking about Nvidia, Broadcom has been quietly building powerful partnerships and developing custom AI chips.
Let's break down Broadcom's performance:
Total Revenue: $14.05 billion (51% year-over-year growth)
AI Revenue: $12.2 billion (a 220% increase)
Net Income: $4.32 billion
Stock Price Surge: Over 94% year-to-date
Broadcom $AVGO has brought in more than $30 billion of revenue from its Semcinoductor segment over the past year, which has increased from $17.3 billion in 2020.
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
Successful investing isn't about chasing the hottest trend. It's about understanding fundamental shifts in technology, recognizing genuine value creation, and having the patience to ride transformative waves.
As AI adoption accelerates, demand for cutting-edge chips will continue to rise, creating significant opportunities for investors.
Consider ETFs focused on AI and technology, like the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ).
5️⃣ Elon Musk Becomes the First Person to Reach a $400 Billion Net Worth
Musk's net worth has been driven by several factors, including the remarkable performance of Tesla's stock, which has surged by nearly 71% this year. The electric vehicle maker's shares have been fueled by investors' optimism about the company's future prospects, particularly under the incoming Trump administration. Investors see Tesla as a leader in the EV market and renewable energy revolution.
SpaceX, Musk's rocket company, has also played a significant role in creating his wealth. The company's valuation has soared to roughly $350 billion, driven by a recent deal that saw investors purchase as much as $1.25 billion of insider shares. SpaceX is a dominant force in the commercial space industry, and its contracts with NASA and private enterprises are reshaping space exploration and satellite communications (a growing market fueled by global connectivity).
Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI, more than doubled its valuation in November, climbing to $50 billion. The company’s focus on advanced AI solutions has captured the imagination of investors, especially in a world increasingly driven by AI-powered innovations.
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
This highlights the importance of investing in innovative companies that are driving technological advancements. Tesla, SpaceX, and Neuralink are all leaders in their respective fields, and their success has been driven by their ability to disrupt traditional industries.
Other important headlines this week:
New York Amazon workers threaten to strike right before Christmas
Donald Trump said the U.S. is going to become the global leader for cryptocurrency
Michael Saylor's Microstrategy now owns over 2% of the entire Bitcoin supply.
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3. Important Charts & Numbers This Week:
Small Cap Stocks $IWM are underperforming the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ at a level not seen since the peak of the Dot Com Bubble:
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
The chart highlights risk appetite. Investors tend to flock to safer, established, and tech-dominated large-cap stocks when economic uncertainty increases. That explains why the Nasdaq 100 surged while small-cap stocks lagged—large-cap tech (think Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, etc.) has been seen as the "safe haven" for growth.
Historically, when the underperformance of small caps hits extremes like this, it has been followed by a reversal. That means small caps could be setting up for a comeback in the years ahead.
Cattle prices jump to an all-time high:
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
Cattle prices hitting all-time highs is a clear signal of tight supply and strong demand. Shrinking herd sizes, rising feed costs, and operational challenges have reduced the supply of cattle, while consumer demand for beef remains steady.
Rising beef prices may spill over into other goods like chicken and pork as consumers look for cheaper alternatives.
S&P 500 Value Stocks have declined for 10 consecutive days, the longest losing streak in history:
💡Andrew’s thoughts:
When value stocks fall, it’s not just the price that’s dropping—it’s also the confidence investors have in the broader economy. These stocks are typically found in industries that are seen as stable or essential. A consistent drop suggests fears of slower economic growth or reduced consumer spending. If the downward trend in value stocks continues, it will trigger a chain reaction, where fear spreads to other parts of the market.
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4. Money Lesson of the Week:
Making your child a tax-free millionaire is simpler than you might think. With a solid investment plan and the power of compound interest, you can set your child up for financial success. Here's a step-by-step guide to making your child a tax-free millionaire:
Open a 529 savings plan at birth – This is a college savings account, and it comes with some great tax benefits. The money you invest grows tax-free, which is crucial in the long run.
