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RealObsessed's avatar

Great read! Appreciate the thorough write up. On housing - if more folks are staying put and saving instead of leveling up; isn’t this propping up the economy? More and more folks in my hmarket are hanging onto their inflated salaries and pumping s&p stocks. PNW and Northeast real estate are still seeing SFH go above asking. I think the Florida / Texas hype is gone since RTO is back in play which brings national averages down. Real estate continues to be hyper localized.

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Andrew Lokenauth's avatar

Thank you! I think behavioral economics explains the lock-in effect. People hate losing more than they love gaining. Your 3% mortgage feels like free money compared to today’s rates. Loss aversion drives housing decisions.

Mortgage rate locks create artificial scarcity. 85% of homeowners have rates below 4% while new buyers face 7%. This two-tier market can’t last forever. Something breaks by 2026.

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