Invest $50 every month into an S&P 500 index fund – The S&P 500 is a collection of the 500 biggest U.S. companies, and historically, it’s given a solid average return of about 10.5% per year after inflation. A small, steady monthly investment like $50 adds up over time.
At age 18, they should have $35,000 invested – Thanks to compound growth, your $50 a month will snowball into $35,000 by the time your child turns 18. Compound interest is your secret weapon here: it means the money you earn starts earning its own money, and the growth accelerates as time passes.
Convert this to a Roth IRA – A Roth IRA is a retirement account where money grows tax-free, and the best part? Withdrawals after age 59½ are also tax-free. This move locks in tax-free growth for your child’s future.
Leave it alone and stop adding to it – No need to add more money or touch it—just let time and compound interest do their magic.
By age 50, this should grow to $1.2 million – Assuming average market returns, by the time your child is 50, that initial $35,000 investment could turn into $1.2 million. That's the power of compound interest.
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5. What I’m Investing in [Stock Picks]:
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
2025 looks like it could be a breakthrough year for AI, and the companies leading the charge in innovation—whether in hardware, cloud computing, or autonomous technology—are likely to outperform.
The key to success in 2025 and beyond will be identifying the companies that not only lead in AI but also have the financial strength, vision, and adaptability to navigate the fast-evolving market. Stick with the innovators, keep an eye on emerging trends, and always be prepared for volatility—AI is a high-growth, high-risk sector, but the rewards for the right investments could be massive.
AMD has been gaining ground in the AI market, particularly in the data center GPU space. While Nvidia controls about 88% of the GPU market, AMD is becoming a serious player thanks to its MI300 accelerators, which have been growing AMD’s data center services at a similar rate to Nvidia’s, despite Nvidia’s slowdown in growth over recent quarters.
AMD’s MI300 is a strong competitor to Nvidia's offerings, and AMD’s roadmap for the next few years is even more compelling. With the upcoming release of the MI325X next year, designed to compete directly with Nvidia’s new Blackwell GPUs, AMD is signaling its ability to challenge Nvidia’s dominance. If AMD can continue innovating and capturing market share, it could carve out a more significant position in the booming AI infrastructure market. This presents an opportunity for investors to buy AMD at a relatively undervalued price, as it’s often overshadowed by Nvidia’s more publicized successes.
Key Catalysts:
Positioned to capture incremental market share in AI infrastructure
Growing data center GPU capabilities
Innovative product pipeline - Strategic technological roadmap with MI325X and MI400 chipsets
Undervalued compared to market leader Nvidia
Key Takeaway: AMD is a strong buy for investors who want exposure to AI innovation and competition in the GPU market. With strategic product releases, AMD is poised to take incremental market share from Nvidia, making it a great long-term growth play.
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Eli Lilly has become the biggest drugmaker in the world, driven by the success of its drug Tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Eli Lilly’s focus on chronic diseases like diabetes and obesity addresses massive, growing markets. Its innovative pipeline creates opportunities for sustained growth over decades.
Pipeline Strength: 24 late-stage programs, including treatments for sleep apnea, diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular drugs.
Strong Financial Performance: Lilly's sales of key drugs like Taltz, Verzenio, and Humalog have shown strong year-over-year growth.
Eli Lilly is a leader in developing new and important medicines, which makes it a great long-term investment. With sales already soaring and FDA approval for additional indications on the horizon, Lilly's pipeline is not just robust; it's transformative. The company's strategic investments in R&D and its strong market position make it a beacon in the healthcare sector.
With a dominant market position and a pipeline full of promising drugs, Eli Lilly is set to continue its growth trajectory. This is a stock that could deliver strong returns for years to come. I’m investing during drug approval milestones or dips, as Lilly’s leadership in obesity and diabetes solutions will drive long-term returns.
Visa (V)
Visa is the world's largest payment processor, benefiting from the shift to digital payments and cross-border transaction growth, with a strong moat in the payment processing space. They make money every time someone uses a Visa card.
Its strong financials and market leadership make it a safe bet for investors looking for consistent growth and high returns. Its financial performance has been excellent, with strong revenue growth and high margins. Visa's operating margin reached 67% in the fourth quarter of 2024, leading to a record $4.8 billion in quarterly net income.
As cash usage continues to decline globally, Visa is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing shift towards digital payments. Digital payment growth:
16% payment volume growth
22% cross-border transaction increase
67% operating margins
Strategic investments in blockchain and real-time payments
6. Insider Trades from Billionaires, Politicians and CEO’s:
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM 0.00%↑
On December 6, 2024, it was reported that Ro Khanna, a Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives, disclosed a stock purchase in Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) worth $50,000 to $100,000.
CIBC is a leading Canadian bank offering various financial services, including personal banking, wealth management, and investment banking. This investment indicates confidence in the bank's future prospects, especially given its strong position in the Canadian banking sector and its expanding digital services.
NextEra Energy NEE 0.00%↑
On December 6, 2024, Ro Khanna disclosed another purchase—this time in NextEra Energy, valued at $50,000 to $100,000.
NextEra Energy is a leader in renewable energy, specializing in wind and solar power. This insider buying signals optimism in the company's long-term strategy and ability to capitalize on the growing demand for clean energy.
Gladstone Alternative Income Fund $GAIIX & $GAIAX
On December 12, 2024, and December 9, 2024, David Gladstone, CEO of the Gladstone Alternative Income Fund, made two substantial purchases of shares in the fund. He bought $5 million in total.
The fund is known for its alternative investment strategies, focusing on real estate and private equity. This significant insider buying suggests that the fund is poised for growth, possibly due to strategic investments.
Tko Group Holdings $TKO
On December 13, 2024, Ariel Emanuel, CEO and 10% owner of Tko Group Holdings, purchased shares totaling $48.1 million.
Tko Group is the parent company of UFC and WWE, specializing in combat sports entertainment. The company has been focusing on monetizing its growing global audience through media rights, pay-per-view events, and sponsorship deals.
Emanuel’s significant purchase demonstrates his confidence in Tko Group’s future growth. The company is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the increasing global demand for live sports and entertainment. Partnerships, streaming deals, and international expansion are likely key drivers of its long-term success.
United Homes Group $UHG
On December 13, 2024, Michael P. Nieri, Executive Chairman of the Board and a 10% owner of United Homes Group, purchased shares totaling $4.5 million.
The company focuses on developing residential and commercial properties, with a strong emphasis on sustainable building practices. This insider buying suggests that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for affordable housing.
7. Trade of the Week [Options Flow Activity]:
Bullish Activity on Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. LW 0.00%↑
There's been a significant increase in call options trading for Lamb Weston, with over 7,162 contracts traded, which is 32 times more than the average daily volume. The increased call volume indicates strong interest in Lamb Weston.
Most of this trading involved a specific call vertical strategy for options expiring on January 17, 2025, suggesting traders are becoming more bullish after the stock's recent pullback from a peak price of $70.00, targeting a price range between $75-$85.
Lamb Weston Holdings is a company that supplies frozen potato products to restaurants and retailers globally.
Bearish Activity on KE Holdings Inc. $BEKE
There's been a surge in put options trading for KE Holdings, with over 17,282 contracts traded, which is 13 times the average daily put volume. Most of this activity is from a large purchase of the April 17th, 2025 $18.00 put option. This suggests that traders are bearish on the stock and expect it to fall below $18.00 by the expiration date.
This significant put volume suggests growing market skepticism about the company's short-term performance. KE Holdings has been in the news due to regulatory scrutiny in China, which has led to volatility in the stock, reflecting broader concerns about the Chinese real estate sector's stability and growth prospects.
KE Holdings, also known as Beike, is a Chinese platform for housing transactions and services.
8. Stocks to Watch (and Catalysts):
Friday 12/13 - Broadcom AVGO 0.00%↑
Broadcom, a leading semiconductor maker, saw its shares jump 24% after reporting fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations. The company's AI revenue more than tripled for the year, pushing its market cap above $1 trillion for the first time. CEO Hock Tan announced that Broadcom is developing custom AI chips with three major cloud customers, which has driven investor enthusiasm. The company's strong earnings and strategic partnerships position it well for long-term growth, making it an attractive investment for those looking to capitalize on the AI revolution.
Friday 12/13 - Tesla TSLA 0.00%↑
Tesla, the electric vehicle maker, gained about 4% after Reuters reported that President-elect Donald Trump’s team recommended ending a car-crash reporting requirement. This news is significant for Tesla, as the company has reported the most crashes under the program, and CEO Elon Musk has been vocal about his dislike for the requirement. The potential regulatory change could reduce compliance costs and improve Tesla's operational efficiency, making it a positive catalyst for the stock.
Friday 12/13 - Walgreens Boots Alliance $WBA
Walgreens Boots Alliance, the pharmacy giant, jumped 5% after Sky News reported that Sycamore Partners is lining up funding from banks for a buyout of the company. Although the stock is still below its peak level from earlier in the week, the potential buyout could provide a significant boost to Walgreens' share price. The company's strong brand and extensive retail presence make it an attractive acquisition target.
Friday 12/13 - RH RH 0.00%↑
RH, the luxury furniture retailer, surged nearly 17%, reaching levels not seen since January 2022. The rally came after RH forecasted fourth-quarter revenue growth of 18% to 20% from a year earlier, citing "an acceleration of demand." The company also profited in the third quarter, indicating strong financial performance.
Friday 12/13 - TaskUs TASK 0.00%↑
TaskUs, an outsourcing company, surged 15% following Morgan Stanley’s upgrade to overweight from equal weight. The bank highlighted TaskUs' "industry-leading" margins and "competitive moat," noting that the company should benefit from AI advancements. TaskUs' strong fundamentals and potential to leverage AI make it an attractive investment for those looking to capitalize on the outsourcing industry's growth. Investors should consider TaskUs as a long-term hold, given its competitive advantages and potential for AI-driven growth.
Friday 12/13 - Upstart Holdings UPST 0.00%↑
Upstart Holdings, a lending platform, popped 9% after an upgrade to buy from hold at Needham. The investment firm noted that Upstart has achieved a proper balance in funding and strengthened its balance sheet after refinancing some debt.
Friday 12/13 - Ciena CIEN 0.00%↑
Ciena, a networking equipment company, saw its stock price jump almost 6% a day after posting its best performance since August 2023. The company beat quarterly revenue expectations and lifted its revenue guidance for fiscal 2025, although it fell below Wall Street’s earnings expectations. Bank of America upgraded the stock to a buy from neutral, citing stabilizing demand and accelerated cloud and AI momentum.
Friday 12/13 - Penn Entertainment $PENN
Penn Entertainment, an online sports betting company, popped 5% after being upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan. The bank sees a path to aggregate growth ahead as Penn Entertainment’s capital projects begin to bear fruit.
Thursday 12/12 - Warner Bros. Discovery WBD 0.00%↑
Warner Bros. Discovery, a legacy media company, surged 15% after announcing plans to restructure and split its business into linear and streaming segments. This strategic move aims to streamline operations and focus on high-growth areas, which could drive long-term value for shareholders.
Thursday 12/12 - Celsius Holdings CELH 0.00%↑
Celsius Holdings, an energy drink maker, surged 5% after JPMorgan initiated coverage at an overweight rating. JPMorgan cited lighter inventory and a reacceleration of growth as catalysts for the stock's potential rebound. Celsius Holdings' strong brand and growing market share in the energy drink sector make it an attractive investment for those looking to capitalize on the beverage industry's growth.
Thursday 12/12 - Riot Platforms RIOT 0.00%↑
Riot Platforms, a bitcoin miner, jumped nearly 10% after The Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a "significant position" in the company. Starboard Value is pushing for Riot to convert some of its Bitcoin mining facilities into space for big data center users, which could drive long-term value for shareholders. The company's potential to pivot to data-center operations and capitalize on the growing demand for data-center space make it an attractive investment in the technology sector.
Wednesday 12/11 - GE Vernova GEV 0.00%↑
GE Vernova, an energy equipment maker, jumped 5% after announcing it would initiate a dividend of 25 cents per share and an initial $6 billion share repurchase authorization. The company also raised its 2028 margins estimate to 14% from 10%, indicating strong financial performance and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Wednesday 12/11 - GameStop GME 0.00%↑
GameStop, a video game retailer, shot up 8% after swinging to an unexpected profit in the latest quarter. The company reported a net income of $17.4 million in the third quarter, compared with a net loss of $3.1 million during the same period last year.
Wednesday 12/11 - Patterson Companies PDCO 0.00%↑
Patterson, a dental and animal health company, soared 36% on the back of news that it would be acquired by Patient Square Capital. The healthcare investment firm will pay $31.35 per share, and the deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of Patterson’s 2025 fiscal year.
Wednesday 12/11 - Stitch Fix SFIX 0.00%↑
Stitch Fix, an online personal styling company, surged 44% after raising its fiscal second-quarter revenue outlook. The company now expects revenue in the current quarter of $290 million to $300 million, above analysts' expectations of $283.5 million. Stitch Fix also raised the top end of its full-year revenue outlook and now expects $1.14 billion to $1.18 billion, up from its previous estimate of $1.11 billion to $1.16 billion.
Wednesday 12/11 - Wolverine World Wide WWW 0.00%↑
Wolverine World Wide, which owns the Merrell and Saucony shoemaker brands, gained 7% after Stifel upgraded the company to buy from hold. The firm said Wolverine World Wide's earnings growth potential appears compelling and that next year is an "inflection year" for the stock.
Wednesday 12/11 - JetBlue $JBLU
JetBlue, the airline, advanced 11% after revealing plans to add domestic first-class seats to planes that do not have the existing top-tier Mint class, beginning in 2026. This initiative is part of JetBlue's long-term plan to appeal to premium customers and return to profitability.
Wednesday 12/11 - Figs FIGS 0.00%↑
Figs, a medical apparel maker, surged 22% after The Wall Street Journal reported receiving a takeover bid from Story3 Capital Partners. The private equity firm valued Figs at more than $1 billion and offered $6 each for the common shares outstanding of Figs it did not already own.
Wednesday 12/11 - Rigetti Computing $RGTI
Rigetti Computing, a developer of quantum integrated circuits for quantum computers, advanced more than 7% , adding to its 45% surge from the previous session. The stock got a boost after Google said its new chip, Willow, achieved a new breakthrough with quantum computing. Rigetti Computing's involvement in the quantum computing field and potential for long-term growth make it an attractive investment for those looking to capitalize on the technology sector's advancements. Given its innovative quantum computing solutions and expanding market opportunities, investors should consider Rigetti Computing as a potential growth stock.
Wednesday 12/11 - Skillsoft $SKIL
Skillsoft, a learning platform, jumped 8% after posting $137.2 million in third-quarter revenue, above the consensus forecast of $130 million from analysts surveyed by FactSet. The company also raised its full-year revenue outlook, indicating strong financial performance and potential for long-term growth.
Tuesday 12/11 - Alphabet $GOOGL
Alphabet, the online search giant, launched its latest quantum chip, called Willow, leading shares 5% higher. The company said this marks a major breakthrough in the field of quantum computing, which is considered the next frontier for many tech companies. Alphabet's involvement in quantum computing and potential for long-term growth make it an attractive investment for those looking to capitalize on the technology sector's advancements, given its innovative quantum computing solutions and expanding market opportunities.
Tuesday 12/11 - Alaska Air Group $ALK
Alaska Air Group, the airline carrier, soared more than 13% after issuing better-than-expected guided fourth-quarter results and announcing plans to grow profits by $1 billion through 2027. The company also plans to launch nonstop flights next year to Tokyo and Seoul from its home hub of Seattle.
👉For more insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads, and turn on notifications.
9. Real Estate & Housing Market Update:
Real Estate Market this Week:
Mortgage rates dropped to 6.6%, which is great news for buyers and sellers. This decline has boosted consumer home purchase sentiment, with many expecting further rate drops. Lower rates mean more buying power for homebuyers and potentially higher demand for sellers.
Regional Markets: The Northeast is showing strength, with Springfield, Massachusetts, and the New York metro area leading the pack. But looking ahead to 2025, the Sun Belt is expected to shine. Markets like Colorado Springs, Miami, and Virginia Beach are poised for significant growth. These areas have younger populations and more buyers using VA and FHA loans, which require lower down payments.
Market Predictions: Markets in the Sun Belt, like Colorado Springs, are expected to lead in transaction volumes and price growth in 2025 due to younger demographics and robust construction activity.
There is now a 98.5% chance of a 25 bps interest rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting:
👉For more insights, follow me on Twitter/ X or Instagram Threads or BlueSky, and turn on notifications.
10. Interest Rate Predictions: Rates will Stay the Same
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recently met expectations, so there isn't much reason to expect further rate declines. The Fed is set to meet on December 18, where it is widely anticipated they will cut the Fed Funds rate by 0.25%.
Current economic indicators, including employment and inflation data, suggest that rates will remain steady. As the year ends, markets typically slow down, and significant rate changes are unlikely until the new year.
The 30-year mortgage is now 6.95%, which is +0.27 higher today than last week, -0.06 lower than last month, and +0.13 higher than last year:
11. Short-Term Technical Analysis [S&P 500, Tech Stocks, Bitcoin]:
S&P 500 SPY 0.00%↑ (Short-term, 1-3 months): Positive
The S&P 500 is moving up in a "rising trend channel," which means it's been going higher over time. This shows that investors feel good about the market and expect it to keep going up. Right now, nothing is stopping it from getting higher. I think the S&P 500 looks like a good bet for the next few months.
The U.S. economy has recently shown signs of growth, with lower inflation rates and hints that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates. This will make stocks more attractive because cheaper borrowing costs mean companies can expand more easily, and investors can get better investment returns.
Tech Stocks QQQ 0.00%↑ (Short-term, 1-3 months): Positive
Like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq-100 is also in a rising trend. This means people keep buying it at higher prices, showing they trust in its growth. There's no big obstacle stopping it from going higher, making it look positive for the next one to six months.
The Nasdaq-100 is full of tech companies, and recent news about AI advancements and companies like Nvidia or Apple doing well could drive this trend.
Bitcoin $BTC (Short-term, 1-3 months): Positive
Bitcoin's price is on an upward path, showing that more people want to buy it. It recently broke through a resistance level at $67,241. However, we need to watch the volume - how much Bitcoin is being traded. If less Bitcoin changes hands at high prices (low volume at tops) and more at lower prices (high volume at bottoms), it might mean the up-trend isn't as strong as it looks. Still, Bitcoin looks good for the medium term, with support at about $70,000 if it falls.
Bitcoin offers a chance for high returns if you're willing to accept the volatility.
12. Market Sentiment & Economic Outlook:
Fear & Greed Index = Neutral
As of December 16, the Fear and Greed Index stands at 50, indicating a neutral sentiment in the market. This suggests that investors are neither overly fearful nor greedy at this moment. However, the significant change is the drop from 69 a year ago to the current level, indicating a shift from greed to a more neutral stance.
AAII Sentiment Survey — 6-Month Outlook = Neutral
In the latest survey, bullish sentiment decreased by 5 percentage points to 43.3%, while neutral sentiment rose to 25.0%, and bearish sentiment increased slightly to 31.7%. This shift indicates a growing sense of caution among investors.
Despite bullish sentiment remaining above its historical average of 37.5%, the increase in neutral and bearish responses suggests that many investors are uncertain about future market performance.
Economic Indicators & Market Signals = Neutral
The current market and economic indicators present a mixed picture.
On the positive side, the decreasing VIX and increasing GDP suggest a stable and growing economy.
However, the increasing unemployment rate, rising inflation, and decreasing consumer sentiment indicate potential challenges.
13. Important Economic Events this Week:
S&P Global Services PMI data - Monday
This measures the performance of the services sector, which is a big part of the economy.
A strong reading can signal growth and boost investor confidence, while a weak reading might raise concerns about an economic slowdown.
November Retail Sales data - Tuesday
This data shows how much consumers spent in November.
Strong retail sales indicate healthy consumer spending, which drives economic growth. If spending is weak, it could signal trouble for businesses and the economy.
Fed Interest Rate Decision - Wednesday
The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates.
A rate cut is expected, which can lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. This can encourage spending and investment, supporting economic growth.
Q3 2024 GDP Data - Thursday
This report shows how much the economy grew in the third quarter.
Strong GDP growth suggests a healthy economy, while weak growth can indicate trouble ahead.
November Existing Home Sales data - Thursday
This data reveals how many homes were sold in November.
A rise in home sales can show a strong housing market, which is important for overall economic health.
November PCE Inflation Data - Friday
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index measures inflation based on consumer spending.
High inflation could lead to more interest rate hikes, while low inflation might reassure investors.
14. Important Earnings Announcements this Week:
The most anticipated earnings releases for the week of December 16, 2024, are Micron Technology $MU, Nike $NKE, Carnival $CCL, FedEx $FDX, Red Cat $RCAT, Accenture $ACN, BlackBerry $BB, Lennar $LEN, Darden Restaurants $DRI, Cintas $CTAS.
Here’s what you need to know for each stock:
Micron Technology ($MU)
Rising demand for AI-related memory chips is a bullish driver, but geopolitical risks, such as China's product bans, pose challenges. Watch for updates on memory pricing recovery, inventory levels, and AI-related demand growth.Nike ($NKE)
Strength in direct-to-consumer sales and improved inventory management are positives, but weak U.S. consumer spending and foreign exchange headwinds remain risks. Look for updates on holiday sales performance and growth in China for bullish signals.Carnival ($CCL)
Higher bookings and strong demand for 2025 cruises are bullish, but high debt levels and sensitivity to fuel prices are concerns. Watch forward bookings and debt reduction updates to assess future growth potential.FedEx ($FDX)
Cost-cutting measures and strong e-commerce demand are positive catalysts, but risks include global economic softness and rising fuel prices. Pay attention to the guidance on shipping volumes and margin improvements.Red Cat ($RCAT)
Growth in military drone contracts provides a bullish thesis, but the stock remains speculative due to a lack of profitability. Watch for new contract wins or updates on military adoption for potential upside.Accenture ($ACN)
Expansion in AI and cloud services drives growth, with recent large contracts adding to the bullish case. Risks include slower IT spending. Look for updates on AI-driven growth and digital transformation initiatives.BlackBerry ($BB)
The shift to cybersecurity and connected car solutions is promising, but slow revenue growth and high competition are challenges. Updates on adopting connected car software (QNX) and cybersecurity revenue are key.Lennar ($LEN)
Strong housing demand and limited inventory are bullish, but rising mortgage rates could pressure future sales. Focus on housing market trends and Lennar’s ability to maintain pricing power in this environment.Darden Restaurants ($DRI)
Strong same-store sales growth and efficient operations support the bullish case, but rising food costs could impact margins. Monitor updates on holiday dining trends and pricing strategies.Cintas ($CTAS)
Solid demand and strong pricing power make the outlook positive, but a potential economic slowdown poses risks. Watch for guidance on demand resilience and margin expansion in upcoming earnings.
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